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March 29, 2024, 01:19:54 am
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Author Topic: Your Swing-State Predictions  (Read 16884 times)
nathanm
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« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2012, 07:01:38 pm »

;-)  You may want to recount your electoral vote projection.

No thanks, Obama's up by 3 in Ohio and Nevada, and up by 2 in New Hampshire and Iowa, all of which have had little or no polling showing Romney in the lead. Furthermore, it seems unlikely that Romney will sweep all of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. Even if he does, Obama will already be at 281.  Grin

If forced to predict the remaining states, I'd say Colorado and Virginia go Obama and North Carolina and Florida go Romney, although Romney and Obama are tied in the last week of polling in Florida. Romney has held an appreciable lead in Florida at times this year, but not in Colorado. I stay with 290 to avoid disappointment even though my gut says 303 for Obama. Wink
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« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2012, 08:21:33 am »

Today's NY Post cover:
http://www.nypost.com/rw/nypost/2012/11/06/media/nypostcover_110612.pdf
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Gaspar
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« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2012, 08:38:51 am »

As expected!

Early & Absentee count from Ohio so far.  Strong shift to Romney.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/?nclick_check=1

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Conan71
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« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2012, 09:03:31 am »

As expected!

Early & Absentee count from Ohio so far.  Strong shift to Romney.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/?nclick_check=1



Obvious signs of voter suppression.
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Townsend
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« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2012, 09:14:05 am »

Drudge is having a come-apart about the Panthers again.
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Townsend
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« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2012, 09:30:57 am »

Nate Silver Says Obama Has a 91.6 Percent Chance of Winning the Election

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/11/06/nate_silver_nyt_polling_expert_gives_obama_a_big_edge_on_election_day.html

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Today is Nov. 6, which means it's Election Day. It also means that Nate Silver's much-debated "forecast" and "now-cast" are now one and the same. Here are the latest (and we assume final) projections from the New York Times' polling blogger and psephologist, whose ongoing forecast has become one of the leading secondary storylines this campaign season as much of Washington's chattering class refused to believe this race is/was anything but a toss-up.

Electoral vote: President Obama 314.6, Mitt Romney 223.4. That's a 15.6-vote swing since Oct. 20, and the president's largest advantage in Silver's forecast since Sept. 10, when Obama was projected to win 314.9 electoral votes to Romney's 223.1

Popular vote: Obama 50.9 percent, Romney 48.3 percent. That's a half-point gain for Obama (and a 0.2 drop for Romney) in the past week. Obama's never trailed in Silver's forecasted popular vote, but hasn't topped the 51.6 percent mark since the forecast began early this summer.

Chances of winning: Obama 91.6 percent, Romney 8.4 percent. The final forecast gives the president his best chance of winning that he's had all season in Silvers' Nov. 6 forecast. Previously, Obama's best odds had topped out at 87.1 percent on Oct. 4. Silver's now-cast, meanwhile—which is supposed to provide a snapshot of where the president stands on a particular day (and not where it would likely stand on Election Day)—gave Obama a 98.1 percent chance of winning back on Sept. 30.

It's worth noting that as Silver's critics became louder during the campaign's final days, his projections did not hedge toward the center, something that (intentionally or not) would have given him more cover if Romney ends up winning the election. Instead, over the past seven days Silver's forecast for Obama's chances of victory increased by 14.2 percent (his now-cast likewise climbed by 12.1 percent).

Silver's confidence in an Obama victory stems heavily from the president's prospects in Ohio, a battleground state that Romney likely needs to win to have any chance at pulling off the upset. Silver's latest calculations give the president a 91.4 percent chance of taking the Buckeye State.
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Townsend
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2012, 09:39:46 am »

Intrade:



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Intrade, the popular online gambling website, predicts that President Obama will win re-election. As of 8 a.m. EST Tuesday, this map reflects predictions based on "the last trade prices for each market,"
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Townsend
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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2012, 11:29:20 am »

The Black Panther Panic Returns!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/11/06/the_black_panther_panic_returns.html

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Over the weekend, Will Bunch checked in with the pathetic remnant of clowns who call themselves the "New Black Panther Party." Would they show up again at polling places in Philadelphia? Would they give that free b-roll to Fox News?

Yes, they would.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-7rkSmdDIIU[/youtube]

The Panthers are so stupid that they deployed to the same site they hit in 2008: The 4th district of Philadelphia's 14th ward. Very few of the people who hyperventilate about this story have been to the polling place and check out its vote. I have. The precinct, located in a retirement home, gave 596 votes to Barack Obama in 2008. It gave 13 votes to John McCain. Four years earlier, it had given 24 votes to George W. Bush. It's a heavily black, Democratic area, which is why -- four years after the first Fox freakout -- no one has ever emerged to say he or she wanted to vote but was suppressed by the Panthers. And hell, in 2008, the Panthers had nightsticks. There's one guy now, armed with nothing.
Let's be serious about this. One month ago, a court struck down part of Pennsylvania's voter ID law. Voters in the state do not have to show ID, though poll workers may ask for it. Since then, the state has continued to run ads that tell voters to come to polls with ID -- "SHOW IT" in large print, "if you have it in small print." It's likely that legitimate voters who lack multiple forms of ID have seen this, and assumed it'll be tougher to vote today.

But it's boring to talk about a bogus campaign to complicate the vote in the entire state. It's exciting to show a scary-looking black dude on TV, and imply to the Fox News viewer that another scary trooper -- maybe a UN worker! -- is laying in wait at his polling place.
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DolfanBob
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« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2012, 11:54:22 am »

That's about the equivalent of KKK members opening doors for people at a polling place in Montgomery. Alabama.
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Gaspar
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« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2012, 12:23:42 pm »

I miss the Old Black Panthers.  They were just better, like original Coke.
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Teatownclown
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Put the "fun" back into dysfunctional, Tulsa!


« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2012, 01:14:59 pm »

You do realize starting tomorrow the Panthers will be posted all over the country opening doors for white women.

Think of it this way, you now have something to obsess about for the next 4 years....
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nathanm
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2012, 01:34:49 pm »

As expected!

Early & Absentee count from Ohio so far.  Strong shift to Romney.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/?nclick_check=1

Removed?

According to USEP, early voting turnout was up in the usual Democratic counties.
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"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2012, 01:35:49 pm »

Removed?

According to USEP, early voting turnout was up in the usual Democratic counties.

ROFL.  Why isn't that surprising...
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Townsend
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« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2012, 01:41:41 pm »

ROFL.  Why isn't that surprising...

As expected.
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Gaspar
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2012, 01:49:28 pm »

Debbie Wasserman Schultz said today that if President Obama is not re-elected she is going back on tour with Twisted Sister.
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