I see what is happening with all of the big investment banks getting bailed out and I have to wonder, did we learn nothing from the 1990s S&L debacle?
Of course we didn't learn anything from it. Lenders get in trouble with risky lending vehicles every 7 to 10 years and expect the gov't to bail them out. That's exactly what consumer bankruptcy reform amounted to a few years ago- another bail-out because banks got stupid and loaned lifestyles to borrowers they could not afford.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
Of course we didn't learn anything from it. Lenders get in trouble with risky lending vehicles every 7 to 10 years and expect the gov't to bail them out. That's exactly what consumer bankruptcy reform amounted to a few years ago- another bail-out because banks got stupid and loaned lifestyles to borrowers they could not afford.
yeah, but the problem there was they made it harder on the little guy declaring bankruptcy, while corps get to get away almost scott free when they declare bankruptcy.
Good timing, Inteller. Here's a satisfying little rant from E.J. Dionne:
quote:
The Wall Street titans have turned into a bunch of welfare clients. They are desperate to be bailed out by government from their own incompetence, and from the deregulatory regime for which they lobbied so hard. They have lost "confidence" in each other, you see, because none of these oh-so-wise captains of the universe have any idea what kinds of devalued securities sit in one another's portfolios.
So they have stopped investing. The biggest, most respected investment firms threaten to come crashing down. You can't have that. It's just fine to make it harder for the average Joe to file for bankruptcy, as did that wretched bankruptcy bill passed by Congress in 2005 at the request of the credit card industry. But the big guys are "too big to fail," because they could bring us all down with them.
Enter the federal government, the institution to which the wealthy are not supposed to pay capital gains or inheritance taxes. Good God, you don't expect these people to trade in their BMWs for Saturns, do you?
from the Washington Post. (//%22http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/17/AR2008031702154.html?hpid=opinionsbox1%22)
What our federal government is doing right now is grounds for a coup. I can't see how any of this can be legal. These guys need to crash and burn. If I lose big on a stock pick no one ever comes and bails me out.
quote:
Originally posted by inteller
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
Of course we didn't learn anything from it. Lenders get in trouble with risky lending vehicles every 7 to 10 years and expect the gov't to bail them out. That's exactly what consumer bankruptcy reform amounted to a few years ago- another bail-out because banks got stupid and loaned lifestyles to borrowers they could not afford.
yeah, but the problem there was they made it harder on the little guy declaring bankruptcy, while corps get to get away almost scott free when they declare bankruptcy.
I think that's pretty much what I said...
You all seem upset with the republican government's failure in over sight. Don't you see it's a "Brownie" moment?
The depression about to hit us is the logical result of 28 years of Insane Conservative economic and social policies.
quote:
Originally posted by FOTD
You all seem upset with the republican government's failure in over sight. Don't you see it's a "Brownie" moment?
The depression about to hit us is the logical result of 28 years of Insane Conservative economic and social policies.
well, someone here is insane but I'm not sure it is 28 years old. Maybe 12 or 13.
Recession? Depression? Shocking Gallup Poll...
http://allspinzone.com/wp/2008/03/18/recession-depression-shocking-gallup-poll/
"Remember - and don't (ever)let any of your acquaintances forget - what we're experiencing is a direct result of GOP fiscal policies that began during Ronald Reagan's reign, and that were elevated to the high art of social theft during the Bush years."
"Is 'Conservative Economics' Bankrupt? Is Bear Stearns SH*T in the Woods?"
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=1617
"WE WERE AGAINST FEDERAL INTERVENTION BEFORE WE WERE FOR IT ... IN OTHER WORDS, AFTER THE LITTLE GUY, BUT BEFORE THE BIG GUY, GETS CRUSHED."
You watch, this will make Enron look like nothing...
quote:
Originally posted by inteller
I see what is happening with all of the big investment banks getting bailed out and I have to wonder, did we learn nothing from the 1990s S&L debacle?
Um, well...we learned that the S&L crisis was in 1980, not the 1990's. But, hey, time flies when you're having fun...
They must be talking about couples outside the OKC oily elite....
