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Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 19, 2008, 09:36:32 am Hillary has closed a 14 point lead nationally by Obama to a three point lead, within the margin of error.
I just know that all you Hillary-haters will just come back at me and denounce her as the anti-Christ. I tried to talk about momentum in an earlier thread and many of you disagreed. This story does prove what I was saying... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080319/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc Obama's lead over Clinton narrows: Reuters poll WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big national lead over Hillary Clinton has all but evaporated in the U.S. presidential race, and both Democrats trail Republican John McCain, according a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. The poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14 point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories. Illinois Sen. Obama, who would be America's first black president, has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from New York Sen. Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher. The poll showed Arizona Sen. McCain, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, is benefiting from the lengthy campaign battle between Obama and Clinton, who are now battling to win Pennsylvania on April 22. McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll. That is a sharp turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll from last month, which showed in a head-to-head matchup that Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 40 percent. "The last couple of weeks have taken a toll on Obama and in a general election match-up, on both Democrats," said pollster John Zogby. Matched up against Clinton, McCain leads 48 percent to 40 percent, narrower than his 50 to 38 percent advantage over her in February. "It's not surprising to me that McCain's on top because there is disarray and confusion on the Democratic side," Zogby said Obama gave a speech on Tuesday rebuking his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, for sermons sometimes laced with inflammatory tirades but said he could not disown him and it was time for Americans to bind the country's racial wounds. The poll showed Obama continues to have strong support from the African-American community but that he is experiencing some slippage among moderates and independents. Among independents, McCain led for the first time in the poll, 46 percent to 36 percent over Obama. He was behind McCain by 21 percent among white voters. Zogby attributed this to a combination of the fallout from Clinton's victory in Ohio earlier this month and the controversy over Wright's sermons. "And, just the closer he gets to the nomination, the tougher questions whites ask about an African-American candidate," Zogby said. The March 13-14 poll surveyed 525 likely Democratic primary voters for the matchup between Clinton and Obama. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. For the matchup between McCain and his Democratic rivals, 1004 likely voters were surveyed. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: sgrizzle on March 19, 2008, 10:26:16 am Things rolling downhill always gain momentum. [:D]
(http://www.caerdroia.org/blog/clinton%20can%20has%20president.jpeg) Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: inteller on March 19, 2008, 10:34:02 am I think McCain is going to peel off enough moderate democrats that he can take this one. I hate him on Iraq and immigration, but he is better than the dems on everything else.
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: cannon_fodder on March 19, 2008, 10:48:02 am Surely Obama is at the low point with this whole "my minister is a racist" thing. Hillary should win Penn and will claim the momentum from there.
However, the sad fact of the matter is she was the nominee back in January, hell when the campaigning kicked off she had a 33 point lead. It was her's to lose and she has. It is statistically impossible for her to get more popular votes or pledged delegates than Obama unless Obama does something amazingly stupid. There will be swings back and forth from now on I'm sure, +/- 10 points either way would not surprise me. But all that really matters is the delegate and votes int he pocket, and that she is unlikely to win. And as of right now, McCain beats them both anyway (kind of surprises me and it is damn close). Anyway... popular opinion doesn't REALLY matter in the game at this point. Maneuvering for delegates and popular votes is what counts in the bank. With Florida and Michigan pretty much off the table, Obama wins both. The super delegates at the convention decide the outcome. This will continue to be ugly. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 11:06:17 am Timing is everything...don't go judging what's gonna happen based on one week at a time polling. Especially if you live in repugnant ****ry like Okiehoma. Barack has this thing right where he wants it....and after this week, the superdeli count will be his ace in her hole.
Penn don't matter despite Obama's gap closing. I love the fact McBush is staying close. Soon, he will be diminished by Obama's stature as a true leader based on his ability to rally the masses.... You who pay attention to yak radio and Faux news will have a come to Jeeezus moment come November. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 19, 2008, 11:13:54 am You are right, RM, Hillary has regained some ground after her nose dive back in February. I imagine dumping her campaign manager and throwing the kitchen sink at Obama paid off somewhat. Still, CF is right. Statistically, there is no way for her to win. Obama is ahead by almost 150 delegates. Intrade still has Obama ahead by almost 3 to 1. At this point, it is inevitable that he will get the nomination, unless a huge number of superdelegates choose to invalidate the pledged delegate count.
Hillary has every right to hang in there, and I don't fault her for doing so. But at this point I am really ready to move on--let's get to McCain. IMO, either one of them will have an easy time beating McCain (who, despite his assertions that he has the foreign policy experience, doesn't seem to know whether Iran is Shiite or Sunni). Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 11:22:37 am But McBush has Lindsey Graham and Joe Liarman to back him up, whisper in his good ear, and keep him straight about the Taliban. Right...
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 19, 2008, 11:30:51 am Neither Clinton nor Obama can accumulate enough pledged delegates to lock up the nomination. We will have to use the mechanism the party planned for this eventuality -- super delegates who will decide our next leader before the convention.
Both Clinton and Obama have stated that they will ask their supporters to support the party's nominee. I believe it will be absolutely necessary to put the loser on the ticket as a vice-president. It's more of a gamble that I like but not to do so will render great damage to our prospets in November. My Partner, who has supported Clinton longer than I have, has announced that he will vote for Nadar/Gonzales should Obama win. If he sees Obama choose Clinton as a running mate he would be appeased and vote Democrat. The same dynamic works vice versa. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 11:39:36 am quote: So, looks like your partner is a genius? Billary is off the ticket. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 19, 2008, 11:46:02 am Obama is getting awful close to being damaged goods but I still believe the smart move for Clinton will be to name Obama as her running mate. She has all but promised and he has not said "no."
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 11:50:16 am I will point this out again. The big democratic leadership now understands the importance of having Obama head the ticket without Billary in order to secure the neccesary congressional and Senate seats to reclaim our country.
