Peak Oil? Not so much.

[Chicken Little]

Very interesting NYT article.

This sum's it up:

quote:"Yes, there are finite resources in the ground, but you never get to that point," Jeff Hatlen, an engineer with Chevron, said on a recent tour of the field.

In 1978, when he started his career here, operators believed the field would be abandoned within 15 years. "That's why peak oil is a moving target," Mr. Hatlen said. "Oil is always a function of price and technology."

/Cheap oil of the Hummer-friendly variety is going away, but as it does, our "reserves" from mature fields go up, too.  Good for Oklahoma.  Good for alternative energy.  Good for energy independence.  Who's losing?  Looks like the Saudis.

[deinstein]

I tend to trust scientific sources more than mainstream media citing a Chevron source.

[Chicken Little]

Yeah, I hear ya, but it's on the front page of the New York Times.  That will mean a lot to a lot of people.

[YoungTulsan]

I'm wondering that, if oil is proven to be running out, perhaps it is the oil companies themselves that are wanting people to "conserve" their oil consumption just a bit?   Look at it this way, they already charge just about whatever they want to.  So if we use less, they can charge more and still make their money.  Thus the lifespan of their cash cow is extended more years into its limited future through "conservation".

Makes me wonder if even the oil companies are behind all the manmade global warming hooplah.

Yeah, I know, I'm kinda out there.

[TheArtist]

Have been hearing about research into ice hydrates for a while now and recently read an article that said if we could recover only 1% of this source, our nations reserves of natural gas would double.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070221180908.htm

There does seem to be plenty fuel out there in various forms.  The bet is usually, can they control the output to keep prices decent, but yet keep up with growth.

The thing that comes up in my mind is TN and others use the 100dollar a barrel of oil to promote urban living, mass transit options,and  weeding people off the use of their cars. I am all for those things, but don't think that peak oil type high fuel costs are a genuine reason.  For I also see future advances in alternative fuels, like wind, solar, hydroge, nuclear, biofuels, etc. etc. will enable people to drive their cars as well. Not to mention the possibility of more fuel efficient cars now and in the future. On top of expanding potential fuel reserves and types of fuel.

My point is that this type of talk, used to try and promote dense walkable areas and mass transit,lessening of spraw etc., Well,,, I don't believe it myself, so how can I expect other, car loving Americans to do so?  

The real reasons for me, to promote the type of growth we want, is that life simply becomes better.  People are more connected, less isolated with a greater sense of community and friendships, it is more economical in many ways regardless of whether there is enough oil or not, gives you time to actually live your life, and is potentially much kinder to the environment. Those reasons are far more compelling and immediate to me than any 100 dollar a barrel oil threat.  We should point out and promote the "its a better life than living out in some suburb" angle.  That would be more likely to stem the fad of suburbia in peoples minds than the threat of peak oil would IMO.

[cannon_fodder]

for god's sake - no, we arent running out of oil.

A gallon of oil costs half of what a gallon of mil costs.  Does that sounds like a rare commodity?  

Current reserves would last the world to 2050, pretending we don't discover any new oil, better ways to extract it, or new energy sources.  

By the end of this century, we will probably be out of CHEAP oil and have to go get the stuff that is hard to reach.  But the "running out of oil" crap I was fed in grade school is laughable.  It was 20 years ago, it is today.

[Chicken Little]

Seems like all of us are half right and none of us are all wrong.  The cheap oil is disappearing rapidly, but there is plenty of other, more expensive, oil to go get...even right here in our own back yards.

And because it is more expensive, alternative energy will have a chance to compete, too.  Ultimately, that could supplant the demand for oil altogether.

Personally, I don't think $1 a gallon gas is coming back...ever.  And as Artist notes, that will have a big impact on things like where we live and how we get our food.  But it looks like the chances for a catastrophic 'Peak Oil' crash  are looking less and less likely.  Good news for me...I wasn't looking forward to eating my pets.

If I have to ride a bike a couple of days a week in order to save a little money, then so be it.    It's healthy, and it may help de-fund some of the most politically unstable areas on the planet.

All I need to know is where to buy the Santa suit.

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by Chicken Little
All I need to know is where to buy the Santa suit.

Please no. I beg you.