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heironymouspasparagus
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« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2012, 03:12:46 pm » |
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Someone spends a bit too much time at unskewedpolls.com.
They are saying 311 - 227 in their latest... |
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"So he brandished a gun, never shot anyone or anything right?" --TeeDub, 17 Feb 2018.
I don’t share my thoughts because I think it will change the minds of people who think differently. I share my thoughts to show the people who already think like me that they are not alone.
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YoungTulsan
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« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2012, 03:17:51 pm » |
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BaltimorePoke
Citizen
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Posts: 19
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« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2012, 03:46:43 pm » |
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I don't think Obama will lose Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia. So O: 303 - R: 235
Silver only has Florida as 55.5% Romney, so pretty much a toss up.
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Teatownclown
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« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2012, 04:30:43 pm » |
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They are saying 311 - 227 in their latest...
And there you have it TTC has said 311 all along. I've also used the word "landslide" .....     |
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swake
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« Reply #34 on: November 05, 2012, 04:48:10 pm » |
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I thought you would be going with 420 Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311? |
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Gaspar
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« Reply #35 on: November 05, 2012, 04:49:45 pm » |
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I thought you would be going with 420
Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311?
Campaigning at cemeteries? |
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When attacked by a mob of clowns, always go for the juggler.
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cannon_fodder
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« Reply #36 on: November 05, 2012, 04:55:06 pm » |
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The betting houses have Obama favored as low as a 67% favorite and as high as an 87% favorite. If you really think teak Romney wins you can make quick money trading futures on it.
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I crush grooves.
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Teatownclown
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« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2012, 05:02:21 pm » |
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I thought you would be going with 420
Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311?
I am...but only in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. Math. |
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Hoss
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« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2012, 08:33:07 pm » |
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I don't think Obama will lose Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia. So O: 303 - R: 235
Silver only has Florida as 55.5% Romney, so pretty much a toss up.
He actually changed that tonight to Obama 52.5 for Florida, but I say 303 O - 235 R as well. I don't think it will be higher than that however... |
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Libertarianism is a system of beliefs for people who think adolescence is the epitome of human achievement.
Global warming isn't real because it was cold today. Also great news: world famine is over because I just ate - Stephen Colbert.
Somebody find Guido an ambulance to chase...
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nathanm
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« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2012, 09:39:27 pm » |
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He actually changed that tonight to Obama 52.5 for Florida, but I say 303 O - 235 R as well. I don't think it will be higher than that however...
Note that the change isn't due to any new state polls coming in from Florida, but from the latest two national polls which came in at O+1 and O+2. Silver's model, unlike some others, adjusts the state polls to bring them more in line with national polling. When the state polling is basically dead even as it is in Florida, that adjustment can flip a state. PEC just takes the median of state polling and builds an EV count and estimated national popular vote margin from there. Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset. |
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"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln
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Conan71
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« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2012, 09:06:52 am » |
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Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset.
Don't worry. I won't gloat. Not too much. |
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"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first” -Ronald Reagan
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Oil Capital
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2012, 09:43:24 am » |
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Note that the change isn't due to any new state polls coming in from Florida, but from the latest two national polls which came in at O+1 and O+2. Silver's model, unlike some others, adjusts the state polls to bring them more in line with national polling. When the state polling is basically dead even as it is in Florida, that adjustment can flip a state. PEC just takes the median of state polling and builds an EV count and estimated national popular vote margin from there. Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset. Doesn't the early voting turnout already suggest that a lot of the polls may have problems with their turnout models? |
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Townsend
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2012, 10:00:05 am » |
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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtube_gdata_player[/youtube]
Wonder how that's working out for folks?
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Conan71
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« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2012, 10:02:09 am » |
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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtube_gdata_player[/youtube]
Wonder how that's working out for folks?
I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already. |
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"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first” -Ronald Reagan
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Townsend
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2012, 10:06:05 am » |
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I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already.
Or "They sure tried to steal the election. Gotta give 'em props. They really tried." |
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