It's all about the black vote. Tough to grasp for those old red state bumpkins. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 19, 2008, 11:57:44 am Blacks are 10 percent of our population. Latinos are the largest minority in the United States.
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 01:01:15 pm Swing votes.....get it?....they make it majority rule. They don't vote, Repugnants hold onto power. Their numbers matter.....
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 19, 2008, 01:34:58 pm quote: Smart move for the party would be for Hillary's hit team to lay off Obama before McCain winds up with a 20% gap over a combined ticket of Hillary/Obama or vice versa. There's a whole lot of acrimony building, and I don't see these two being able to have any credibility if they team up. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 01:41:07 pm HUH!? 20%? You really need to get out of Oklahoma every now and then.....[}:)]
McBush will be lucky to find a decent running mate. Maybe Dan Quayle will be available..... Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 19, 2008, 01:42:00 pm I believe Hillary can still win the popular vote, but probably not get the delegate lead. Obama is 700,000 votes ahead without Michigan and Florida voting, but if the previous votes were counted he will only be 80,000 votes ahead. She is ahead by double digit points in Pennsyvania which means that she will beat Obama by 300 to 400 thousand (if the vote were held today).
If Florida and Michigan revote, I expect her to win Florida handily and be very competitive in Michigan. If she has the most popular votes, it will be hard for a superdelegate to ignore that. Superdelegates will decide this race and I believe she has always been ahead in superdelegates. What would you do if you were an Oklahoma delegate? The fact that she has the most votes nationally and she carried your district and state will be important factors. This race is long from over and she is doing quite well now. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 19, 2008, 01:47:22 pm RM....you are a wolf in sheeps clothing!
"Now, none of this would matter much if these had been the utterances of a small-time Clinton campaign worker. But Ferraro has a legacy in Democratic politics. Her remarks, coupled with those of former President Clinton comparing Obama's win in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's victory there in 1984, reveal a reckless disregard for blacks in the higher echelons of the Democratic Party. Yes, it'll all be forgotten if Obama wins the nomination. But it'll fester if he doesn't. Nor should Republicans gloat too much. Ferraro's implicit leveraging of white resentment over affirmative action was essentially an ad-hoc version of Richard Nixon's infamous "Southern strategy." And what happens if black voters do become disaffected with the Democratic Party? Because the GOP isn't likely to embrace them, those voters would probably abstain from the process. And as even someone with the slightest knowledge of history should know, having large numbers of African Americans feeling alienated from the political system and with no place to turn isn't just bad for blacks but for the entire body politic. Now is as good a time as any for Hillary Clinton's supporters to realize that there are more important things than winning." http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-oe-rodriguez17mar17,1,7340434.column Any good democrat can see the fallacy of supporting Billary.... Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: rwarn17588 on March 19, 2008, 03:01:25 pm RM, quit bringing up Michigan's vote totals. Obama wasn't EVEN ON THE BALLOT.
It's a wholly unfair to put those vote totals from that state into Hillary's totals. The total number of votes that Obama is ahead is over 800,000, by the way. And I wouldn't hold your breath for a Florida or Michigan revote. Florida revote is dead, and Michigan revote is on life support. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 19, 2008, 05:34:37 pm If the national democratic party doesn't step in and either count the Michigan and Florida votes or organize a re-vote, the democrats will lose in November. Period.
These are two very swing states and the people deserve to have their results count. Not seating their delegations and saying their votes don't count will be a slap in their face. Obama's campaign knows that Hillary did and will again do quite well in both states and they have made it almost impossible for any positive outcome for Florida and Michigan democrats. They, together with Howard Dean and the democratic national committee are now obstructionists to democracy. Every vote should count and they are saying they shouldn't because it doesn't benefit their motives. The national party drew a line in the sand, the Obama camp is trenching it deeper and now it will trip up the voters going to the polls. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 19, 2008, 08:04:41 pm RM, I certainly understand the politics behind Clinton's desire for a revote. Yet, how do you reconcile these two statements:
Back when the other candidates removed their names from the ballot, Clinton, in deciding not to remove her's said, "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," Now, Clinton says "When others made the decision to remove their names from the ballot, I didn't because I believed your voices and your votes should count." Goodness, talk about trying to maneuver to "benefit their motives" The push to have a revote reminds me of my kids, when I tell them if they don't eat any vegetables, they don't get any dessert. Then after I take their plate away (with the vegetables), and its dessert time, suddenly they are willing to eat those vegetables I already threw out. Obama has raised some very legitimate concerns about a revote in Michigan. Michigan is an open primary. Clinton's plan will bar any democrat that voted for a republican to participate in a revote. Even ignoring the logistics (how would they check that), how is that fair? How many democrats would have voted in the democratic primary, had they thought their vote would count? If Clinton really wants Michigan's voices to be heard, why not allow all of the voices that could have voted participated in the revote? How many republicans (who were supporting Obama in greater numbers until Rush Limbaugh told them to vote for Clinton) would have voted for Obama? By the way, Michigan doesn't list party affiliation when registering, so how are they going to tell who is a democrat? And aren't you a little uncomfortable with a privately financed election? Yes, it would be nice for them to figure out a plan that was fair to all involved (not just Clinton supporters). But to create some kind of scare is silly. FYI, a SurveyUsa poll had Obama beating McCain with 280 delegates to 258 without winning Florida. Swing states are a moving target. Other states--Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and even Oregon are considered swing states. I really like the fact that Obama doesn't put all of his eggs in a few "big state" baskets. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 19, 2008, 08:45:30 pm quote: That's what I've been trying to get across in the other thread to HT. Unfortunately, the GOP has done a poor job of reaching out to the black voters, so I think you are right. Many would forgo voting all together. For some reason the Clintons are mis-calculating that they would have the same voter base they enjoyed with blacks in '92 and '96. Now that there is a black candidate and it's this close, if they go back, re-do Florida and Michigan or the superdelegates go to Hillary, there goes five to ten million Democrat votes who will just stay home, because they think their guy got hood-winked. If the black vote stays home in a state like Ohio which has been close the last couple of elections, that could be pivotal come November. That's the beauty of this for McCain. All he's got to do is sit back and watch the Democrats implode for the next five months. Personally, I'm already sick of this field of candidates, by the time August rolls around it will have been a year and about nine months of campaigns. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 19, 2008, 10:37:37 pm Those are considerable concerns about Michigan re-votes, but the real issue is that Obama was not on the ballot and most of his supporters crossed over and voted for McCain. I believe that was way more prevalent than republicans voting for Hillary because of Rush's comments.
