|
carltonplace
|
 |
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2012, 03:05:20 pm » |
|
The Redskins Rule
Since 1936, the Washington Redskins' performance in their final home game has served as one predictor of how the general election will swing. If the Redskins win, the incumbent stays in power. If they don't, the challenger takes the Oval Office. The glaring exception is in 2004 when the Redskins and John Kerry both lost.
Who will win: Romney. The Panthers defeated the Redskins this past Sunday.
7-Eleven cup election
The convenience store started selling Republican and Democratic coffee cups in 2000, and the party with the most mugs sold wins the Oval Office. The results predicted George W. Bush's two victories and Barack Obama's.
Who will win: Obama. The incumbent holds a commanding 59 percent to 41 percent lead in the 7-11 election. Of course, this election is a bit skewed. Obama is carrying Texas, which likely won't swing his way.
Alabama vs. LSU
This is a bit like the Redskins rule. If Alabama wins, the Democrat wins. If LSU wins, the Republican candidate wins. This has held true for the past seven elections, including a nail-biter between LSU and Alabama in 2000.
Who will win: Obama. Alabama came back to beat LSU.
The 14-year rule
National Journal writer Jonathan Rauch said presidential candidates have expiration dates, and the sell-by date usually hits around 14 years. Other than Lyndon B. Johnson, every president since Teddy Roosevelt has made it to the Oval Office within 14 years of their first major office.
Who will win: Romney. His first major office was governor in 2003 so he is well under the 14-year limit. Obama is close, but he's over 14 years at this point.
Halloween masks
It's a silly statistic, but the number of Halloween masks has correlated to the winner of the Electoral College since Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in Halloween mask sales.
Who will win: Romney. Romney holds a 2 percent lead over Obama, according to BuyCostumes.com.
Lakers Law
If the Lakers go to the NBA Championship during an election year, the Republican candidate will be in the Oval Office. This has been true eight times in the past – 1952, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004. It was wrong four years ago, though, as the Lakers won the title, but John McCain didn't win the election.
Who will win: Obama. The Lakers missed the NBA Finals, which was won by the Miami Heat.
Futures market trading
These statistics are a bit shaky, but we will mention them since this is all in good fun. Intrade.com sells future contracts for presidential candidates, and the presidential market did turn out to be accurate last year as Barack Obama won. But the Intrade presidential market doesn't have much of a track record.
A similar exchange – the Iowa Electronic Markets – has a similar future sale that's correctly called every election since 1988.
Who will win: Obama. He is trading higher in both markets. Click here to see the Iowa Market and here for the Intrade.com.
First lady cookie contest
Family Circle had a string of success after picking four-straight presidential elections off its first lady cookie contest. Cindy McCain took the win four years ago, but her husband didn't win the general election.
Who will win: Obama. Michelle Obama beat Ann Romney in this election cycle's bake-off.
The Non-Voter count
Despite two hiccups, the Scholastic News Election poll has successfully picked the president since 1940. The two mistakes were Thomas E. Dewey, which the Chicago Tribune famously got wrong, and Richard Nixon. The poll surveys children from first through 12th grade to see who they would vote for.
Who will win: Obama. He holds a 51 percent of the student vote, and he also narrowly lost Texas to Romney. Here are the results.
Baskin-Robbins ice cream race
Like the future market trading, this predictor is a bit crazy. It doesn't have a long history of being correct, but it did correctly predict Barack Obama's victory four years ago.
Who will win: Undecided. As far as we can see, Baskin Robbins hasn't produced a Mitt Romney or Barack Obama flavor. If they did, we could have had binders full of cookie dough or another scoop of whirl of change.
Astrologers' prediction
The United Astrology Conference meets every four years to try to forecast the future president of the U.S. Four years ago, the group of five astrologers all agreed that Barack Obama was the clear victor.
Who will win: Obama. The astrologers predicted Obama will be a two-term president.
Source: Houston Chronicle
.
|
