(http://www.trbimg.com/img-5040215a/turbine/la-pn-paul-ryan-joe-biden-debate-20120830-001/600)
Prep begins:
Biden begins debate prep with Van HollenQuoteThe vice presidential debate is a little over two weeks away on Oct. 11, and Joe Biden is getting ready.
His first mock debate with Paul Ryan stand in Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) was held last week, an Obama campaign official tells POLITICO.
"The Vice President has been preparing for his debate with Congressman Ryan – a candidate who has an exceptional grasp of policy details and a mastery of budgetary matters," the official said.
I've heard Biden is wanting to dress as Aaron Burr. Not sure what he's got planned. (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Hamilton-burr-duel.jpg/320px-Hamilton-burr-duel.jpg)
I hear Ryan will show up as Atlas...
No hope.
Landslide in 42 days!
Quote from: Teatownclown on September 25, 2012, 12:21:34 PM
I hear Ryan will show up as Atlas...
No hope.
Landslide in 42 days!
Landslide indeed!
What will you do when Obama gets his donkey handed to him?
The debates are going to be very important in this election. I think Romney and President Obama are well matched and can hold their own against each other. That's going to be a snoozer.
I think Biden is so ridiculously outgunned by Ryan that it's simply going to be a one sided debate. Biden's only real hope is to make Ryan look like he's just being mean. Being a Democrat, Biden will have the pitty-party vote on his side, so if he can make it look like he's being picked on, he can position Ryan as ruthless and cruel, and that works well with independents.
The only audience this will have are already decided voters and news networks looking for spin to sell commercial time.
"He said that?" (out of context)
Quote from: Gaspar on September 25, 2012, 01:17:22 PM
The debates are going to be very important in this election.
Why would the debates this year be any more important than in other presidential elections? I think you are just wishing for them to matter. Your guy is hopelessly behind and only has a couple of chances left.
If they had replacement referees deciding this, Romney would have a chance.
Quote from: Gaspar on September 25, 2012, 01:17:22 PM
I think Biden is so ridiculously outgunned by Ryan that it's simply going to be a one sided debate.
Only if a debate can be won with platitudes and glittering generalities. If that is the case, then Ryan will indeed do well.
Quote from: Townsend on September 25, 2012, 01:21:30 PM
The only audience this will have are already decided voters and news networks looking for spin to sell commercial time.
"He said that?" (out of context)
You are probably correct, and that is sad.
Quote from RM
QuoteWhy would the debates this year be any more important than in other presidential elections? I think you are just wishing for them to matter. Your guy is hopelessly behind and only has a couple of chances left.
If they had replacement referees deciding this, Romney would have a chance.
I think Romney and Ryan have done a poor job in establishing their platform with the independent voters. The media has downplayed the important differences, and the debates are really one of the only venues for them to make their case directly against President Obama and his special little guy.
Quote from: Gaspar on September 25, 2012, 01:39:57 PM
I think Romney and Ryan have done a poor job in establishing their platform with the independent voters. The media has downplayed the important differences
Yes, they have done a very poor job, but that's because they know that their platform is not what most of the country wants to see. The only way they can win is to keep people from noticing what exactly it is they are proposing. Even with that refusal to get specific, they're still losing badly. They may still win on the anti-Obama vote, but the polling is quite clear that people don't support the platform.
Ryan supports unions! At least he supports the NFL official's union.
Quote from: Conan71 on September 25, 2012, 12:32:35 PM
Landslide indeed!
What will you do when Obama gets his donkey handed to him?
Among born-again Christians, Romney leads Obama 48 to 40 percent. The former Massachusetts governor held the same lead among rural voters. Among voters who shop at Wal-Mart weekly, Romney is ahead of Obama 46 to 42 percent. And among those sympathetic to the tea party, Romney holds a 75 to 17 percent edge
Quote from: carltonplace on September 25, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Among born-again Christians, Romney leads Obama 48 to 40 percent. The former Massachusetts governor held the same lead among rural voters. Among voters who shop at Wal-Mart weekly, Romney is ahead of Obama 46 to 42 percent. And among those sympathetic to the tea party, Romney holds a 75 to 17 percent edge
How about Denny's?
Quote from: carltonplace on September 25, 2012, 03:35:17 PM
Among born-again Christians, Romney leads Obama 48 to 40 percent. The former Massachusetts governor held the same lead among rural voters. Among voters who shop at Wal-Mart weekly, Romney is ahead of Obama 46 to 42 percent. And among those sympathetic to the tea party, Romney holds a 75 to 17 percent edge
Ah, American intolerants.
Taking bets.
Does anyone pay attention to poll aggregators and electoral vote predictions? Nate Silver is presently showing a 312/225 split in favor of the president. I know some of you will disregard this since the 538 blog is part of the evil New York Times, but it's a valid approach to crunching the numbers absent any spin.