"In Oklahoma City, couples planning their weddings are demonstrating uncustomary thrift, forgoing Dungeness crab and special linens. "
Slump Moves From Wall St. to Main St
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/business/21econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
"For the country as a whole, recent data shows that the economy is deteriorating at an accelerating rate. "
"In Oklahoma City, Aunt Pittypat's Catering has lost one-fifth of its business in the last two months, as $25,000 weddings are scaled down to smaller affairs.
"People are just being a lot more conservative," said Maggie Howell, a co-owner. "They want crab and seafood, but they're settling for cheese displays."
The economic advisors to Dumbya must be saying "let them eat cheese" as they try to deal with this paralysis...
U.S. near economic collapse?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/03/quiet-coup-towards-nationalization.html
"The Federal Reserve and Bank of England denied a report on Saturday that they were in talks over possibly using public funds to make mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities to ease the global credit crisis."
"The Bush administration is resisting the proposal.
"The credit markets themselves are really in uncharted waters," Rubin said. "A lot of trouble could lie ahead."
"To be sure, the Fed's Splashy "Sunday Night Special" bailout of Bear Stearns is rather trivial in both its implications and consequences when compared to Thursday's Quiet Coup,"
Trillions in losses coming. The derivitives monster...
http://www.timesdaily.com/article/20080323/ZNYT01/803230363&cachetime=5
"The Federal Reserve not only taken has action unprecedented since the Great Depression — by lending money directly to major investment banks but also has put taxpayers on the hook for billions of dollars in questionable trades these same bankers made when the good times were rolling."
"A milestone in the deregulation effort came in the fall of 2000, when a lame-duck session of Congress passed a little-noticed piece of legislation called the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. The bill effectively kept much of the market for derivatives and other exotic instruments off-limits to agencies that regulate more conventional assets like stocks, bonds and futures contracts."
Why would anybody with half a brain support any person in on the march to war in Iraq. We need a complete overhaul of Congress and the Executive branch. Let's see, that would mean everyone in the Oklahoma delegation!
Connecting all the dots: Economy a victim of war
By Don Rose
March 24, 2008
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-oped0324rosemar24,0,5397085.story
"Clearly, the economy is a casualty of war."
"We could have assured Social Security and Medicare funding for decades to come with the $3 trillion now down the Iraqi sinkhole, but let's set that aside for a moment.
Just consider the kind of broad economic stimulus we really require to provide jobs during this crisis and help pull us out of recession. We should be making a massive investment in health services, roads, schools and other infrastructure—an investment two or three times the relatively puny $168 billion program recently signed into law.
But we can't afford to invest what we really need because we're so deep in debt. We're at the economic mercy of all the foreign nations who loaned us billions to fight this needless war."
Tax cuts did not help. All they did was put the sheep to pasture. It's slaughter time now.
quote:
Originally posted by PonderInc
quote:
Originally posted by inteller
I see what is happening with all of the big investment banks getting bailed out and I have to wonder, did we learn nothing from the 1990s S&L debacle?
Um, well...we learned that the S&L crisis was in 1980, not the 1990's. But, hey, time flies when you're having fun...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_Loan_Crisis
it started in the late 80s and most definitely ended in the 1990s....and the fallout occured in the 90s.
White House Scrubs Web Site On The Economy
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/03/21/white-house-scrubs-web-site-on-the-economy/
"What a difference a week makes, especially when it comes to the rollercoaster American economy. No where is the impact of looming recession and the near-meltdown on Wall Street clearer than on the White House web site. Just days ago, the site boasted about President Bush?fs glorious stewardship of the U.S. economy. Now, the White House?fs economy web page reflects the mad scramble to ward off the twin crises of the housing market and the financial system.
A cached version of the White House web site from March 16, 2008 showed the last vestiges of rosy optimism and unbridled Bush boosterism. (The Google cache has since been updated.) In the upper left hand corner, an elegant animation proclaimed ?"President Bush?fs actions are moving our economy forward,"?"18,000 jobs created in December 2007,?" ?"Over 8.3 million new jobs created since August 2003?? and ?gUnemployment rate remains low at 5%.?"
The usual fuzzy math was there as well, cynically designed as always to sell making President Bush?fs tax cuts for the wealthy permanent:
?"The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are set to expire in less than three years. If Congress allows that to happen, 116 million taxpayers will see their taxes go up by $1,800 on average.?"