I don't care how they voted...if they only let democrats who voted for democrats re-vote or let everybody re-vote. It doesn't matter to me. I just think that something has to be done to seat a Michigan delegation. To tell the Michigan democrats that their votes don't count because their state party couldn't agree with their national party on what day to hold a primary election is crazy. The Michigan and Florida voters will not forgive the democrats easily and the effects will not only elect McCain, but possibly effect every other race in both states. Hillary wants a re-vote and Obama doesn't. This is one time when the cnadidates should agree. You can't disenfranchise two whole states of voters. Obama is going to have more delegates no matter what happens, but is playing the role of obstructionist to doing what is right for the party. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 20, 2008, 06:52:44 am http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-ymHdbd_tU&NR=1
The Angry John McCain Song Senator McNuts will be beat. Besides, who is his running mate? I want to know that just in case one day he spins outa control http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video/main500251.shtml?id=3948673n?source=search_video .....he may become known as the gaffer. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/18/a_mccain_gaffe_in_jordan_1.html?hpid=topnews The election belongs to the democrats. The republican circus is a side show with Hannity and Rush playing calliope. The candidate we deserve... http://pabloonpolitics.com/obama_speech.htm Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 20, 2008, 07:19:29 am Clinton takes lead over Obama in Gallup poll
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080320/ts_nm/usa_politics_gallup_dc WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has moved into a significant lead over Barack Obama for the first time in weeks in the race for the party nomination, according to a Gallup poll. The March 14-18 national survey of 1,209 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters gave Clinton, a New York senator, a 49 percent to 42 percent edge over Obama, an Illinois senator. The poll has an error margin of 3 percentage points. Gallup said it was the first statistically significant lead for Clinton since a tracking poll conducted February 7-9, just after the Super Tuesday primaries. The two candidates had largely been locked in a statistical tie since then, with Obama last holding a lead over Clinton in a March 11-13 poll. Gallup said polling data also showed presumptive Republican nominee John McCain leading Obama 47 percent to 43 percent in 4,367 registered voters' preferences for the general election. The general election survey has an error margin of 2 percentage points. The Arizona senator also edged Clinton 48 percent to 45 percent but Gallup said the lead was not statistically significant. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 20, 2008, 07:51:07 am Of course, that is just one poll. On average, Obama is ahead by 3 points. Rasmussen, as of just yesterday, has Obama ahead by 5%. Interestingly, it looked at the effects of Rev. Wright and Obama's subsequent speech.
The truth is, whatever the polls say, this race is just about over. The ability for Clinton to get the nomination is almost negligible. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/us/politics/20memo.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin In truth, it really harms the democratic party at this point for her to keep attacking Obama. I agree with Hometown--it would be nice if Obama offered her the Vice Presidency. But I doubt she would take it. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 20, 2008, 09:33:19 am Hillary should not get out.
Obama does not have enough delegates to assure the nomination. There are still key states yet to vote and Hillary is ahead in the polling in almost all of them. By Memorial Day I think she is going to be ahead in the national polls and ahead in the popular vote. If you ignore Florida and Michigan, Obama is right now barely ahead in popular vote 49% to 47%. This race is incredibly close and Hillary is catching up fast. Millions and millions of democrats are yet to vote. All you Obama supporters just want Hillary to give up before the rest of America has a chance to really get to know your candidate. That is just unrealistic. Obama has not been able to close out this race and now that people are beginning to take a hard look at him, he had better get his act together. If not, he will be the one that will be forced to withdraw. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: rwarn17588 on March 20, 2008, 10:15:14 am It seems apparent to me that Obama already HAS his act together.
He's weathered the worst time since his campaign began, and his speech Tuesday has helped him recover immensely. Everyone's talking about it in positive terms except for the lizardbrains, and even some of them praised it. If you want to blame anyone for Florida and Michigan delegates not being seated, blame the stupidity of those states' party leadership. They knew the rules, but decided to play chicken and break them anyway. There shouldn't be any whining if you break the rules and consequences occur. Besides, RM, you know as well as I do that those delegates eventually will be seated at the convention. They'll probably split 'em 50/50 and be done with it, like the GOP did when one of the states broke the rules in a similar fashion. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 20, 2008, 10:19:20 am It's true that more people will begin to learn about Obama in the months ahead, just as they learn more about Clinton, at least when she finally releases their tax records. It will be interesting to see how they amassed as much as 50 million dollars since they left the White house.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Story?id=4421457&page=2 I think people are just now starting to see the role she played on Walmart's board, something that hasn't really been scrutinized before. And now that we finally see records of her role in the White House, I hope she is prepared for the onslaught of accusation that will come with that. And I don't think the suspicion around the Clinton Library donations will go away any time soon. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/14/AR2007121402124_pf.html And that's even before we start to look back at some of the previous issues that the republicans won't let go. The truth is, whomever is the the candidate the republicans are going to throw dirt at them. I really see no reason to believe that Clinton will do any better at diffusing the attacks then Obama. Tuesday's speech was an excellent example of that. Obama has accusations thrown at him, and he takes it as an opportunity to educate people, and unify the country. When has Clinton come even close to doing something like that? Quite frankly, I don't think she ever did a very good job at diffusing attacks. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: rwarn17588 on March 20, 2008, 10:30:51 am ^ +1
Plus the fact that Hillary's got negative ratings in the mid- to high 40s. Anyone who's harping about electability shouldn't be someone who turns off nearly half the voters. Maybe it's unfair that her negative ratings are so high. But they are, and they've been basically unchanged for a year, despite all her campaigning. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 20, 2008, 10:33:36 am quote: Thing is though, everyone knows the Clintons have skeletons in the closet, they know Hillary is divisive, but for the most part they don't seem to care. The Clintons just keep winning. Does anyone know of an election either Clinton has ever lost? In your comment about the GOP throwing dirt at the Dem candidates, certainly you aren't omitting the fact that Democrats are throwing dirt at McCain, right? At this point, I'd be willing to bet 75% or better of the mud directed at Obama is coming from the Clinton camp. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 20, 2008, 10:44:22 am Conan, I have no doubt that democrats will throw dirt, too. It is politics after all.
