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Author Topic: Devon to acquire WPX  (Read 8291 times)
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2020, 09:48:17 am »

How useful or important is that 6 Million number?  One has to draw a radius of 175 miles to capture the 6 million people of which Tulsa is in the central point.  Using the same radius, Des Moines is at the center of 5.5 Million people. Springfield Missouri is in the central point of 7.2 million people.   Joplin, Missouri is in the central point of 7.2 million people.  Kansas City: 6.2 Million.  St Louis:  7.8 Million.  And of course the big kahunas of the region:  Dallas: 10 Million and Houston: 9.7 Million.  And our most recent nemesis, Austin:  12.2 million!

Tulsa is obviously hub for its region.  The goal is to make it more of a national hub considering we're only a metro of ~1M.  I look at the cities in the next tier and think with the right foundation in place we could get to that level within the next decade if we can continue to diversify the economy and our population starts to grow faster.
40. Jacksonville, FL
41. Oklahoma City
42. Raleigh, NC
43. Memphis, TN
44. Richmond, VA
45. New Orleans, LA
46. Louisville, KY
47. Salt Lake City, UT
48. Hartford, CT
49. Buffalo, NY
50. Birmingham, AL
51. Grand Rapids, MI
52. Rochester, NY
53. Tucson, AZ
54. Fresno, CA
55. Tulsa
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Oil Capital
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2020, 11:44:09 am »

Tulsa is obviously hub for its region.  The goal is to make it more of a national hub considering we're only a metro of ~1M.  I look at the cities in the next tier and think with the right foundation in place we could get to that level within the next decade if we can continue to diversify the economy and our population starts to grow faster.
40. Jacksonville, FL
41. Oklahoma City
42. Raleigh, NC
43. Memphis, TN
44. Richmond, VA
45. New Orleans, LA
46. Louisville, KY
47. Salt Lake City, UT
48. Hartford, CT
49. Buffalo, NY
50. Birmingham, AL
51. Grand Rapids, MI
52. Rochester, NY
53. Tucson, AZ
54. Fresno, CA
55. Tulsa

Well, yes, Tulsa is obviously the hub for its region.  The question is, how big is that region?  There is not really much of a case to be made for the Tulsa-centered region having a radius of 175 miles.

As to the rest of your post, yes, I suppose it is fair to say that IF Tulsa can get the right foundation in place and IF Tulsa can continue to diversify its economy and IF Tulsa's population can grow start to grow faster, it might move up to the next tier of cities.  And IF I were 7 feet tall, and IF I had been coordinated, I might have been a good basketball player.
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2020, 12:41:29 pm »

Well, yes, Tulsa is obviously the hub for its region.  The question is, how big is that region?  There is not really much of a case to be made for the Tulsa-centered region having a radius of 175 miles.

As to the rest of your post, yes, I suppose it is fair to say that IF Tulsa can get the right foundation in place and IF Tulsa can continue to diversify its economy and IF Tulsa's population can grow start to grow faster, it might move up to the next tier of cities.  And IF I were 7 feet tall, and IF I had been coordinated, I might have been a good basketball player.

I look at that list of cities in the next tier and it looks like an attainable goal to get in that mix.  I don't see any except maybe Salt Lake City and Raleigh that are clearly a head above us in not only population but national perception.  New Orleans is well-known but doesn't have a particularly dynamic economy, same with Memphis.  If our metro even just stays at its current 6.5% growth rate we'll catch up to and pass Rochester, Birmingham, Buffalo and Hartford.
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2020, 01:08:34 pm »

I look at that list of cities in the next tier and it looks like an attainable goal to get in that mix.  I don't see any except maybe Salt Lake City and Raleigh that are clearly a head above us in not only population but national perception.  New Orleans is well-known but doesn't have a particularly dynamic economy, same with Memphis.  If our metro even just stays at its current 6.5% growth rate we'll catch up to and pass Rochester, Birmingham, Buffalo and Hartford.

