OK, the race is on in half an hour. Can Big Brown be beaten in the Preakness? Nobody seems to think so. I made a couple trifecta bets (something I never have the guts to do) just assuming that BB will take first. It's sort of like picking an exacta for 2nd and 3rd. But stranger things have happened that the big favorite to blow the Preakness. (I did "box" one of my trifectas...just in case BB's not infallible!)
Nope. He's the next Triple Crown winner.
OK, then...is he the next Secretariat?
When Big Brown put it in second gear in the Preakness, he passed the field as if everyone else were standing still. Does this reflect the lack of competition, or Big Brown's greatness?
I was an Alydar fan, back when Alydar came in a close second every time to Affirmed (who won the last Triple Crown). To me, that was a great year, b/c there was truly a race to be won. Affirmed had to work hard every time to beat Alydar. Big Brown hasn't even had to try (yet).
What's the scoop on Casino Drive, the Kentucky bred horse that's been training and racing in Japan? Will there be some talent to match Big Brown in the Belmont?
You are too young to have been a big Alydar/Affirmed fan. That was 1978. It was no rivalry. Affirmed won 7 of the 9.
Big Brown is very impressive and the competition is weak this year.
Trivia question...What do the terms Futurity and Derby mean in horse racing?
quote:
Originally posted by PonderInc
OK, then...is he the next Secretariat?
No.
Secretariat broke or tied the track records at the Derby, Preakness and Belmont.
Big Brown, as good as he is, wasn't close to any of those first two records and would get smoked by Secretariat.
But that's no sin. Secretariat was a one-in-a-billion horse.
Casino Drive is a very good horse who is bred and trained for the distance of the Belmont. He will also be fresher than Big Brown.
Here is a good article on him from Bloodhorse Magazine...
http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/45218.htm
One of the reasons why it is so hard to win the triple crown is that the last race is in New York. There is quite a bit of mafia influence at that track. Sometimes, the locals can make more money betting against the favorite than on it.
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
You are too young to have been a big Alydar/Affirmed fan. That was 1978. It was no rivalry. Affirmed won 7 of the 9.
Before there was Pistol Pete, my aunt and her horse Stardust used to race around the field at Oklahoma A&M football games.
There are pictures of me as a 3-year old at a horse park in Kentucky. In third grade, I wrote a school paper about Man O War. By 5th grade, I had read every Marguerrite Henry book ever written. In 6th grade, I made my family stop at Churchill Downs as we were driving to NY, so I could see where the KY Derby was run. When I was in 8th grade, we briefly had a horse in our backyard (which we walked across Harvard to a barn behind Edison...before moving her to my aunt's farm). In college, I worked at the Kentucky Horse Park. And I just recently removed the Sports Illustrated cover of Genuine Risk winning the KY Derby (1980) from under the glass of my childhood desk.
I was an Alydar fan when I was in elementary school. You can watch the races on YouTube. They were close. Affirmed had to work to win. It was a rivalry. And I STILL hate Steve Cauthen! That little whippersnapper![:)]
My apologies, you just look too young.
Big Brown has a crack in his foot...
...a quarter crack is a vertical crack in the hoof wall between the toe and heel.
http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/news;_ylt=AqEOD9hcseuBR0i8B68iioEX47kF?slug=txbigbrowninjury&prov=st&type=lgns
OK, so what's it gonna be?
Is Big Brown's quarter crack healed enough to withstand 1 1/2 miles of pounding at the Belmont?
What's the deal with Casino Drive? Can he transition from Japanese tracks to the Belmont? Will the new jocky help or hurt? Do people like him just because they haven't seen Big Brown trounce him yet...or is he the real deal?
Dennis of Cork came from 20th place at the far turn of the KY Derby to finish 3rd. Without the enormous field standing in his way, and an extra 1/4 mile, will he be able to catch Big Brown?
Seeing the way Big Brown passes horses (as if they're standing still), it's hard to imagine anyone beating him. But it's an awfully long race...
Any thoughts?
Here are the post positions...
