Romney is leading now in Ohio.
QuoteMitt Romney has inched ahead of President Barack Obama in the key battleground state of Ohio, after the president has led there for several months, a new Rasmussen Poll shows.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 46 percent support to Obama's 44 percent. Six percent like some other candidate and 5 percent remain undecided.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/rasmussen-romney-ohio-poll/2012/05/31/id/440771
Romney has 6 point lead in Florida (although the "experts" take issue):
QuoteMitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by six percentage points in Florida, according to a poll released last week. The Quinnipiac University poll shows Mr. Romney leading the President 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters. In early May, the Quinnipiac University poll showed the President and Romney virtually tied, and now Romney is ahead.
http://www.thewestsidegazette.com/News/Article/Article.asp?NewsID=113857&sID=4&ItemSource=L
Republicans are trusted more than democrats on the economy:
QuoteFor the first time in five-and-a-half years of regular tracking, half of voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to the economy, the issue they rate by far as most important to how they will vote. Voters now trust Republicans more on five of the 10 major issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports, Democrats more on two, and they're tied on three.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues
Romney is "neck and neck" with Obama in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/obama-romney-neck-and-neck-in-swing-state-polls-20120531
I hate polls. Just wanted to know if I could hear the collective sphincter puckering from a few in here. :P
We all thought Romney was giving in.
Trump's going to wreck it as VP.
If it were someone other than Rasmussen, I might care. They have historically been (by far) the worst of all the national polling orgs, yet news outlets still bother to report their numbers as if they were part of the more accurate group. It's pretty bad when even Zogby has more predictive value than your poll. ;)
Polls are nothing more than a propaganda tool. They do nothing in reality.
Quote from: nathanm on May 31, 2012, 04:41:14 PM
If it were someone other than Rasmussen, I might care. They have historically been (by far) the worst of all the national polling orgs...
Here is a study that compares Rasmussen results with actual results.
http://www.thepresidentialcandidates.us/rasmussen-reports-republican-bias/1297/
These guys suck as pollsters and they are a shill for the GOP.
Quote from: erfalf on May 31, 2012, 04:43:50 PM
Polls are nothing more than a propaganda tool. They do nothing in reality.
I love it when you dismiss entire fields of study like that. I guess you don't believe in statistics?
Quote from: nathanm on May 31, 2012, 04:51:23 PM
I love it when you dismiss entire fields of study like that. I guess you don't believe in statistics?
Let me clarify: Opinion polls are nothing but a propaganda tool.
Opinion polls and statistics are two totally different things. Statistics is a viable field because non-opinion related things can be measured all the time, and they do all the time. They can be useful in policy, however it seems they are generally so far skewed from reality once a politician commissions it that it is better just to ignore it entirely.
Better? Disagree?
Edit: On dismissing stuff. It's kind of like TTC condemning all religion for a few bad apples, or several hundred other things like that that everyone is just as guilty of.
Sheesh guys, that puckering sound was way louder than I thought. Full on "shoot the messenger" attack on Rasmussen even though he only had two of the four polls I linked to. As for whether Rasmussen is "accurate" or not depends on who you ask. Check wiki if you want to see.
Quote from: erfalf on May 31, 2012, 05:02:43 PM
Let me clarify: Opinion polls are nothing but a propaganda tool.
Some opinion polls are indeed used as propaganda tools. However, with careful sample control, it's perfectly possible to conduct a statistically defensible opinion poll. Sometimes, even those get used as propaganda.
Guido, I don't have to ask anybody. I can look at Rasmussen's numbers and compare them to election results. ;)
Quote from: guido911 on May 31, 2012, 05:18:35 PM
Sheesh guys, that puckering sound was way louder than I thought.
Because of VP Trump? I can only imagine.
Quote from: nathanm on May 31, 2012, 05:20:13 PM
Guido, I don't have to ask anybody. I can look at Rasmussen's numbers and compare them to election results. ;)
Well you'd better go to wiki then because his polls are not as inaccurate as your comparisons. And polls still suck...
Here's a link:
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
Only poll that matters is the final one.
Quote from: Conan71 on May 31, 2012, 07:58:53 PM
Only poll that matters is the final one.
Exactly, which is why I believe that all these opinion polls are propaganda. Would a candidates polling really change a voters mind?
Polling is very important for fundraising. Everybody wants to give to a candidate who is going to be winning.
It is like betting on horses. There ain't no gain in picking losers.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on May 31, 2012, 08:57:55 PM
Polling is very important for fundraising. Everybody wants to give to a candidate who is going to be winning.
It is like betting on horses. There ain't no gain in picking losers.
If your candidate is going to win, s/he probably doesn't need your money. If your candidate has a rough road ahead, s/he probably needs your financial support. It's not much like betting on horses except in the case of patronage jobs.
Quote from: Red Arrow on May 31, 2012, 09:09:17 PM
It's not much like betting on horses except in the case of patronage jobs.
These days it's more likely to be a pet subsidy, relaxed regulation, or what have you. If you manage to land your nephew a $150,000 a year government job you're a lot worse off than getting some loophole written into the tax code that gets you $1,500,000 off your tax bill every year or some no-bid DOD contract.
Quote from: nathanm on May 31, 2012, 09:47:25 PM
These days it's more likely to be a pet subsidy, relaxed regulation, or what have you. If you manage to land your nephew a $150,000 a year government job you're a lot worse off than getting some loophole written into the tax code that gets you $1,500,000 off your tax bill every year or some no-bid DOD contract.
Same basic idea though, a specific benefit for "you", a friend, or relative personally for having contributed to a candidate. It's one of the less savory parts of politics in my opinion.
Quote from: Red Arrow on May 31, 2012, 09:52:13 PM
Same basic idea though, a specific benefit for "you", a friend, or relative personally for having contributed to a candidate. It's one of the less savory parts of politics in my opinion.
I agree, it's a difference of degree, not kind. It just amazes me that patronage jobs are such a low return way of getting government money compared to the modern alternatives.
No need to cancel the election just yet....A Federal Judge has done the right thing!
QuoteFederal Judge Blocks Florida Voter Suppression Law
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/05/31/493196/judge-blocks-florida-voter-law/?mobile=nc
A federal judge blocked much of Florida's year-old voter suppression law today as an unconstitutional infringement on speech and voting rights.
Gotta watch those neo-confederates closely. :o
Quote from: Conan71 on May 31, 2012, 07:58:53 PM
Only poll that matters is the final one.
I agree. But this one is a close second. Pucker Alert.
http://www.freep.com/article/20120607/NEWS06/120607030/Poll-Barack-Obama-dead-heat-Mitt-Romney-Michigan-popularity-slips