The 2010 - 2012 number came from the Census Department:
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=070405_1_A1_hThes35833During the less census period we grew at 4.4%. If that was a constant growth rate we'd hit the 1mil mark in the 2-3 year time frame they are mentioning. Several factors could alter it of course: different projections, different stat area, stupid presumptions.
1mil is a fun number. Too bad it is so damn spread out.
That TW article was complete and utter nonsense. I don't know what numbers they were using, but they weren't US Census Bureau numbers.
According to the US Census, Tulsa metro's population in 2006 was 891,185, not the 897,752 stated in the article. According to the US Census, the population as of April 1, 2000 was 859,532. That gives us a growth for those six years and 3 months of 3.7% NOT 4.4%. But to correctly project forward, we have to use the same time periods, so we need to start at July 1, 2000, not April 1, 2000. That gives us a 6-year growth rate of 3.5%
NOTE, the 4.4% growth that is incorrectly cited in the TW article is the total growth for the six-year period. It is NOT an annual rate. Thus, even if we correctly apply the TW's mysterious and incorrect numbers, we wouldn't get to 1 Million until about 2020. If we apply the correct 3.5% rate, it's more like 2025. I have never seen a reasonable projection based on correct numbers that has the Tulsa metro passing 1,000,000 within the next five years.
The Bizjournals study was based on US Census Bureau numbers and estimates. Here is a link to the methodology:
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/253.html