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Not At My Table - Political Discussions => National & International Politics => Topic started by: RecycleMichael on October 22, 2014, 06:53:24 PM

Title: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: RecycleMichael on October 22, 2014, 06:53:24 PM
My guess...

49 democrats 50 republicans and one independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont who caucuses with the Democrats.

Democrats have Joe Biden to resolve ties and retain control of the Senate.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on October 22, 2014, 09:55:22 PM
I am so tired of the election cycle. Just make it end. That said, under your scenario, look for Manchin to flip.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 03, 2014, 12:11:08 PM
Ahem...

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/bill-clinton-plugs-kay-hagan-in-nc-112395.html
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 03, 2014, 01:51:30 PM
Quote from: guido911 on November 03, 2014, 12:11:08 PM
Ahem...

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/bill-clinton-plugs-kay-hagan-in-nc-112395.html


So,... you seem to be saying Oklahoma IS for sale to the Koch brothers....


Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: sauerkraut on November 03, 2014, 02:01:03 PM
I think it'll be a GOP landslide in the senate. I also believe Mary Fallin will win big over Dorman. After the election is when Obama is supposed to grant 34 Million illegal aliens amnesty. That will be a nation-changing event for sure. Let's hope a Republican Congress can do something about stopping that.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 03, 2014, 04:13:32 PM
Quote from: sauerkraut on November 03, 2014, 02:01:03 PM
I think it'll be a GOP landslide in the senate. I also believe Mary Fallin will win big over Dorman. After the election is when Obama is supposed to grant 34 Million illegal aliens amnesty. That will be a nation-changing event for sure. Let's hope a Republican Congress can do something about stopping that.


If you had been awake anytime in the last 35 years, you would have known that the last two mass amnesties were by bills passed by Congress, and signed by the Presidents - both Republicans.

Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 03, 2014, 11:38:25 PM
I cannot wait until this election is over. Sick of hearing about it.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Red Arrow on November 04, 2014, 07:26:59 AM
Quote from: guido911 on November 03, 2014, 11:38:25 PM
I cannot wait until this election is over. Sick of hearing about it.

Can't wait to start getting serious about the 2016 election?

;D
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2014, 08:31:11 AM
Quote from: guido911 on November 03, 2014, 11:38:25 PM
I cannot wait until this election is over. Sick of hearing about it.


Sometime late Thursday maybe.... ISIS and Ebola are both still out there to "entertain" us.....

Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 04, 2014, 09:35:49 AM
Quote from: Red Arrow on November 04, 2014, 07:26:59 AM
Can't wait to start getting serious about the 2016 election?

;D


I can't wait!!!
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: RecycleMichael on November 04, 2014, 09:44:02 AM
There is an election today?
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2014, 09:50:40 AM
Quote from: RecycleMichael on November 04, 2014, 09:44:02 AM
There is an election today?

For most of us....for guido and Red, it's tomorrow....
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Conan71 on November 04, 2014, 10:04:00 AM
#55 at 7:50 am at my precinct.  Seemed like a pretty good turn-out so far in my neck of the woods.  I'm going to try and hit seven more by the end of the day.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: rebound on November 04, 2014, 10:29:59 AM
Quote from: guido911 on November 04, 2014, 09:35:49 AM
I can't wait!!!

Honestly,  assuming Hillary runs, the only intellectually interesting piece of 2016 is going to be the GOP primaries.  How does the GOP counter her?  Go hard-right?  Lots of issues there.  Go Moderate?  Would anybody really believe it?

Clinton herself is such a known quantity that the traditional attacks probably won't work very well except to play to the already-converted hard-right.  Her major weakness is her interpersonal style and campaign ability, not specific issues.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Hoss on November 04, 2014, 10:39:53 AM
Quote from: rebound on November 04, 2014, 10:29:59 AM
Honestly,  assuming Hillary runs, the only intellectually interesting piece of 2016 is going to be the GOP primaries.  How does the GOP counter her?  Go hard-right?  Lots of issues there.  Go Moderate?  Would anybody really believe it?

Clinton herself is such a known quantity that the traditional attacks probably won't work very well except to play to the already-converted hard-right.  Her major weakness is her interpersonal style and campaign ability, not specific issues.

But now that Monica is back in the limelight, I would look for the GOP to roll that out.  They've already started to a little.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2014, 11:12:39 AM
Quote from: Hoss on November 04, 2014, 10:39:53 AM
But now that Monica is back in the limelight, I would look for the GOP to roll that out.  They've already started to a little.


She had 14 minutes, 30 seconds of fame many years ago.  She has about 30 seconds of fame left...
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Red Arrow on November 04, 2014, 11:45:17 AM
Quote from: Conan71 on November 04, 2014, 10:04:00 AM
#55 at 7:50 am at my precinct.  Seemed like a pretty good turn-out so far in my neck of the woods.  I'm going to try and hit seven more by the end of the day.

Slacker!

;D
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Townsend on November 04, 2014, 12:10:14 PM
Quote from: rebound on November 04, 2014, 10:29:59 AM
Honestly,  assuming Hillary runs, the only intellectually interesting piece of 2016 is going to be the GOP primaries.  How does the GOP counter her? 

Her age and affiliation with the current administration.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: rebound on November 04, 2014, 01:21:51 PM
Quote from: Townsend on November 04, 2014, 12:10:14 PM
Her age and affiliation with the current administration.

