LA Times (//%22http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-vacant28aug28,0,1813154.story?coll=la-home-business%22) has an interesting story on the practical implications of the real estate mess...foreclosures causing blight where there shouldn't be blight.
Tulsa has been lucky these last few years, in my opinion. The real estate bubble didn't reach us, and I believe that almost any family with a job or two can still land a good house with a reasonable payment on a fixed-rate loan. I theorize that this translates into fewer variable rate, borderline loans, fewer foreclosures, and ultimately, stable real estate prices. But that's just my theory. Anybody know better?
Does anybody out there know if Tulsa has seen a lot of bad loans? Will we scoot through this national real estate crises unscathed or will banks need to start hiring mowing companies?
quote:
Originally posted by Chicken Little
LA Times (//%22http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-vacant28aug28,0,1813154.story?coll=la-home-business%22) has an interesting story on the practical implications of the real estate mess...foreclosures causing blight where there shouldn't be blight.
Tulsa has been lucky these last few years, in my opinion. The real estate bubble didn't reach us, and I believe that almost any family with a job or two can still land a good house with a reasonable payment on a fixed-rate loan. I theorize that this translates into fewer variable rate, borderline loans, fewer foreclosures, and ultimately, stable real estate prices. But that's just my theory. Anybody know better?
Does anybody out there know if Tulsa has seen a lot of bad loans? Will we scoot through this national real estate crises unscathed or will banks need to start hiring mowing companies?
The number of foreclosure filings reported in the U.S. last month jumped 93 percent from July of 2006 and rose 9 percent from June, the latest sign that homeowners are having trouble making payments and finding buyers during the national housing downturn.
But Oklahoma is not among states following the trend. Foreclosures in the state were up 17.67 percent from June but down 34.38 percent since July 2006.
Nationwide, there were 179,599 foreclosure filings reported during July -- NewsOK (//%22http://newsok.com/article/3107636/1187749260%22)I can't find it now, but I remember KOTV doing a story on how foreclosures were up 49% in Tulsa County over '06.
While I think Tulsa will escape the worse, even without the less convential mortages Tulsa is and will see some housing problems. My understanding is that, banks across the nation have tightened lending for all types of mortgages, even traditional. So houses that have sold easily in the past sit on the market for much, much longer. There was a story on NPR the other day about Kansas City, which like Tulsa, did not have a severe housing bubble. Nevertheless, homeowners are finding difficulty selling:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=13916304
Again, I don't think Tulsa will be as bad as other states, and nothing like the 80s. Still, I imagine that those 4000 square foot homes out in the suburbs may not get quite the return that some had hoped. Or they may sit on the market for quite some time.
Good eye, IP. Thanks.
quote:
Originally posted by Chicken Little
Good eye, IP. Thanks.
A good friend of mine owns a granite/marble company here in town and he's saying that business doesn't appear to be slowing down at this point, even with his new builder clientele. He really thinks we won't see any appreciable decrease in new home construction over the next 5 years.
I think one aspect that may drive the housing market here is that people are going to be fleeing the coasts to places like Tulsa where the cost of living is more affordable. Once people find out banks won't let them over leverage anymore and realize when one can buy in California for 600K or one can buy in Oklahoma or Texas for 200K, we begin to look more attractive.
quote:
Originally posted by pmcalk
While I think Tulsa will escape the worse, even without the less convential mortages Tulsa is and will see some housing problems. My understanding is that, banks across the nation have tightened lending for all types of mortgages, even traditional. So houses that have sold easily in the past sit on the market for much, much longer. There was a story on NPR the other day about Kansas City, which like Tulsa, did not have a severe housing bubble. Nevertheless, homeowners are finding difficulty selling:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=13916304
Again, I don't think Tulsa will be as bad as other states, and nothing like the 80s. Still, I imagine that those 4000 square foot homes out in the suburbs may not get quite the return that some had hoped. Or they may sit on the market for quite some time.
I agree. The market will definitely have to readjust itself after pricing shakedowns return property to reasonable values.
Most of the additions that have been started in and around Tulsa in the last few years seem to have large houses in the $300-400K and up price range. And with the "creative financing" packages off the market, it may be a difficult time for the local builders, and anyone that is trying to sell in this price range. A down payment sufficient to obtain a conventional loan can be substantial for this type of house, and it is getting more difficult to get a mortgage over $417K (jumbo loan). Due to the number of defaults nationally, many lenders are not offering these any more.
