I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.
Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.
The pollsters and linesmakers have Obama winning NC by more than Hillary wins Indiana. Given the population disparity, that certainly gives Obama the popular vote edge. Straight percentage wise he should do much better. Following RCP polls conglomerations = Obama +162,500 votes between the states.
The bigger question is how will the delegates dice up.
Following the polls, Obama gets 8% in NC and Hillary 5% in Indiana. At 134 and 73 delegates respectively that translates roughly to (stupid delegate rules) 109 for Obama and 98 for Hillary. Or Obama +11.
Together eliminating the delegate gains as well as 2/3rds of her popular vote gains. Add the recent split in super delegates and he will finish today (poll numbers) further ahead today than he was going into Pennsylvania.
So now the math!
Following those poll numbers: Pledged/All delegates
Obama: 1600/1856
Clinton: 1436/1707
217 Pledges delegates remaining. OR, KY, WV, PR, MT, and SD. They look to split those states... so lets just saw them in half.
1964 Obama / 1816 Clinton (+1 Clinton for rounding). Obama + 148.
268 Super Delegates outstanding. Clinton would need a reversal of the trend and a better than 55% take of the remaining super delegates to end with more delegates than Obama.
She would need 70% in all the remaining states (including IN and NC) to come out ahead in pledged delegates. If she loses ground tonight as predicted she will need 80+% of the remaining vote to over take his pledge delegate lead.
Clinton should do well next week in WV (28 delegates) but doesn't appear she will approach the 70% mark. Obama will counter with as well of a performance in larger Oregon. Clinton should do well in PR and KY, but Obama should do well in MT and WY.
I think this analysis has it right:
quote:
The highly-talented but inexperienced "Big Brown" decisively won the [race], defeating [the only female] in the race who had to settle for second-place. [The Female] had run a strong and gritty race, but was simply outrun by the brilliant winner. Immediately after the finish, as the [candidates] were slowing down, [the second place finisher] broke both of her front ankles and had to be euthanized as she lay crippled.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_rev__bil_080504_kentucky_derby_3a_pred.htm
Recall Hillary picked Eight Bells in the derby, clearly pointing towards the only female in the field to win the day. She can't win unless Obama joins the occult, drops out, or for some other reason pledged delegates break hear way big time. Which might herald problems for democrats in the future.
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.
Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.
RM,
Last week I saw a Hillary DC officio having lunch with a local die hard Repug.
Give it up, Rm. Give it up.
The Devil
In honor of their performance at Cain's Tonight a little Hot Tuna Tune....with a minor change
Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away
I said, Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away
Here You come Babe as big as sin
I can tell what you been doin by the shape your in
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
If you've been doin' like I think ya been doin, ya can't do that round here,
If you've been doin' like I think ya been doin, ya can't do that round here
Here you come mama big as hell
I can tell what you've been doin by the way you smell
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
Now whats that smells like fish oh babe
I really would like to know
Now whats that smells like fish pretty mama
That ain't pork & baby that ain't pie
Thats the stuff that got you by
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
Yes you gotta leave my house This mornin'
Get your yes yes out of my door
I said Yes you gotta leave my house This mornin'
Get your yes yes out of my door
Ashes to ashes & dust to dust
What ya gonna do when that damn thing rusts
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
The Kentucky derby was 19 boys against one girl. Kind of like the odds for me on this forum.
The horse name closest to Obama was named Monba. He finished last.
Obama also voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill. Maybe he could be the horse named Cool Coal Man. He finished 15th.
Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.
Heh, and even if Obama is either of those other horses, it's better than a 2nd place and a short trip to the glue factory. Are you trying to say even if Hillary wins over Obama she'll be put down in the general election?
Why are analogies on athletics our principle vehicle of discussion?
"Baseball is very big with my people. It figures. It's the only way we can get to shake a bat at a white man without starting a riot."
Dick Gregory
The polls took a turn for the worst today RM.
Polling today has Obama +2 in Indiana and +14 In North Carolina. Exit polling shows a large Obama victory in NC and a race in Indiana within the margin of error (both mirroring prior polls). Poll numbers can be full of crap, but not good news.
IF there is a wash in Indiana (Clinton by > 5) and a 10+ pt loss in North Carolina - I predict Hillary throws in the towel. She has some arguments left (but Florida, but Michigan, but the big states, but I can still), but they are realistically fading. I imagine the supers would shift at that point too...
