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Author Topic: Hillary has momentum  (Read 7798 times)
RecycleMichael
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« on: March 19, 2008, 09:36:32 am »

Hillary has closed a 14 point lead nationally by Obama to a three point lead, within the margin of error.

I just know that all you Hillary-haters will just come back at me and denounce her as the anti-Christ. I tried to talk about momentum in an earlier thread and many of you disagreed. This story does prove what I was saying...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080319/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc

Obama's lead over Clinton narrows: Reuters poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big national lead over Hillary Clinton has all but evaporated in the U.S. presidential race, and both Democrats trail Republican John McCain, according a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. The poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14 point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories.

Illinois Sen. Obama, who would be America's first black president, has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from New York Sen. Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher. The poll showed Arizona Sen. McCain, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, is benefiting from the lengthy campaign battle between Obama and Clinton, who are now battling to win Pennsylvania on April 22.

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll. That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent. "The last couple of weeks have taken a toll on Obama and in a general election match-up, on both Democrats," said pollster John Zogby. Matched up against Clinton, McCain leads 48 percent to 40 percent, narrower than his 50 to 38 percent advantage over her in February.

"It's not surprising to me that McCain's on top because there is disarray and confusion on the Democratic side," Zogby said Obama gave a speech on Tuesday rebuking his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, for sermons sometimes laced with inflammatory tirades but said he could not disown him and it was time for Americans to bind the country's racial wounds. The poll showed Obama continues to have strong support from the African-American community but that he is experiencing some slippage among moderates and independents. Among independents, McCain led for the first time in the poll, 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama. He was behind McCain by 21 percent among white voters.

Zogby attributed this to a combination of the fallout from Clinton's victory in Ohio earlier this month and the controversy over Wright's sermons. "And, just the closer he gets to the nomination, the tougher questions whites ask about an African-American candidate," Zogby said. The March 13-14 poll surveyed 525 likely Democratic primary voters for the matchup between Clinton and Obama. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. For the matchup between McCain and his Democratic rivals, 1004 likely voters were surveyed. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
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sgrizzle
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2008, 10:26:16 am »

Things rolling downhill always gain momentum. [Cheesy]

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inteller
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2008, 10:34:02 am »

I think McCain is going to peel off enough moderate democrats that he can take this one.  I hate him on Iraq and immigration, but he is better than the dems on everything else.
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cannon_fodder
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2008, 10:48:02 am »

Surely Obama is at the low point with this whole "my minister is a racist" thing.  Hillary should win Penn and will claim the momentum from there.

However, the sad fact of the matter is she was the nominee back in January, hell when the campaigning kicked off she had a 33 point lead.  It was her's to lose and she has.  It is statistically impossible for her to get more popular votes or pledged delegates than Obama unless Obama does something amazingly stupid.

There will be swings back and forth from now on I'm sure, +/- 10 points either way would not surprise me.  But all that really matters is the delegate and votes int he pocket, and that she is unlikely to win.  And as of right now, McCain beats them both anyway (kind of surprises me and it is damn close).

Anyway...  popular opinion doesn't REALLY matter in the game at this point.  Maneuvering for delegates and popular votes is what counts in the bank.  With Florida and Michigan pretty much off the table, Obama wins both.  The super delegates at the convention decide the outcome.

This will continue to be ugly.

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FOTD
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2008, 11:06:17 am »

Timing is everything...don't go judging what's gonna happen based on one week at a time polling. Especially if you live in repugnant ****ry like Okiehoma. Barack has this thing right where he wants it....and after this week, the superdeli count will be his ace in her hole.

Penn don't matter despite Obama's gap closing.

