Mitt barely wins Iowa over Santorum with Ron Paul third and Newt Gingrich fourth. Huntsman got less than 1%. In New Hampshire, Romney wins with Paul second, Huntsman third and Newt and Santorum close for fourth and fifth.
Romney wins the first state with 25% and the second state with just under 40%.
What is the acceptable level of winning that the opponents will give up? If Romney wins South Carolina yet falls under 33%, does that mean he can't win a head to head race in the general?
My predictions for South Carolina...
Romney 33%
Gingrich 22%
Santorum 21%
Paul 14%
Huntsman 4%
Perry 4%
Lee Atwater 1%
Stephen Colbert 1%
After last night's debate, Romney is sinking fast. His answers on his taxes are killing him.
My new predictions.
Gingrich wins with 34%
Romney gets 30%
Ron Paul gets his usual 17%
Rick Santorum gets 15%
Stephen Colbert gets 2%
Gary Johnson 1%
Vanna White 1%
Answers? He has no answers.
Nothing wrong with being wealthy and running for office. They all are. He looks like he's embarrassed or hiding something though. Doesn't matter anyway. Its too late. Now its not just taxes, its offshore deposits, its his wavering views, its the stink of arrogant 1% upon him. I still think he'll get the nomination but Newt and Santorum have wounded him. Perhaps mortally.
Mitt 34%
Grich 32%
Rick 15%
Ron 14%
Colbear aka Cain 1%
all others (including lost, deceased or changed at later date)...4%
Quote from: AquaMan on January 20, 2012, 12:15:45 PM
I still think he'll get the nomination but Newt and Santorum have wounded him. Perhaps mortally.
He's a sea monster?
If he is then Grich is Cap'n Ahab.
Quote from: AquaMan on January 20, 2012, 12:15:45 PM
Answers? He has no answers.
He looks like he's embarrassed or hiding something though.
Sounds like candidate Obama and his secretive college transcripts.
Or his long-form birth certificate ;)
I watched the Betty White 90th birthday roast on NBC the other night and they had a taped segment from the president. He wise-cracked that we needed to see a copy of her long-form birth certificate. Good to see he's got a sense of humor about things like that.
Yeah, but Obama already likely has his nomination. ;)
I think Romney and Newt are going to be neck and neck.
Quote from: Gaspar on January 20, 2012, 01:07:35 PM
I think Romney and Newt are going to be neck and neck.
I think you're right. Romney's taking a dive, and Gingrich knows just how to motivate the folks down south. His answer about the "open marriage" thing last night was just perfect. He knew exactly how to turn that into an attack on the "liberal media" and that the audience would eat it up. Romney, for his part is just swimming around in goop of his own making. I really think if he rethought the defense of his money he could turn it into a positive -- at least enough to win the GOP nod. Whether it does him any good in the general is another story, but the tax thing is a liability that shouldn't be.
As little as I care for Newt, to his credit, he did have a lot to do with the budget surpluses during the Clinton era.
He's still an arrogant, petulant little child.
Quote from: we vs us on January 20, 2012, 01:19:22 PM
I think you're right. Romney's taking a dive, and Gingrich knows just how to motivate the folks down south. His answer about the "open marriage" thing last night was just perfect. He knew exactly how to turn that into an attack on the "liberal media" and that the audience would eat it up. Romney, for his part is just swimming around in goop of his own making. I really think if he rethought the defense of his money he could turn it into a positive -- at least enough to win the GOP nod. Whether it does him any good in the general is another story, but the tax thing is a liability that shouldn't be.
When Newt does that he causes the entire liberal-media-complex to reel in chaos. Today they are all attempting to justify Kings question and find another angle to attack. It's like throwing dynamite into a smoldering fire. Makes a hell of a noise, but it puts the fire out!
I think that's one of the reasons that people dream of seeing Newt debate President Obama. President Obama can spend an hour weaving thousands of beautiful words without delivering any substance. Newt can deliver a knock-out in one sentence. I just hope he and Romney can kiss and make up, because it looks like they may be working together for the next four to eight years.
This is a tough one. I think Mitt has an absolute ceiling of about 30-35% of Republicans that will support him. Just like Ron Paul has about 25%. I don't see their numbers changing much. Gingrich is where the support seemingly should go, but he's such a personal black hole with his second ex-wife blasting him this week who knows if people are going to vote for him or not. It's a tough call, if a voter isn't going to vote for the big business moderate in Mitt or the Libertarian in Paul who do they vote for? The empty suit or the jerk-off?
