President Trump- The Implications

[heironymouspasparagus]

Good thing all those Harley line workers are such great Trump fans!!  More jobs!!  Oh, wait...what...??


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/harley-stung-tariffs-shifts-production-112705702.html


Even better than Dino Yasss!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBgeCZW3upg

[cannon_fodder]

The Russians are giving us variety of lessons lately...

You're on your own, US tells Syrian rebels, as Assad goes on offensive

The US has warned Syrian rebels in the south-west of the country they should not expect military support to help them resist a major government offensive.

The message from Washington comes as Russian jets struck an opposition-held town on Sunday in the first air cover provided by Moscow to an expanding Syrian army offensive in the strategic area bordering Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The US message sent to heads of the Free Syrian Army said Washington wanted to make clear that “you should not base your decisions on the assumption or expectation of a military intervention by us”.

Washington had warned the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and his Russian allies that violations of a “de-escalation” zone agreed by the US and Russia last year would have “serious repercussions” and pledged “firm and appropriate measures”.

The US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, said on Friday the Syrian military escalation “unambiguously violates” the de-escalation arrangement.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/24/youre-on-your-own-us-tells-syrian-rebels-as-assad-goes-on-offensive

Glad to see our consistency on Syria.  By that I mean Obama messed it up by drawing a line in the sand and then allowing the Russians to out maneuver him, and it looks like Trump is doing the exact same thing.  It seems Russia is accomplishing all its strategic aims lately while we are busy picking fights with Canada, the EU and Mexico.

[heironymouspasparagus]

The Russians are giving us variety of lessons lately...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/24/youre-on-your-own-us-tells-syrian-rebels-as-assad-goes-on-offensive

Glad to see our consistency on Syria.  By that I mean Obama messed it up by drawing a line in the sand and then allowing the Russians to out maneuver him, and it looks like Trump is doing the exact same thing.  It seems Russia is accomplishing all its strategic aims lately while we are busy picking fights with Canada, the EU and Mexico.

Because Trump is such a good buddy to Putin.


We have done a lot of stupid stuff trying to outmaneuver Russia - doesn't help when leaders are working together.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Here is the kind of breathtakingly stupid lie that these people persist in spewing.  It has always been a lie.  Will always be a lie. They are willfully ignorant at best.   There is so much documentation that indeed the Civil War WAS about slavery, at this point in time, you are morally bankrupt and intellectually corrupt if you refuse to read it and correct your ignorance, or continue to lie about it in spite of knowing better.   Or as Trump would say, the Klan is some fine people!


http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/393927-gop-candidate-civil-war-wasnt-about-slavery

[patric]

Good thing all those Harley line workers are such great Trump fans!!  More jobs!!  Oh, wait...what...??
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/harley-stung-tariffs-shifts-production-112705702.html

The first casualties of President Trump's trade war are 60 workers at Mid-Continent Nail, America's largest nail manufacturer. They lost their jobs on June 15 at a factory in a part of Missouri that voted overwhelmingly for Trump. The whole company could be out of business by Labor Day.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/25/the-first-layoffs-from-trumps-tariffs-are-here/

[Conan71]

The Russians are giving us variety of lessons lately...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/24/youre-on-your-own-us-tells-syrian-rebels-as-assad-goes-on-offensive

Glad to see our consistency on Syria.  By that I mean Obama messed it up by drawing a line in the sand and then allowing the Russians to out maneuver him, and it looks like Trump is doing the exact same thing.  It seems Russia is accomplishing all its strategic aims lately while we are busy picking fights with Canada, the EU and Mexico.

I always love how "Assad" sounds so much like "Asshat".

[cannon_fodder]

Trump:  We need to lower corporate taxes or companies will move production overseas. 

Also Trump: Harley Davidson moving production to Europe isn't because of the new taxes the tariffs created, it's just an excuse!


Harley sells about 40,000 motorcycles in Europe.  Previously, most were assembled in Wisconsin.  Under Trump's new trade wars, each bike is slapped with a 31% tax if it comes from the United States.  Moving production to stay competitive isn't a very hard choice... I'm guessing the alternative is for the American company to just not plan on selling the product in the trade-war affected markets.

It's almost like a global economy is complicated...  if only economist would have warned us that a trade war costs participants more than any will gain.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/harley-davidson-us-eu-tariffs.html

[heironymouspasparagus]

Trump:  We need to lower corporate taxes or companies will move production overseas. 

Also Trump: Harley Davidson moving production to Europe isn't because of the new taxes the tariffs created, it's just an excuse!


Harley sells about 40,000 motorcycles in Europe.  Previously, most were assembled in Wisconsin.  Under Trump's new trade wars, each bike is slapped with a 31% tax if it comes from the United States.  Moving production to stay competitive isn't a very hard choice... I'm guessing the alternative is for the American company to just not plan on selling the product in the trade-war affected markets.

It's almost like a global economy is complicated...  if only economist would have warned us that a trade war costs participants more than any will gain.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/harley-davidson-us-eu-tariffs.html

As recently as about the first of the year, I saw an interview of deep red where Trump voters were asked their opinion now.  Several Harley workers were interviewed and were just loving life and living large!   That was before they lost 40,000 bikes a year to another plant...outside the US....   I do wonder how they feel today, knowing that is gonna get so many of them shown the door?


"Somehow I told you so..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBgeCZW3upg

[Ed W]

I'm tired of winning. Can we go back to the losing policies of the Obama administration, you know, backnwhen we profited through world trade and our president wasn't a laughingstock?

[Conan71]

Trump:  We need to lower corporate taxes or companies will move production overseas. 

Also Trump: Harley Davidson moving production to Europe isn't because of the new taxes the tariffs created, it's just an excuse!