Some signs of the downturn were already present as well. Bush?fs disastrous appearance last week before the Economic Club of New York was front and center. And a run down of the steps being taken to confront the imploding housing market were highlighted as well.
But four days later, the main White House economy web page has gotten an emergency face-lift. The eye-catching animation crowing about Bush leading the economy forward is gone. After the U.S. shed 63,000 jobs in February and new jobless claims this week jumped by 22,000, the text about past job creation became history. And even the verbiage about making the tax cuts permanent has been deleted. And just days after the Federal Reserve intervened with its massive Bear Stearns bailout to halt the building Wall Street panic, the White House web site proclaims:
?"The President remains deeply concerned about the housing issue and strongly believes that any government policies must be responsible. Government actions often have far-reaching and unintended consequences. Any time the government intervenes in the market, it must do so with clear purpose and great care.?"
quote:
Originally posted by inteller
quote:
Originally posted by PonderInc
quote:
Originally posted by inteller
I see what is happening with all of the big investment banks getting bailed out and I have to wonder, did we learn nothing from the 1990s S&L debacle?
Um, well...we learned that the S&L crisis was in 1980, not the 1990's. But, hey, time flies when you're having fun...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_Loan_Crisis
it started in the late 80s and most definitely ended in the 1990s....and the fallout occured in the 90s.
Penn Square was a significant collapse in Oklahoma which started a whole house of cards tumbling in 1982.
I believe Repblic Bank in Tulsa collapsed around 1983 as I seem to remember there was about a seven or eight month-long global chase of Wes McKinney, the president. Republic was essentially an un-insured institution operated much like an S & L. They were into risky real estate and energy lending.
FOTD, I get the impression that you are from old money and work that money instead of yourself. How are YOUR finances doing? Mine are doing fine. No where near collapse.
All of my neighbors, my friends and family around the country, and indeed most people in the nation are doing just fine. I seriously do not know anyone that has lost their job or had their mortgage foreclosed on - and I know people in 15-20 States that I would hear about if they lost their homes or their jobs. From laborers in Iowa, to investment bankers in NYC, to Physiologists in San Fran to Attorney's in Seattle and retirees in Virginia.
You have been shouting DOOM and GLOOM for well over a year now. Did you shout all during the 1990's and then raise your hands in glee when the economy shook? You must have been disappointed when it didn't fall. I hope you are disappointed again.
Things certainly are not great. But government regulation had as much to do with causing the problem as anything else. Encouraging home ownership with tax incentives, mandating sub-prime quotas on banks (you must make X% of bad loans), and essentially guaranteeing a market for mortgages. But for some reason you think they will solve the problem?
Here's the deal: you can not legislate stupidity (borrowing $350K for a house while making $60K a year) nor greed (banks making those loans).
No matter what new regulations are put in place, you can't stop it. Every time regulations have gotten tighter, it has been followed by another scandal. That is not an argument against regulation, it is an argument against knee jerk regulation.
Not too mention there is an inverse relationship between regulation and efficiencies. More regulation not only slows domestic growth but it discourages foreign investment. If we regulated our economy to be risk free it would be return free as well.
Some basic elements need to change, I agree. But it is the federal policy of encouraging excess borrowing on the private level as well as doing so itself - not regulating the behavior of business that needs to change. A good start would be to let companies that took these risks as well as people who made poor choices suffer the consequences of those choices - lest they be repeated in short order.
If the government bails out Joe McMansion's mortgage, I demand they cut me a check for living within my damn means. If they want to give C. E. Officer a state sponsored Golden parachute then why don't I deserve it? I've never once lost $50 BILLION in other peoples money.
While I'm at it. The Federal Reserve is supposed to check inflation, NOT worry about the economy. Stop playing politics with our monetary policy or it will lose its worth.
But damn if we don't agree on one thing, the government has sure screwed things up and things need to change (I just don't think government is the answer to government).
quote:
Originally posted by cannon_fodder
FOTD, I get the impression that you are from old money and work that money instead of yourself. . . . .
You have been shouting DOOM and GLOOM for well over a year now.
CF I'm going to resist taking you on head to head over your anti-regulationeering because I agree with you that FOTD is a massive Fountain of Negativity.
I mean, it's bad, but it ain't THAT bad.
