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December 12, 2017, 10:13:18 am
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Author Topic: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock  (Read 2361 times)
swake
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2015, 12:57:50 pm »

Commercial aircraft are pretty much autonomous already but the FAA's pesky regulations insist on having two humans on the flight deck as backups. Consider how much money could be saved by eliminating those regulations and the superfluous jobs. Sure, an occasional aircraft would go down in the Hudson but that's negligible in a cost/benefit analysis. I'm sure Sen Infofe would be on board for this one since he'd obviously benefit from such automation.

Most of our recent plane crashes have been due to the humans on board, not the computers doing most of the flying. Trains too.

Traction control features in cars today already react better to loss of control problems than humans do. Give that the system control of steering along with wheel spin with the ability to see objects and terrain and a computer would do far better than a human ever could hope to. 
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heironymouspasparagus
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2015, 01:15:21 pm »

Something new, same fears:
.
.
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Hell, people made the same arguments against all sorts of mechanization.  There will be a transition period (automated trucks for point to point over the road, then to local delivery stations, etc.), and then many, many trucking jobs probably will fade away. Drastically increasing safety and efficiency. There will probably be set backs along the way (safety mishaps, labor disputes, politics), but ultimate, the Luddites will lose and the progress will march on.



This becomes a 'public transit' system.  For freight.  Could also do it for humans.  Again, back to being a train...rail, or monorail, or shuttle, or same thing by another name.  We have a road infrastructure - now just have to get the human activated vehicles out of the loop so the automated stuff can use the infrastructure more efficiently.  All those old guys with self-image issues would no longer get to drive their Corvettes, etc without refit as 'modern' vehicles to fit into the automated world....

Wonder why we don't/won't?


I think it will take much longer than any of us would imagine to reach this point.  Would require large areas for parking at a hub area for people to park and get onto the central core transportation system...and acceptance by many....  Oh, wait...weren't we just talking about that for Cherry St, downtown, and Brookside...??   If I drive in to town from Bugtussle, need a place to get onto the "Loop"....

It's a great concept that may never actually happen.

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swake
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2015, 01:26:01 pm »


This becomes a 'public transit' system.  For freight.  Could also do it for humans.  Again, back to being a train...rail, or monorail, or shuttle, or same thing by another name.  We have a road infrastructure - now just have to get the human activated vehicles out of the loop so the automated stuff can use the infrastructure more efficiently.  All those old guys with self-image issues would no longer get to drive their Corvettes, etc without refit as 'modern' vehicles to fit into the automated world....

Wonder why we don't/won't?


I think it will take much longer than any of us would imagine to reach this point.  Would require large areas for parking at a hub area for people to park and get onto the central core transportation system...and acceptance by many....  Oh, wait...weren't we just talking about that for Cherry St, downtown, and Brookside...??   If I drive in to town from Bugtussle, need a place to get onto the "Loop"....

It's a great concept that may never actually happen.



There’s no waiting, these trucks are in use NOW. These new automated vehicles can easily intermix with non-automated vehicles, they don’t need to work in concert. These cars and trucks can “see” in 360 degrees around them watching all nearby vehicles at the same time. The computer knows the road conditions under it, the traffic conditions of the roads ahead, the speed and direction of all nearby cars and it is never distracted. It can read street signs and street signals and it always knows where it is and where it is going.  It doesn’t need light, it’s never blinded by the sun and it never gets a phone call.
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Conan71
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2015, 02:37:43 pm »

Quote
The Freightliner “Inspiration Truck” will be the first autonomous commercial truck to drive on American roads. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval and Daimler Chairman Wolfgang Bernhard just bolted on its Autonomous Vehicle license plate to prove it’s the real deal, and it’s already been spotted in action.

Freightliner Just Revealed The First Real Road-Legal Autonomous Big Rig

Big rigs might seem a little old-school in an era where everything travels by carrier drone– oh wait, it doesn’t. The American Trucking Associations says trucks moved 68.5 percent of all domestic freight tonnage in 2012 and Bernhard thinks current road freight volumes will triple by 2050.

In a Q&A session going on right now, Bernhard has explained that the Inspiration Truck will still have a driver, but that person’s purpose will be solely to monitor the truck’s systems and intervene in the event of a malfunction.

The truck requires no special hypothetical infrastructure, and it’s able to read road signs and traffic signals on its own.

