Tulsa metro population growth.

[Red Arrow]

I feel like Bixby is getting tapped out just due to traffic. Glenpool is close to the same. 

A current view from above would probably change your evaluation.  It seems like every time I go flying, there is a new chunk of ground being cleared and residential streets being prepared.

As long as Tulsa keeps trying to limit access from Bixby to Memorial, Glenpool to 75 and Jenks to Elwood and 75, eventually there will be retail to serve those southern areas.  I expect it to be along 151st street between Bixby and Glenpool.  It won't happen soon but it will happen.  There is already the Walmart anchored complex at 121st and 75.

[swake]

A current view from above would probably change your evaluation.  It seems like every time I go flying, there is a new chunk of ground being cleared and residential streets being prepared.

As long as Tulsa keeps trying to limit access from Bixby to Memorial, Glenpool to 75 and Jenks to Elwood and 75, eventually there will be retail to serve those southern areas.  I expect it to be along 151st street between Bixby and Glenpool.  It won't happen soon but it will happen.  There is already the Walmart anchored complex at 121st and 75.

The 111th and Elwood intersection in Jenks was just widened, it opened about two weeks ago. 121st will be widened from US-75 to Elwood starting next year.

The state has on it's schedule to start buying right of way from 131st to 151st to build a new interchange at 141st and US-75 in Glenpool, I would assume the new infrastructure bill will speed that up. Bixby has opened a large new school at Harvard and 151st. Glenpool as a new hospital and a shopping center under construction at 151st and US-75

In the last 10 years Glenpool grew by more than 25%, Bixby by 37% and Jenks by 53%. Combined they have almost 70k people now. It's not going to slow down. If the bridge to Yale had been built, the commercial corridor would probably have been Yale in Tulsa, now it's already building as 151st in Bixby/Glenpool.

[Red Arrow]

The 111th and Elwood intersection in Jenks was just widened, it opened about two weeks ago. 121st will be widened from US-75 to Elwood starting next year.

The state has on it's schedule to start buying right of way from 131st to 151st to build a new interchange at 141st and US-75 in Glenpool, I would assume the new infrastructure bill will speed that up. Bixby has opened a large new school at Harvard and 151st. Glenpool as a new hospital and a shopping center under construction at 151st and US-75

In the last 10 years Glenpool grew by more than 25%, Bixby by 37% and Jenks by 53%. Combined they have almost 70k people now. It's not going to slow down. If the bridge to Yale had been built, the commercial corridor would probably have been Yale in Tulsa, now it's already building as 151st in Bixby/Glenpool.

So maybe it's happening faster than I thought.  Sales tax will be good for Glenpool, Bixby and Jenks.  At least the rich people on Yale will be happy. Maybe the county assessor can raise their property values enough to make up for the loss of sales tax.

[swake]

Downtown is doing very well, the census track that is the entire area inside the IDL now has a population of 4.984.

[SXSW]

I’ll preface that to reach 10% growth in Tulsa city limits significant growth would need to happen in undeveloped areas in east and/or northwest Tulsa.  This hasn’t yet happened but I expect it to this decade.

[swake]

I’ll preface that to reach 10% growth in Tulsa city limits significant growth would need to happen in undeveloped areas in east and/or northwest Tulsa.  This hasn’t yet happened but I expect it to this decade.

Isn't far east Tulsa a rocky mess and undevelopable for most cost competitive suburban subdivisions? Northwest Tulsa could do well with very expensive homes in the hills, but the school situation needs to be solved before there's any large scale growth for homeowners needing public schools. The TPS schools for the area are pretty rough, that's why the Academy Central district was created when the Gilcrease Hills addition was built decades ago, but TPS absorbed that district long ago.

I still think for suburban growth within Tulsa there's some limited land in the Jenks district in southwest Tulsa and then land in the Tulsa fence line along US-75 in the Owasso district. Otherwise growth in Tulsa will have to be infill and densification, which are both good.

[brettakins]

 https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/oklahoma-follows-some-census-trends-more-than-others/article_29699e28-fc67-11eb-962c-bbc8e5aa2743.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

Although Oklahoma’s 5.5% population growth was below the nation’s 7.4%, it ranked near the median — 27th — and kept the state 28th overall, the same as in 2010.

Like the rest of the country, Oklahoma’s population is shifting from rural to urban, growing older and becoming more diverse.

While the number of Americans under 18 shrank by more than 1 million over the past decade, young Oklahomans increased by almost 20,000. That accounted for around 9% of the state’s total increase.

Nationally, almost 78% of the population is 18 or older. For Oklahoma the share is 76%.

The Tulsa and Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Areas gained a total of about 250,000 over the decade. That means the rest of the state combined lost 42,000.

Nationally, the continuing decline of the percentage of population that considers itself white attracted a lot of attention. The share of Americans listing their race as non-Hispanic or Latino white fell from 63.7% to 57.8%, and the actual number of white Americans dropped by about 5.1 million.

Oklahoma experienced an even steeper drop, from 68.7% to 60.8%, with a white population loss of about 165,000


Part of the shift is attributed to a change in the Census form that makes it easier for people to identify as “two or more races.” That number grew by 2.55 million nationally and 65,000 in Oklahoma.

But the biggest shift, in Oklahoma and elsewhere, has been an increasing Hispanic and Latino population. It grew 142,000 in Oklahoma from 2019, and now accounts for 12% of Oklahomans — the second-largest group after whites.

Oklahoma may not be known for its diversity — and Oklahomans may not think of themselves as particularly diverse — but it ranks 17th on the Census Bureau’s diversity index and third, behind Alaska and Hawaii, for what it calls diffusion.

