One would have to move around in it too much and be able to call performance - something few can do. Even Buffet knows better than that - he buys with the intent to never sell as the starting point. If ya had say 1,000 ounces bought in 1996, would you have sold in 2012? Calling the highs and lows....And then would you buy now when it is performing so poorly. I think it is just as likely to go to 700 as it is to go to 1700 again. And if oil keeps creeping up to where Saudi wants it to be, then I am betting on lower.
300% since 1996 with an 8 year stint below $400. If one were able to "pick" the highs and lows it might have been a good short term bet. But nobody can do that, else we would not need guys like Jim Cramer!! (LOL....I crack myself up - he is not as good as just following the S&P.)
Compared to about 700% for Buffet since 1996.
https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BRK-A+Interactive#{%22range%22:%22max%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}Apple - about 12,000% (1996)
https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#symbol=AAPL;range=myEven just doing a DOW index would be better at about 315% -ish. I know those are fake numbers, but the trend is valid.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5EDJI;range=myExxon about 350%...about as bad as one could hope for.(1996)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XOM+Interactive#{%22range%22:%22max%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}The big problem with gold is the propaganda and hype behind it and the frenzied nonsense about everything from how important it will be in the future total economic collapse to how we should go back on the gold standard. And otherwise semi-rational people buy into this.
If ya look at ALL the gold ever mined in the history of the planet, it amounts to somewhere under $6 trillion - depending on a LOT of conjecture about Spanish sunken treasure. And no one country is ever gonna have all of it at once. So, either the growth and economic opportunities we have enjoyed since ending the gold standard nonsense just would not exist. Or inflationary pressures would put the price of gold at tens of thousands per ounce - or more - which would also have the effect of severely limiting our economy (worldwide, not just the US).
And if one buys into the idea that we are gonna go into total economic meltdown and collapse, then gold is again going to be so massively inflated at the same time fewer people will have access to it and fewer will accept it as a medium of exchange, making it nonviable as a medium of exchange. (I couldn't care less about it - I want green beans, corn, squash, tomatoes, etc and the seeds of same.)
Or if someone was still wanting gold, fine...I will sell them one roll of toilet paper from my stash for one equal weight of gold. Or one shot of whiskey for one ounce of gold. Or one bar of Dial gold for an ounce of metal gold. Better yet, enough copper to make a still so I can create an ongoing 'revenue' stream. Something of real value for something that glitters and I might be able to pawn off on someone who doesn't know real value....