Actually CF the Fed has a dual mandate.... price stability AND sustainable growth. In normal times the 2 can coexist but in times of stress, like now, the Fed can be forced to choose one over the other. Notwithstanding the policy decision to send $150 billion dollars in rebate checks, the Fed has clearly made the decision that growth is more important right now than price stability, i.e. low inflation. While the longer term impact of this decision is debatable, and I do for one feel that we will have to pay an inflation price for the current monetary and fiscal decisions, the reality is that if the Fed did not ease aggressively that we were looking at a massively deflationary debt liquidation cycle. I worked for a failed bank, FNB OKC, that fell victim to the deflation we felt in this part of the country in the early and mid-eighties... and most everyone that lived in Oklahoma at that time was impacted by the deflation of oil prices... whether they were in the oil business or not. As a bank, FNB OKC was not nearly as aggressive as some of our competitors in the oil business but, in the end it bacame apparent that we were ALL in the oil business.
The interesting part of that event though was that while declining oil prices were deflationary to us it was stimulative to the rest of the economy. And the fact is Oklahoma, texas, Kansas, and Colorado were not as big a drag as the the stimulus was to the rest of the country so while we suffered the major population centers recovered. Unlike that period though, the real estate issue is much bigger and more pervasive than our little oil bust... the numbers are a LOT bigger.
A capitalistic economy has 2 main enemies... hyper-inflation and deflation. Given that, the most pressing risk TODAY is not hyper-inflation(note- in reality a capitalistic economy works best with controlled inflation. Hence the Fed's stated goal of 1 to 2% inflation) but deflation. The Fed has many tools that can deal with both of these issues but the risk for the Fed today is deflation caused by a debt liquidation cycle that would be much more damaging that somewhat higher inflation in the future.
The range of outcomes for monetary and fiscal policy decisions undertaken today is VERY wide. Leverage does that to you. It magnifies the good and the bad. As many posters on here would agree, our country, and many of us personally, would be much better off if we did not have the level of debt on our balance sheets that we do. But, we are where we are. I too worry about the long term implications to the dollar and watch in amazement as commodities rise (keep in mind that $100/barrel oil and $10 a bushel wheat is not all bad for us okies) but tend to think that the best way to get the dollar stabalized is to improve the growth prospects for our economy... then the dollar will follow.
In total, I try not to take the FOTD tack and extrapolate our current economic distress to an end that means we should all be buying canned goods and ammunition. No doubt we have issues to deal with economically but I bet in 30 years that businesses will be in business to make money... kind of like they are now and that it is a bad bet to think our economy is going to collapse....
Thanks for that BOK. You are correct int he dual purpose. But I guess it seems they are sacrificing any notion of inflation control to cut rates on policy concerns. Though you raise an interesting point with deflationary pressure from lower home prices (tighter credit, etc.).
Can't really argue with your statements.
As an investor, I'd think it quite fool-hearty to talk down the economy unless one is heavily vested in businesses which would stand to gain by a crash in the economy. There are many people poised to make money off the fall-out of the housing market, for example.
The psychological effects of recession and depression-talk on business is proven. Start talking recession and companies will stop hiring, put off capital expenditures, and even cut back production which sets off ripples down the line.
Good point Conan..... it is always important to remember that whensomebody is espousing a particular viewpoint or forecast it is probably in their best interest, read they will profit financially, for their view to come to fruition. Stepping back from the noise of the press, remember they are a business that profits from more eyeballs and bad news sells better than good news, and just looking at the numbers gives one more reasons to be optimistic.
There is a TON of cash on the sidelines that will need to be put to work. While cash is good if prices are falling, as an asset class cash does not achieve any long term financial goals. One of the Fed's jobs during times like this is to push the "riskless" rate down to the level that one eventually has to do something else with their money. Short interest on the NYSE, a measure of bearishness, is at historical highs. Buying a stock, or any other asset, can be a trade or an investment but, a short is ALWAYS a trade. And while certain sectors of the economy are certainly in the doldrums, many others are not. As CF mentioned earlier, the feedback I get from those that are IN business is that while things are tougher than they were it is nowhere near as bad as it has been in times past. However, those that are not IN business and are getting a pulse on the economy based soley on what they read or see on TV are scared to death.
The Fed's response to the Bear Stearns issue can be agreeable or not but the reality is they had no choice. And hey, if you are in the business of marketing or mantaining foreclosed properties on behalf of financial institutions then these are the best of times.....