Age is legitimate.  I had the same concerns about McCain.  (But I would probably have voted for McCain, except for his  forced choice of VP...)

No doubt the GOP will try to use the current administration against her, but I think just about everyone knows how much the Clinton and Obama camps don't like each other.  Watch for Hillary to grow increasingly strident in her criticism of Obama as the race goes on.  Having no real challenger in the primaries works to her advantage on this, as she doesn't have to go heavy-negative on Obama until late in the stretch run.

But again,  I can see multiple topics that will be tried against her, but they've all been beaten to death by now.  Bengahzi is about the only new-ish issue, and even that has been pummeled so hard that I can't see that doing anything besides playing to the GOP base, which wasn't going to vote for here anyway.

I'm not saying she will win, as it's a long way off.  Just that I don't think it is going to be a particularly fun or interesting race.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: sauerkraut on November 04, 2014, 01:47:34 PM
I'm also hoping that Joy will win over Cox, I understand it's a tight race, Joy is just a few points ahead. This election should really be a GOP landslide nation wide, we all have seen and lived thru  what 6 years of Obama did to our country. Let's hope we can get the Keystone Pipeline going with a republican congress and stop Obama's amnesty plan cold. :)
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Hoss on November 04, 2014, 02:07:05 PM
This might be the funniest photobomb you'll see all day.

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/p235x350/1471261_789057714467051_2385367896829867636_n.jpg?oh=e83d56736c3c8d5bc91a2a6713a13c97&oe=54F82899&__gda__=1423350046_e8f1c523d64f6f3d51ff30eb65cd56fd)
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 04, 2014, 04:56:45 PM
Quote from: Hoss on November 04, 2014, 02:07:05 PM
This might be the funniest photobomb you'll see all day.

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/p235x350/1471261_789057714467051_2385367896829867636_n.jpg?oh=e83d56736c3c8d5bc91a2a6713a13c97&oe=54F82899&__gda__=1423350046_e8f1c523d64f6f3d51ff30eb65cd56fd)

Is this one legit?

Mo. Gov. Jay Nixon.

(http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/assets_c/2014/11/nixonbuttcrack-thumb-560x372.jpg)
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Red Arrow on November 04, 2014, 05:35:13 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on November 04, 2014, 10:04:00 AM
#55 at 7:50 am at my precinct.  Seemed like a pretty good turn-out so far in my neck of the woods. 


#617 at about 5PM.  The workers said it had been fairly busy even in the AM.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 05, 2014, 12:57:37 AM
It's over. Time to move on. But, there is this:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1p8PiACQAARpC0.jpg)
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Gaspar on November 05, 2014, 08:23:56 AM
The president can now return to the links.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: Conan71 on November 05, 2014, 09:43:50 AM
Nate Silver had an interesting article this morning showing in spite of the outcome, the polls had a Democrat bias:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

(https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/silver-feature-pollbias-1.png?w=305&h=561)

(https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/silver-feature-pollbias-table-11.png?w=1024)

(https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/silver-feature-pollbias-table-22.png?w=1024)
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: YoungTulsan on November 05, 2014, 04:33:12 PM
So, having the historical numbers from the last 25 years kind of answers the question of whether or not the polls are "biased" as in intentionally rigged.
I'd say the historical data leads to No, they arent.

What it shows is how much voter's enthusiasm on voting day affects turnout.  The "bias" comes from the voter apathy on the side that believes it is going to be defeated.   You had stories coming out the day before the election saying "Republicans have 95% odds of taking the Senate", and even Nate Silver had it at 3 out of 4 yesterday morning.

Projected apathy is probably something the pollsters need to add to their algorithm to get a more accurate prediction of the results, if accuracy is their goal.  But that is probably a very volatile element, which can gain momentum quickly, hence it leave polls looking like they were extremely biased.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 05, 2014, 05:05:53 PM
Prof. Sabato making the way overdue demand.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2014/11/05/Sabato-I-Want-an-Investigation-of-the-Polls
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: sauerkraut on November 06, 2014, 01:22:52 PM
The voters do NOT want compromise with Obama, they want Obama and his policies stopped. if the voters wanted compromise and more of this Obama stuff they would of voted in all democrats. This sends a clear message to Washington.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 06, 2014, 01:42:26 PM
Quote from: sauerkraut on November 06, 2014, 01:22:52 PM
The voters do NOT want compromise with Obama, they want Obama and his policies stopped. if the voters wanted compromise and more of this Obama stuff they would of voted in all democrats. This sends a clear message to Washington.

Wow. Straight mainlining Rush now?
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on November 06, 2014, 01:43:14 PM
Quote from: Gaspar on November 05, 2014, 08:23:56 AM
The president can now return to the links.

Elections have consequences. Oh wait. No they don't.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: guido911 on December 06, 2014, 11:12:24 PM
Quote from: RecycleMichael on October 22, 2014, 06:53:24 PM
My guess...

49 democrats 50 republicans and one independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont who caucuses with the Democrats.

Democrats have Joe Biden to resolve ties and retain control of the Senate.


Off by 4...Landrieu out.
Title: Re: Let us predict the U.S. Senate
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on December 07, 2014, 08:09:42 PM
Quote from: guido911 on December 06, 2014, 11:12:24 PM
Off by 4...Landrieu out.


Louisiana is just like Oklahoma...they can't catch a break!  Welcome, LA, to our low standing in so many areas....



They had a serious Catch 22 going on....both choices were horrendous.  Either one will continue the bringing of bad things to that state!