Diffusion is measured by the percentage of the population not in the top three ethnic groups. Oklahoma’s top three are white (60.8%), Hispanic or Latino (12%) and two or more (9.4%), leaving nearly 18% who identify as something else.

[SXSW]

Isn't far east Tulsa a rocky mess and undevelopable for most cost competitive suburban subdivisions? Northwest Tulsa could do well with very expensive homes in the hills, but the school situation needs to be solved before there's any large scale growth for homeowners needing public schools. The TPS schools for the area are pretty rough, that's why the Academy Central district was created when the Gilcrease Hills addition was built decades ago, but TPS absorbed that district long ago.

I still think for suburban growth within Tulsa there's some limited land in the Jenks district in southwest Tulsa and then land in the Tulsa fence line along US-75 in the Owasso district. Otherwise growth in Tulsa will have to be infill and densification, which are both good.

It’s not as easy to build as Bixby but it hasn’t stopped all of the new development around 41st & 177th.  No reason to think that new residential development won’t infill further north to 31st which is within Tulsa city limits but in the BA school district.  TPS would likely have to add a new school once development crosses 31st around Lynn Lane Reservoir.  That would be dependent on if an EV plant lands at the Tesla site east of the Creek, that obviously would accelerate development in this area

[brettakins]

https://www.newson6.com/story/611bb12af3c48b0bf48ce388/new-census-data-shows-shift-in-tulsas-population-diversity-metropolitan-hits-1m-mark

TULSA, Oklahoma - Analysts are beginning to review data released from the 2020 census and there are some new trends for Tulsa and the surrounding areas. One of the biggest takeaways is the City of Tulsa’s population is now majority minority, meaning there are more people of color.
Melanie Poulter, Director of the Census Information Center of Eastern Oklahoma, said data also shows the Tulsa metropolitan area has hit the 1-million people mark, which is an 8% increase from 2010. The Tulsa metropolitan area is defined of seven counties; Tulsa, Rogers, Osage, Creek, Okmulgee, Wagoner and Pawnee.

Tulsa’s rise in minority population is a part of a trend across the United States. Overall, she said urban areas in Oklahoma are significantly growing.

“Our population, locally, statewide, is changing,” said Poulter. “We are becoming more diverse, overall we are becoming more urban.”

Around the metro, Poulter said Jenks has seen a 53% increase in population from 2010 to 2020. In that same time frame, she said Bixby has seen a 37% increase and Owasso has jumped 32%.

Poulter said the population of Collinsville jumped 41% in the last decade. Broken Arrow increased by 15%, Sapulpa by 7% and Tulsa and Sand Springs by 5%.

[LandArchPoke]

Just a couple interesting things... Wagoner and Rogers County have the highest median income's in the MSA both over $62,000 and lowest levels of poverty at about 10% and 8%. Did surprise me to see incomes that high. I do find it interesting that our high school graduation rate in Tulsa County is above the national average, but we are still lagging in bachelor's degrees - reasons why have been discussed plenty of times on here by everyone.

MSA (if no additional counties are added): 1,015,331
MSA + Washington, Mayes, & Muskogee County: 1,173,171
Add in Cherokee County: 1,220,249
Add in Delaware County (Grand Lake): 1,260,646
Add in Payne County: 1,342,292

(note: not saying any of those will be added, just as a reference to surrounding counties to the MSA and our greater regional area that have big ties to Tulsa - OSU, NSU, Mid-America, Grand Lake, etc.)

Given the trends of rural counties losing population all over the US, it's interesting to note that Cherokee and Delaware Counties grew by about 4.5% each from the last Census. I'm sure NSU helped a bit to drive Cherokee county growth but I bet the tribal facility growth has been a huge part to population growth there too.

Tulsa County manufacturing still dwarfs Oklahoma County (as of 2012 most recent) - 18.7 million to 7.6 million.

Tulsa County commutes are also amongst the shortest I can find (even in other states for a principal county of an MSA) at around 18 minutes, Oklahoma County is over 21, US average is 27, and most of our suburban counties are over 20-25 minutes.

[Red Arrow]

Tulsa County commutes are also amongst the shortest I can find (even in other states for a principal county of an MSA) at around 18 minutes, Oklahoma County is over 21 and most of our suburban counties are over 20-25 minutes.

As long as you go to work at 6AM and leave before 4PM.

[LandArchPoke]

As long as you go to work at 6AM and leave before 4PM.

Depends where you live and what corridors you take.

My commute to my office (if I ever even go to it anymore) is about 10 minutes. Given the density in Midtown, there's a large population who is very close to downtown offices - which isn't as common in other cities Tulsa's size. OKC for example, Mesta Park and that area is maybe 1/3 the size of Midtown - OKC's downtown has a large long commuter population. I believe from the ramp entry/exit traffic counts I've research less than half the traffic that enters downtown come from the IDL, something I need to go back and look at again sometime.

[LandArchPoke]

Another interesting note that was in the TulsaWorld as well. Last year the MSA added 12,000 people (about the size of Glenpool). That's about a 1.2% growth rate so over 10 years would put us at 14.4% growth between now and next census if that pattern sticks. That would mean in the neighborhood of 150,000 new residents in the next 10 years - a bit more than adding a new Broken Arrow to the MSA.

[Red Arrow]

Depends where you live and what corridors you take.

Memorial (south of the turnpike) and 169.

[brettakins]

https://ktul.com/news/local/tulsa-becomes-majority-minority-city

TULSA, Okla. —

Census data shows Tulsa is tied with Indianapolis as the fastest-diversifying big city in the nation.

Over the past decade, data shows the number of white Tulsans dropped from about 58% to 49%.

Demographics for Tulsa in 2010. (Data: U.S. Census Bureau)

More than half of Tulsans are people of color, which means Tulsa is now a majority-minority city.