As for winning all elections, I am a fan of Bill Clintons, but in fact, Bill Clinton never won his presidency by a majority of Americans. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: rwarn17588 on March 20, 2008, 10:45:42 am <conan wrote:
Does anyone know of an election either Clinton has ever lost? <end clip> Bill Clinton lost his race for U.S. House of Representatives in 1974, and he also lost his re-election campaign for Arkansas governor in 1980. So, yes, he/they have been beaten before. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: MichaelBates on March 20, 2008, 10:56:12 am quote: The GOP simply had different consequences for states that allocated delegates before February. All of those states -- New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida -- lost half of their national convention delegates. (Iowa hasn't actually allocated any delegates yet.) The states still followed their own rules for allocating the remaining delegates. rwarn's right -- if you know the rules and you violate them anyway, you pay the consequences. The Oklahoma legislature looked at a January primary, but backed off because leaders of both parties didn't want to lose national convention delegates. We weren't the only state to make that kind of choice. The states that followed the rules ought to shut down any attempt to seat delegates from rule-breaking states. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 20, 2008, 11:15:21 am The voters in Michigan didn't disobey the rules...a handle of party leaders did.
The national committee wanted to totally control the timing of primaries so they could direct the election and related income. The state committee also did what they thought would benefit them, also party insiders. The voters had no say, no power to do anything more than to go to the polls with a hope that their actions mattered. If they lose that hope and tell them that their votes do not count, you will lose them in November. This is a pissing contest between a handful of insiders trying to run elections...insiders that the actual electorate of Michigan never voted for. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: mr.jaynes on March 20, 2008, 11:27:55 am quote: I gotta say it: she looks just like Amy Poehler doing a spot-on impersonation-of her, no less-on SNL. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: rwarn17588 on March 20, 2008, 12:15:49 pm <RM wrote:
The voters in Michigan didn't disobey the rules...a handle of party leaders did. <end clip> Then fire the party leaders in Michigan. Duh. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: guido911 on March 20, 2008, 12:56:39 pm Not so much off topic, but 1 in 5 Pennsylvania dems will vote for McCain if their dem candidate does not get the nomination:
http://pawatercooler.com/?p=3655 Not sure if it is Sore Loserman syndrome or that real animosity has resulted from the primary that will effect how people will vote in the general. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 20, 2008, 01:04:05 pm quote: The independent voters in Oklahoma didn't disobey the rules either... their party leaders decided that Oklahoma would be a closed primary. http://www.ok.gov/~elections/voterreg.html quote: When I went to my polling place to vote, I saw a twenty-something aged voter turned away. That voter was a registered independent. ... if Oklahoma had an open primary, Obama would likely have funnelled more resources into this state. if Oklahoma had an open primary, the state might have received more press coverage and resulted in a tighter race. So, now the Clinton campaign is blowing smoke indicating that a re-do of the Michigan primary isn't going to be good enough for them.... they need a "closed" primary despite the FACT that the original Michigan contest was an "open" primary... That, my friend, is changing the rules in the middle....... no wait... changing the rules at the very end in a close contest. It also violates one of my central tenets... "stupidity should never be rewarded." Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: inteller on March 20, 2008, 01:12:00 pm quote: the dems are cooked. but the repubs aren't much better. I think Bloomberg will slip in with a unity ticket after the conventions and ride a 3 month wave of popularity and take this thing. Look at how people have been peaking and waning....about 3 months. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 20, 2008, 02:00:51 pm quote: Not so simple. Did you vote for any of your party officials? Did you help elect your precinct chair? Your county Chair? Your congressional district Chair? Your state chair? For almost every person you know, the answer is no. How do they fire them if they don't attend precinct/county/state party meetings? Everyone shouldn't be expected to attend all those meetings, but I expect every American who are able to vote for President. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 20, 2008, 03:18:12 pm These two have been running for President for more than six months now (probably more like twelve or more). Hillary was ahead for the longest time and then Obama was ahead. Now Hillary has caught up and if you believe Gallup Poll, is back ahead.
Obama was only ahead for six weeks. It just seemed like a lot because it is so fresh in our memories. After Pennsylvania votes, Hillary will be ahead to stay on every national poll. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 20, 2008, 03:39:15 pm Goodness, RM, that sounds desparate--Clinton has been ahead longer, therefore she's more deserving? The first election which Obama won was on January 3. Within a month, Obama erased a double digit lead by Clinton and held that until one poll yesterday had him down by 5% (outside the 3% margin of error, but well within the 8% margin of refused/undecided). They may have been campaigning for 6 months, but no one was really paying attention until January.
