That is my prediction. You read it here first.
The more people think about Newt, the less they like him. Mitt doesn't go up or down and will always get the 25% of Republicans who don't care that he flip flops, the rest of the field can count their supporters on two hands and Cain has left the building. Rush Limbaugh is desperately pushing Newt while Fox News is pusing Mitt and their efforts will cnacel each other out in Iowa.
Ron Paul has the best organization and his supporters like that he is crazy. I like that he is crazy too.
I can't wait to hear what the pundits say about Ron Paul making the race into a tizzy.
"I can't wait to hear what the pundits say about Ron Paul making the race into a tizzy."
It could be more of one than it already is?
Big deal...Iowa has become meaningless....most who show up for their caucus cast their vote from peer pressure and not on who they would vote for in the election.
It would be great if he ran as an independent.
24/7 has glommed onto the racist newsletter thing.
Looks like someone with powers doesn't dig Ron Paul at the moment.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/ron-paul-newsletters-youtube/52163920/1?source=twitter (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/ron-paul-newsletters-youtube/52163920/1?source=twitter)
Quote from: Teatownclown on December 22, 2011, 01:39:53 AM
Big deal...Iowa has become meaningless....most who show up for their caucus cast their vote from peer pressure and not on who they would vote for in the election.
It would be great if he ran as an independent.
So what you are saying is that the people who actually care enough about politics to be informed and motivated to go out to a caucus... are actually all idiot shills who will be peer pressured into not supporting their horse? Or presumably you speak from experience (remembering you are talking to someone who is from Iowa).
I agree that Iowa is not the end all be all, but it certainly gets a candidate attention and credibility.
Quote from: cannon_fodder on December 22, 2011, 07:20:46 PM
So what you are saying is that the people who actually care enough about politics to be informed and motivated to go out to a caucus... are actually all idiot shills who will be peer pressured into not supporting their horse? Or presumably you speak from experience (remembering you are talking to someone who is from Iowa).
I agree that Iowa is not the end all be all, but it certainly used to get a candidate attention and credibility.
Hey, CF quit putting words in my mouth. Besides Hayden Fry, what has Iowa ever done? ;)
Remember, I predicted this before the polls come out showing Ron Paul being competitive.
The caucus system leans toward organizational campaign skills and Ron Paul has dedicated supporters who have been working in Iowa for months.
Mitt has the same 20-25% in every poll for over five years. What does it say about a candidate when 75% of the voters will always support anybody else? Bachman and Perry campaigns fell apart after the most influential conservative newspaper endorsed Santorum. The ultra conservatives are about 20-25% of Iowans and the purest idealogues that support Ron Paul are also 20-25%.
My predictions...
Ron Paul 25%
Mitt Romney 24%
Rick Santorum 23%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Rick Perry 8%
Michelle Bachman 4%
Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%
Hayden Fry 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Were you aware that the Iowa caucus doesn't have a photo ID requirement? I can only guess that when the voters are all Republicans, presenting a photo ID isn't necessary.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on January 02, 2012, 01:52:55 PM
My predictions...
Ron Paul 25%
Mitt Romney 24%
Rick Santorum 23%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Rick Perry 8%
Michelle Bachman 4%
Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%
Hayden Fry 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
I was off a little on Ron Paul. Everybody else I was within two points.
I heard that the Perry camp spread a rumor that Ron Paul was going to quit the race and file as an independent. They said they had inside knowledge that Gary Johnson of New Mexico had a secret meeting in Texas that week to drop out and to agree to be Ron Paul's VP.
Ron Paul's people were blindsided.
I have one thing in common with Rick Santorum: we're both praying for Romney to take 3rd place. :-*