There are many variables, but the rule of thumb is that your house payment is approximately 1% of the mortgage amount (including taxes and insurance,and of course depending on the interest rate). For example, the payment on a $300,000 mortgage would be approximately $3,000 per month. And $300K seems to be at the low end of the currently constructed houses.
Are there that many families/individuals in Tulsa, even with a 2-income family, that can afford those monthly payments? What jobs do they have? Even some I know where both husband and wife are in management or professional positions that cannot afford this, especially in addition to their other debt, such as car/boat/other toy payments.
Meanwhile, well-maintained smaller homes are selling like crazy.
Before we moved out here, we had a 950-square-foot home. Our Realtor told us it would sell quickly. We had an offer the same day it went up for sale.
^Yet, all over town, builders are tearing down houses under 2000 square feet, and replacing them with huge, $300k-500k homes.
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Danger
Most of the additions that have been started in and around Tulsa in the last few years seem to have large houses in the $300-400K and up price range. And with the "creative financing" packages off the market, it may be a difficult time for the local builders, and anyone that is trying to sell in this price range. A down payment sufficient to obtain a conventional loan can be substantial for this type of house, and it is getting more difficult to get a mortgage over $417K (jumbo loan). Due to the number of defaults nationally, many lenders are not offering these any more.
There are many variables, but the rule of thumb is that your house payment is approximately 1% of the mortgage amount (including taxes and insurance,and of course depending on the interest rate). For example, the payment on a $300,000 mortgage would be approximately $3,000 per month. And $300K seems to be at the low end of the currently constructed houses.
Are there that many families/individuals in Tulsa, even with a 2-income family, that can afford those monthly payments? What jobs do they have? Even some I know where both husband and wife are in management or professional positions that cannot afford this, especially in addition to their other debt, such as car/boat/other toy payments.
WELCOME!!! Love your moniker
quote:
Originally posted by iplaw
quote:
Originally posted by Chicken Little
LA Times (//%22http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-vacant28aug28,0,1813154.story?coll=la-home-business%22) has an interesting story on the practical implications of the real estate mess...foreclosures causing blight where there shouldn't be blight.
Tulsa has been lucky these last few years, in my opinion. The real estate bubble didn't reach us, and I believe that almost any family with a job or two can still land a good house with a reasonable payment on a fixed-rate loan. I theorize that this translates into fewer variable rate, borderline loans, fewer foreclosures, and ultimately, stable real estate prices. But that's just my theory. Anybody know better?
Does anybody out there know if Tulsa has seen a lot of bad loans? Will we scoot through this national real estate crises unscathed or will banks need to start hiring mowing companies?
The number of foreclosure filings reported in the U.S. last month jumped 93 percent from July of 2006 and rose 9 percent from June, the latest sign that homeowners are having trouble making payments and finding buyers during the national housing downturn.
But Oklahoma is not among states following the trend. Foreclosures in the state were up 17.67 percent from June but down 34.38 percent since July 2006.
Nationwide, there were 179,599 foreclosure filings reported during July -- NewsOK (//%22http://newsok.com/article/3107636/1187749260%22)
I can't find it now, but I remember KOTV doing a story on how foreclosures were up 49% in Tulsa County over '06.
Yes. Let's wait and see what the five year trends are....
quote:
Originally posted by pmcalk
^Yet, all over town, builders are tearing down houses under 2000 square feet, and replacing them with huge, $300k-500k homes.
This is also causing major property tax increases for the smaller, older homes that remain in these neighborhoods (primarily in midtown).
For a really informative website on the mortgage markets --
www.ml-implode.com
When I first discovered this site on the 22nd, the number was at 135. Good articles on the lending industry updated daily.
Oh, be sure and visit the forum. Lots of good insider info there. I think most of the posters are in the mortgage business. Especially read this forum thread --
http://www.autodogmatic.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1256&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
Scary stuff!
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Danger
quote:
Originally posted by pmcalk
^Yet, all over town, builders are tearing down houses under 2000 square feet, and replacing them with huge, $300k-500k homes.
This is also causing major property tax increases for the smaller, older homes that remain in these neighborhoods (primarily in midtown).
No more than the automatic across the board %5 allowable annually.
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Danger
Most of the additions that have been started in and around Tulsa in the last few years seem to have large houses in the $300-400K and up price range. And with the "creative financing" packages off the market, it may be a difficult time for the local builders, and anyone that is trying to sell in this price range. A down payment sufficient to obtain a conventional loan can be substantial for this type of house, and it is getting more difficult to get a mortgage over $417K (jumbo loan). Due to the number of defaults nationally, many lenders are not offering these any more.
