"People with $800K to spend in the Tulsa market are looking for something with a lawn, some space from their neighbors, and most likely a suburban school district or a private school. If they have school-age children they likely do want something with a yard."
I concur that the $800K mark was too high for downtown at this point. But I want to point out that you don't need all "people with $800K to spend" to want an urban lifestyle. Just a few. If we have 500 people in that market (I don't know if that is too high or too low), only 10-25 need to have a strong preference for urban living for this experiment to work. Maybe there are not 10-25 such people, but it could be a small minority of rich people and still support high end condo living downtown.
Indeed most of the boom in downtown living is still a minority preference. Most renters live in non-urban areas outside downtown. But those few renters willing to pay a bit extra to live downtown still create demand. Now, a few developers are looking for the small minority of owners who want to own downtown. We'll see how they do. I suspect $800K won't work. But $400K for 10-25 people might work.
And the higher the price that works, the more developers will flock to create more housing downtown. That's at least a little reason to cheer for success on high end downtown living.
Some day, $800K condos might be realistic albeit with a limited demand so long as you had plenty of “starter” stock in the first place to get people accustomed to the urban lifestyle where they could acclimate to something larger as their family and income grows.
If you haven’t caught this in my previous posts: I moved into a studio in Center Plaza Apartments (now Central Park Condos) in 1987 when I was 21. I was perfectly good with no maintenance responsibilities, spartan furnishings, and no yard. Even with incredibly limited night life and few dinner choices I loved the urban experience. There was still a Homeland store within walking distance. If i needed to file a small claims case (I worked for a finance company at the time) or go to the library, that was convenient as well and did not require a car. We had a dry cleaner drop off, gym, bar, and possibly even a hair salon in Center Plaza back then so there were some amenities to make it as convenient as possible. A year or so later, I got married and needed more space. We moved to a 1 bedroom further up in the building. It worked great for our needs for awhile.
I believe the real impetus to purchase a home was the adage we were throwing money away on rent and not gaining any equity, plus thinking we might have kids in the near future. By mid 1989 most of the HUD surplus was gone as well as any steals on a multi bed condo at Liberty Towers but condos still had a stigma after the bust of the mid ’80’s. I’d always liked the brick gingerbread homes along 15th St. and that’s what we eventually bought. I liked the idea of having a garden, etc. but if 1989 downtown Tulsa had been like 2016 downtown Tulsa it’s entirely possible we might have looked at buying something and staying in the IDL and buying something larger as our family and income grew. There just was not anything practical to move on to at the time within downtown.
So, I do believe if you have a broad range of condos and apartments you can fill the bigger ticket ones if there was a good enough stock of lower priced ones to help build the demand for later in life. Tulsa’s problem is, not many of us have been exposed to the urban lifestyle by actually living in the urban core like people in Manhattan or Boston grew up with. With few exceptions, if you grow up with a suburban orientation, your tendency is likely to move further from the core as your family and income expand.
Had things turned out different, I might move back to the downtown area some day but a business opportunity out in NE New Mexico has pretty well put that possibility to rest. My wife and I feel bittersweet about leaving with the dawn of a new Mayoral administration which seems to appreciate orderly development and how well Tulsa’s urban core is coming together. These are exciting times for Tulsa and for those of us who dreamed for decades of what it could be and how we could be a part of it.
That demand for $400 to $800K dwellings in the IDL and near there will come eventually. Whether it’s 5, 10, or 20 years down the line is anyone’s guess.