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 20, 2008, 04:54:51 pm per usual... RM spinning for hillary... worthy of that snake-oil salesman, James Carville...
RM-- "These two have been running for President for more than six months now (probably more like twelve or more). Hillary was ahead for the longest time..." Sorry, but HC had more name recognition than Obama and was presenting herself as the presumptive nominee... we have these things called primaries and caucuses, when people actually vote... so, when voters get to know Barack Obama, HC's twenty point leads mysteriously evaporate... So no... it doesn't matter what you did in the preseason before any of the games "counted." Hillary and Co. is trying to STEAL a nomination process that has largely been settled. No matter what your spin goes with (even if she wins the popular vote), this is about 50 separate elections, not a nationwide primary (plus Guam, PR, etc). Those are the rules. They were the rules last year, and they are the rules this year. HC is trying to weasel her way into the nomination "by any means necessary." She will not win the delegate count. She needed to win Texas and Ohio by 20% each to dent Obama's lead... she didn't. http://hillaryclinton.wordpress.com/2008/03/ It took me 6 years of Bill to start feeling "Clinton fatigue".... it's only taken me the last 6 weeks of Hillary's "kitchen sink" strategy for me to never want to vote for a Clinton again.... Feb. 21.... Hillary Clinton tells America how "honored" she is to be on the same stage as Barack Obama at the end of their televised debate. Feb. 23.... “Shame on you, Barack Obama, meet me in Ohio, and let’s have a debate about your tactics and your behavior in this campaign.” “Enough with the speeches and the big rallies and then using tactics right out of Karl Rove’s playbook" Feb. 24.... “Now, I could stand up here and say, ‘Let’s just get everybody together. Let’s get unified. The sky will open. The light will come down. Celestial choirs will be singing, and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect.” ----- I want to vote for a principled statesman (or stateswoman)... not a condescending, two-faced, finger-in-the-wind poll driven, polarizing candidate like Hillary Clinton.... I don't want to choose between Hillary and her guaranteed Republican house and senate versus McCain, who will likely have a Dem house and senate... Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 20, 2008, 07:50:44 pm Yeh, keep it up RM! You're making this devil look good.....
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 21, 2008, 07:10:04 am NM Gov. Bill Richardson endorsing Obama ...
There goes the moe...... Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 21, 2008, 07:37:53 am quote: That is sad. Now he can't be Hillary's Vice President. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 21, 2008, 07:40:32 am Did you see today's polling? Hillary is still ahead by 16 points in Pennsylvania and is 28 points ahead in West Virginia.
Will Obama win any of the remaining states? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 21, 2008, 09:28:06 am Even assuming you look at the popular vote instead of the pledged delegates (even though everyone knows that candidates are chosen based on delegates, not popular vote), Clinton cannot win absent some miracle. She's down by 700,000 votes. Even if she wins Pennsylvania by 20%, which is extremely unlikely (she only won Ohio by 10%), she will still be down by 300,000. She is not likely to win Oregon or North Carolina, which means she would have to win the remaining states by over 60%. That isn't going to happen.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9147.html Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 21, 2008, 09:38:06 am Your math assumes that no votes are counted in Florida or Michigan. Your math also assumes that Obama wins two key states. Have you seen recent polling?
Obama has been losing points for a week against both Hillary and McCain and no one knows how far he could drop. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 21, 2008, 09:44:46 am Even if he loses all remaining states, Clinton would have to win on average by 56% to 57%. She's only done that in Ohio, her home state of Arkansas & New York, and the NY suburb of Rhode Island. It's not going to happen. Especially now that she's basically tapped out of money ($3 million left), while Obama has 30 million to spend. Today's endorsement by Richards will be followed by a trend as more and more recognize the inevitable.
Polls fluctuate daily, and while Clinton went up some after her nose dive, that's just a blip. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 21, 2008, 10:48:56 am When they figure out the Clintonites were behind the state department passport breach, when they figure out Bill Richardson will be Obama's running mate, and when that picture of Rev Wright attending to Bill Cliton the day he admitted indiscretion in the White House I think the poll numbers will shift significantly.
Oh, and once everyone can see what a nut case McBush is, there will be no doubt the country has made a change of course. Where is McCaints psychological profile? We should have demanded one on Dumbya in '99. Then we'd have known the potential damage a dry drunk could do to this nation. McCrazy spent too much time as a POW. Look into those psychological profiles. Damn scary. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 21, 2008, 11:05:32 am quote: Thanks for the reminder. I've got to drag my credit card out once again. I encourage everyone to donate to the Clinton campaign. Even small amounts help. hillaryclinton.com Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 21, 2008, 11:55:36 am Save your money. What I said after Wisconsin....It's ova for Hildog and the Clintonites.....
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 21, 2008, 01:35:47 pm Like I said, the slight rise in the poll was just a blip. Gallup, the only poll to have Clinton ahead, now has them in a dead heat.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105559/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Now-47-Obamas-45.aspx Obama's ability to turn a negative into a positive within a few days shows that he is the stronger candidate. That, coupled with the fact that the same poll shows that only 44% of Americans find Clinton honest & trustworthy, compared to Obama's 63%. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: cannon_fodder on March 21, 2008, 01:50:03 pm quote: The media needs something to hype. The war in Iraq has calmed down and is status quo operations. Not enough Jews are killing Palestinians or the other way around. The economic problems have yet to effect most Americans. Global warming is taking a few years off. And no new disease has come out that is surely going to kill us all this year. If they ran with the "slim to no chance of winning" story on Clinton they would be out of print material. [edit] Forgot the link:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html [/edit] Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 21, 2008, 02:46:05 pm quote: Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 21, 2008, 04:52:32 pm quote: Please try and discuss these politicians with a little respect, FOTD. Your attacks have no place on this forum. Please. Take it to the alley. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 21, 2008, 08:39:24 pm McCain is definitely wobbly.....the news media is reluctant to discuss what kind of candidate psychological damage could spill over and hurt our nation. They are just as reluctant to tell you RM that no matter what Hillary wants mathematically they is toast. She and Bill have serious issues as well seeping with cocksureness, self centerness, and vaingloriness while hurting those they claim they wish to represent.
