will health care bill affect November elections?

[RecycleMichael]

The republicans on FoxNews say that the passage of the health care bill will result in the most complete election turnout of incumbents in the history of American elections.

This writer on Yahoo says that the way the republicans acted during the debate will actually cost them more seats.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_ts1298

"Baby killer" shouter steps forward, highlights internal GOP dilemma           
Mysterious shout of 'baby killer!' puzzles House members, media Stories from around the Web The Starting Point: Sandstorms, speed records & immigration reform Political effects of health care win uncertain for Dems Live blog of the House vote on health care reform House passes second historic health care vote House passes health care reform in historic vote.Last night, as the clock approached midnight and the long House debate on health care reform was finally winding down, Rep. Bart Stupak stepped to the microphone on the floor of the chamber to deliver his remarks. As the famously anti-abortion congressman was denouncing a measure to kill the deal he'd struck earlier in the day for President Obama to issue an executive order reiterating that no federal funds would pay for abortions, a voice suddenly shouted "Baby killer!" from the GOP side of the House floor.
Today, after a flurry of media questions about the identity of the shouter, GOP Texas Rep. Randy Neugebauer stepped forward as the offending shouter—though he stipulated he actually shouted, "It's a baby killer," in reference to the unamended health care bill, and has since apologized to Stupak for any suggestion that he personally was responsible for the killing of babies.

Neugebauer's confession will help speed the episode's exit from the news cycle—particularly once President Obama signs the health care bill into law and Congress moves on to fresh controversies. But the "Baby killer furor" highlights a far more serious, long-term political dilemma for the Republicans: how to appear to be a respectable Party capable of governing while also providing political shelter for the highly motivated, though vocally disruptive, protest wing of the party associated with the Tea Party movement. While many commentators are forecasting trouble ahead for Democrats identified with the health care bill, the GOP faces some major issues of its own.

Just look at the past weekend: Thousands of Tea Party protesters descended on Washington in an attempt to "kill the bill." It was an impressive turnout for a quickly organized protest —but coverage of the event soon was dominated by reports that some demonstrators had hurled racial and homophobic epithets at Democratic lawmakers as they entered the Capitol.

Nor were the passionate displays limited to the protestors outside. Even after admonishing members of his caucus to "behave like grown-ups" during the epic health care floor debate, Majority Leader John Boehner let loose with a cry of "Hell no!" in his own fiery floor speech denouncing the Democrats' handling of the  legislative process.

Also noteworthy: Kentucky Congressman Geoff Davis unveiled a flag on the Capitol balcony featuring the "Don't Tread on Me" slogan famously used by past revolutionary militia groups.

The alliance between conservative lawmakers and movement activists was famously sealed in the wake of Rep. Joe Wilson's now-famous "You lie!" shout during an address by President Obama to both chambers of Congress. The incident earned some tut-tutting from party and congressional leaders, but Wilson saw his fundraising numbers skyrocket with Tea Party donations after his outburst on the floor. Additionally, Wilson's Senate colleague from South Carolina, Jim DeMint—who authored a book denouncing "America's slide into socialism" —also sought to amp up activist support with the challenge to make health care into the Obama administration's Waterloo, an assertion the left is having some fun with on his Facebook page today.

But one prominent conservative commentator—former Bush speechwriter David Frum—argues that last night's vote was an enormous political reversal for Republicans. Saying that the Republicans went for "all the marbles" by unanimously opposing the bill and refusing to compromise in any way—fueling activist fury at the same time—he writes:

So today's defeat for free-market economics and Republican values is a huge win for the conservative entertainment industry. Their listeners and viewers will now be even more enraged, even more frustrated, even more disappointed in everybody except the responsibility-free talkers on television and radio. For them, it's mission accomplished. For the cause they purport to represent, it's Waterloo all right: ours.

Frum's assessment actually echoes a warning call that conservative writer William Kristol advanced in a famous memo preaching hard opposition to President Clinton's 1993 health care reform bill. Kristol then cautioned that party leaders couldn't afford to let any version of the measure pass, lest the provisions of the bill create powerful new political alliances for the Democrats, as had happened after the passage of Social Security and Medicare in prior battles over federal entitlements. (It should be noted that this morning Kristol appears to be backing away from his past prediction of GOP doom and gloom if the Democrats successfully passed health care reform.)

Kristol's strategy of going all-in on opposing health care proved a political winner then: GOP opposition—combined with internal Democratic political tensions—defeated Clinton's bill and set the stage for the 1994 Republican Revolution. In losing the vote this time out via a strategy of strict opposition, Frum argues that the GOP has left itself little in the way of legislative achievement to run on in future campaigns, an assessment at least one other conservative commentator agrees with. Liberal pundits, meanwhile, are offering tongue-in-cheek accolades to the "unsung hero of comprehensive reform": Republican leaders who refused to work to make the bill more moderate, thus unifying the fractious Democrats.