ElectoralVote.com is showing a 328/206 split.
Karl Rove is predicting 196 'safe' electoral votes for the president, with another 54 leaning his way, while Gov. Romney has 159 solid votes with another 32 leaning his way. Note that the polling data is as much as 30 days old per his own methodology. Rove says that some swing states are still too close to call, yet current polling data shows a widening gap between the candidates.
Are you advocating "Arithmetic"?
Quote from: Ed W on September 25, 2012, 09:56:50 PM
Note that the polling data is as much as 30 days old per his own methodology.
Hah, the pre-convention polls were so much different than anything that's come out in the last couple of weeks that it's almost funny Rove would base his predictions on old data. Romney is polling very, very poorly in state polls, although he was doing exceptionally well in the Gallup tracking poll for a few days. That seems to have also begun to shift. It's by no means in the bag for Obama, but Romney is going to have to do something rather soon, and I don't think a middling debate performance will cut it. He's going to have to absolutely eviscerate Obama in a way that doesn't pile on to the Romney-as-liar meme. (Funny and a little sad that the Obama team is taking a page from Rove's 2000 playbook)
Wait for the debates before putting too much stock in the polls, though the swing state numbers just released have got to be troubling to the Romney camp.
Quote from: Conan71 on September 26, 2012, 12:11:19 PM
Wait for the debates before putting too much stock in the polls, though the swing state numbers just released have got to be troubling to the Romney camp.
With so few undecideds he's going to have to actively change people's minds, which is going to require a much stronger showing in the debates than anyone expects. I think he'll do reasonably well if he stays on message, but it's the off message ad libbing that gets people excited, so I don't see a great chance of him doing better than a tie.
I listened to Rush Limbaugh this morning say that "the polls are nothing more than main stream media lies meant to depress republicans so they won't vote."
Yeah, that's it.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 26, 2012, 12:52:36 PM
I listened to Rush Limbaugh this morning say that "the polls are nothing more than main stream media lies meant to depress republicans so they won't vote."
What else can he say when even reliably Republican leaning polling outfits like Rasmussen show Obama ahead?
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 26, 2012, 12:52:36 PM
I listened to Rush Limbaugh this morning say that "the polls are nothing more than main stream media lies meant to depress republicans so they won't vote."
Yeah, that's it.
But I don't get that. If the polls keep saying my candidate is behind, that makes me even more motivated to vote. Perhaps it's reverse psychology. . .or reverse-reverse psychology. . .or reverse-reverse-reverse psychology?
I'm so confused, I'm going to vote for Obama!
Quote from: Gaspar on September 26, 2012, 01:14:24 PM
If the polls keep saying my candidate is behind, that makes me even more motivated to vote.
Most people, not being engaged partisans, don't bother with lost causes.
Quote from: nathanm on September 26, 2012, 01:15:52 PM
Most people, not being engaged partisans, don't bother with lost causes.
I would think even more people would just want to be associated with a winner.
Quote from: erfalf on September 26, 2012, 01:28:19 PM
I would think even more people would just want to be associated with a winner.
Tough to do when you live in Oklahoma.
Quote from: Townsend on September 26, 2012, 01:44:43 PM
Tough to do when you live in Oklahoma.
Some say...
Game ain't over yet, you know. ;)
Quote from: erfalf on September 26, 2012, 01:50:41 PM
Some say...
Game ain't over yet, you know. ;)
I say.
Name a person you think, as an Oklahoman, you can associate with and is a winner.
Quote from: erfalf on September 26, 2012, 01:28:19 PM
I would think even more people would just want to be associated with a winner.
Didn't seem to hold true in 2008. ;)
Quote from: Gaspar on September 26, 2012, 01:14:24 PM
I'm so confused, I'm going to vote for Obama!
My work here is done.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 26, 2012, 12:52:36 PM
I listened to Rush Limbaugh this morning say that "the polls are nothing more than main stream media lies meant to depress republicans so they won't vote."
Yeah, that's it.
The right suppresses votes by requiring identification. The left does it with polls. ::)
Quote from: Conan71 on September 26, 2012, 02:14:56 PM
The right suppresses votes by requiring identification. The left does it with polls. ::)
Thread winner. But the Stern you tube clip sure was a close second. :P Sorry if I took over forum policing.
Quote from: Conan71 on September 26, 2012, 02:14:56 PM
The right suppresses votes by requiring identification. The left does it with polls. ::)
Not necessarily true, Conan, because the leading candidate's supporters might become complacent, thinking that their guy has is sewn up, and therefore they don't really need to show up at the polls.