There are many variables, but the rule of thumb is that your house payment is approximately 1% of the mortgage amount (including taxes and insurance,and of course depending on the interest rate). For example, the payment on a $300,000 mortgage would be approximately $3,000 per month. And $300K seems to be at the low end of the currently constructed houses.
Are there that many families/individuals in Tulsa, even with a 2-income family, that can afford those monthly payments? What jobs do they have? Even some I know where both husband and wife are in management or professional positions that cannot afford this, especially in addition to their other debt, such as car/boat/other toy payments.
In my business I have been constantly amazed at how many people can afford nice homes. I was kind of shocked when the national news was reporting 400,000 home loans as being something special. That would seem mid range for most of the homes I work in. A good portion of the homes I work in are generally 750,000 on up to 10 million or more. And yes I have had quite a few customers over the last few years who "cashed out" in California and pretty much paid cash for a nice home here. I do suppose though that I have reached a point in my career where I have finally gotten to the very top of the market here so my perspective may be quite skewed as to what is "average". Guess 15 years of hangin in there and doing your best can pay off. I am willing to bet one thing though. If the economy does go south, us frivolous artists are some of the first ones to be kicked out on the streets.
As for suburban blight... that seems to be the natural progression most cities take as they evolve anyway. Inner city booms and grows, then spreads out and the core dies, then keeps spreading and then the core comes back while the suburbs become blighted. Lots of poor people with no easy access to jobs because everything is so spread out and most of the jobs are in the core, poor schools etc. and the core becomes more and more desirable and expensive and grows outward again. You end up with a donut effect. Good core, suburban blight, good far suburbs.
TheArtist wrote:
In my business I have been constantly amazed at how many people can afford nice homes. I was kind of shocked when the national news was reporting 400,000 home loans as being something special. That would seem mid range for most of the homes I work in. A good portion of the homes I work in are generally 750,000 on up to 10 million or more. And yes I have had quite a few customers over the last few years who "cashed out" in California and pretty much paid cash for a nice home here....
__________________________________
Is there still a huge influx of folks from California coming here and purchasing homes? I have been wondering about this since a lot of the high-paying jobs have left Tulsa. It doesn't seem like there's much of a draw, other than the relatively inexpensive real estate.
Hmmm.... BOK Financial to lay off 200
By Staff reports
8/28/2007 3:48 PM
Tulsa-based BOK Financial Corp. plans to reduce its work force by approximately 200 jobs, or 5 percent, throughout its eight-state region, according to a filing the company made Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The reduction will involve both management and staff-level jobs throughout all of BOK's operations, a spokesman said in an interview.
About 98 jobs in Tulsa will be affected.
BOK Financial is the holding company for Tulsa-based Bank of Oklahoma, along with other banks.
The layoffs are expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter, the financial services firm stated in its filing. After the layoffs, BOK Financial will employ about 4,300 people systemwide.
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Danger
Is there still a huge influx of folks from California coming here and purchasing homes? I have been wondering about this since a lot of the high-paying jobs have left Tulsa. It doesn't seem like there's much of a draw, other than the relatively inexpensive real estate.
Haven't met anybody from California lately, but we are pretty much out of the 2004 downturn. Thread:Job Data (//%22http://www.tulsanow.org/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=7389%22)
The jobs are pretty good, too...not just call centers, but trades and industry. I keep hearing that there is strong demand for petroleum or aerospace engineers.
Things are looking pretty bright these days; I just wanted to figure out if this mortgage lender implosion (nice find, thanks) was going to derail our choo-choo. Maybe not. Maybe even the opposite. It's encouraging.
CNN (//%22http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/PressCoverage.aspx?template=nonmemb_cm%22) had Tulsa in at 55th in the nation for foreclosures. No idea if that is up or down from the past.
I think the blight will be caused by increased rentals and absentee landlords.
I hope this is not taken as an attempt to divert this thread to another topic....!
Tulsa has always seemed, IMHO, to have more apartments and rentals than they have tenants.
More strip malls and storefronts than they have business people in the market for them.
Say...... six months ago I noticed a trend... Storefronts that lay vacant and other rentals being picked up and made use of by the Hispanic community...
Abandoned grocery stores being re-opened and shopped at by... the Hispanic community...
Portions of Tulsa that had been virtual wasteland becoming more dense and vibrant...
i.e. Kendall Whittier, East Tulsa, etc.
I feel we are facing our greatest threat of urban blight and national disdain as a result of the current "red neck" bullsh$t.......
The housing market will go through a correction and then it will move forward...
I see no such correction or moving forward for Oklahoma...