In many ways, the dilemma faced by modern Republicans is similar to the one Democrats faced in the '60s and '70s with the Vietnam-era anti-war movement. While the confrontation-minded (and media-friendly) activists garnered headlines and caused widespread disruption, the Democrats succumbed to damaging leadership divisions on the war—and in the process, allowed Republicans to tag them with sinister hippie and New Left leanings ever since. The challenge for Republicans going forward is to avoid the same undertow from its activist base—to establish majorities in Washington and not let the unsavory aspects of the fringe haunt them for decades to come.

In the short term, though, the GOP doesn't seem to be in much of a mood for introspection—at least not to judge by the remarks of the party's 2008 standard bearer, Arizona Sen. John McCain, who had previously made a mark as a compromise-minded lawmaker. "There will be no cooperation for the rest of the year," McCain said during an interview with The Hill. "[The Democrats] have poisoned the well in what they've done and how they've done it."

– Brett Michael Dykes is a national affairs writer for Yahoo! News.

[nathanm]

"There will be no cooperation for the rest of the year," McCain said during an interview with The Hill. "[The Democrats] have poisoned the well in what they've done and how they've done it."

He seems to be under the mistaken impression that there was Republican cooperation prior to this vote. 

I think that in the short term, the bill will be a win for Democrats, not because it's a good bill, but because it's not anything like what the Republican fringe has been claiming it is. When people realize that, they'll get comfortable with it. Now, in several years when the mandate kicks in, people might not be so pleased with it.

Also, having the health care bill done means the Democrats can move on to things like financial regulation and other good ideas the electorate wants action on. If the Republicans hold to McCain's promise, they will look like fools standing in opposition to regulating the too-big-to-fail banks.

And I think the charge that using reconciliation to pass the "sidecar" will also lack teeth if the Democrats can explain that's how they got rid of much of the blatant pork, like the buyoffs for Landrieu and Nelson.

[Gaspar]

I think both sides acted poorly.  I think their will be a mighty flushing sound in the upcoming election.

Congressional approval hit 11% today.

This is historic change. We woke up with a far more parental form of government this morning.  I am hopeful that the passage of this bill will help the very people it was designed to aid, however I fear that it will be as successful as every other government entitlement program.

A small amount of heroin leads to a lifetime of addiction.

[nathanm]

I think both sides acted poorly.  I think their will be a mighty flushing sound in the upcoming election.

Congressional approval hit 11% today.

This is historic change. We woke up with a far more parental form of government this morning.  I am hopeful that the passage of this bill will help the very people it was designed to aid, however I fear that it will be as successful as every other government entitlement program.

A small amount of heroin leads to a lifetime of addiction.

You would do well to wait for a poll that actually polled people after the health care bill passed before deciding what it's done to Congress' approval rating.

I fail to see how this is a big expansion of government. More like a big expansion of health insurance companies.

[RecycleMichael]

I guess I don't get why so many republicans act as if a big central government will destroy America.

The federal government is already in almost all parts of our lives already. Why is this the straw that breaks America's back?

[Gaspar]

You would do well to wait for a poll that actually polled people after the health care bill passed before deciding what it's done to Congress' approval rating.

I fail to see how this is a big expansion of government. More like a big expansion of health insurance companies.

You may be right. 

[Gaspar]

I guess I don't get why so many republicans act as if a big central government will destroy America.

The federal government is already in almost all parts of our lives already. Why is this the straw that breaks America's back?

There is no single straw, it's the incremental creeping.  The slouching towards the inevitable.

I frequently site this quotation because even the Socialist Norman Thomas understood how this works. 

The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism, but under the name of liberalism, they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program until one day America will be a socialist nation without ever knowing how it happened. – Norman Thomas

President Obama, Sebelius, and a host of others keep flashing the claim that Conservatives are against healthcare reform, and any reasonable person knows this to be untrue.  When I hear such accusations I see the trappings. 

Socialism, like the ancient ideas from which it springs, confuses the distinction between government and society. As a result of this, every time we object to a thing being done by government, the socialists conclude that we object to its being done at all. – Frederic Bastiat

[nathanm]

President Obama, Sebelius, and a host of others keep flashing the claim that Conservatives are against healthcare reform, and any reasonable person knows this to be untrue.  When I hear such accusations I see the trappings. 

They did vote against it, you know. All of them. Even though it's essentially the Romney plan that was implemented in Mass. It amazes me that the Democrats put forth an essentially Republican plan and had such a hard time passing it. It amazes me even more that the Republicans couldn't see the enormous gamble they were taking by not supporting what is mostly their plan.

The far right of the Republican party convinced the moderates that they could kill the bill. That got everybody in the party shouting extremist rhetoric and completely distorting what this bill does. Had it not passed, it would have been a big win for the Republicans. Since it did, people are going to see first hand what it really does. When the sky does not fall, people will be pleased that it's not as bad as they were told. Since the Republicans set the bar so low, Grandma not getting euthanized by a Death Panel will be seen as a major success.

Of course, how could they possibly have voted for it anyway after painting as the return of Hitler?

Republicans have essentially handed the Democrats a future reserve of goodwill from the electorate. I know you won't be happy with it no matter what happens, but the moderates, they will come to like their ObamaCare just as retirees like their MediCare. That's a pretty big stick to beat the Republicans with, don't you think?