I suppose so.  1) surpassing the likes of Rochester and Buffalo is not much of an accomplishment and 2) I wouldn't exactly say that doing so would advance Tulsa to a higher tier of cities.

For what it's worth, assuming the growth trends of the past 9 years continue, Tulsa is on track to surpass Rochester in another 9 years, moving up to #54.
By 2046, we are on track to move ahead of Birmingham, Hartford and Buffalo, except also by that time, Greenville, SC, Omaha, Albany, and McAllen are on track to displace Tulsa, moving us back to #55.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2020, 02:45:12 pm by Oil Capital » Logged

 
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2020, 01:21:52 pm »

How useful or important is that 6 Million number?  One has to draw a radius of 175 miles to capture the 6 million people of which Tulsa is in the central point.  Using the same radius, Des Moines is at the center of 5.5 Million people. Springfield Missouri is in the central point of 7.2 million people.   Joplin, Missouri is in the central point of 7.2 million people.  Kansas City: 6.2 Million.  St Louis:  7.8 Million.  And of course the big kahunas of the region:  Dallas: 10 Million and Houston: 9.7 Million.  And our most recent nemesis, Austin:  12.2 million!

It's pretty useful and I never see the city or chamber ever try to leverage it which kind of blows my mind. Because you have OKC, NWA and SWMO all within a pretty easy drive (it's shorter to drive to NWA from Tulsa than it is Dallas to Ft Worth most of the time with traffic). This makes the recruiting ground/trade area of Tulsa much larger than most people unfamiliar with this part of the country think it is.

Right now Tulsa isn't functioning in a capacity as a regional hub as it could. And yes, you can draw circles around most cities and get large populations but what's a bit more special about Tulsa is that there isn't really a dominate city in this region currently. The reason why Dallas, Austin, Salt Lake City, Denver, etc. have all boomed in population and job growth has been because that they established themselves as a regional center. These other cities took advantage of having other large cities in close proximity like with Denver you have Colorado Springs and the entire front range area and they built a massive airport that became so big because they could pull in passengers from surrounding metros and allowed them to add additional non stop flights. This is just one example of how being a regional center can benefit the principal city. Dallas did the same thing when they built DFW so many years ago. They were able to pull in people from Oklahoma, Tyler, Waco, etc. and then that feed into them being able to become a hub airport and expand infrastructure that now pulls in major corporate relocations. Salt Lake City did the same thing and was able to pull in from Provo, Logan, etc. and now that area looks and functions as one metro area with Salt Lake as the primary regional center. I'm just using airports as an example, because it does play into business recruitment with having so many nonstop flights, but it goes into attracting retails, etc. when you have a large trade area.  

Oklahoma City is closer to Tulsa than it is to Dallas. NWA is closer to Tulsa than it is to Dallas or KC, same with portions of SWMO - it's similar distance from Tulsa as it is to St Louis or KC. So, if Tulsa had a larger airport for example you'd be able to draw in from these other large metro areas in close proximity. Even Wichita is about a similar drive to Tulsa as it is to KC.

So, if say Google, Facebook, etc. set up a regional office in Tulsa - they could in theory recruit from NWA, OKC, etc. very easily. With remote working likely becoming more prominent, you wouldn't really have to pay relocation costs as they could still live there and commute into Tulsa once or twice a week. That would be much easier than trying to recruit from Dallas to these areas because that's a 4-6 hour drive versus 1-2 hour drive.  
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2020, 02:28:38 pm »

I wonder if we had put Muncrief's face on the driller if that would have helped?
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2020, 03:10:58 pm »

It's pretty useful and I never see the city or chamber ever try to leverage it which kind of blows my mind. Because you have OKC, NWA and SWMO all within a pretty easy drive (it's shorter to drive to NWA from Tulsa than it is Dallas to Ft Worth most of the time with traffic). This makes the recruiting ground/trade area of Tulsa much larger than most people unfamiliar with this part of the country think it is.