Isn't that psychological questioning essentially what is going on with the attacks on Obama for attending Jerimiah Wrights' sermons? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 22, 2008, 08:16:45 am I honestly believe all Democrats involved in these discussions are very sincere and believe their candidate offers the best shot at the White House.
Obama's recent speech on race appealed to some elites and was lost on the masses. I don't think he gave us the simple answer we needed to kill the issue. I also wonder how his connection to anti-Semitic elements is going to play out with Jewish folks, who are very important to the party. I've also heard talking heads hint that we are going to hear stories about connections to Chicago mob through Chicago politics. We Democrats have some bumpy roads ahead of us. I don't think Obama planned on getting this far. I don't think he is a fighter. I don't think he is prepared. There are of course his young supporters. I'm reminded of John Dean’s young supporters and how they were a complete disappointment in the general election. There aren't many surprises left with Ms. Clinton. She has lived her life in public for many years now. She clearly has the fire in the belly and has lived her life for this moment for many years now. She is the best prepared to slug it out with the right wing hate machine this November. She is going to get crummy press for the next few weeks because of the often cited media bias for Obama. Then she will win big time in Pennsylvania and the media will rush in to join the parade. I still expect to see her win and offer Obama the vice-presidency because she will have to in order to save the party. In all honesty I don't get Obama. I don't see special. I see lackluster and unprepared and arrogant. Once again, I’ll vote for our party’s candidate, but I have to say, I have not heard those words from one Obama supporter. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 22, 2008, 09:40:38 am Hometown, I'll vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination, but she won't. Obama this last week showed what it takes to be a true leader. You don't duck and hide--you confront. His speech was approved by 70% of the population--both democrats and republicans. Of course, Fox news & the extremists will contine to make a big deal about it. But the people who listen to them won't vote for any democrat.
I find it amazing that people keep saying Hillary has been "fully vetted." Just this week, we find out that her statement about "being under sniper fire" in Bosnia was fabricated. Her statements about not supporting NAFTA were less than truthful. We still haven't seen the tax returns. I am quite sure that there is more to come out about her. Why do you think that Rush Limbaugh urged 100,000 republicans to vote for her in Texas (which was about the number of votes by which she won). Only 44% of Americans find her to be honest. And that's before the right wing starts reminded people about all of the scandals of the Clinton years. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 22, 2008, 10:20:33 am For all practical purposes the party is split 50/50 with a great deal of passion on both sides. The super delegates will ultimately decide the nominee. This is what the primary is about.
PMCalk thank you for saying you will support Clinton if she is nominated. That's the spirit. I would like to see more people in both camps realize that this is about the party and not about individuals. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: rwarn17588 on March 22, 2008, 10:23:06 am Famous last words:
-- "The insurgency is in its last throes." -- "The Giants have no chance against the Patriots." -- "The Americans are not there. They're not in Baghdad." -- "This doesn't come with ammo?" -- "Titanic is unsinkable." -- "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." -- "Hillary has the momentum!" Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 22, 2008, 10:51:02 am Okay, made another contribution. That felt good.
USRufnex, I'm at the legal limit. You can't give more than I have unless you give to the party and that might be used for Ms. Clinton. Dear Hometown [my edit], Thank you for your generous contribution. We are at a critical stage in the campaign, and our online supporters like you are making the difference. The more people we reach, the more resources we will have to help Hillary win. Send an email to your friends and family asking them to support our campaign by making a contribution at http://www.hillaryclinton.com/joinme Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: RecycleMichael on March 22, 2008, 10:55:47 am Since you guys have brought back the topic of his speech last week, I thought I would comment a little more. I watched it and thought it was a great speech. His tone and delivery are so polished and his words on race were truly inspirational. But the stuff in the speech about his pastor were not.
What do these phrases mean? "I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother" No. You don't get to pick your grandmother. You get to pick your pastor. "...until this black church, on this bright day, seemed once more a vessel carrying the story of a people into future generations and into a larger world. Our trials and triumphs became at once unique and universal, black and more than black..." Unique and universal? Black and more than black? What? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 22, 2008, 12:21:22 pm Did you see ABC Nightly News on Friday and their interviews with working class White Democrats in Pennsylvania who had heard Rev. Wright but did not hear Obama’s race speech? Based on that report it looks like the issue of Rev. Wright is very much alive with Reagan Democrats.
Regarding “Our trials and triumphs became at once unique and universal, lack and more than lack.” Obama means, the Black experience in the civil rights movement became the model for women and all minorities and led to organizations like Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow Coalition. Other than that, the problem is that Obama appeals to and speaks to elites and he hasn’t dispelled lingering questions in the minds of less sophisticated people. I found the speech lacking because he didn't issue a call to action or a plan to address the complex racial problems he laid out. And you also get the feeling with the Obama campaign that they see racism where there is none. And that they believe they are the only ones qualified to address issues of race. The speech was prosiac and never reached for poetry. It was competent, not great, and didn't get the job done. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 22, 2008, 12:32:56 pm quote: I'm still puzzled with the attention on Rev Wright when it should be on McCain after seeing his performance in the mid east this week. Are people just blind to old age? I am beggining to think the republicans are going to have a real problem on their hands come November. I am starting to think they better have a damn good back up plan. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: guido911 on March 22, 2008, 05:39:23 pm The Washington Post points out the whopper told by Hillary re: 1996 Bosnia trip
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/21/AR2008032102989.html Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 22, 2008, 06:48:28 pm Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan in the WSJ...