Harley sells about 40,000 motorcycles in Europe.  Previously, most were assembled in Wisconsin.  Under Trump's new trade wars, each bike is slapped with a 31% tax if it comes from the United States.  Moving production to stay competitive isn't a very hard choice... I'm guessing the alternative is for the American company to just not plan on selling the product in the trade-war affected markets.

It's almost like a global economy is complicated...  if only economist would have warned us that a trade war costs participants more than any will gain.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/harley-davidson-us-eu-tariffs.html

I was going to call shenanigans on this one, thinking H-D's production is close to 600,000 units per year.  It's actually only about 240,000 +/- and sales have been sluggish for some time.  They've been talking about shuttering the York assembly plant where their big road bikes are built due to lagging sales and profits.  Their problems started well before the tariffs, but they certainly have not improved with the tariffs and about 18% of their production being hit with a 31% tariff.

[Hoss]

I was going to call shenanigans on this one, thinking H-D's production is close to 600,000 units per year.  It's actually only about 240,000 +/- and sales have been sluggish for some time.  They've been talking about shuttering the York assembly plant where their big road bikes are built due to lagging sales and profits.  Their problems started well before the tariffs, but they certainly have not improved with the tariffs and about 18% of their production being hit with a 31% tariff.

Has the tariff impacted the boiler business?  I seem to remember you saying it hadn't yet.

[heironymouspasparagus]

I was going to call shenanigans on this one, thinking H-D's production is close to 600,000 units per year.  It's actually only about 240,000 +/- and sales have been sluggish for some time.  They've been talking about shuttering the York assembly plant where their big road bikes are built due to lagging sales and profits.  Their problems started well before the tariffs, but they certainly have not improved with the tariffs and about 18% of their production being hit with a 31% tariff.

The year I bought my first HD they built about 18,000 engine sets (almost that many bikes...).  Small division of AMF that had been milked dry and was a dried out husk twisting in the breeze.  With a small, but dedicated, bordering on the rabid, following of die-hard supporters.  Much like lifetime membership in the NRA, HD tattoo is the only one I ever considered.  They were in Milwaukee and York at that time.  A little after that they got Reagan to put tariffs on all new Hondapottamus, Yomamaha, and Cowasucki bikes coming in.   Mainly targeting Honda... that coupled with the management buyout - getting it away from AMF - was what kept them alive.  Now we have come full circle in a manner of speaking - another so-called Republican - but this time he is doing as much damage as possible to HD, instead of trying to help.  How ironic.

That 40,000 hit is gonna hurt real bad - like you say, they have been struggling for a while.  And all the old white guys having a mid-life crisis already have their 2 or 3 or 4 bikes - all they are gonna get.  So who is left to buy them?  Kids aren't doing it, that's for sure.  It's the 70's all over again with the need for speed.


And of course, it's all about the Trump....

[Conan71]

Has the tariff impacted the boiler business?  I seem to remember you saying it hadn't yet.

It most definitely has, prices on new steel boilers have gone up due to the tariffs.  Cast iron has not taken a hit yet. 

On our H-D parts business, our oil and fuel line supplier took an instant 60% increase on his raw material cost last time he purchased 3/8" steel tubing a few weeks ago.  That cost was immediately passed on to us.  Exhaust clamps have also increased as they are made from stainless and carbon steel.

Believe me, we are feeling it on a few fronts.  The brewery and B & B aren't seeing it.  We had already purchased our tanks for the brewery prior to the tariffs being enacted and at least according to the Brewer's Association, our trade group, stainless brewing equipment out of China is exempt at least for now.

[Conan71]

The year I bought my first HD they built about 18,000 engine sets (almost that many bikes...).  Small division of AMF that had been milked dry and was a dried out husk twisting in the breeze.  With a small, but dedicated, bordering on the rabid, following of die-hard supporters.  Much like lifetime membership in the NRA, HD tattoo is the only one I ever considered.  They were in Milwaukee and York at that time.  A little after that they got Reagan to put tariffs on all new Hondapottamus, Yomamaha, and Cowasucki bikes coming in.   Mainly targeting Honda... that coupled with the management buyout - getting it away from AMF - was what kept them alive.  Now we have come full circle in a manner of speaking - another so-called Republican - but this time he is doing as much damage as possible to HD, instead of trying to help.  How ironic.

That 40,000 hit is gonna hurt real bad - like you say, they have been struggling for a while.  And all the old white guys having a mid-life crisis already have their 2 or 3 or 4 bikes - all they are gonna get.  So who is left to buy them?  Kids aren't doing it, that's for sure.  It's the 70's all over again with the need for speed.


And of course, it's all about the Trump....

According to one of the books I have on H-D history, at one point, H-D actually requested the feds drop the tariffs on their competitors once they felt they were on stable ground again.  I believe that may have happened around the time they went public in '86 and the Evo had been in production for two years.  That motor saved the company.

[cannon_fodder]

There is no doubt that HD has made previous moves and was closing down their KC plant before the trade war started:
http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/business/harley-shutting-missouri-plant-sales-decline-article-1.3787607

That article says production peaked at 1.1 million in 2005 and is down to an estimated 236,000 in 2018.  That's a really tough business climate and I'm sure we could speculate on a litany of reasons (and many would certainly play into it).

But when a company is fighting for sales they need every edge they can get.  They cannot absorb another 15% hit to sales because the President thinks it makes him look better.  I'm confident Harley prefers to make as many bikes in the USA as possible, they already have the plants and capacity here, the executives live here, and their fans want them to.  But...adapt or die, a 30% tax on Harley's made in the US and sold in the EU makes it an easy choice to build the bikes overseas. It basically forces their hand, unless they sacrifice the company for Trump's ego.

My other point was that the Trump regime cannot have it both ways.  Either patriotic companies do business in the US no matter what, or they are expected to chase lower taxes.