Freightliner has not revealed anything about the truck’s power, efficiency, economics, or a long-term production scheme but the Inspiration Truck will allegedly be revealed in more detail May 5th at 11PM EST and demonstrated on the road the following day. The company’s Twitter page and #inspirationtruck has been blowing up with updates.

I think you might be jumping the gun a little.  This is still very much in a concept stage.
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AquaMan
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2015, 07:56:02 pm »

I could see eliminating Danica Patrick as well. Why use inneficient, slow thinking, humans in the Indy? Garbage men, bus drivers, Uber drivers. All unnecessary. Then the final solution....replicators and transponders.  Their takin' er jibs!

Still, five years is pretty quick.
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swake
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2015, 08:20:36 pm »

I didn't say all trucks will be there in five years, I said that you will see fully automated electric trucks within five years, as in, some trucks being like that. But what is the average lifespan of a big rig?

Within five years those kinds of trucks will be available, and within 10-12 years? Yeah, basically all delivery trucks/cars will be replaced and millions of taxi/uber drivers, delivery truck drivers, long haul drivers will be displaced.  All those jobs will be gone in a decade or a little more. 

The coming crisis is going to be what to do with people when a huge percentage of our jobs today will be automated. And I mean 40-50% or more.
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TheArtist
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2015, 07:52:21 am »

What do you do in a world where automation and technology allow things to cost less and less, and more and more people can have all they truly need and more.  Many are drowning in "stuff"? 

In the future the economy is going to be more "experience" driven.  You will be marketing and selling experiences, and the means to build and create those experiences.  Buying, selling and having more "things" will become less and less important. I am in retail, but I realize that I will need to transition more to selling an experience and entertainment (and building up my entertainment content/stories). Dining, movies, even cities themselves will compete in this new market.  The future is basically Disney World, and even our city will be competing in that vein with other cities.

(Barring WWIII and or the Rapture)
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Conan71
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2015, 09:44:19 am »

I didn't say all trucks will be there in five years, I said that you will see fully automated electric trucks within five years, as in, some trucks being like that. But what is the average lifespan of a big rig?

Within five years those kinds of trucks will be available, and within 10-12 years? Yeah, basically all delivery trucks/cars will be replaced and millions of taxi/uber drivers, delivery truck drivers, long haul drivers will be displaced.  All those jobs will be gone in a decade or a little more. 

The coming crisis is going to be what to do with people when a huge percentage of our jobs today will be automated. And I mean 40-50% or more.

According to Freighliner, the trucks still require an on-board operator even in automated mode, just like an air liner.  There may be short local routes where you could have driverless delivery but I seriously doubt long haul will ever operate without drivers.
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Townsend
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2015, 11:58:28 am »

He's probably for it:

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Breadburner
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2015, 05:07:17 pm »

I could see eliminating Danica Patrick as well. Why use inneficient, slow thinking, humans in the Indy? Garbage men, bus drivers, Uber drivers. All unnecessary. Then the final solution....replicators and transponders.  Their takin' er jibs!

Still, five years is pretty quick.

She should be....One of the worst drivers in the history of NAPCAR......
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AquaMan
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« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2015, 06:36:17 pm »

Some other predictions that didn't quite materialize......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurama_(New_York_World%27s_Fair)
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2492617/it-management/tech-predictions-gone-wrong.html

Bill Gates was probably right about the tablet but off by about a decade.
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« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2015, 08:04:34 am »

What do you do in a world where automation and technology allow things to cost less and less, and more and more people can have all they truly need and more.  Many are drowning in "stuff"? 

In the future the economy is going to be more "experience" driven.  You will be marketing and selling experiences, and the means to build and create those experiences.  Buying, selling and having more "things" will become less and less important. I am in retail, but I realize that I will need to transition more to selling an experience and entertainment (and building up my entertainment content/stories). Dining, movies, even cities themselves will compete in this new market.  The future is basically Disney World, and even our city will be competing in that vein with other cities.

(Barring WWIII and or the Rapture)

We'll get there,  someday...

"This is the 24th century. Material needs no longer exist.   The challenge ... is to improve yourself. To enrich yourself. Enjoy it."
 - Captain Jean-Luc Picard
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Townsend
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« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2015, 11:35:18 am »

We'll get there,  someday...

"This is the 24th century. Material needs no longer exist.   The challenge ... is to improve yourself. To enrich yourself. Enjoy it."
 - Captain Jean-Luc Picard

First we have to destroy civilization, develop warp tech and use it to send out a flair to a benevolent alien race who fixes all that is wrong with us.   (tea party, reality television, etc)
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