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September 20, 2018, 08:48:58 am
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Author Topic: Tulsa metro population growth.  (Read 2749 times)
ZYX
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« on: September 04, 2011, 08:49:06 pm »

Tulsa's metro population is now estimated to be 952,013 as of Sep. 1st, up from 937,476 on April 1st, 2010. That's a growth of 14,537 in one year and five months! This puts us on tract to be 1.15 million or higher by 2020. Hopefully a lot of that growth will be infill for the Tulsa city limits.

What I really want to see though, is the population estimate for the city limits, not just the metro.
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OwenParkPhil
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2011, 03:18:56 pm »

I've learned from past experience they really manipulate the population numbers in the "metro" area.  The "metro" area keeps getting bigger and bigger and further away from Tulsa city limits.
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cynical
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2011, 08:09:29 pm »

I've learned from past experience they really manipulate the population numbers in the "metro" area.  The "metro" area keeps getting bigger and bigger and further away from Tulsa city limits.

If you think about it, when a metro area grows in population, the area gets larger.

I don't think the definition Tulsa MSA has changed in the past ten years. Growth has been modest compared with cities such as Tucson and Albuquerque.
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DTowner
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2011, 01:42:18 pm »

1.5% yearly growth rate should be the bare minimum for our area (and probably does not keep pace with OKC).  I would prefer to see an average of 2 - 2.5% over the next decade to fuel the kind of development and growth most of us want to see for Tulsa.
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Oil Capital
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2011, 01:48:47 pm »

I've learned from past experience they really manipulate the population numbers in the "metro" area.  The "metro" area keeps getting bigger and bigger and further away from Tulsa city limits.

I believe the last time the Tulsa metro area got bigger and farther away from the Tulsa city limits was following the 1980 census.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2011, 01:57:21 pm by Oil Capital » Logged

 
Oil Capital
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2018, 10:34:28 am »

2017 metro population estimates released today.

Tulsa metro population, July 1, 2017:  990,706
2016 population estimate:  987,465

one-year growth:  3,241
one-year growth rate:  0.3%

July 1, 2010:  939,776
7-year growth:  50,930
7-year growth rate:  5.4%

Hopefully, our growth has accelerated a bit, or we won't make the million mark by the 2020 census.
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cannon_fodder
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2018, 12:11:53 pm »

Ouch.

.3% has to be well below the net birth-death rate.  Statewide there were 52,607 births and 39,277 deaths.  I can't imagine Tulsa deviates that far from the norm for the State, in either direction.  So factoring in people born here, Tulsa Metro is a net exporter of population?

If that's true, it's very bad news.  4% unemployment and a stagnant population is a weird thing to see.  Makes it very hard to convince companies they should move or expand here because it indicates they may have a hard time finding employees.

Obviously better than losing population, but...
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2018, 03:38:15 pm »

Ouch.

.3% has to be well below the net birth-death rate.  Statewide there were 52,607 births and 39,277 deaths.  I can't imagine Tulsa deviates that far from the norm for the State, in either direction.  So factoring in people born here, Tulsa Metro is a net exporter of population?

If that's true, it's very bad news.  4% unemployment and a stagnant population is a weird thing to see.  Makes it very hard to convince companies they should move or expand here because it indicates they may have a hard time finding employees.

Obviously better than losing population, but...

Good point.  Here are the numbers (from the Census Bureau):

2016-2017 population growth:  +3,241
Natural Increase (births over deaths): +3,724
Net migration:  -467
Net domestic migration:  -2,416
Net international migration:  +1,949

For the seven years 2010-2017:
Population growth:  +53,175
Natural Increase:  +30,212
Net migration:  +23,395
Net domestic migration:  +12,344
Net international migration:  +11,051

2016-17 looks like probably (hopefully) a temporary hangover from the oil & gas market.
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heironymouspasparagus
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2018, 04:40:19 pm »

Ouch.

.3% has to be well below the net birth-death rate.  Statewide there were 52,607 births and 39,277 deaths.  I can't imagine Tulsa deviates that far from the norm for the State, in either direction.  So factoring in people born here, Tulsa Metro is a net exporter of population?

If that's true, it's very bad news.  4% unemployment and a stagnant population is a weird thing to see.  Makes it very hard to convince companies they should move or expand here because it indicates they may have a hard time finding employees.

Obviously better than losing population, but...