I love the fact McBush is staying close. Soon, he will be diminished by Obama's stature as a true leader based on his ability to rally the masses....
You who pay attention to yak radio and Faux news will have a come to Jeeezus moment come November.
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pmcalk
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2008, 11:13:54 am »

You are right, RM, Hillary has regained some ground after her nose dive back in February.  I imagine dumping her campaign manager and throwing the kitchen sink at Obama paid off somewhat.  Still, CF is right.  Statistically, there is no way for her to win.  Obama is ahead by almost 150 delegates.  Intrade still has Obama ahead by almost 3 to 1.  At this point, it is inevitable that he will get the nomination, unless a huge number of superdelegates choose to invalidate the pledged delegate count.

Hillary has every right to hang in there, and I don't fault her for doing so.  But at this point I am really ready to move on--let's get to McCain.  IMO, either one of them will have an easy time beating McCain (who, despite his assertions that he has the foreign policy experience, doesn't seem to know whether Iran is Shiite or Sunni).
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FOTD
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2008, 11:22:37 am »

But McBush has Lindsey Graham and Joe Liarman to back him up, whisper in his good ear, and keep him straight about the Taliban. Right...
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Hometown
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2008, 11:30:51 am »

Neither Clinton nor Obama can accumulate enough pledged delegates to lock up the nomination.  We will have to use the mechanism the party planned for this eventuality -- super delegates who will decide our next leader before the convention.

Both Clinton and Obama have stated that they will ask their supporters to support the party's nominee.

I believe it will be absolutely necessary to put the loser on the ticket as a vice-president.  It's more of a gamble that I like but not to do so will render great damage to our prospets in November.

My Partner, who has supported Clinton longer than I have, has announced that he will vote for Nadar/Gonzales should Obama win.  If he sees Obama choose Clinton as a running mate he would be appeased and vote Democrat.  The same dynamic works vice versa.


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FOTD
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2008, 11:39:36 am »

quote:
Originally posted by Hometown

Neither Clinton nor Obama can accumulate enough pledged delegates to lock up the nomination.  We will have to use the mechanism the party planned for this eventuality -- super delegates who will decide our next leader before the convention.

Both Clinton and Obama have stated that they will ask their supporters to support the party's nominee.

I believe it will be absolutely necessary to put the loser on the ticket as a vice-president.  It's more of a gamble that I like but not to do so will render great damage to our prospets in November.

My Partner, who has supported Clinton longer than I have, has announced that he will vote for Nadar/Gonzales should Obama win.  If he sees Obama choose Clinton as a running mate he would be appeased and vote Democrat.  The same dynamic works vice versa.






So, looks like your partner is a genius?

Billary is off the ticket.
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Hometown
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2008, 11:46:02 am »

Obama is getting awful close to being damaged goods but I still believe the smart move for Clinton will be to name Obama as her running mate.  She has all but promised and he has not said "no."

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FOTD
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2008, 11:50:16 am »

I will point this out again. The big democratic leadership now understands the importance of having Obama head the ticket without Billary in order to secure the neccesary congressional and Senate seats to reclaim our country.

It's all about the black vote. Tough to grasp for those old red state bumpkins.
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Hometown
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2008, 11:57:44 am »

Blacks are 10 percent of our population.  Latinos are the largest minority in the United States.

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FOTD
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2008, 01:01:15 pm »

Swing votes.....get it?....they make it majority rule. They don't vote, Repugnants hold onto power. Their numbers matter.....
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Conan71
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2008, 01:34:58 pm »

quote:
Originally posted by Hometown

Obama is getting awful close to being damaged goods but I still believe the smart move for Clinton will be to name Obama as her running mate.  She has all but promised and he has not said "no."





Smart move for the party would be for Hillary's hit team to lay off Obama before McCain winds up with a 20% gap over a combined ticket of Hillary/Obama or vice versa.

There's a whole lot of acrimony building, and I don't see these two being able to have any credibility if they team up.

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"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first” -Ronald Reagan
FOTD
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2008, 01:41:07 pm »

HUH!? 20%? You really need to get out of Oklahoma every now and then.....[}:)]

McBush will be lucky to find a decent running mate. Maybe Dan Quayle will be available.....
« Last Edit: March 19, 2008, 01:42:44 pm by FOTD » Logged
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