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
"Baseball is very big with my people. It figures. It's the only way we can get to shake a bat at a white man without starting a riot."
Dick Gregory
Love it.
Saw Gregory several times when he came to TU in the late 60's and early 70's to speak.
He used to be a heavy smoker and way overweight. Became a health guru. A true stand up American classic. My favorite book of his was "You Don't Have to Be Black to be a ****** (n word)".
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.
Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.
I believe that only undeclared can vote in NC primaries--not republicans. Which is good news for Obama--he does well with independents. I am not sure how much of the Limbaugh effect is having, but at least some republicans are voting for Hillary just to mess up the democrats. I imagine that Hillary will win Indiana, but that NC will go for Obama by a larger percent. I think that Obama will get more popular votes today, given that the turnout in NC is already huge.
RM--you have been beating me in predictions the last several weeks, but looks like you were very much wrong tonight. Double digit leads--maybe over 15% in NC, while Indiana looks like little more than 2% win for Hillary (if that).
Can you think of any argument now for why Hillary should stay in the race (other than to destroy Obama)?
She's going nowhere. "Full speed on to the White House," said Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
She's going nowhere. "Full speed on to the White House," said Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.
Full speed on with four flat tires, a leaky gas tank and a thrown rod.
"The voters of Indiana have broken the tie and put me out in front. From here it is full steam ahead to the white house!"
I think that's why I can't stand her, that level of spin just bothers me. There is spin, and then there is just lying.
It wasn't a tie, you were behind. After yesterday, you are behind MORE than you were starting the night. In fact, you are behind MORE than you were going into Penn. So you the "tie" was not broken in your favor. And you did not come from behind to win - you have been favored in Indiana since the first poll ever conducted and Obama finished within the margin of error of this best polling in Indiana.
It appears she is willing to spend her own money to stay in the game, but for how long (she loan $6.4million over the last week)? I'm sure I'll have to run numbers for RM a little later, but my predictions from yesterday still hold pretty close. She needs 70+% of the remaining vote and a 60+% break in Super Delegates to get to the magic number... or 145% of the remaining delegates to get to her number of delegates (see, that would indicate more delegates than remain).
Maybe she's hoping Rev. Wright will make another campaign speech for her this week?
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.
Bigot.
quote:
Originally posted by rwarn17588
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
She's going nowhere. "Full speed on to the White House," said Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.
Full speed on with four flat tires, a leaky gas tank and a thrown rod.
Anyone still believe she's going to drop out before the convention. There were reports she just loaned her campaign another $6.5mm. She just doesn't know when to give up.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by rwarn17588
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
She's going nowhere. "Full speed on to the White House," said Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.
Full speed on with four flat tires, a leaky gas tank and a thrown rod.
Anyone still believe she's going to drop out before the convention. There were reports she just loaned her campaign another $6.5mm. She just doesn't know when to give up.
If she loses the nomination she is going for the nuclear option. She'll take out the whole party.
quote:
Originally posted by Gaspar
If she loses the nomination she is going for the nuclear option. She'll take out the whole party.
It's hard to use the nuclear option when you don't have any weapons on you.
Seriously ... look at the situation. About the only argument she had left -- that she would win the popular vote -- got steamrolled Tuesday night. Obama gained 210,000 votes in his column. He's now ahead by 800,000.
He's ahead by 150 delegates, with fewer than 200 needed to clinch.
He's won 32 of 47 states.
Hillary can keep on, like Huckabee did. It's a free country. But like Huckabee, it's going to look foolish to keep using that strained, optimistic language in the face of stark reality.
Whatever leverage she had remaining in the Democratic Party, she's p*ssing it away fast.
Andrew Sullivan had a blog post yesterday that was interesting. It's the black vote that sealed Hillary's fate. It's the black vote that greatly helped her husband become president. But it's the black vote that turned her from the prohibitive favorite into a loser. It's a positively Shakespearean turnabout.
That's what makes me wonder about Obama's chances in the fall. I honestly think that white blue collar families who voted in huge numbers for Clinton may vote for McCain or stay home if Obama is the nominee. The black vote is statistically small compared to blue collar whites, and if they defect it's bad news for Obama.
I rather look forward to watching debates with Obama and McCain, and would rather face him in the general than Clinton anyways, so it works for me.