A Thinking Man's Speech March 21, 2008; Page W16 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120604775960652829.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: pmcalk on March 22, 2008, 07:30:05 pm quote: Hometown, you must be the only democrat who I have heard say anything like this. My friends--Clinton and Obama fans both--recognize this speech as truly a historic one. To me, it was reminiscent of Robert F. Kennedy. To say that it was not great either means you did not hear it, or did not understand it. You can support Clinton and still recognize a truly transforming moment in our history. One in which a politician spoke to as as though we were adults, and capable of handling difficult issues. No 8 second sound bite. No applause line. Surely you haven't become so jaded by the MSM as to believe that we all must be spoken as though we are stupid in order to be understood. It was clearly the best explanation of our current race relationship that I have ever heard from anyone, let alone a politician. We are both good democrats here, and despite my criticism of her, I have no doubt that Clinton will do well if she were to become president. But as a democrat, to diminish this speech is to diminish everything that we democrats stand for. If you are more concerned about the endless reels of youtube videos than about moving our country past the injustices of racism and sexism, of healing the wounds that occurred only a generation ago, of recognizing the true complexity of the problem, then you might as well turn on Fox news and tune the democrats out. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 22, 2008, 08:48:51 pm PM- Some people were simply under-whelmed by his speech. Could be due to personal bias, could be someone has heard better speeches, could be the listener thinks the speaker is disingenuous. None of those things necessarily apply to me and I'm not putting words in HT's mouth- that's up to him. Just because you were over-whelmed by it doesn't mean everyone else was.
I'm of the day-late dollar-short mind-set on his speech. He had a long time to explain his relationship with Wright. He didn't take it serious until his chief Democrat nemesis made issue of it and now he's left people wondering if he's honest. He ignored it when GOP flacks were trying to make hay of it on their talk shows and totally blew it when he finally did respond to it. No doubt Obama is a very very well-coached and practiced orator and he's got some great speech writers working for him. I'm sure he's got great input into his speeches, but it's all crafted to get the most impact with help from advisors. Same as the other two candidates in this campaign. He's shown he knows how to play the game that much is clear and true to me. I truly do want to know more about this guy. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 22, 2008, 11:32:07 pm Outfoxed: Fox News technique: "some people say"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYA9ufivbDw underwhelmed? Sorry there weren't enough sound bites for ya.... And YES, I know I'm quoting Daily Kos.... http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/18/17135/6770/569/465227 "From Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic comes the reporting that Obama wrote his speech on race and America himself. Reports Ambinder: 'This wasn't a speech by committee... Obama wrote the speech himself, working on it for two days and nights.... and showed it to only a few of his top advisers.' ------------------------------------------------ I spent the last five hours in my woodshop with a lathe and sandpaper and an awl, carving this beautiful oak chair that I now present to you. I did it because you will need something to sit down on when the full measure of what Ambinder wrote crashes upon you like all the heavens and the stars above Let me repeat it. Because it bears repeating. That speech today? The one that has pundits--from the liberal David Corn at The Nation ("This is as sophisticated a discussion of race as any American politician has sought to present to the public") to the conservative Charles Murray, of National Review Online ("it is just plain flat out brilliant—rhetorically, but also in capturing a lot of nuance about race in America. It is so far above the standard we're used to from our pols."), and those inbetween--noting the brilliance, sophistication, sincerity and candor of the words spoken by Obama? That speech? He wrote it himself. Once more, with feeling: He wrote it. Himself. Barack Obama did. He wrote it. Now, if you are like me, and I pray for your soul you are not, you had the normal reaction to finding out this piece of information. You rushed right to the Library of Congress to determine exactly the last time that a President or a presidential candidate wrote a major speech alone, by himself or herself. And, of course, what you discover is that other than the speeches Obama has written for himself, the last time a major speech was written without the aid of a speechwriter by a president or presidential candidate was Nixon's "Great Silent Majority" speech delivered on October 13, 1969. Now that was a good speech. Evil, no doubt, to its very core, and designed to proliferate the feelings that allowed the great Southern Strategy success, but a good speech nevertheless. In other words, not in my lifetime. And I am oldish. I have kids and wear dark socks with slippers and complain about the quality of my lawn and get hungover way too easily. But in the last 37 years there hasn't been a speech like this written by the man himself. Not like this. Here is a chair. Regardless of who you support, or what you think of Obama, I want you to sit here, right here on this chair and consider something wonderful. To wit: It is possible that we will have a President who not only will speak in full, complete sentences, but who will do so in a manner that is eloquent, and who will also be articulate and eloquent in delivering words he is intelligent enough to know, understand, and use in a speech he is capable of writing himself. This chair, it is oak. Sit and think about that. After seven years of the worst crumble-bumblings of the nattering nabob from Crawford, think about that. He wrote that speech. He wrote it. He, himself." http://www.observer.com/2008/obama-versus-gotcha-narrative quote: Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 23, 2008, 11:16:52 am quote: Do you want to know more about John McCain's condition? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: TulsaFan-inTexas on March 23, 2008, 06:17:36 pm quote: I'm a registered Republican and I would vote for Obama over Hillary Clinton in a heartbeat. Maybe even over McCain. I'm not on board with all of his politics but the man does tend to speak honestly and not dodge questions; something all of the other candidates seem to have done since the beginning of time. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 24, 2008, 06:57:18 am quote: There is nothing wrong with meeting people where they live and communicating with people in terms they can understand. Short and snappy one liners communicate on the symbolic level and I would argue that a great leader has to reach out to all of his or her constituents and communicate on the symbolic level. Not to do so is elitist. I have said before, I think the speech was competent and I’ve also called it good. I’ve been specific and analyzed elements of the speech to back up my points. I’ve said the speech is an exposition of race relations as we find them without offering a plan of action to address problems. For example, Obama tacitly criticized affirmative action by talking about resentment among poor Whites without offering a plan to address that resentment. Does he intend to do away with affirmative action or does intend to amend it? He has pointed out problems with the status quo without lifting up a light to lead to us to something better. On another point, Obama hangs his hat on his judgment and to illustrate this he points again and again to his vote against the war in Iraq – period. Now, this plays well with the left wing of our party but I believe that in the general election Ms. Clinton’s more hawkish vote to give Bush war powers will be better received. You may recall the vast majority of our leaders supported the move towards war; the same media that has fallen in love with Obama did nothing to question the impending war. I believe Obama’s Rev. Wright episode creates questions about his judgment and on another issue I for one was disappointed when I learned he had voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill. We have also never seen Obama throw a punch. What is he going to do the next time we learn about something troubling from his past? Make another speech. That would only reinforce the notion that his one talent is making speeches. I am not surprised that many Blacks have flocked to Obama’s camp despite the fact that the Clintons have a longer and more potent history of working for the Black vote. But when the Obama campaign parses words to the point of absurdity and accuses Clinton of racism where there is none I don’t believe the fight against real racism is well served. Finally, PMCalk, have you reflected on the fact that you are working against what may be the biggest break through for women in your lifetime? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 09:45:10 am We have a bumper crop of big problems. We need someone who can help us understand our duty as Americans and help us understand the challenges before us. When the going gets tough, Americans have an unparalelled ability to transcend our individual fears, weaknesses, and predjudices and forge new solutions as countrymen. It is a great gift.