Or vice versa...I have some family members who would like to move back and have been having trouble finding something here.  In the meantime, they have been to places like Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Eugene, and Portland.  Go figure - why they would want to move back here for the pay cut and less to do?

One St Louis - that makes perfect sense.  Knoxville/Oak Ridge...again, why?


I suspect there is a whole lot of our 'ambience' involved, too - people and companies seeing on the national stage how regularly our Clown Show in OKC passes the ignorant carp they spew and they just don't wanna deal with that.  Especially the way we are destroying education....  And ignoring infrastructure decay.   They are getting a good view of what we are fundamentally all about with Scott Pruitt.   Not a pretty picture.

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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2018, 05:17:53 pm »

Lack of high growth industries is the root cause of low population growth.  Tulsa needs more aerospace (already a strong sector) and technology jobs to offset cyclical losses from oil & gas.  On the other hand with oil & gas doing better that likely means higher growth for this next year.  I think there is somewhat of a positive momentum currently in the city that hopefully carries over to higher job and population growth.  I still think the Tulsa metro easily tops 1 million by 2020 and I hope the city can be in the 420,000 range, which would be a 30k increase from 2010.
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Conan71
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2018, 06:07:22 pm »

2017 metro population estimates released today.

Tulsa metro population, July 1, 2017:  990,706
2016 population estimate:  987,465

one-year growth:  3,241
one-year growth rate:  0.3%

July 1, 2010:  939,776
7-year growth:  50,930
7-year growth rate:  5.4%

Hopefully, our growth has accelerated a bit, or we won't make the million mark by the 2020 census.

And this illustrates why Tulsa's dependence on sales tax for operating funds is bad.  Tulsa's growth has been what would be considered "flat" for at least three decades.
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2018, 07:58:56 pm »

I was thinking this was the kind of "growth" that we would be having if not a net population loss.  In earlier data the Black population was holding steady, the white population was declining, and the only growth we had was with Hispanics. Then came the current "non welcoming" environment, so figured even the Hispanic growth would decline. 

Meanwhile we have sprawled more and added more infrastructure to pay for. 

I wonder what the average/median incomes have done?  Is the general populace getting wealthier or poorer? Thats a concern for me as a retailer for if population and or incomes are not increasing that means my growth will rely more on "stealing" customers from other businesses.  Though I am focusing a lot now on Tourism dollars.
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2018, 08:08:35 pm »

I was thinking this was the kind of "growth" that we would be having if not a net population loss.  In earlier data the Black population was holding steady, the white population was declining, and the only growth we had was with Hispanics. Then came the current "non welcoming" environment, so figured even the Hispanic growth would decline.  

Meanwhile we have sprawled more and added more infrastructure to pay for.  

I wonder what the average/median incomes have done?  Is the general populace getting wealthier or poorer? Thats a concern for me as a retailer for if population and or incomes are not increasing that means my growth will rely more on "stealing" customers from other businesses.  Though I am focusing a lot now on Tourism dollars.

It would be interesting to see those figures.  I know in cities like Denver and Austin wages have increased but real estate prices have increased even more so people don't feel as wealthy.  

I get the sense that secondary markets will be the growth centers during the next market cycle.  This one has favored the largest cities and it will be the secondary markets with strong tech sectors that benefit from the next boom.  Unfortunately I don't think Tulsa is currently well-positioned to take advantage of that due to the state's lack of education funding and lack of a large public university.  The quality of life and downtown improvements that Tulsa is making, along with the inherent cost of living advantage and skilled workforce in certain industries (O&G, aerospace, manufacturing) could make up for some of that.  Tulsa is also rightfully labeled a creative center and has a vibrant arts scene, especially visual art and live music, which can help draw a younger workforce.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2018, 08:11:19 pm by SXSW » Logged

 
Laramie
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2018, 08:43:34 am »

You will see Tulsa's metro growth rebound as oil prices continue to rise.   Oklahoma's population is tied to the Energy sector; as our two largest metro areas become more diverse with jobs like the Amazon's  announcement of a Fulfillment center in Tulsa;  these 1,500 jobs of which are on the higher wage end does help break away from the oil & energy sector ties.

Amazon Announces Further Expansion in Oklahoma with Tulsa Fulfillment Center:  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180608005777/en/Amazon-Announces-Expansion-Oklahoma-Tulsa-Fulfillment-Center
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