Tulsa_Real_Estate

[Im calling you out]

What do you think the market will be as far as home sales & new homes in the next five years?

[FOTD]

Please be more specific. RE is subdivided (into catagories)....

[dggriffi]

If your referring to housing,  i would say that tulsa didn't suffer from the bubble because it didn't really have one.  But we are flat and will probably stay flat for the next 2 years.

[cannon_fodder]

Flat?  2007 saw 7-8% growth in the average price of a home in the Tulsa area.  I'd say that is well above flat with 3-4% inflation.

Industrial properties have also done very well lately.

Commercial... that's flat from what I understand.  Enough new construction to meet any new demand.  Leaving a constant rate of vacancy (which is at an acceptable level though).  
- - -

I see good things for home, a bit of a slow down for industrial, and commercial is always a mess.  I'm afraid I see it remaining flat.

[dggriffi]

from my perspective,  we have been flat for nearly  2 years with only minor gains. We certainly haven't gone backwards.    Despite the deputed "flatness"    Sales picked up early in 07 and that caused a spike in the prices.   This price spike and the associated sale counts have dropped back down below recent minimums.  The stats may show Tulsa up for 07 but in reality its not.

Tulsa was well below the national for a long time which has allowed us to make minor gains while the rest of the nation tapes a dip.    Tulsa's market might mimic the national in a delayed fashion.

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by cannon_fodder

Flat?  2007 saw 7-8% growth in the average price of a home in the Tulsa area.  I'd say that is well above flat with 3-4% inflation.

Industrial properties have also done very well lately.

Commercial... that's flat from what I understand.  Enough new construction to meet any new demand.  Leaving a constant rate of vacancy (which is at an acceptable level though).  
- - -

I see good things for home, a bit of a slow down for industrial, and commercial is always a mess.  I'm afraid I see it remaining flat.

That's a very good assessment CF (as usual).  I would add that we are seeing a small but significant spike in commercial and some new growth in multifamily (apartment).  

We were not part of the sub-prime mess because our property value growth rate was more realistic than other parts of the country, and lenders did not see us as prey.  

But. . . this does not mean it wont affect us to some extent.  There are a lot of mush-heads that don't understand the basics of this type of economics that will panic fueled by media and rumor.  While the economic signs point towards another year of sustainable 6% - 8% growth in home prices for Oklahoma, I think we will probably be one or two points below that.

If we see the grim signs of tax increases at the end of 2008 after the election the market will tighten and the fed will have to take actions that may not bode well for anyone.  This will affect new homes the most and will weed out the weak.  

IF this happens I still think we will maintain at least 4%.

Of course IF that happens other businesses in our market will downsize or fail too, so property value won't be on the top of our ticket.

Economically (number-wise) the US is not headed toward recession, but the media has been very successful in the last few weeks of forcing massive sell-offs in the stock market and hammering away at consumer confidence.  

I've never seen anything like this before.  We are manifesting a destiny that is simply unreal, because various political interests and media organizations are pushing it.  There is a subconscious wave in the US that wants us to go into recession as some sort of masochistic contrition.  It's the same people that are complaining because their taxes are too low?  

Kinda like complaining that your hand-cuffs are too loose.

[Renaissance]

The apartment market in Tulsa is pretty tight.  A mini-boom in apartment construction would not surprise me at all.

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by Floyd

The apartment market in Tulsa is pretty tight.  A mini-boom in apartment construction would not surprise me at all.

It's started!  Watch Leinbach, and Flornoy they have several projects on the horizon.

[TUalum0982]

quote:Originally posted by spoonbill

quote:Originally posted by Floyd

The apartment market in Tulsa is pretty tight.  A mini-boom in apartment construction would not surprise me at all.

It's started!  Watch Leinbach, and Flornoy they have several projects on the horizon.

yeah the execs for Flournoy out of Columbus GA fly into Tulsa atleast once a month on their private jet.  I bet they have some plans up their sleeves.

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by TUalum0982

quote:Originally posted by spoonbill

quote:Originally posted by Floyd

The apartment market in Tulsa is pretty tight.  A mini-boom in apartment construction would not surprise me at all.

It's started!  Watch Leinbach, and Flornoy they have several projects on the horizon.

yeah the execs for Flournoy out of Columbus GA fly into Tulsa atleast once a month on their private jet.  I bet they have some plans up their sleeves.

They're not the only national apartment builder flying in once a week.  We've got great things on the horizon for the apartment market.

[FOTD]

The retail sector is way in over their heads.....we are tied to the national situation which looks bad.

The apartment sector has room to grow which explains Flournoy.

The industrial sector is strong.....and should remain so.

The housing market is ok. There are tons of low income foreclosures. The statements about Tulsa being off the national cycle are true. We've always been behind the curve. The 80's taught RE developers much to the dismay of investors and institutions.

Credit is drying up. So, there should be a slow down but no catastrophes like in many parts of the country. As baby boomers retire and change their living habits, the demographics may change a bit.

[Nick Danger]

Overall, it looks like Tulsa will not experience the foreclosure mess that is happening in Arizona, California, Nevada, Florida and Ohio.

However, the residential market appears to have slowed a bit. We live in an older neighborhood in south Tulsa where the houses turn rapidly when put on the market. There are probably 7-10 in the area that have been on the market for around 6 months or so, some even longer. Some are priced realistically, but there are a couple of them that wouldn't surprise me if they have loans way in excess of the current value, because they are priced over market.

Nick

[FOTD]

The deal with Mart Green and ORU happened.
Very good news. Imagine if ORU had gone bye bye.

And that "planned" shopping center site mentioned here several weeks ago at 81st and Lewis, the price just went up.

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD



The deal with Mart Green and ORU happened.
Very good news. Imagine if ORU had gone bye bye.

I dunno, I was looking forward to the fire sale on gaudy futurist architecture.

[Ibanez]

Last week I ran into the realtor we used to sell our house last summer. As we were talking in line at Reasor's I asked how business was and he said he was moving into the foreclosure market and had been doing "a ton of business in that market in Jenks and Bixby lately." He said that probably 60% of his business the last 4 months has been buying and reselling foreclosed homes in those areas.

Take it for what it is worth...but it sounds like "South County" may have burst its bubble.