Right now Tulsa isn't functioning in a capacity as a regional hub as it could. And yes, you can draw circles around most cities and get large populations but what's a bit more special about Tulsa is that there isn't really a dominate city in this region currently. The reason why Dallas, Austin, Salt Lake City, Denver, etc. have all boomed in population and job growth has been because that they established themselves as a regional center. These other cities took advantage of having other large cities in close proximity like with Denver you have Colorado Springs and the entire front range area and they built a massive airport that became so big because they could pull in passengers from surrounding metros and allowed them to add additional non stop flights. This is just one example of how being a regional center can benefit the principal city. Dallas did the same thing when they built DFW so many years ago. They were able to pull in people from Oklahoma, Tyler, Waco, etc. and then that feed into them being able to become a hub airport and expand infrastructure that now pulls in major corporate relocations. Salt Lake City did the same thing and was able to pull in from Provo, Logan, etc. and now that area looks and functions as one metro area with Salt Lake as the primary regional center. I'm just using airports as an example, because it does play into business recruitment with having so many nonstop flights, but it goes into attracting retails, etc. when you have a large trade area.  

Oklahoma City is closer to Tulsa than it is to Dallas. NWA is closer to Tulsa than it is to Dallas or KC, same with portions of SWMO - it's similar distance from Tulsa as it is to St Louis or KC. So, if Tulsa had a larger airport for example you'd be able to draw in from these other large metro areas in close proximity. Even Wichita is about a similar drive to Tulsa as it is to KC.

So, if say Google, Facebook, etc. set up a regional office in Tulsa - they could in theory recruit from NWA, OKC, etc. very easily. With remote working likely becoming more prominent, you wouldn't really have to pay relocation costs as they could still live there and commute into Tulsa once or twice a week. That would be much easier than trying to recruit from Dallas to these areas because that's a 4-6 hour drive versus 1-2 hour drive.  

But as I mentioned above, you have to draw a radius of 175 miles to capture those 6 million people.  In what world is Tulsa the hub for that size of area?  Tulsa's recruiting ground/trade area is just not as big as you are pretending. A good chunk of that area is closer to KC than to Tulsa. A very large chunk of that area IS the OKC metro area.  As much as we would like to think otherwise, Tulsa is in no sense the hub of anything for the population of OKC. Another big chunk of the area is closer to DFW than to Tulsa. The 175 mile radius takes in Wichita which is nearly as close to KC as it is to Tulsa and surely more commercially and culturally connected to KC than to Tulsa. (Let's face it, if the drive is fairly similar, who is going to come to Tulsa rather than Kansas City?)  

Just removing the populations of the OKC metro and Wichita metro areas from the sphere takes us down to 4 Million.  Remove Springfield and we're down to about 3 1/2 million.  Remove the parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri and Kansas that are closer to DFW, OKC and KC no doubt takes us down to less than 2 1/2 Million that are in Tulsa's sphere.

As I also demonstrated above, there is nothing particularly unique or impressive about being able to draw a circle with a 175 mile radius around Tulsa and come up with 6 Million people. Davenport Iowa's 175 mile radius circle takes in more than 17 Million!


No dominant city in the region?Huh  Your 6 million person circle brushes up against the 4th largest metro area in the country  (and includes part of DFW's combined area; includes the outskirts of the 31st largest metro areas in the country and completely includes the 41st largest.

The reason Denver has a giant airport is not because of Colorado Springs and Boulder. It's because of their mid-continent location, huge tourist trade, and lage Denver metro area providing a large and solid O&D base.  OKC being closer to Tulsa than to Dallas is worth what?  How is Tulsa ever going to have an airport that can remotely compete with even Will Rogers, let alone DFW and Love Field.  Not. Going. To. Happen.

We're seriously suppposed to recruit companies to Tulsa on the basis that it's an easier commute from OKC to Tulsa than from OKC to Dallas?  Or on the basis that it's slightly easier commute from Wichita to Tulsa than from Wichita to Kansas City (which is not even true)?

