2012 Political Predictions

[we vs us]

The primary thing that Mitt has going for him is decades of turning failing businesses into billion dollar companies. He also has a calm, presidential delivery that by it's very nature puts others on the defensive. If it's economic recovery people are interested in, then he may be an attractive candidate.  He has his share of luggage though, and did far better in the private sector than he did as governor over a very liberal state.  That could go either way for him, it could indicate his ability to compromise and work within accepted liberal frameworks, or it could position him as too much of a moderate for the Tea Party conservatives.

I don't disagree with that.  I think he's got to play to some very different constituencies (running the gamut from the TP up through a confused mishmash of independents) and that will be hard to straddle.

The economy will be the big wildcard for the campaign.  I believe that -- regardless of the actual numbers -- if it feels like we're making progress, then Obama will keep the White House.  If it feels like things are either circling the drain or at best as if things are limping along with no change, then Romney (or whoever the GOP person is) will win.  But at this point I truly think it's about perception vs. reality.  So even if unemployment hasn't changed much, if people think it's about to, then that's a win for O.

[Conan71]

or it could position him as too much of a moderate for the Tea Party conservatives.

If Mitt ends up with the nomination, the Tea Party is too pissed off at Obama and his policies to stay home and not vote.  They will turn out in droves to vote against Obama no matter who the GOP nominee is.  One thing which could screw the pooch for Romney is if Ron Paul goes independent.  He might pull a good 10% of the popular vote.

Of course, it's still seven months to the convention and lots can happen in that time.  Depending on how Tea Partiers turn out for primary voting, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, or Bachmann might have a good chance.  Huckabee was a complete surprise in the last election.  I don't think he was on anyone's radar scope this time four years ago.

[Gaspar]

I don't disagree with that.  I think he's got to play to some very different constituencies (running the gamut from the TP up through a confused mishmash of independents) and that will be hard to straddle.

The economy will be the big wildcard for the campaign.  I believe that -- regardless of the actual numbers -- if it feels like we're making progress, then Obama will keep the White House.  If it feels like things are either circling the drain or at best as if things are limping along with no change, then Romney (or whoever the GOP person is) will win.  But at this point I truly think it's about perception vs. reality.  So even if unemployment hasn't changed much, if people think it's about to, then that's a win for O.

The dangerous thing about unemployment that lingers this long, is that businesses find other ways to be more productive at less cost.  This makes it harder for them to justify any additional work force while an atmosphere of uncertainty still exists.

If there is anything that President Obama produced as a product of his presidency that will carry through history as a monument to his policies, it will be the concept of "uncertainty."  It will become a historical theme just as "malaise" did for president Carter.  I think we will see a lot of that term in the next eight months.

[Teatownclown]

If Mitt ends up with the nomination, the Tea Party is too pissed off at Obama and his policies color to stay home and not vote.  They will turn out in droves to vote against Obama no matter who the GOP nominee is.  One thing which could screw the pooch for Romney is if Ron Paul goes independent.  He might pull a good 10% of the popular vote.

Of course, it's still seven months to the convention and lots can happen in that time.  Depending on how Tea Partiers turn out for primary voting, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, or Bachmann might have a good chance.  Huckabee was a complete surprise in the last election.  I don't think he was on anyone's radar scope this time four years ago.

You can't be serious....

[Conan71]

You can't be serious....

I wouldn't clown around on that.

[guido911]

Well this should settle everything:

Mexico's Grand Warlock predicted US President Barack Obama would fail to win re-election and two more Latin American leaders would be diagnosed with cancer, in a traditional New Year's forecast Tuesday.

The Grand Warlock, or "Brujo Mayor" in Spanish, leads a Mexican tradition of "brujeria" or sorcery centered in the southeastern city of Catemaco.

The Grand Warlock, also known as Antonio Vazquez, said that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who claims to have beaten an unspecified cancer, would have a "terrible relapse."

Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, former Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguay's Fernando Lugo have been diagnosed with cancer in recent years.

Chavez suggested last month that the spate of cancer among leftist leaders could be a US plot.

Vazquez, who sports a long grey beard, put the cancer cases down to "witchcraft" against Latin American leaders, during a Mexico City news conference giving his 25th annual predictions.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.5d4866e77b6f7d7b4a432c8d01267956.9a1&show_article=1


Close the thread now.

