Tulsa sees population growth

[MichaelC]

From Tulsa World

quote:Tulsa's population grew last year for the first time since the millennium, according to government estimates being released Thursday.

The increase from 2005 to 2006 was small -- 0.4 percent, or 1,400 people -- but it may portend an economic upswing for a city that's been hopeful far too long, census watchers say.

"It may sound like a small amount, but it's a positive move, and it had been negative," said Bob Ball, an economist at the Tulsa Metro Chamber.

Although symbolically significant, the growth is overshadowed by a five-year drop in Tulsa's popu lation since 2000, the starting point for this particular Census Bureau report.

The Census Bureau listed Tulsa's population at 382,872 in July 2006, down 2.6 percent from a peak of 393,049 recorded in 2000 after a decade of nearly constant growth.

Ball said the population increase last year was a direct result of economic improvement in Oklahoma. The momentum should continue alongside gains in the national economy, he added.

Shannon Walker sees young professionals moving to Tulsa and into the urban-flavored Metro Lofts that she's co-developing near the Cherry Street
area of 15th Street.

Thirteen completed six-figure lofts have been sold. An additional 39 are under construction, and many of them already have been purchased.

Walker said property in the heart of the city is sought after by locals and out-of-towners fleeing metropolises. She listed acquaintances moving to Tulsa from San Francisco, Texas and New York City.

"Tulsa is not seen as just a small town anymore," she said. "It's small, but it's diverse."

For everyone moving into Tulsa, however, handfuls are moving out to suburbs.

Jenks, Bixby and Owasso grew more from 2000 to 2006 than did any other Oklahoma cities with more than 10,000 residents, said Jeff Wallace, the director of the Census Data Center at the state Department of Commerce.

Census data show that Jenks' population increased nearly 48 percent during that period, and Bixby wasn't far behind, with a 44.7 percent-increase.

Owasso grew by 34.8 percent.

Broken Arrow didn't grow as much -- 18 percent over the same period -- but it became the state's fourth-largest city last year, overtaking Lawton.

That's no surprise to demographers who have tracked the recent exodus from city to suburbia.

Tulsa's population was siphoned by residents who left urban living for more bedrooms and bigger yards. So it was even more significant that Tulsa grew last year while its suburbs surged too.

Tulsa's geographical makeup is a factor.

People don't have to move far to be out of the city limits, which encompass 186 square miles, Wallace said. In contrast, Oklahoma City contains more than 620 square miles, he said.

The Census Bureau pegged Oklahoma City's population at 537,734.

"You can leave the core of Oklahoma City, move further out and still be in the city limits," Wallace said.

"It's hard to do that in Tulsa simply because of its physical size."

Suburban growth greatly helped the seven-county Tulsa metro area grow by 4.4 percent from 2000 to 2006, recent Census data show.

The metro-area population is nearly 900,000 and is expected to exceed 1 million in a few years.

Ball said Tulsa benefits from its nearby suburbanites.

"They still spend their money here. They still earn their money here," he said.

"Tulsa is doing the right thing to attract those who live around here to come, spend their money and contribute to the sales tax," he said.

The boom of Hispanics was another contributing factor to Tulsa's growth.

Although the latest Census estimates don't break down populations by race or nationality, previous Census Bureau reports have shown that Hispanics account for much of the state's growth in recent years.

That population growth explains more than half of Oklahoma's increase since 2000, the Census reported in May.

The state's Hispanic population increased by 38 percent during that time.

"It's safe to assume the same thing is happening in the city," Wallace said.

[DM]

quote: "Tulsa is not seen as just a small town anymore," she said. "It's small, but it's diverse."

I agree with that. When I moved here, I was not expecting it to be as diverse as it is. I think it is still highly segregated but I also think that is getting better too. If we continue to push things like river development and higher education, I think we will continue to see a larger younger population growth and even more diversity.

[RecycleMichael]

I believe thank yous are in order for those of us who have had kids in that time period.

[TheArtist]

It is good news that Tulsa has at least stabilized and while the suburbs are rapidly growing.  The growing hispanic population has definitely kept Tulsa from shrinking even further in the last years but with the new laws many may find that they have to leave. Hopefully the trend of growth will be maintained despite any exodus. I think there are many factors that will now help Tulsa to grow. River development, possible East End development and renewed interest in Downtown will help. Those things will help Tulsa's evolution into a full fleged small city with a real city feel and lifestyle, instead of being a really large town.

[cannon_fodder]

I would be hard pressed to see our population going down for a while with all the new high density lofts and condos going up and new housing starts everywhere from the southern most spots to the north side.

I hope to see the 400,000 mark by the 2010 census.

[guido911]

Is Vision 2025 to blame?

[TheArtist]

Woo hooo! we have finally made it onto the "fastest growing cities" charts. Of cities with a population of 100,000 or more we are the 146th fastest growing city in the Nation. []

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/27/real_estate/258_fastest_growing_cities/index.htm

[Rowdy]

quote:Originally posted by recyclemichael

I believe thank yous are in order for those of us who have had kids in that time period.