If the race stays split with Paul taking 20-25% or so, and Mitt getting his 30-35% and the last 40% being split between Santorum and Gingrich mostly evenly Mitt can't help but win. But if one of them were to drop out, I think the one left standing would easily beat Mitt. Who blinks first, and do they do it in time?
Quote from: Gaspar on January 20, 2012, 02:21:44 PM
When Newt does that he causes the entire liberal-media-complex to reel in chaos.
Yes, they are reeling. Unsure what to do next...
What are you watching?
Quote from: Townsend on January 20, 2012, 02:36:21 PM
Yes, they are reeling. Unsure what to do next...
What are you watching?
I think he gets a special remote...
Quote from: Hoss on January 20, 2012, 02:37:04 PM
I think he gets a special remote...
Jesus, it must release the meds...
Quote from: swake on January 20, 2012, 02:32:39 PM
This is a tough one. I think Mitt has an absolute ceiling of about 30-35% of Republicans that will support him. Just like Ron Paul has about 25%. I don't see their numbers changing much. Gingrich is where the support seemingly should go, but he's such a personal black hole with his second ex-wife blasting him this week who knows if people are going to vote for him or not. It's a tough call, if a voter isn't going to vote for the big business moderate in Mitt or the Libertarian in Paul who do they vote for? The empty suit or the jerk-off?
If the race stays split with Paul taking 20-25% or so, and Mitt getting his 30-35% and the last 40% being split between Santorum and Gingrich mostly evenly Mitt can't help but win. But if one of them were to drop out, I think the one left standing would easily beat Mitt. Who blinks first, and do they do it in time?
I don't think Gingrich will fare well outside the south and Romney will be the nominee. Only thing that could trip up Romney in the general is if Paul runs as an independent, then Obama will win handily.
Please make Newt the nominee.
His past marriages will make great attack ads by women's groups. His million dollar consulting fees to Fannie Mae will become the poster child of government misuse of funds. His partisanship will turn off independents and his past congressional sanction will be remembered (his own party voted against him on ethics charges).
Newt has more baggage than Kim Kardashian.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on January 20, 2012, 02:44:42 PM
Newt has more baggage than Kim Kardashian.
Same sized caboose too.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on January 20, 2012, 02:44:42 PM
Please make Newt the nominee.
His past marriages will make great attack ads by women's groups. His million dollar consulting fees to Fannie Mae will become the poster child of government misuse of funds. His partisanship will turn off independents and his past congressional sanction will be remembered (his own party voted against him on ethics charges).
Newt has more baggage than Kim Kardashian.
Boy, I agree with that, but I'd still like to see a debate. It would be magical. Like Mike Tyson fighting Andy Dick.
Quote from: Gaspar on January 20, 2012, 02:49:23 PM
Boy, I agree with that, but I'd still like to see a debate. It would be magical. Like Mike Tyson fighting Andy Dick.
Disagree. You're misremembering Obama big time. He's a smart guy, charming, telegenic, and a very good public speaker. Disagree if you will about his politics (and I KNOW you will) he's a very good campaigner and an excellent debater.
Gingrich will look like a pasty, bloated curmudgeon next to Big O. It'll be the Kennedy/Nixon debates all over again.
Quote from: we vs us on January 20, 2012, 04:08:48 PM
Gingrich will look like a pasty, bloated curmudgeon next to Big O. It'll be the Kennedy/Nixon debates all over again.
So the Newters will hope for a radio debate?
Quote from: we vs us on January 20, 2012, 04:08:48 PM
Disagree. You're misremembering Obama big time. He's a smart guy, charming, telegenic, and a very good public speaker. Disagree if you will about his politics (and I KNOW you will) he's a very good campaigner and an excellent debater.
Gingrich will look like a pasty, bloated curmudgeon next to Big O. It'll be the Kennedy/Nixon debates all over again.
No, you are mis-remembering. He's long on words and short on substance.