That's all I'm left to believe is that when an investor like FOTD is dumbing down the economy, he's got something to gain by it or he has absolutely no grasp on how it affects his investments.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
That's all I'm left to believe is that when an investor like FOTD is dumbing down the economy, he's got something to gain by it or he has absolutely no grasp on how it affects his investments.
I mean, yeah, but . . . isn't that sensitivity to speech proportional to the possible effect the speaker can possibly have on an economy with a GDP of $13 trillion? I mean, FOTD's posts are a drag, no doubt, but his individual effect on the national -- not to mention global -- economy is less than nothing.
I don't know Wevus, I sold all my assets and buried them in a can because he told me cash was the best investment. That and I only by Berkshire Hathaway A shares, just like AOX. Who hates big business... but only invests in one of the largest businesses in the world.
The horror.
we vs us.... it isn't the effect FOTD has on the national economy. It's the effect the economy can have on FOTD's personal wealth. I would certainly hope that FOTD has taken steps to either protect or enrich his wealth based on his feelings about what is going on in the economy. And that is one of the great things about our "free" markets.... a person can profit from both the success or failure of those markets. FOTD obviously has strong feelings about what is going on and can certainly cite a number of published articles that confirm his assessment of our economy's direction. If he isn't acting on those feelings then he is leaving a bunch of money on the table..... or is he?
All of the articles and issues that have been cited in this thread are known and, as such, are discounted in the markets today. the key fact is that the market is anticipatory.... and there are many signs that the market is beginning to "look through" today's and even tomorrow's weakness and anticipate better times ahead. I am not saying the market is always right but you don't consistently make money betting against the Fed and the markets.
quote:
Originally posted by cannon_fodder
I don't know Wevus, I sold all my assets and buried them in a can because he told me cash was the best investment. That and I only by Berkshire Hathaway A shares, just like AOX. Who hates big business... but only invests in one of the largest businesses in the world.
The horror.
Consistency, my dear CF, is the hobgoblin of lesser minds.
quote:
Originally posted by we vs us
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
That's all I'm left to believe is that when an investor like FOTD is dumbing down the economy, he's got something to gain by it or he has absolutely no grasp on how it affects his investments.
I mean, yeah, but . . . isn't that sensitivity to speech proportional to the possible effect the speaker can possibly have on an economy with a GDP of $13 trillion? I mean, FOTD's posts are a drag, no doubt, but his individual effect on the national -- not to mention global -- economy is less than nothing.
One person like FOTD/AOX does not affect it.
One person like Alan Greenspan (who should keep his mouth shut as he is no longer the chairman of the Fed) his words can move financial mountains. So can the President or prominent political candidates.
It's the cumulative effect of several million FOTD's plus the media talking down the economy which can literally cause people to lose jobs and orders to slow down, not one loose screw unless that screw has the platform and respect like Greenspan.
Oil and gas prices are keeping my company busy and in the black. I'm seeing though that orders for large equipment from manufacturing sectors is starting to lag and get postponed. Speaking with my contacts, it's a fear of future sales slowdowns which are putting off capital investment, not a real slow down in their sales numbers at this point.
IOW- they are hanging on to money and not contributing to growth of the economy, due to rumors and speculation.
Oil and gas prices are keeping my company busy and in the black. I'm seeing though that orders for large equipment from manufacturing sectors is starting to lag and get postponed. Speaking with my contacts, it's a fear of future sales slowdowns which are putting off capital investment, not a real slow down in their sales numbers at this point.
IOW- they are hanging on to money and not contributing to growth of the economy, due to rumors and speculation.
Conan....now that is a bit telling, however, do you get the feeling it is due to a disbelief that oil prices can stay where they are or is it economic weakness? In many ways our economy would benefit from lower oil prices while the energy business would suffer a bit.
quote:
Originally posted by bokworker
Oil and gas prices are keeping my company busy and in the black. I'm seeing though that orders for large equipment from manufacturing sectors is starting to lag and get postponed. Speaking with my contacts, it's a fear of future sales slowdowns which are putting off capital investment, not a real slow down in their sales numbers at this point.
IOW- they are hanging on to money and not contributing to growth of the economy, due to rumors and speculation.
