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Originally posted by iplaw
Also, what incentive would Iran have to w/draw support of Sunni terrorists and back away if we left? They don't support Sunnis anyway. Supposing you ment Shia, I have the same question? Why would they just go away?
No, I meant Sunni. There has been lately an attempt to connect Sunnis to Iran. I don't know why, wouldn't expect that to be true. But if there is any link, Iran would abandon that track immediately after we left.
As for the Shias, I believe Iranian influence will continue for some time after we've left. Not indefinitely. As long as we keep ties to the Iraqi gov't, the Shias will win any civil war. Foreign influence with the Shias or Sunnis does not trump national interests. Even Shia Iraqis have very little love for Iran, they'll be dumped when they're no longer useful.
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Which, as I have said before is a huge problem. We should have had a netural party running the country until the insurgency calmed down. Maliki is a HUGE problem.
We have to accept that more or less. No matter what we do, majority will rule in that gov't for now. In the end, as we should have known all along, the Shias will run Iraq if it's to be a democracy. Probably doesn't matter if it's Maliki or not.
We could topple the gov't, and install someone friendlier. Perhaps a Kurd, or a Sunni. But as soon as they go after the Shias, we'll have a whole new problem.
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Could you explain this more?
The easiest way to look at it is to take the Sunnis for example. When we invaded and eliminated the Baath Party, we more or less elimated the Sunni leadership. The Sunni insurgency is a swirling mass of groups with various degrees of organization, and few "all encompassing" leadership figures.
The Shia leadership is intact. Whether you're talking about the gov't, warlords, or clerics. The Shia leadership has primarily taken on the position of non-interference with the US and Iraqi gov't. While you certainly have splinter groups, smaller factions capable and willing to carry out attacks, the overwhelming majority of Shias are going to line up under the typical leadership structures. The Shia population has far more potential to do damage, than they are doing right now.
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Why? I suppose it doesn't matter as long as the Shia aren't offing the Sunnis and Kurds, but there is growing suspicion that Maliki is complicit and/or turning a blind eye towards the violence.
That's part of that question of National Identity. There is going to be a gov't in Iraq, some will like it, some won't. If the Shia majority and the Iraq gov't align, the carnage will be determined by the amount of Sunni resistance and whether or not Sunnis choose to participate in the gov't. That is where US ties to the Iraqi gov't become critical; to maintain democratic processes during a civil conflict, to help maintain a standing Iraqi military, and to guarantee the ability of Kurds and Sunni Arabs to participate.