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Danger
TheArtist wrote:
In my business I have been constantly amazed at how many people can afford nice homes. I was kind of shocked when the national news was reporting 400,000 home loans as being something special. That would seem mid range for most of the homes I work in. A good portion of the homes I work in are generally 750,000 on up to 10 million or more. And yes I have had quite a few customers over the last few years who "cashed out" in California and pretty much paid cash for a nice home here....
__________________________________
Is there still a huge influx of folks from California coming here and purchasing homes? I have been wondering about this since a lot of the high-paying jobs have left Tulsa. It doesn't seem like there's much of a draw, other than the relatively inexpensive real estate.
I have often wondered myself who is buying all those expensive new houses they have built in Tulsa over the past several years, especially since our job market has changed so much. I think people cashing out in more expensive locales and relocating here is a part of it. I think another part may be that people like myself (50-something baby boomers) are now losing their parents to old age and perhaps inheriting wealth from them. They suddenly find themselves with lots of cash. I would bet at least half of the new luxury homes in Tulsa($350,000 and up) are being purchased with cash, no mortgage involved.
quote:
I feel we are facing our greatest threat of urban blight and national disdain as a result of the current "red neck" bullsh$t.......
(http://smileys.on-my-web.com/repository/Confused/stupid.gif)
quote:
Originally posted by Steve
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Danger
TheArtist wrote:
In my business I have been constantly amazed at how many people can afford nice homes. I was kind of shocked when the national news was reporting 400,000 home loans as being something special. That would seem mid range for most of the homes I work in. A good portion of the homes I work in are generally 750,000 on up to 10 million or more. And yes I have had quite a few customers over the last few years who "cashed out" in California and pretty much paid cash for a nice home here....
__________________________________
Is there still a huge influx of folks from California coming here and purchasing homes? I have been wondering about this since a lot of the high-paying jobs have left Tulsa. It doesn't seem like there's much of a draw, other than the relatively inexpensive real estate.
I have often wondered myself who is buying all those expensive new houses they have built in Tulsa over the past several years, especially since our job market has changed so much. I think people cashing out in more expensive locales and relocating here is a part of it. I think another part may be that people like myself (50-something baby boomers) are now losing their parents to old age and perhaps inheriting wealth from them. They suddenly find themselves with lots of cash. I would bet at least half of the new luxury homes in Tulsa($350,000 and up) are being purchased with cash, no mortgage involved.
I'm not so sure...My work involves many homes in the $600,000 and up range. We stay away from the cookie cutter $250-500,000 stuff because it's not rewarding work for us...But I think even most of the houses we work with have mortgages...granted, they might have enough cash to put 50% down, but almost ALL of them have mortgages of some sort. When we get to the $1,000,000 and up range, then we start to ditch the mortgages, although I've had clients finance $1,000,000 on a $2,000,000 house. We definitely have clients who could afford to pay cash outright, but choose not to for whatever reason. I can't say that I've ever seen a client who appeared overextended with debt, either. Most own their own businesses. And most write $5,000 checks like they're post-it notes. Must be an interesting way to live.
quote:
Originally posted by tulsa1603
quote:
Originally posted by Steve
I have often wondered myself who is buying all those expensive new houses they have built in Tulsa over the past several years, especially since our job market has changed so much. I think people cashing out in more expensive locales and relocating here is a part of it. I think another part may be that people like myself (50-something baby boomers) are now losing their parents to old age and perhaps inheriting wealth from them. They suddenly find themselves with lots of cash. I would bet at least half of the new luxury homes in Tulsa($350,000 and up) are being purchased with cash, no mortgage involved.
I'm not so sure...My work involves many homes in the $600,000 and up range. We stay away from the cookie cutter $250-500,000 stuff because it's not rewarding work for us...But I think even most of the houses we work with have mortgages...granted, they might have enough cash to put 50% down, but almost ALL of them have mortgages of some sort. When we get to the $1,000,000 and up range, then we start to ditch the mortgages, although I've had clients finance $1,000,000 on a $2,000,000 house. We definitely have clients who could afford to pay cash outright, but choose not to for whatever reason. I can't say that I've ever seen a client who appeared overextended with debt, either. Most own their own businesses. And most write $5,000 checks like they're post-it notes. Must be an interesting way to live.
That was just pure speculation on my part. If you are "in the business" then you sure know more about residential real estate than I do. I do know that my parent's generation (children of the Great Depression and WWII Veterans) are dying off, and baby boomers like myself are inheriting their assets, so I am sure that has added fuel to the luxury and higher-end home markets.