Your Swing-State Predictions

[Oil Capital]

There have been no votes counted.

We know.  And you can surely understand what the poster meant.  

[swake]

We know.  And you can surely understand what the poster meant.  

It's meaningless. Democrats are leading in early voting in Florida, Iowa, Nevada and even North Carolina. If Obama wins Florida and just one of any of the other tossup states the election is over. If Romney loses Florida he has to win all seven other swing states.

Even if Romney wins in Florida he then has to win either Ohio or pick up 4 of the six other remaining swing states, all of which he is behind in now in the polls. And I am not counting North Carolina as a swing state, if he were to lose that this could get really ugly.

If, and this is a huge if, if Romney wins both Ohio and Florida he still will need 2-3 other swing states.

[Gaspar]

Current Pittsburg early voting totals showing a 5% lead to Republicans.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[carltonplace]

Since when?

Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.

They believe in and follow Jesus Christ (they particularly like his North American exploits).

Christian derives from Christ

Mormans align themselves as Christian. 

[carltonplace]

The best prospect about a President Romney is that since he changes his views so often he will eventually agree with me.  Then you. And then you. And so on. Thus.

[Oil Capital]

Current Pittsburg early voting totals showing a 5% lead to Republicans.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Apparently you missed the memo.  Statistics favoring Romney are meaningless.  ;-)

[Townsend]

Apparently you missed the memo.  Statistics favoring Romney are meaningless.  ;-)

It'll be best for everyone if, by this time Wednesday, Romney is meaningless.

[Gaspar]

Apparently you missed the memo.  Statistics favoring Romney are meaningless.  ;-)

Well of course, but what I'm interested in at this point is participation.  It looks like independent participation and republican participation are at record levels, and Dem participation is very low in comparison to previous elections.  Uninspired voters are going to have a big impact on this election.  I've already had several of my out of state Dem friends publicly state that they feel voting would be a waste of their time.   Very different from their sentiments in 2008.

[nathanm]

Interestingly, in North Carolina and Florida Democratic and Independent early voting turnout is up a little from 08, while Republican turnout is basically flat. That does not bode well for the polling being correct. Although I think Romney will still win NC I think it may end up being closer than expected. Florida will be a nail biter.

I'm basically seeing the same election as swake, so I won't go down the list.

Edited to add: Gassy, which state again is it on the early voting site that shows a significantly lower Democratic-affiliated vote share in early voting compared to 2008? I see none? What are you basing your statement on if not the actual turnout numbers?

Also, a little note. In 2004, I was convinced undecideds would break for the challenger. I was wrong. Don't hang your hat on it lest you be disappointed like I was.

[Oil Capital]

Interestingly, in North Carolina and Florida Democratic and Independent early voting turnout is up a little from 08, while Republican turnout is basically flat. That does not bode well for the polling being correct. Although I think Romney will still win NC I think it may end up being closer than expected. Florida will be a nail biter.

Not sure where you came up with those Florida and NC numbers.  Here are the 2008 and 2012 early vote numbers from the United Election Project:

Florida:
Democrats  1,996,265 in 2008.  Dropped to 1,917,370 in 2012
Republicans  1,632,910 in 2008.  Increased to 1,747,573 in 2012.

North Carolina:
Democrats  1,348,653 in 2008.  Dropped to 1,306,466 in 2012
Republicans   792,399 in 2008.  Increased to 860,022 in 2012.

 Washington Post says today that "In basically every state where we have good data available, Democrats performed worse than they did in 2008 but better than they did in 2010. And if you extrapolate the shift to the entire statewide vote, we’ve got a very close race in store."

Particularly, for North Carolina, the Post shows Dem/Repub early vote split going from 51/30 in 2008 to 48/31 in 2012.  For Florida, it goes from 46/37 in 2008 to 43/39 in 2012.

