PAC Trust selects developer

[SXSW]

With Tulsa's growth at only about 2 to 2.2% on average, I'm not sure where everyone seems to think all these new projects will find residents or new commercial tenants right now.  I'd be playing it safe too if I were a developer.  If Tulsa could simply latch on to something that would drive more new high paying jobs to town, it might experience 4-8% growth which would justify more of these developments.

Downtown is a different market though, it's the only concentrated urban district in the metro capable of building high density residential and commercial projects.  So even while demand is relatively low it is pretty much concentrated downtown.  I see it somewhat similar to the situation in Chicago where the overall city has been losing population for years if not decades but downtown and surrounding neighborhoods are healthy and attracting new residents and commercial projects.  Agree though we would likely see a lot more projects if there were more better-paying jobs which is what initiatives like GKFF bringing the Holbertson School and TU developing the Cyber District are aiming to achieve.

[Conan71]

Downtown is a different market though, it's the only concentrated urban district in the metro capable of building high density residential and commercial projects.  So even while demand is relatively low it is pretty much concentrated downtown.  I see it somewhat similar to the situation in Chicago where the overall city has been losing population for years if not decades but downtown and surrounding neighborhoods are healthy and attracting new residents and commercial projects.  Agree though we would likely see a lot more projects if there were more better-paying jobs which is what initiatives like GKFF bringing the Holbertson School and TU developing the Cyber District are aiming to achieve.

I just left a much longer post on the Downtown Development thread.  I've wondered if Tulsa was just too far behind others in reinvesting in downtown, but that's really not an entirely true statement since the Williams Center and PAC were built in the mid-1970's.  I think the failure then was there were so many other derelict properties in the Brady and Blue Dome and other parts of downtown and little other investment that's what stifled Tulsa's overall growth.  Tulsa was also building a lot of Class A space out south at a rapid pace in those days and that did help spur suburban growth, I'm sure.

Perhaps if more new housing and entertainment venues had followed those developments and more renovation for downtown Class A office space, Tulsa could be in a different position these days.  The Williams Center and PAC in the mid '70's should have helped spur the kind of secondary investment that the BOK Center seems to have helped catalyze.  No idea if it was indifferent land owners holding out for major gains in the distant future or what happened with the lack of spark there for secondary investment or at least renovation.  Peter Mayo's acquisition of the Brady Theater (nee: Tulsa Municipal Theater) was right in that time frame and I think David Sharp may have been quietly buying up property in the area at that time but it was at least another five to ten years before anyone seemed interested in trying to get some businesses going in the near area, in those properties.

[Oil Capital]

With Tulsa's growth at only about 2 to 2.2% on average, I'm not sure where everyone seems to think all these new projects will find residents or new commercial tenants right now.  I'd be playing it safe too if I were a developer.  If Tulsa could simply latch on to something that would drive more new high paying jobs to town, it might experience 4-8% growth which would justify more of these developments.

Where are you seeing that kind of growth for Tulsa?  From 2010-2018, the metro population grew:

2010-2011:    0.64%
2011-2012:   0 .74%
2012-2013:   1.00%
2013-2014:   0.78%
2014-2015:   1.2%
2015-2016:   0.78%
2016-2017:   0.24%
2017-2018:   0.22%

So recent growth  (the last two years) is about 1/10th of the amount stated.

[Conan71]

Where are you seeing that kind of growth for Tulsa?  From 2010-2018, the metro population grew:

2010-2011:    0.64%
2011-2012:   0 .74%
2012-2013:   1.00%
2013-2014:   0.78%
2014-2015:   1.2%
2015-2016:   0.78%
2016-2017:   0.24%
2017-2018:   0.22%

So recent growth  (the last two years) is about 1/10th of the amount stated.

Even worse than I thought.

[swake]

Even worse than I thought.

Downturn in energy combined with Trump's immigration policies. Most of our net inbound immigration has been international for some time.

[SXSW]

Downturn in energy combined with Trump's immigration policies. Most of our net inbound immigration has been international for some time.

The people I know who work in oil and gas are definitely not doing as well as they once were and some have left the industry for good.  It’s not the growth engine it once was.

[Conan71]

Downturn in energy combined with Trump's immigration policies. Most of our net inbound immigration has been international for some time.

I found the second sentence of your quote curious then realized what it meant and tuned in.  I recall in the early 1980's before Oklahoma's S & L and energy crash seeing so many car tags from other states on a regular basis as recent transplants to Tulsa due to a blazing oil industry for which Tulsa was a major hub at the time.  Along with that, American Airlines brought quite a few managerial and operations employees from White Plains in the 1970's.  The oil business attracted many people from all over the country in those days.  Tulsa sort of pre-dated Austin when it came to an industry or a few industries causing thousands to flock to a metro every year.  The sh1tty economy all over the U.S. in the early '80's that Tulsa had managed to avoid until the Penn Square collapse in 1982 and finally oil plummeting to $9-10/bbl in 1986 drove people to our doorstep until 1984 or 1985.  I think Tulsa would be seeing better growth had the oil industry not decided making Houston the center pivot of petroleum was essential.

As to the first sentence:  Trump's immigration policies probably have less to do with any impact on the Tulsa area than OK HB 1804 from 2007 did.  I distinctly remember after HB 1804 passed, documented Mexicans that worked for us ended up leaving the state as they were afraid of being rounded up even though they had the proper visa and documentation. 

I've not studied immigration trends since Trump took office but I'd be surprised if we have a much better handle on illegal southern border crossings than we did 20 years ago.  He talks tough because he knows his power-base wants to hear him talk about how successful we are at keeping illegal crossings to a minimum but there's plenty of anecdotal evidence out there that it's still pretty easy to slip into the southern U.S. from Mexico.