The field, from the rail out: Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux, 2-5); Guadalcanal (Javier Castellano, 50-1); Macho Again (Garrett Gomez, 20-1); Denis of Cork (Robby Albarado, 12-1); Casino Drive (Edgar Prado, 7-2); Da'Tara (Alan Garcia, 30-1); Tale of Ekati (Eibar Coa, 20-1); Anak Nakal (Julien Leparoux, 30-1); Ready's Echo (John Velazquez, 30-1); and Icabad Crane (Jeremy Rose, 20-1).
I am betting Anak Nakal (30-1) and Icabad Crane (20-1) both to win and hope that something happens to the speed up front.
Big Brown should win easy, but I can't bet my hard-earned money for 2 to 5 return on a horse.
Dennis of Cork to Place!
Casino Drive's dam is the mother of the last two Belmont winners.
Can she go 3 for 3 on Belmont-winning offspring?
That would be pretty historic!
The jockey of Casino Royale is also the guy who rode the last two horses who broke up the triple crown.
Now Casino Drive has been scratched with a stone bruise. I'm going to try to wheel some horses under BB for a trifecta (I normally don't do anything more fancy than quinella betting at FMD....).
I do expect BB to win, but I'm also going to put some money on Dennis of Cork, just b/c I liked his effort in the Derby.
Not only did Big Brown not win the Triple Crown, he finished in last place at the Belmont. I have a theory:
It was hot in New York today and it's all George Bush's fault. Global warming and all.
Big Brown looked like a spoiled athelete that did not want to do what his coach wanted him to do....Man was that crowd silent.....Some friends of mine made some good money today....
His jockey pulled him back when he realized BB didn't have the gas. The horse would have fought harder, but couldn't have won, and the jockey didn't want him to risk any injuries just to come in 5th.
Went to Fair Meadows to watch the race. During the post parade, we were talking about how Zito (Da'Tara's trainer) is always the spoiler at the Belmont...and we didn't have any money on either of his horses. But the lines were too long to get a bet in. And it seemed so unlikely. Shoulda, woulda, coulda...
I'm waiting for the conspiracy theories... All those Dick Francis novels make me expect to hear that some groom was paid to slip a mickey in Big Brown's oats.... Or was it the lack of steroids? Or was it the heat? Or the training changes due to the quarter crack?
Or is the Triple Crown simply that hard to win? Winning 3 huge races in 5 weeks is a brutal expectation for any racehorse.
On to the Breeder's Cup...?
I was at the track Sat night too! I laid down a ton of bets all over the board (wins to shows, trifecta boxes, super tri... you name it) and didn't hit a damn thing! What are the odds of THAT?
Oh well. I've wasted worse money...
I bet on the four, the eight, and the ten horse, all to win.
Thirty bucks down the drain. I just knew that Big Brown was going to struggle with the distance, the heat, and the new york mobsters who run that track.
I missed the six horse, My eight horse went off and finished in a tie for third at 33 to one odds and the four horse came in second at six to one odds.
I did bet the ninth and tenth race at Belmont while I was there and the fifth at Lone Star. I won all those including a $43 trifecta at Lone Star with a four dollar bet.
The 1 dollar exacta box paid $379....
The superfecta paid $43,000 on a two dollar bet.
Can we blame it on a loose shoe?
(http://assets.espn.go.com/photo/2008/0623/espn_bigbrown_200.jpg)
A photograph taken during the Belmont shows Big Brown with a loose shoe. http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3456907 Of course, technology (Photoshop) being what it is, I would want to see other photos confirm this. Even so, is that enough to explain Big Brown's loss?
quote:
Originally posted by PonderInc
Can we blame it on a loose shoe?
It absolutely could have had everything to do with it. Not calling myself an expert but I've shown alot of horses and had to scratch classes because of the same situation. I know Lucas said it wouldn't bother a 'good' horse, which I thought was a low blow. But he knows it could too. Judging from the pics it looks like he's lucky it didn't rip off some hoof. I'll stand behind the jockey's actions, totally. IMHO