Actually, was trying to figure out what they meant by "retail" sales (does that include groceries, cars, restaurants, etc.?) But did see this as one from CBRE for example (older numbers from 2017)
"However, e-commerce share varies depending on what retail categories are included or excluded in the retail sales figure. For example, if restaurant sales are included in overall retail sales, the 2017 e-commerce share drops slightly to 7.9%. On the other hand, if we isolate GAFO sales (generally considered typical mall category sales), that figure jumps to 26.2%. GAFO includes sales of furniture & home furnishings, electronics & appliances, clothing & accessories, sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, general merchandise and office supplies, stationery & gift stores."
And some more recent numbers... (again not sure what's included in these #s)
"E commerce penetration hit 18.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, marking online’s highest ever recorded share of total retail sales. That compared with 16.1% for the same period during the prior year. Growth in digital sales also accounted for nearly two-thirds—65.2%—of all retail gains in Q4, up from 52.2% a year earlier."
I was going by these numbers from the most "official" source I could find which say online sales averaged 10% last year:
https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdfBut I don't doubt that those numbers aren't telling the whole story. There's so much complexity when you consider whether or not online commercial purchases are considered, which industries are "retail" and which should be excluded. e.g. a tire company might still buy all of it's stock direct or maybe it buys it online, but then customers buy in-store. Or customers order online to go buy in store. Tires are pretty traditional retail item that most customers prefer to buy at a place, but it has also merged with online commerce. You could have 3 different online sales for one actual retail sale and it is probably pretty tough to tell which are which.
Or what about businesses like a construction company. They might order their supplies online to pickup at a local retailer. Is it really "online" if they're just paying the local retailer and only picking the items online? Is that really retail if it's used commercial? Commercial sales will likely dwarf many consumer-based retail markets.
The other thing is Tulsa area residents might be less inclined to use online sales. Maybe Simon has data showing that Tulsans will probably continue to use in-store retail, perhaps longer than other places where online may be more popular. In general, Oklahomans seem a bit slower to hop on technology trends like online ordering, but a "decline" isn't the concern, it's a mass extinction event that could be coming for retail everywhere in the US as online sales skyrocket over the coming decades.
I hate that it's being built, and it's being done even as we collectively sigh and shake our heads and wonder what they're thinking. What a waste and yet another sales tax dispersal outlet. Bad for Tulsa in general, good for Jenks/Simon short term, and bad for the environment.