There is a reason the Tulsa Chamber of Commerce has not pursued this path.  It's nonsense.  It might make some sense for recruiting warehouses, but not much else.


FWIW , the The Ranally city rating system is a tool developed by Rand McNally & Co. to classify U.S. cities based on their economic function. The system is designed to reflect an underlying hierarchy whereby consumers and businesses go to a city of a certain size for a certain function; some functions are widely available and others are only available in the largest cities. Ranally categorizes Tulsa as 2-AA "Major Regional Business Center". One notch below Oklahoma City and equal to Wichita (in other words neither Wichita nor Oklahoma City are in Tulsa's trade area.  Tulsa's trade area extends to Coffeyville Kansas, Muskogoee, and Bartlesville; maybe a bit into northwest Arkansas, and that's about it. (Joplin and even Miami, Oklahoma are in the Kansas City trade area.)
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 12:25:57 pm by Oil Capital » Logged

 
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2020, 03:30:29 pm »

nm
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2020, 08:20:35 pm »

Back to WPX, unfortunately that is what energy companies are forced into doing right now to survive.  If it wasn’t Devon it could’ve been Apache or another larger company.  OKC has had one of its largest companies file for bankruptcy (CHK) with a workforce that is a fraction of what it once was.  Same for Chapperal Energy, Sandridge and others. 

Energy is a volatile industry and there have been other Tulsa companies negatively impacted while our midstream companies are relatively stable.  I like where GKFF is heading with its economic initiatives, these are the type of industries that could easily cluster in Tulsa:
1. Virtual Health
2. Clean Tech
3. Drones
4. Cyber
5. Analytics
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2020, 09:32:59 pm »

Hopefully the building gets built, as I believe it can act as a dynamic focal point for the districts in the area.  So far seems like that will be the case.  Fingers crossed.  

 Course it's not good to lose all the jobs, but on the other hand, oil is a dying industry period, not just in Tulsa, and businesses, and governments, should shift attention towards a cleaner, brighter future and the businesses that will be the businesses of tomorrow.  Whatever oil companies that are still here, will continue to leave or die until they are pretty much all gone in 15-20 years. So there should be no surprises in that regard.
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« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2020, 09:54:28 pm »

But as I mentioned above, you have to draw a radius of 175 miles to capture those 6 million people.  In what world is Tulsa the hub for that size of area?  Tulsa's recruiting ground/trade area is just not as big as you are pretending. A good chunk of that area is closer to KC than to Tulsa. A very large chunk of that area IS the OKC metro area.  As much as we would like to think otherwise, Tulsa is in no sense the hub of anything for the population of OKC. Another big chunk of the area is closer to DFW than to Tulsa. The 175 mile radius takes in Wichita which is nearly as close to KC as it is to Tulsa and surely more commercially and culturally connected to KC than to Tulsa. (Let's face it, if the drive is fairly similar, who is going to come to Tulsa rather than Kansas City?)  

Just removing the populations of the OKC metro and Wichita metro areas from the sphere takes us down to 4 Million.  Remove Springfield and we're down to about 3 1/2 million.  Remove the parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri and Kansas that are closer to DFW, OKC and KC no doubt takes us down to less than 2 1/2 Million that are in Tulsa's sphere.

As I also demonstrated above, there is nothing particularly unique or impressive about being able to draw a circle with a 175 mile radius around Tulsa and come up with 6 Million people. Davenport Iowa's 175 mile radius circle takes in more than 17 Million!


No dominant city in the region?Huh  Your 6 million person circle brushes up against the 4th and 31st largest metro areas in the country and completely includes the 41st largest.

The reason Denver has a giant airport is not because of Colorado Springs and Boulder. It's because of their mid-continent location, huge tourist trade, and lage Denver metro area providing a large and solid O&D base.  OKC being closer to Tulsa than to Dallas is worth what?  How is Tulsa ever going to have an airport that can remotely compete with even Will Rogers, let alone DFW and Love Field.  Not. Going. To. Happen.