If the Republicans also stand firm against financial reform, I think they stand a good chance of tanking in November. Even Tea Partiers want to see more regulation of the too-big-to-fail set. You'd better hope that McCain was just venting when he said Republicans would no longer be cooperating with Democrats on anything.

[we vs us]

We're still many months away from the election and one major thing will happen between now and then:  the economy will get better.  

Unless something major happens, we're on course for a mild recovery.  It won't be all bells and whistles but come November there should be some measurable change for the better.  If that's the case, then the D's won't lose quite as badly as initially thought.  

And as I said before, regardless of the content of the bill, it was a crucial demonstration of the ability of the D's to actually execute.  They finally got something done, which is the baseline level of competency you might need to re-elect them.  If they can't actually do what they say they're going to do, then there's no reason to keep them in.  So that's a major hurdle cleared, and one that we weren't sure they could get over.

I don't think this means they won't lose seats, but it just might not be as bad as the R's are saying it'll be.    

[Gaspar]

We're still many months away from the election and one major thing will happen between now and then:  the economy will get better.  

Unless something major happens, we're on course for a mild recovery.  It won't be all bells and whistles but come November there should be some measurable change for the better.  If that's the case, then the D's won't lose quite as badly as initially thought.  

And as I said before, regardless of the content of the bill, it was a crucial demonstration of the ability of the D's to actually execute.  They finally got something done, which is the baseline level of competency you might need to re-elect them.  If they can't actually do what they say they're going to do, then there's no reason to keep them in.  So that's a major hurdle cleared, and one that we weren't sure they could get over.

I don't think this means they won't lose seats, but it just might not be as bad as the R's are saying it'll be.    

I agree. The economy will be a very big issue, and I'm seeing some promising trends in the markets.  Of course I have my "local lenses" on and everything looks better in Oklahoma.  If Stocks continue to grow and we don't have a second punch, the Democrats will be able to tout the stimulus program as a worthwhile investment. 

I also think that it's important for Republicans to tread very lightly.  They just got pimp-slapped, and crying about it will only make them look more like they deserved it.  This is another example of why McCain was never presidential material.

There is a certain amount of buyer's remorse that comes with every large purchase, and this is the largest purchase in the history of the world.  The President will have to continue to sell it even after the close, to keep the customers happy.  The only problem for him is that the product is to be paid for without delivery for a long long time.

[fotd]

Today, in the 80% of districts and states that overwhelmingly support health care reform, the Republicans will have to run on the record of having tried and failed to block it. That is going to be hell for them.

[we vs us]

David Frum, one of W's speechwriters, posted this on his blog last night.  It's definitely made the rounds of the blogosphere, and thought it's a bit hysterical it also makes some solid points about the challenges Republicans now face. 

"We followed the most radical voices in the party and the movement, and they led us to abject and irreversible defeat.

There were leaders who knew better, who would have liked to deal. But they were trapped. Conservative talkers on Fox and talk radio had whipped the Republican voting base into such a frenzy that deal-making was rendered impossible. How do you negotiate with somebody who wants to murder your grandmother? Or – more exactly – with somebody whom your voters have been persuaded to believe wants to murder their grandmother?"

[fotd]

David Frum, one of W's speechwriters, posted this on his blog last night.  It's definitely made the rounds of the blogosphere, and thought it's a bit hysterical it also makes some solid points about the challenges Republicans now face. 

"We followed the most radical voices in the party and the movement, and they led us to abject and irreversible defeat.

There were leaders who knew better, who would have liked to deal. But they were trapped. Conservative talkers on Fox and talk radio had whipped the Republican voting base into such a frenzy that deal-making was rendered impossible. How do you negotiate with somebody who wants to murder your grandmother? Or – more exactly – with somebody whom your voters have been persuaded to believe wants to murder their grandmother?"

Yes. The GOP fell into the irrational and erratic hole dug for them by  http://www.tulsanow.org/forum/index.php?topic=9385.0


So, is Rush moving on to Costa Rico where they have free health care, black market oxycontin, and hookers?

[guido911]

Today, in the 80% of districts and states that overwhelmingly support health care reform, the Republicans will have to run on the record of having tried and failed to block it. That is going to be hell for them.

Oh that explains why 37 states are taking steps either to challenge the bill through the courts or find ways to opt out of Obamacare altogether.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/US-Health-Overhaul-States/2010/03/17/id/353087

[Conan71]

I guess I don't get why so many republicans act as if a big central government will destroy America.

The federal government is already in almost all parts of our lives already. Why is this the straw that breaks America's back?

Why, you ask?  Mainly because there will be a tipping point when the number of direct employees, contract employees, people recieving various retirement, disability, social benefits including healthcare that the cost becomes unsustainable. Actually, we've arrived at that point. Now that the shock of the trillion dollar threshold has come and gone, all there is to do is wait and watch our credit rating slowly dive and we will be owned by foreign governments.  Call me nuts. Go ahead.