Conan....now that is a bit telling, however, do you get the feeling it is due to a disbelief that oil prices can stay where they are or is it economic weakness? In many ways our economy would benefit from lower oil prices while the energy business would suffer a bit.
The energy business would still be making obscene amounts of money at $80/bbl crude and $7/mcf of natural gas.
The rest of the economy could benefit very well from lower oil prices, specifically if it would get the cost of diesel ($3.74 last I looked) back down into the lower $2.00 range. That's driving prices up on everything. $3.09 gas means workaday folk who live paycheck-to-paycheck don't have as much to spend on food, new clothing, fishing gear, toys, new cars, or vacations this summer. It can have the effect of pushing people to buy more fuel-efficient cars, but if they don't have a car payment or can't qualify for a car payment, chances are, they are not a new car customer.
Oil sector greed definitely hurts the little guy and there's not much can be done about that other than the gov't offering more "tax rebates" to the lowest income-earners.
Anything oil or energy-related is going great guns, and would continue to do so even at $60/bbl even though that might put a little crimp in the oil business spending orgy. What the high prices are accomplishing is updating a lot of oil and gas refining and delivery infrastructure which has not been updated extensively since the 1980's. Of course, this binge is a bit scary, due to memories people have of the early '80's when oil plunged from $40+/bbl to less than $9.
Higher energy prices and uncertain future supplies are causing more investment in alternative energy development. My company doesn't make a dime off solar, wind, or hydro. We can get our snouts in the trough in bio-diesel, ethanol, biomass reactors and other liquid and solid fuels though.
It's durable and perishable goods manufacturing is where they are holding off on new capital projects, though we have had some some who simply changed their project to include used rather than new equipment, so it's not a total bust for us, but it doesn't help any of our manufacturing partners on up the supply chain.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by we vs us
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
That's all I'm left to believe is that when an investor like FOTD is dumbing down the economy, he's got something to gain by it or he has absolutely no grasp on how it affects his investments.
I mean, yeah, but . . . isn't that sensitivity to speech proportional to the possible effect the speaker can possibly have on an economy with a GDP of $13 trillion? I mean, FOTD's posts are a drag, no doubt, but his individual effect on the national -- not to mention global -- economy is less than nothing.
One person like FOTD/AOX does not affect it.
One person like Alan Greenspan (who should keep his mouth shut as he is no longer the chairman of the Fed) his words can move financial mountains. So can the President or prominent political candidates.
It's the cumulative effect of several million FOTD's plus the media talking down the economy which can literally cause people to lose jobs and orders to slow down, not one loose screw unless that screw has the platform and respect like Greenspan.
Oil and gas prices are keeping my company busy and in the black. I'm seeing though that orders for large equipment from manufacturing sectors is starting to lag and get postponed. Speaking with my contacts, it's a fear of future sales slowdowns which are putting off capital investment, not a real slow down in their sales numbers at this point.
IOW- they are hanging on to money and not contributing to growth of the economy, due to rumors and speculation.
I figured that was what you meant. And yeah, if we're talking Chatty Cathies like Greenspan, he has perhaps on outsize affect on markets.
quote:
Originally posted by twizzler
quote:
It's the cumulative effect of several million FOTD's plus the media talking down the economy which can literally cause people to lose jobs and orders to slow down,.....
A similar thing happens when multiple voices hyper-promote an economy to an unrealistic bubble state, which then bursts, and people lose jobs and orders slow down.
Very true. Promise of better things to come will get people to borrow more money than is reasonible or certainly more than they'd borrow on lifestyle if the economy were headed toward recession.
The housing debacle which seems to be the focus of this is a result of government enticing the greed of lenders by requiring them to make a quota of normally hands-off loans.
Call me guilty of promoting, but Tulsa is a great place to be right now, and should be for some time, economically-speaking.
Good (and very fair) point twizzler.
We tend to get more cheerleaders as more have bets on the pass line than don't pass. Though, like the at the table the don't pass bet is always an unpopular one.
- - -
On the oil note: I was told in my O & G classes at TU that at $60 a barrel every well makes money and it was worth opening up old wells. At $80 a barrel it is worth adding infrastructure to existing wells. So I'd have to say at $100 it is worth spending ANYTHING to squeeze the last drops of oil from a well.