We're seriously suppposed to recruit companies to Tulsa on the basis that it's an easier commute from OKC to Tulsa than from OKC to Dallas?  Or on the basis that it's slightly easier commute from Wichita to Tulsa than from Wichita to Kansas City (which is not even true)?

There is a reason the Tulsa Chamber of Commerce has not pursued this path.  It's nonsense.  It might make some sense for recruiting warehouses, but not much else.


FWIW , the The Ranally city rating system is a tool developed by Rand McNally & Co. to classify U.S. cities based on their economic function. The system is designed to reflect an underlying hierarchy whereby consumers and businesses go to a city of a certain size for a certain function; some functions are widely available and others are only available in the largest cities. Ranally categorizes Tulsa as 2-AA "Major Regional Business Center". One notch below Oklahoma City and equal to Wichita (in other words neither Wichita nor Oklahoma City are in Tulsa's trade area.  Tulsa's trade area extends to Coffeyville Kansas, Muskogoee, and Bartlesville maybe a bit into northwest Arkansas, and that's about it. (Joplin and even Miami, Oklahoma are in the Kansas City trade area.)

You completely missed the point I was making, but ok. The point is Tulsa has the opportunity to market itself different and BECOME a regional hub. We do a very poor job at taking advantage of our location and surrounding metropolitan areas. We get stuck in this we are a very small city of only a million when other regions have figured out how to capture from larger trade areas.

If a Louis Vuitton opened in Utica Square and someone wanted to see it in person and lived in OKC, where are they going to go? Dallas or Tulsa, they will drive to Tulsa most likely because it's closer. If Tulsa's airport was bigger and had a direct flight to London and someone in OKC or NWA or Wichita wanted a direct flight where would they go, Tulsa. Not Dallas or Denver if quickest drive time was the deciding factor.

Seems like your arguing just to argue when the only point I'm making is Tulsa sits in an area of a bigger population than most think and we do a very poor job at taking advantage of it while other cities like Salt Lake, Denver, Dallas, etc. have done so very well and it has paid off in being able to attract a lot of good jobs and economic growth. Do you disagree with that? I'm not really even sure what point you're trying to make.


Why do you think the BOK Center has been so successful and one of the top arena's in the globe in several years. It's because we sit in an area where we can draw in people from beyond just the Tulsa MSA... like OKC, NWA, SWMO, etc. So when there's a concert in Tulsa they want to see they are willing to drive here given it's the closest arena. If the same band was playing in Dallas or KC, Tulsa is the closest drive. That's not a hard concept to understand and there were many people who thought Tulsa couldn't support the BOK Center and that it would be empty all the time. Infrastructure and Civic investments where we have a bigger vision can pay off and is shown to in other cities too.

That brings in the question of WPX and the future of Tulsa. We have got to stop thinking small and take advantage of our location and given the office market is likely to ruction very differently post COVID and shift to more regional offices with more remote workers. If we don't plan for this, I can guarantee you NWA and OKC and others will and Tulsa will again be left in the past.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2020, 10:19:19 pm by LandArchPoke » Logged
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« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2020, 09:10:54 am »

You completely missed the point I was making, but ok. The point is Tulsa has the opportunity to market itself different and BECOME a regional hub. We do a very poor job at taking advantage of our location and surrounding metropolitan areas. We get stuck in this we are a very small city of only a million when other regions have figured out how to capture from larger trade areas.

If a Louis Vuitton opened in Utica Square and someone wanted to see it in person and lived in OKC, where are they going to go? Dallas or Tulsa, they will drive to Tulsa most likely because it's closer. If Tulsa's airport was bigger and had a direct flight to London and someone in OKC or NWA or Wichita wanted a direct flight where would they go, Tulsa. Not Dallas or Denver if quickest drive time was the deciding factor.