One other thing - I heard today that the RNC or the Romney campaign latched onto the polls-have-a-liberal-slant meme that Rush and others have promoted. Further, the campaign came out with its own figures showing that Romney is ahead nationwide. If so, the party is becoming divorced from reality, or so it would appear. After the election, do you think there will be any accountability for such self-delusion? That's assuming that the president wins, of course. Right now, the odds are 3:1 in his favor.
Quote from: Ed W on September 26, 2012, 04:26:23 PM
If so, the party is becoming divorced from reality, or so it would appear.
BECOMING divorced from reality? The Republican party has been running a death race to distance themselves from reality ever since Obama won in '08.
Quote from: swake on September 26, 2012, 05:56:25 PM
BECOMING divorced from reality? The Republican party has been running a death race to distance themselves from reality ever since Obama won in '08.
Someone forgot 2010....Here, let me help you.
Now, who is divorced from reality? Somehow I think this is a pic of ol' swake.
(http://funny-pictures.funmunch.com/pictures/Epic%20Fail%20Guy.jpg)
Quote from: guido911 on September 26, 2012, 07:32:42 PM
Someone forgot 2010....Here, let me help you.
You're a hoot. Let me help with that:
(http://www.rainbowresource.com/products/048706.jpg)
Quote from: Townsend on September 26, 2012, 01:44:43 PM
Tough to do when you live in Oklahoma.
Especially if you lean left of center.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 26, 2012, 02:14:24 PM
My work here is done.
He may be confused but I think he is kidding about voting for Obama. Get back to work.
Quote from: Ed W on September 26, 2012, 04:26:23 PM
That's assuming that the president wins, of course. Right now, the odds are 3:1 in his favor.
3:1? I'll believe a lead for Obama but not 3:1, even nationwide. Maybe in a state as blue as Oklahoma is red but that's about all.
Quote from: Red Arrow on September 26, 2012, 08:38:47 PM
3:1? I'll believe a lead for Obama but not 3:1, even nationwide. Maybe in a state as blue as Oklahoma is red but that's about all.
Odds, not percentage. Interestingly, multiple polls are showing that somewhere around 55-60% of people think Obama will win while only 30-40% think Romney will win. Only around 50% planning to vote for Obama and around 45% plan to vote for Romney. Apparently quite a few Romney supporters think Obama will be reelected, or at least they're telling pollsters that.
Quote from: nathanm on September 26, 2012, 07:41:15 PM
You're a hoot. Let me help with that:
(http://www.rainbowresource.com/products/048706.jpg)
I thought I asked before. Tell us again about your post high school education creds?
Quote from: nathanm on September 26, 2012, 08:51:28 PM
Odds, not percentage.
I understand the difference. I still find 3:1 a bit difficult to believe.
Quote from: Red Arrow on September 26, 2012, 09:26:57 PM
I understand the difference. I still find 3:1 a bit difficult to believe.
Take it up with the folks at intrade.
Quote from: nathanm on September 26, 2012, 09:32:04 PM
Take it up with the folks at intrade.
I wonder what percentage of regular folk voters even know about that place. Looks like a fancy bookie place to me.
Quote from: Red Arrow on September 26, 2012, 10:01:31 PM
I wonder what percentage of regular folk voters even know about that place. Looks like a fancy bookie place to me.
Probably somewhere between zero and one percent, but nobody said it was an opinion poll. It's a market (or a bookmaking operation, if you prefer)
Quote from: nathanm on September 26, 2012, 10:07:46 PM
Probably somewhere between zero and one percent, but nobody said it was an opinion poll.
Ed W didn't exactly say it was the result of an opinion poll but he certainly left me with that impression.
QuoteIt's a market (or a bookmaking operation, if you prefer)
It's not worth my time to investigate their claims of accuracy. The simple yes or no option may skew some results. Maybe not if the sample size is big enough. If Intrade were to ask if people thought they would be killed in a car accident in the next week, would the betting come close to actual statistics?
Quote from: Red Arrow on September 26, 2012, 10:46:43 PM
would the betting come close to actual statistics?
Actual statistics tell much the same story. There are a lot of folks doing it and they all come up good for Obama right now since the polls have been pretty good to him lately.
Quote from: Red Arrow on September 26, 2012, 10:46:43 PM
Ed W didn't exactly say it was the result of an opinion poll but he certainly left me with that impression.
It's not worth my time to investigate their claims of accuracy. The simple yes or no option may skew some results. Maybe not if the sample size is big enough. If Intrade were to ask if people thought they would be killed in a car accident in the next week, would the betting come close to actual statistics?
Red, I have to make this short and leave for work. Take a look at Nate Silver's 538 blog for his stats and methodology. He seems to be rigorous and without bias, and if I remember right, he was largely correct in the last national elections down to the state level, and that included the House and Senate races.
Gotta go...have a fun day!