The outcome was pretty amazing! It's surprising that someone who was already booted out by his own party and had so many ethic's violations has now won the SC primary. They're more conservative then most and were shocked and disgusted at President Clinton's behavior. Newt was doing the exact same thing while he was trying to have Clinton impeached. For some reason, the voters seem to feel that God has forgiven Newt. Makes you wonder why they never felt that way about Clinton.
How did he gain the vote of the female conservatives? It sounds like Democrats are allowed to vote in the GOP primary in SC. Do you suppose they came out in droves and voted for Newt while they pictured a debate between him and Pres. Obama?
Quote from: Jammie on January 22, 2012, 07:24:24 AM
The outcome was pretty amazing! It's surprising that someone who was already booted out by his own party and had so many ethic's violations has now won the SC primary. They're more conservative then most and were shocked and disgusted at President Clinton's behavior. Newt was doing the exact same thing while he was trying to have Clinton impeached. For some reason, the voters seem to feel that God has forgiven Newt. Makes you wonder why they never felt that way about Clinton.
How did he gain the vote of the female conservatives? It sounds like Democrats are allowed to vote in the GOP primary in SC. Do you suppose they came out in droves and voted for Newt while they pictured a debate between him and Pres. Obama?
I'm not a Newt fan and not real happy about this victory, but aren't you a different person now than you were 15 years ago?
That aside, I believe most conservatives are willing to overlook personal peccadillos if a candidate can bring the type of leadership which will turn the tide on unemployment and growing debt load. Gingrich actually does have a good track record on this when he was Speaker Of The House. An important point to remember is that the Clinton surpluses were accomplished with a Republican House.
In conjunction with a Republican House, a Democratic administration and a growing economy. They didn't do it alone. Some might say they did it in spite of Gingrich's leadership.
Quote from: AquaMan on January 23, 2012, 09:19:10 AM
In conjunction with a Republican House, a Democratic administration and a growing economy. They didn't do it alone. Some might say they did it in spite of Gingrich's Clinton's Congress' leadership.
How did that happen anyway?
securitization I reckon. ;)
Quote from: Conan71 on January 23, 2012, 09:07:15 AM
I'm not a Newt fan and not real happy about this victory, but aren't you a different person now than you were 15 years ago?
That aside, I believe most conservatives are willing to overlook personal peccadillos if a candidate can bring the type of leadership which will turn the tide on unemployment and growing debt load. Gingrich actually does have a good track record on this when he was Speaker Of The House. An important point to remember is that the Clinton surpluses were accomplished with a Republican House.
Yes, I have more wrinkles. ;) My point was that there have been more stones thrown at people who have a better track record then Newt so he's forgiven and others aren't?
The fact that this is his third marriage doesn't bother me or make me wonder why anyone would vote for him. It's that he had proposed to each future wife while he was still married to the previous one. His timing was bad, too. Wife number one was battling cancer when he asked her for a divorce and wife number two had just learned she has m.s. when he asked her for one. He has no heart and always comes across as angry and mean. Maybe that's why only a handful of the people he was in Congress with even supported him during the vote to oust him during the Ethics Violations fiasco.. The number was something as small as 28, maybe? They would know him best and the word to describe how many of them were feeling when he won in S. C. was "cringing".
Still chuckling about the comment that he looks like a fat knee.
Quote from: Jammie on January 23, 2012, 07:27:31 PM
Yes, I have more wrinkles. ;) My point was that there have been more stones thrown at people who have a better track record then Newt so he's forgiven and others aren't?
The fact that this is his third marriage doesn't bother me or make me wonder why anyone would vote for him. It's that he had proposed to each future wife while he was still married to the previous one. His timing was bad, too. Wife number one was battling cancer when he asked her for a divorce and wife number two had just learned she has m.s. when he asked her for one. He has no heart and always comes across as angry and mean. Maybe that's why only a handful of the people he was in Congress with even supported him during the vote to oust him during the Ethics Violations fiasco.. The number was something as small as 28, maybe? They would know him best and the word to describe how many of them were feeling when he won in S. C. was "cringing".
Still chuckling about the comment that he looks like a fat knee.
Come on Jammie, don't you make an offer on a new car before you actually trade the old one in? ;)
Quote from: Conan71 on January 24, 2012, 10:28:08 AM
Come on Jammie, don't you make an offer on a new car before you actually trade the old one in? ;)
Damn, that's what I was doing wrong..wait, what? I've only had one car. It's easier/cheaper to walk now.
;D