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Originally posted by Conan71
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Originally posted by Gold
Great points.
I suspect a lot of it isn't that difficult. Don't panic and hide your money under your bed. Call out the idiot news organizations running stories about the depression -- truth be told, the economy is so different now, it's not easy to compare at all.
The hard part is the future regulation and figuring out who to hold accountable for the massive writeoffs that are to follow. Hopefully, the body politic learned enough this time around to make that a non-partisan issue.
Even though I suspect you and I differ on some core political issues, we are in agreement on many other things.
The lessons to be learned are vast and the fall-out will continue, unfortunately, for decades I'm afraid.
Fortunately, I've lost nothing in this debacle as I've sold nothing.
Another aspect which happened in the last year was unprecidented profiteering in oil and just about all other commodities in the last year. I'm not talking the cost of trading paper, I'm talking the real street cost of hard commodities. When the price and copper and steel goes up- there is little which is not impacted. Automotive, construction, oil and gas, research, medical, on and on and on...
For instance, a certain type of steel-fabricated pressure vessel which cost $95,000 eight months ago now costs $115,000 from the same manufacturer. That same vessel was in the neighborhood of $75K five years ago. Even though raw steel prices are back down, it's still not trickling into real-world consumption yet.
I think it depends on what you define core political issues as.
I think there is plenty of room for bipartisan agreement on fiscal and energy policy. For example, there is literally only one way to solve the energy issue, with lots of little sub-parts that confuse the whole discussion; renewables aren't anywhere near being close to what some paint them to be and drilling off shore isn't going to make that big of a dent (though we should still do it). Same thing with fiscal policy: we need more oversight of loans, etc. -- if a certain bank is "too big to fail," then it is probably also "too big not to be regulated."
I'd rather our government be pragmatic about these issues than waste time on distractions like whether Elian Gonzalez is in the right place or whether it approves of Florida's policy on end of life care. We elect these peoples to help with our problems -- notbattle some moralistic crusade.
Interesting point on the price of stuff going up, but some raw material costs going down. (Or is the dollar bouncing back while everyone else tanks?) My wife hired a cleaning lady in the middle of the summer. She explained that she needed to charge $10 more than she did the friend who sent her to us because the cost of fuel has gone up. It made me wonder when I saw oil fall 50% off the high: do we get to pay $10 less now? (Silly, but bare with me.)
A lot of places that had to raise prices when things got expensive last year (and the dollar tanked). Depending on what market you are looking at, some may not lower prices until they have to out of competition, and in some really specialized markets like the widget you explain, I suspect they'll try to rake in the profits while they can.
There are probably some interesting opportunities with all this volatility for an investor much wiser than myself or Boone Pickens. [
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