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November 24, 2017, 11:02:11 am
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Author Topic: Make your predictions on the 2016 Presidential election - summer contest  (Read 1580 times)
RecycleMichael
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« on: July 27, 2016, 10:08:10 am »

It is fifteen weeks out today and your job is to predict the winner of the final popular vote and by what percentage rounded to the tenth of a point. Please also predict the second place finisher and their percentage of the vote. Finally, guess the percentage of the remaining candidates.

For example, in 2012, Obama won with 51.1 %, Romney was second with 47.2% and others were 1.7%

The winner will be determined by the closest to the election winner candidate guess with their second pick as a tie-breaker. A third tie-breaker would be the person who posted first.

This contest will close for entries on August 31st of 2016 at midnight. I will then start another contest for the fall guesses.

The winner will get a 6-pack of locally produced beer, a locally produced pizza, and a dessert from a local bakery. If any of you posters would like to donate products or services for the next contest, send me a private message. There is no obligation to defend your guesses and it in no way implies your own personal political views. This is for prizes. It is a bizness thang.

Please attempt to limit comments on other posters predictions. There are many other threads that anyone can start to convince us of your truth and I have found Facebook to be equally ineffective at changing opinions.
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RecycleMichael
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2016, 10:09:24 am »

I predict:

Clinton 51.1%
Trump 46.1%
others 2.8%
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AquaMan
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Just Cruz'n


« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 10:16:48 am »

Clinton 52.4%
Trump 41.2%
Others 6.3%

*hanging chads, fell on floor under machine, voted twice, power surge corrupted vote, cheaters-.01%
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onward...through the fog
Conan71
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2016, 12:22:28 pm »

Clinton 47.3
Trump 46.1
Others 6.6

I’m going to borrow FiveThirtyEight’s prediction of Trump winning the Electoral College 270-268.
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"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first” -Ronald Reagan
davideinstein
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2016, 04:02:45 pm »

Hillary 58%
Trump 37%
Other 5%
« Last Edit: August 17, 2016, 02:05:26 pm by davideinstein » Logged
swake
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2016, 07:07:30 pm »

Popular Vote:
Clinton 52%
Trump 44%
Others 4%

Electoral College:
Clinton 357
Trump 181

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heironymouspasparagus
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2016, 08:40:13 pm »

Why the 0.1%?  That takes too much thinking!!

Guess I am gonna have to post a 'flyer' here.  Don't really expect these numbers, but hey, what the heck....  I don't really have this much faith in my fellow Americans.


Clinton  63%
Trump   34%
Others  3%

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“When you wage war on the public schools, you're attacking the mortar that holds the community together. You're not a conservative, you're a vandal.”    - Garrison Keillor

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Ed W
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2016, 07:51:44 am »

I'll go big too.

Clinton 57%
Trump 41%
Third parties 2%

Five Thirty Eight has been showing a tightening race over the last month, but I'm expecting Trump will trip over his...um...tiny hands a few more times before the election.
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Ed

"In a democracy, people get the government they deserve"...Joseph de Maistre
heironymouspasparagus
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 01:31:01 pm »

I'll go big too.

Clinton 57%
Trump 41%
Third parties 2%

Five Thirty Eight has been showing a tightening race over the last month, but I'm expecting Trump will trip over his...um...tiny hands a few more times before the election.


Hey!  You trying to take my beer and pizza??


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“When you wage war on the public schools, you're attacking the mortar that holds the community together. You're not a conservative, you're a vandal.”    - Garrison Keillor

Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without.

What you do speaks so loud, I cannot hear what you say.
Ed W
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2016, 03:40:47 pm »


Hey!  You trying to take my beer and pizza??




I only rarely have beer or pizza, so if I win I'll donate it to whoever is in second place and I'll have a salad instead. And I'll salivate heavily ala Pavlov's puppy.

Seriously, you're far more optimistic than me. I don't think anyone has received 55% of the popular vote - ever - but I didn't check so I could be mistaken.
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Ed

"In a democracy, people get the government they deserve"...Joseph de Maistre
swake
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2016, 03:55:15 pm »

A week or so after the Democratic convention will be the first real reliable poll. The next important poll will be the week after the first debate, which I expect to be a pretty epic disaster. The Trumpster was pretty terrible in the Republican primary debates but he could hide for long periods of time with so many others on stage with him. Plus the fact that Trump doesn't handle being confronted by women well.

I kinda expect there to only be one debate.
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RecycleMichael
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2016, 07:03:42 pm »

I kinda expect there to only be one debate.

I don't want to see Hillary versus Donald or even the Veep candidates. I want a debate between Melania and Chelsea.
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cannon_fodder
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2016, 07:14:01 am »

You want a prediction about the race.. I’ll give you a prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.

But by the numbers:

The Clinton: 53%
The Donald: 49%
The Johnson: 8%


Bonus out on a limb prediction: at least 1 Oklahoma County does not go Trump.

 
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 10:41:30 am by cannon_fodder » Logged

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Tulsa Zephyr
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 08:53:47 am »

Clinton = 51.2%
Trump  = 42.6%
Other   =  6.2%
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sgrizzle
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Inconceivable!


WWW
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 12:05:12 pm »

I'm voting on more people being disenfranchised:

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 43%
Johnson, etc: 12%
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