Yeah it was sure fun making them.

[sauerkraut]

Tulsa lost alot of population after the 2000 census. Tulsa had 393,000 people in 2000 - Today it's down to 384,000.... Omaha, Nebraska passed Tulsa in population and is now at #76, while Oklahoma City is at 73. What's wrong with this picture? What is Tulsa doing wrong?[xx(]

[TheArtist]

quote:Originally posted by sauerkraut

Tulsa lost alot of population after the 2000 census. Tulsa had 393,000 people in 2000 - Today it's down to 384,000.... Omaha, Nebraska passed Tulsa in population and is now at #76, while Oklahoma City is at 73. What's wrong with this picture? What is Tulsa doing wrong?[xx(]

It sat on its butt and didn't do anything.  (If your not pushing forward, your falling behind) Lets hope this has changed in the last couple of years, and lets keep pushing to do more.

[MichaelC]

The downturn hit Tulsa as hard as any city, and Tulsa was not in a position to recover as quickly as some cities.  Tulsa still hasn't fully recovered the jobs it lost in 2001 and 2002.  A few more businesses, or a particular economic catalyst, and Tulsa will be primed for a significant population jump.

Barring catastrophe, we'll be in a significantly stronger position in 2009 through 2012.

[cannon_fodder]

Tulsa is at or near its all time record for total jobs, we have surpassed out numbers from 2001 by some 10,000 jobs.  The peak in 2001 was just shy of 420,000 jobs, going into 2007 Tulsa had 431,000 jobs (both are for Metro area).
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t03.htm

The Tulsa world published a chart using the data a while back:



But you are correct, Tulsa took a MAJOR hit in the downturn.  Which is too bad, as it appears in hindsight the city prepared itself well.  Learning from the oil bust in the 1980's Tulsa diversified into Aerospace, TeleCom, Energy Trading, and Finance.  Little did they know that 911 would cripple Aerospace, World Com and Enron would their respective industries, and that CFS was a shame.  Of all the industries to pick, they made the perfecta.  

I agree that the MSA (metro statistical area) is primed for serious growth, I hope Tulsa and developers work together to help make sure some of that growth is actually IN Tulsa.

[MichaelC]

A lot of it is type of job.  Not all were especially great, but we lost a lot (in the 1000s) of middle-low income call center jobs, good paying tech jobs and aerospace jobs.  

What we lost, we didn't get back.  We got Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets, an extra Subway or two, a couple Lowe's, and a Best Buy.  Even aerospace, we got some back at lower wages due to outsourcing..  If you're judging economic recovery by number of Starbuck's, we've recovered.

quote:Originally posted by cannon_fodder

I agree that the MSA (metro statistical area) is primed for serious growth, I hope Tulsa and developers work together to help make sure some of that growth is actually IN Tulsa.

The rental market here, is depressed.  Developers have continued to build inside the city, but the city has actually shrunk in population.  With some small stimulus, and prices as low as they are in the city, Tulsa will take off.  It could easily rebound to 430K without significant new construction.

The MSA doesn't need stimulus.  It it's nature to grow, outside catastrophe.  The MSA will top 1 million soon.

[cannon_fodder]

Good point on the quality of jobs Michael.  Certainly the engineering jobs at WilTell, the management positions at CFS, and the corporate dependability of Citgo have not been replaced.  Luckily some industries stepped in to at least provide SOME jobs.  Hopefully we can lure some higher wages to town and grow the companies we currently have.

I'll take 400,000 by 2009, that's my over under line anyway.

[sauerkraut]

quote:Originally posted by MichaelC

A lot of it is type of job.  Not all were especially great, but we lost a lot (in the 1000s) of middle-low income call center jobs, good paying tech jobs and aerospace jobs.  

What we lost, we didn't get back.  We got Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets, an extra Subway or two, a couple Lowe's, and a Best Buy.  Even aerospace, we got some back at lower wages due to outsourcing..  If you're judging economic recovery by number of Starbuck's, we've recovered.

quote:Originally posted by cannon_fodder

I agree that the MSA (metro statistical area) is primed for serious growth, I hope Tulsa and developers work together to help make sure some of that growth is actually IN Tulsa.

The rental market here, is depressed.  Developers have continued to build inside the city, but the city has actually shrunk in population.  With some small stimulus, and prices as low as they are in the city, Tulsa will take off.  It could easily rebound to 430K without significant new construction.

The MSA doesn't need stimulus.  It it's nature to grow, outside catastrophe.  The MSA will top 1 million soon.

I doubt the MSA will top one million anytime soon. Perhaps not untill we are well into the 2010's. Omaha's population is well over 400,000 right now and growing fast and the metro area there is still not over one million unless you count the Lincoln, NE area too but that is not the correct way to do it. Lincoln, Nebraska has it's own MSA.