Also:

Colorado:  38/36 in favor of Dems in 2008 to 37/35 in favor of Repubs in 2012
Iowa:       47/29 in 2008 to 42/32 in 2012
Penn:       44/45 in 2008 to 42/47 in 2012

As the Post put it, in every state, the Dems polled worse than in 2008.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/05/final-early-vote-numbers-suggest-a-very-close-race/

[nathanm]

According to the United States Election Project, in North Carolina, Democrat, Republican and Independent turnout are all down from 08 (the Dems down slightly less than the Republicans and independents).

Huh? The North Carolina early vote percentages are:

2012: Dem 47.7% Rep 31.4% None/Other 20.9%
2008: Dem 47.4% Rep 31.6% None/Other 21%

Early vote totals are about 50,000 short of '08 (or 1.7%), though.

Florida early voting appears to have increased slightly from '08 and leans slightly more towards Democrats this year. That said, I still think Florida and NC will likely go Romney thanks to a higher crossover vote in Romney's favor. (according to opinion polls, anyway) I'm sticking with 290 on the belief that Obama will pull out wins in NV, CO, IA, OH, and NH. CO, VA, and FL are all too close to call. Hispanics in CO lean Obama enough that I think he'll win there despite the very close race. I don't think the same will hold true in Florida. Polls have consistently showed Obama's support among Hispanics below 60% in FL.

Overall, I find little to quibble with in that blog post except that the race isn't close if it's not close in Ohio, where polling clearly shows Obama up 3 and has for weeks. If Obama wins the usual suspects plus Ohio and Nevada, he's at 271 without any of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida. To win, Romney must win at least one state where he's down by 3 or more. That doesn't strike me as a close race. I think the popular vote will be more competitive, but we don't elect Presidents based on popular vote (yet).

[Oil Capital]

Huh? The North Carolina early vote percentages are:

2012: Dem 47.7% Rep 31.4% None/Other 20.9%
2008: Dem 47.4% Rep 31.6% None/Other 21%

Early vote totals are about 50,000 short of '08 (or 1.7%), though.

Florida early voting appears to have increased slightly from '08 and leans slightly more towards Democrats this year. That said, I still think Florida and NC will likely go Romney thanks to a higher crossover vote in Romney's favor. (according to opinion polls, anyway) I'm sticking with 290 on the belief that Obama will pull out wins in NV, CO, IA, OH, and NH. CO, VA, and FL are all too close to call. Hispanics in CO lean Obama enough that I think he'll win there despite the very close race. I don't think the same will hold true in Florida. Polls have consistently showed Obama's support among Hispanics below 60% in FL.

Overall, I find little to quibble with in that blog post except that the race isn't close if it's not close in Ohio, where polling clearly shows Obama up 3 and has for weeks. If Obama wins the usual suspects plus Ohio and Nevada, he's at 271 without any of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida. To win, Romney must win at least one state where he's down by 3 or more. That doesn't strike me as a close race. I think the popular vote will be more competitive, but we don't elect Presidents based on popular vote (yet).

  You are reading the USEP information incorrectly.  You have to pull up a separate chart to get the 2008 numbers. (the numbers you quoted as 2008 early turnout are actually just the percentages of the requested absentee/early ballots).

For North Carolina, you correctly state the 2012 percentages.  But the 2008 percentages were:

Dem:  51.4% (compared to 47.7% this year)
Repub: 30.2% (compared to 31.4% this year)
None:  18.5% (compared to 20.9% this year)

Please see my amended post above for more detailed information about the 2012 early voter turnout.

[nathanm]

Ah, I see now.

Glad I've been sticking with 290.

[Oil Capital]

Ah, I see now.

Glad I've been sticking with 290.

;-)  You may want to recount your electoral vote projection.

[TulsaRufnex]

You can be sure if Obama loses it will be due to voter fraud which is nonexistent.  It will be funny watching the media circle jerk.

Voter suppression is different from voter fraud... and I guess anyone who covers it suffers from "liberal" bias... go figure.
Having to wait hours to get to vote is distinctly un-American.

Christine Todd Whitman: Florida Voting Fiasco 'Inexcusable,' Similar To 'Third-World Country'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/christine-todd-whitman_n_2076800.html

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