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
That's what makes me wonder about Obama's chances in the fall. I honestly think that white blue collar families who voted in huge numbers for Clinton may vote for McCain or stay home if Obama is the nominee. The black vote is statistically small compared to blue collar whites, and if they defect it's bad news for Obama.
I rather look forward to watching debates with Obama and McCain, and would rather face him in the general than Clinton anyways, so it works for me.
Maybe.
But you'd better remember that both Clinton and Obama have stayed very close to McCain in the national polls, despite the sometimes-rancorous Democratic campaign and the fact McCain essentially has been on a honeymoon since he wrapped up the nomination.
The honeymoon's about to end. And the fact the GOP is having a terrible time attracting voters and money can't be an encouraging sign for them.
The republican party is in shambles. They have no chance in the fall to win the presidency and I predict many democrats winning close raise by the coattails of the democrat turnout.
McCain allows the republicans to lose with respect.
McCain has been on vacation for a while, but I don't think he's the least bit concerned about having to run against Obama. This election is going to come down to more than talking about "hope" and "change" especially in the debates to come. Obama can't simply say, "no thanks" to one-on-one debates McCain as he did with Clinton, and expect to win. After Obama's poor showing at the last debate on ABC I don't suspect he's excited to face off against someone of McCain's stature and experience.
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
The republican party is in shambles. They have no chance in the fall to win the presidency and I predict many democrats winning close raise by the coattails of the democrat turnout.
McCain allows the republicans to lose with respect.
With your record for picking winners lately this makes me feel pretty good.
[:P]
Wow, when MSNBC tells it like it is you hav eto figure the game is over:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx
If Clinton wins her remaining states by 60%, Obama only wins his by 55%, and you count Florida and Michigan (giving ZERO to Obama) - Hillary can win by ~10,000 popular votes. If you follow the poll numbers, she probably won't win by 60% and Obama will probably win Oregon by more than 55%. OR, if you give Obama the "not Hillary" votes in Michigan she comes up short. And of course, if you don't count FL or MI she can not statistically win.
Per delegates. If you count Michigan and Florida in the manner that the Hillary camp proposes - she needs to win 75% of the remaining delegates. A margin of victory that is simply impossible to obtain.
Add the fact that a couple Super delegates have defected today, and it looks like it's a done deal. Basically, she can not win the pledged delegate battle nor the popular vote (two of her favorite talking points). Her only chance is to sway super delegates, and I don't see that happening.
In spite of her rhetoric, I still stand by my prediction that she throws in the towel. Unless she thinks WV and another $5mil of her cash will fool the super delegates into thinking she's still alive.
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
McCain has been on vacation for a while, but I don't think he's the least bit concerned about having to run against Obama. This election is going to come down to more than talking about "hope" and "change" especially in the debates to come. Obama can't simply say, "no thanks" to one-on-one debates McCain as he did with Clinton, and expect to win. After Obama's poor showing at the last debate on ABC I don't suspect he's excited to face off against someone of McCain's stature and experience.
Feh. Obama had one bad debate out of what? Seventeen? Twenty-three? (Can't honestly remember, but there were a bunch ... well over a dozen.)
I'm certain Obama will be fine in debating McCain and isn't nervous about it. Unflappability is definitely one of his strong suits.
As for McCain, I'd recommend that he take some trucker speed or something, because he sounds sleeeeeepy when he talks.
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
The republican party is in shambles.
Nice back-spin.
[}:)][}:)]
quote:
Originally posted by rwarn17588
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
McCain has been on vacation for a while, but I don't think he's the least bit concerned about having to run against Obama. This election is going to come down to more than talking about "hope" and "change" especially in the debates to come. Obama can't simply say, "no thanks" to one-on-one debates McCain as he did with Clinton, and expect to win. After Obama's poor showing at the last debate on ABC I don't suspect he's excited to face off against someone of McCain's stature and experience.
Feh. Obama had one bad debate out of what? Seventeen? Twenty-three? (Can't honestly remember, but there were a bunch ... well over a dozen.)
I'm certain Obama will be fine in debating McCain and isn't nervous about it. Unflappability is definitely one of his strong suits.
As for McCain, I'd recommend that he take some trucker speed or something, because he sounds sleeeeeepy when he talks.
Most of those debates were not one-on-one debates, which is all that's left for him from here on out. The scrutiny is much greater when the numbers decrease. Unflappability certainly does not describe what most of us saw in the last debate.