Conventional wisdom (read:talking heads) think oil will come off to $85 or so, but the plateau has been reached and sustained long enough that there is no incentive to come off any more than that. The threat of dropping demand is no longer valid with China and India picking up speed and bidding against US and Europe for the oil.
If only there were vast pools of domestic oil in uninhabited federally owned lands somewhere outside the visible coastlines of Florida or California or way up in Alaska that contained trillions of dollars worth of oil and gas. Wouldn't that be great?
Long term we need to kick the habit at the consumer level, no doubt about that. Industrial NEEDS oil, consumers could be taught to cut way, way back.
Interesting how economic news is either glass half full or half empty.
Business section of the World this morning:
House prices are down an average of 10% or so. Some would spin that to be a disaster. I suppose so if you are a builder and you wind up taking a hit, but if you've been a builder for some time, then you benefitted from the orgy of over-heated markets. Probably not the best news for a bank trying to sell foreclosures either.
However, this is great news for the consumer and it translates to the over-inflated housing market correcting- by as much as 19% in Miami.
This is something which needed to happen. Should be welcome news to RE agents, title companies, loan originators, etc. as it will help stimulate more sales.
I do not mean to hold myself out as an expert on this Twiz... but my understanding is that the remaining production would be squeezed from already explored and most often existing sites. In some instances the rate of pumping made it worthless as an existing well (the first 25% is easy and gets harder and harder), in other's the depth was not worth drilling for, and still more instances the replacement of infrastructure wasn't worth continuation of production.
With higher prices, these things now make sense. So you really wouldn't need exploratory wells to increase or maintain production (recall it was falling off before the recent spike).
Gas, on the other hand, is rumored to be near a boom in Oklahoma. I hear persistent rumors of a huge new deep field in SW Oklahoma.
Again, not an expert and I no longer work in the industry. So take it with a grain of salt.
quote:
Originally posted by cannon_fodder
Gas, on the other hand, is rumored to be near a boom in Oklahoma. I hear persistent rumors of a huge new deep field in SW Oklahoma.
Again, not an expert and I no longer work in the industry. So take it with a grain of salt.
I've got a beautiful bright blue large piece of equipment headed to SW Oklahoma end of this week, with many more to follow...
Yes, NG is doing very well out that way.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by cannon_fodder
Gas, on the other hand, is rumored to be near a boom in Oklahoma. I hear persistent rumors of a huge new deep field in SW Oklahoma.
Again, not an expert and I no longer work in the industry. So take it with a grain of salt.
I've got a beautiful bright blue large piece of equipment headed to SW Oklahoma end of this week, with many more to follow...
Yes, NG is doing very well out that way.
You live in a bubble. It will pop all over you....
Eight Steps to a Trillion-Dollar Meltdown
By Charles R. Morris
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4240
"Who is to blame for the U.S. financial crisis? A review of the road to ruin reveals a course littered with more villains than heroes."
"All current rescue proposals being floated in the U.S. Congress have the taxpayer buying up the loans the banks no longer want, absorbing the losses just as taxpayers did in the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s."
step 1: allow supreme court to appoint a**hole as president.
step 2: allow a**holes to reelect a**hole as president.
step 3-6: pretend a**hole isn't screwing up everything he touches.
step 7: blame democrats in congress, not a**hole, for screwing everything up.
step 8: vote for older, dumber a**hole.(Economic Slump Underlines Concerns About McCain Advisers.... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/01/AR2008040102860.html?hpid=topnews "McCain is counting on people having very short memories and not connecting some pretty obvious dots here,")
FOTD, you certainly are more problem-oriented than solution-oriented. I bet you were a difficult child.
I find it hard to believe a person of your means isn't riding the oil and gas train right now.
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
FOTD, you certainly are more problem-oriented than solution-oriented. I bet you were a difficult child.
I find it hard to believe a person of your means isn't riding the oil and gas train right now.
You should not assume things Conan.
I have offered many solutions. You chose to ignore impeachment, recounts, enforcement of our constitution, getting out of Iraq (never going in there to begin with...), choosing real leaders, better educating our populace, questioning authority, putting regulation back in government, giving a hand up through social programs (for those that can least afford them) etc. etc. etc.
You know Conan, at times we are all difficult but you can't put me in with you sheep.