Seems like your arguing just to argue when the only point I'm making is Tulsa sits in an area of a bigger population than most think and we do a very poor job at taking advantage of it while other cities like Salt Lake, Denver, Dallas, etc. have done so very well and it has paid off in being able to attract a lot of good jobs and economic growth. Do you disagree with that? I'm not really even sure what point you're trying to make.


Why do you think the BOK Center has been so successful and one of the top arena's in the globe in several years. It's because we sit in an area where we can draw in people from beyond just the Tulsa MSA... like OKC, NWA, SWMO, etc. So when there's a concert in Tulsa they want to see they are willing to drive here given it's the closest arena. If the same band was playing in Dallas or KC, Tulsa is the closest drive. That's not a hard concept to understand and there were many people who thought Tulsa couldn't support the BOK Center and that it would be empty all the time. Infrastructure and Civic investments where we have a bigger vision can pay off and is shown to in other cities too.

That brings in the question of WPX and the future of Tulsa. We have got to stop thinking small and take advantage of our location and given the office market is likely to ruction very differently post COVID and shift to more regional offices with more remote workers. If we don't plan for this, I can guarantee you NWA and OKC and others will and Tulsa will again be left in the past.

No, I didn't miss your point, AT ALL.  I'm just living in the real world, not the imaginary, delusional world you are inhabiting.  It is not just a failure to think big that has kept Tulsa from having a bigger airport and a Louis Vuitton store. It has a lot more to do with the fact that we aren't a 6-million-person market. Pretending to be a 6-million-person market is not going to magically cause such things to happen.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2020, 09:42:26 am by Oil Capital » Logged

 
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« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2020, 09:59:09 am »

No, I didn't miss your point, AT ALL.  I'm just living in the real world, not the imaginary, delusional world you are inhabiting.  It is not just a failure to think big that has kept Tulsa from having a bigger airport and a Louis Vuitton store. It has a lot more to do with the fact that we aren't a 6-million-person market. Pretending to be a 6-million-person market is not going to magically cause such things to happen.

I hope you don't work for the chamber or economic development, keep living in the small town mindset. It's gotten Tulsa really far so far. Don't take into account the world is change over the next 10 years or that this region has changed in the past 10 years.

Don't be such an d*** to people who have a different vision for the city or different perspective. Calling people delusional is not needed, take a chill pill and step away. It's really not that serious for other people to have different thought, good grief. I will not be responding to you again.

Wichita to Downtown KCMO: 195 Miles
Wichita to Downtown Tulsa: 176 Miles

Joplin to Downtown KCMO: 158 Miles
Joplin to Downtown Tulsa: 113 Miles

Springfield to Downtown Tulsa: 181 Miles
Springfield to Downtown KCMO: 166 Miles (10 mins faster)

source: Google Maps, check it.

COMPLETELY DELUSIONAL AND FALSE I TELL YOU. There's no hope in ever marketing Tulsa from a regional perspective ever!! LOL  Roll Eyes
« Last Edit: September 30, 2020, 06:57:58 pm by LandArchPoke » Logged
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« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2020, 04:57:02 pm »

I hope you don't work for the chamber or economic development, keep living in the small town mindset. It's gotten Tulsa really far so far. Don't take into account the world is change over the next 10 years or that this region has changed in the past 10 years.
 

Let's hope our chamber of commerce and other economic development people are not wasting their time trying to recruit luxury retailers, airlines and potential business relocations on the basis of an imaginary 6-million-person market.  Providing verifiably false information tends to be counterproductive.
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2020, 01:38:14 pm »

This and Santa Fe Square should be the last office space projects for the foreseeable future. Downtown should then focus on becoming a true neighborhood with infill focused on housing (mid-scale housing preferably to the mega complexes that we've seen recently), grocers, retailers, dry cleaners, drug stores, things that stay open through the evening for local residents to do their daily things and that can also attract outsiders for shopping or unique needs. I know there are barriers to that, but I am still a dreamer that downtown could be a real mixed neighborhood throughout the entire IDL.
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