[we vs us]

If Mitt ends up with the nomination, the Tea Party is too pissed off at Obama and his policies to stay home and not vote.  They will turn out in droves to vote against Obama no matter who the GOP nominee is.  One thing which could screw the pooch for Romney is if Ron Paul goes independent.  He might pull a good 10% of the popular vote.

Of course, it's still seven months to the convention and lots can happen in that time.  Depending on how Tea Partiers turn out for primary voting, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, or Bachmann might have a good chance.  Huckabee was a complete surprise in the last election.  I don't think he was on anyone's radar scope this time four years ago.

If you'd asked me back in 2010, I would've agreed with you completely, re: the Tea Party's utter dedication to Obama's defeat.  But the primaries have indicated that the Tea Party has more in mind than simply knocking off O.  The endless search for the not-Romney seems to suggest that the TPers are looking for someone who is first and foremost ideologically pure rather than someone who is simply the guy who can unseat Obama.  In fact, they're kind of stubbornly avoiding the middle of the road option in favor of pretty much every other possibility out there, no matter how ill-advised.  

I think you;re right about, Paul . . . and that's why if he goes 3rd party he'll scuttle Romney completely and put Obama back in the White House.  

[Conan71]

If you'd asked me back in 2010, I would've agreed with you completely, re: the Tea Party's utter dedication to Obama's defeat.  But the primaries have indicated that the Tea Party has more in mind than simply knocking off O.  The endless search for the not-Romney seems to suggest that the TPers are looking for someone who is first and foremost ideologically pure rather than someone who is simply the guy who can unseat Obama.  In fact, they're kind of stubbornly avoiding the middle of the road option in favor of pretty much every other possibility out there, no matter how ill-advised.  

I think you;re right about, Paul . . . and that's why if he goes 3rd party he'll scuttle Romney completely and put Obama back in the White House.  

Paul could well be this year's Perot.  They even seem to share the same crazy gene.

[Townsend]

Rick Perry just announced he's heading back to Texas to reassess the campaign.

[Townsend]

Santorum should've declared victory before everyone went to sleep.  "this is what I look like...for future reference."

[Gaspar]

Bachman will announce that she is withdrawing at 10am this morning.

[we vs us]

This is actually good news for Mitt.  If Bachmann and Perry both drop out, that's a significant narrowing of the field.  Santorum is unlikely to be competitive in states outside of Iowa (especially not in NH, which is up next), so that means there's a block of Santorum-y votes floating around in the other primary states.  Gingrich is all but finished, IMO, so that means that we're going to very quickly get a Romney v. Paul primary battle.  And Paul's staying power really is up in the air.  He has a lot of pros in his column (dedicated fan base, money, more organization than the rest of them except for Romney) but also some negatives, too (perceived as a loon, as marginal, and his views -- while deeply held - fly in the face of current orthodoxy).  Paul isn't necessarily more conservative, he's weirdly conservative, and that may set off the undecided GOPers.  

And Huntsman.  Poor Huntsman.  He never really had a chance. 

[RecycleMichael]

Wait a week. Huntsman will finish third in New Hampshire and become the comeback kid.

[Teatownclown]

Well this should settle everything:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.5d4866e77b6f7d7b4a432c8d01267956.9a1&show_article=1


Close the thread now.

Thanks for the reminder....I think Breitfart has that gene too.....

Is Huntsman even in NH? I thought he threw that state off....

[Townsend]

Kind of a no doy post but...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/04/source-bachmann-will-acknowledge-the-reality-of-iowa-vote/?hpt=hp_t2


BREAKING: Source: Bachmann to suspend campaign

(CNN) - Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is suspending her campaign, a GOP source familiar with her plans told CNN Senior Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash on Wednesday.

A Republican source familiar with Bachmann's plans told CNN Chief National Correspondent John King earlier Wednesday Bachmann "will acknowledge the reality of Iowa's vote" a at Wednesday morning press conference.

King's source said, "she deserves the chance to say this in her own words but it is safe to say we don't see a viable way forward," and confirmed that a planned post-Iowa trip to South Carolina "isn't going to happen."

King's source is involved in the campaign's post-Iowa deliberations but insisted on anonymity and on being characterized only as a GOP source familiar with Bachmann's thinking.