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
Most of those debates were not one-on-one debates, which is all that's left for him from here on out. The scrutiny is much greater when the numbers decrease. Unflappability certainly does not describe what most of us saw in the last debate.
True. But, again, it was just one bad debate out of several. And I think you're assigning too much value to debates nowadays.
Bush had, by all accounts, terrible debates with Kerry in 2004, and Bush still won the election.
And, again, you've got 70-80 percent of the people who think the country is seriously off-track, according to multiple polls. You think a majority of them are going to vote for a guy who's going to be painted as a continuation of a enormously unpopular president? I don't.
Try and paint away, but he's about as far away from W as you can be and still gets wear the uniform.
You should hope for your party's sake that that was just "one bad debate" and not a sign of weakness under pressure. Most of those previous debates were friendly and he's about to enter quite an adversarial process from here on out.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.
Bigot.
You too....there's nothing bigotted there.....only through your eyes
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.
Bigot.
You too....there's nothing bigotted there.....only through your eyes
Everybody run. FOTD has arrived, and he's going to crap up another thread ... right when it was interesting and civil.
[}:)]
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
Try and paint away, but he's about as far away from W as you can be and still gets wear the uniform.
You should hope for your party's sake that that was just "one bad debate" and not a sign of weakness under pressure. Most of those previous debates were friendly and he's about to enter quite an adversarial process from here on out.
The contrast between the democrats and republicans this coming election are huge. There will be large advances by the democrats on Obama's coat tails in November. The black vote will really make a big difference.
Ippy, Can you explain your vision of this "adversarial process?" How do you see that "debate" process helping or hurting your candidate?
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.
Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.
RM,
Last week I saw a Hillary DC officio having lunch with a local die hard Repug.
Give it up, Rm. Give it up.
The Devil
In honor of their performance at Cain's Tonight a little Hot Tuna Tune....with a minor change
Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away
I said, Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away
Here You come Babe as big as sin
I can tell what you been doin by the shape your in
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
If you've been doin' like I think ya been doin, ya can't do that round here,
If you've been doin' like I think ya been doin, ya can't do that round here
Here you come mama big as hell
I can tell what you've been doin by the way you smell
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
Now whats that smells like fish oh babe
I really would like to know
Now whats that smells like fish pretty mama
That ain't pork & baby that ain't pie
Thats the stuff that got you by
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
Yes you gotta leave my house This mornin'
Get your yes yes out of my door
I said Yes you gotta leave my house This mornin'
Get your yes yes out of my door
Ashes to ashes & dust to dust
What ya gonna do when that damn thing rusts
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...
Great show last night. I fear we know each other.
quote:
Originally posted by rwarn17588
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.
Bigot.
You too....there's nothing bigotted there.....only through your eyes
Everybody run. FOTD has arrived, and he's going to crap up another thread ... right when it was interesting and civil.
[}:)]
[}:)]
I thought I smelled the wafting of a FauxTurd being dropped while I was at lunch.
Your antics amuse but they also indicate an inability to accept others.
A message from Jerry:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBlXEGLXlV0
Maybe we should call you a bigot, would that make you feel more accepted since that's your favorite category to place others is?
Just you angry white guys hate. I also use other categories like morons.
How the hell do you know what any of us look like. Have you met any of us before?
Please cool it, you two.
Please mind your own business. If you'd like to get things back on track you could address any of the number of points I, myself or others have made today. Direct your complaints to FOTD, until he made an appearance the thread was relatively calm.
No. Both of you help destroy any conversation by name-calling and demanding that the other answer your questions.
This is supposed to be a conversation, not two bullies calling each other names so loud that no one else can or wants to talk.
Please cool it.
It's all part of the chaos process RM, but you are right. That was devilish of me.
How Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Vote Shares Everywhere Else
TruthIsAll
The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the (51-49) split in the total vote. This analysis will show that were it not for Operation Chaos, Obama would have definitely won Indiana and very possibly Texas. Well, at least one blogger gets it.
The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first group consists of the 40-50% who were driven by Operation Chaos. The other consists of moderates who are strongly for Obama.
Final Exit poll data shows that since Operation Chaos began on March 4 in OH and TX, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has risen from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton's benefit.
Prior to March 4 (before Operation Chaos), 7 primaries allowed Republicans to participate. Obama won their vote by an average of 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share.
Since Operation Chaos began on March 4, 5 primaries have been open to Republicans. Clinton won their vote by an average 57-41%. Obama won 2 of the 5 primaries (but should have won 4). He had an average 51-47% share in the 5 primaries.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OperationChaos.htm
Mind-bendingly complex, but these are the details where the devil resides. The educated masses see right through what is going on.
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
Please cool it.
Seriously. Now you're crapping up this thread. Go play ref somewhere else where it's wanted. If you don't like this thread then start another one.
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
Please cool it.
Seriously. Now you're crapping up this thread. Go play ref somewhere else where it's wanted. If you don't like this thread then start another one.
I started this one, smart guy.
Why do you feel that you have to fight everybody? How can you type with your hands clenched in a fist all the time?
I don't care if you started the thread or not. If you don't like the conversation then buzz off. You have no right to control the posters on this forum, nor the content of those posting around here.
Please take off your Internet Sheriff's badge.
If you look at the thread, there WAS a very productive conversation going on until YOU and the FauxTurd showed up.
He cut her support from catholics, union households and women dramatically.
The Republicans will wish they'd held back on Rev Wright until fall. It will be no more relevant than Bush the National Guard Awol drunk...a card played to early to matter at the end.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/how_obama_beat_the_line.html
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
I don't care if you started the thread or not. If you don't like the conversation then buzz off. You have no right to control the posters on this forum, nor the content of those posting around here.
Please take off your Internet Sheriff's badge.
If you look at the thread, there WAS a very productive conversation going on until YOU and the FauxTurd showed up.
Man, you really have no clue do you.
You tell me to buzz off after you ruin a conversation. Here are you two posts that you must consider "good" conversation.
I thought I smelled the wafting of a FauxTurd being dropped while I was at lunch. Maybe we should call you a bigot, would that make you feel more accepted since that's your favorite category to place others is?I am not the internet police, but I started a thread and you decided to use it as another opportunity to try to bully people around.
(http://i231.photobucket.com/albums/ee304/lil_ladybug72/stopposting_cat.jpg)
Thanks RM....but he's not worth the time. There's never anything productive these types offer. Better to put them on your mental ignore.
Actually, these types are so seperate from today's mainstream America it is acceptable to read their babel. That way you know what the angry white boys are thinking.....
quote:
Originally posted by sgrizzle
(http://i231.photobucket.com/albums/ee304/lil_ladybug72/stopposting_cat.jpg)
[}:)]
quote:
I am not the internet police, but I started a thread and you decided to use it as another opportunity to try to bully people around.
W shed a tear for you when he found out you've been bullied.
(http://pwbeat.publishersweekly.com/blog/wp-content/2007/07/bush_crying_medal_of_honor.jpg)
Now that's a great pic of Dumbya.
Let's play "caption this"!
I will start....
"My stock portfolio is down like everyone else's"
This seems to be that Obama is facing many hints,Seems to be very bad.
----------------
hemamali
Addiction Recovery North Carolina (//%22http://www.addictionrecovery.net/north-carolina%22)
Clinton in the Democratic primary on the ground that her experience makes her a more attractive cnadidate than Obama.Since Senator Clinton has only slightly more experience as a Senator than Senator Obama, it is difficult to know what experience the Star refers to. Her experience dodging sniper bullet in Bosnis? Her experience bringing peace to Ireland?Her experience in stopping the ratification of NAFTA? Senator Clinton's experience is significally greater than Senator Obama's only in the area of being married to Bill Clinton. And being married to Bill Clinton is not one of the constitutional
duties of the president. Clinton saved her candidacy with her win in Pennsylvania, and she campaigned aggressively in Indiana in hopes of denying Obama a victory next door to his home state of Illinois. Indiana is home to large numbers of blue-collar workers who have been attracted to the former first lady, and she sought to use her call for a federal gas tax
holiday to draw them and other economically pinched voters closer.Obama leads Clinton in delegates won in primaries and caucuses.Despite his defeat two weeks ago, he has steadily whittled away at her advantage in superdelegates in the past two weeks and trails 269.5 to 255.
-----------
kimrennin
North Carolina Treatment Centers (//%22http://www.treatmentcenters.org/north-carolina%22)
Sorry for the Spam folks, the offenders have been locked out.