After two election cycles of pee-yer-pants fear mongering, disinformation and distraction, and unhealthy selfishness and divisiveness, Americans are longing for someone to remind us that we have hard work to do and that we are, inextricably, on the same team. Obama's doing a great job of this. He didn't condemn Bill after Bill said dumb stuff in SC. Smart people sometimes say dumb things. That is what we in the business of living call, life. Redemption and reinvention are a part of our culture, and perhaps our greatest strength. Bill gets that. Bill is that. Obama and his team are doing a pretty darn good job of challenging politicians and pundits to rise above "slice and dice" politics. He's not going to send Wright, or anybody else, to the gulag. Instead, he's going to challenge us all to use our brains as well as our mouths; from time to time we all say things that are beyond the pale. We have to change, and we have to be big-hearted about it if we are going to build strong coalitions. What kind of Union are we left with when we turn our backs on everybody who makes a stupid remark? Oh, and for those of you who think that speeches are unimportant, here ya go: quote:Where do you think we'd be today if we didn't have this man, and words like that, to sustain us through the Civil War? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: we vs us on March 24, 2008, 09:47:43 am quote: It might be a refreshing change from the same old punch-counterpunch wars of political attrition that we've been living with for years and years. Or at least since the beginning of the Clinton era. If, after 17 years or so, you're still looking for more of the right-left slugfest, where progress is incremental and triangulated, and everyone begrudges even miniscule compromise, then by all means let's elect Hillary. I certainly can't blame her solely for the last 15 years of yuck, but she was a key player in the sick political dynamic of the nineties. Is Obama better? Dunno, but he's promising, and he's doing his damndest to avoid some of our deeper political ruts. That Obama was able to pull a speech of any caliber whatsoever out of the Wright mess -- which, let's admit, was, for all its sensational aspects, just another exercise in gotcha-by-association -- is pretty impressive to me. As pure tactics, it was a middling effort. If the goal was merely to put Wright behind him so he could get on with the race, then yeah, it wasn't impressive. But he wasn't going for tactics, as far as I can tell. He made a conscious effort to step out of the expectations that the workaday political narrative demanded; he chose instead to make the Wright controversy central to his campaign. Obama's virtually guaranteed that Wright will continue to be brought up, and I think he did that completely consciously. That's the reason it's such a monumental thing -- apart from the fact that he's the front runner in a tightly contested Democratic race who's willing to grab that famous third rail of politics with both hands. PS. I would wholeheartedly vote for Hillary in the general if she gets the nod. I've been a big Hill supporter in the past, and continue to recognize her as an historic figure in her own right. IMO, this era in US history calls for a skillset entirely different than what she's offering, though. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 10:04:51 am Good observation, weevus. Obama's speech was strategy, not tactics. Strategy will win this election.
Remember 2000 when Bush was the "compassionate" conservative? Depending on who you talk to, he's neither, but the strategy helped him win an election. And for those of you wondering if Obama's strategy is working, I present Chris freakin' Wallace, of all people, scolding his Fox friends for Obama bashing: http://www.redlasso.com/ClipPlayer.aspx?id=b9797761-37d1-4b7d-8d27-d72bb37e5516 How often do the dems have any effect on the Fox news media narrative? Just about never, if you want to know. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 24, 2008, 11:39:35 am The Contemporary era of dirty politics began with Tricky Dick. The Republicans wrote the book. Democrats have never done anything but play defense in that regard.
Like I’ve said before, I would like to see Democrats on the offense. I would like to see us dole out some punishment. Wevus, you mention triangulation. The bedrock of the Clinton strategy was triangulation (finding the middle ground) and compromise. Remember, “Getting some of what you want is better than none of what you want”? No more punching it out in the general election. Dream on. We’re going to have every nanosecond of “God Dam America” memorized after seeing it five million some odd times. Meet the Press was playing sound bites Sunday. I suspect Obama’s speech was in the can and that he quickly tailored it for a response to the Wright situation. Like I’ve said, if Obama is our candidate I will support him with enthusiasm. So don’t be surprised if you see me arguing for Obama. But meanwhile, I believe that Ms. Clinton’s claim that the first thing she would do is get us back on the road to fiscal responsibility is exactly what the doctor ordered for these precarious times. I believe in track records and rewarding good service. Remember the Clinton economy? Frankly, my opponents in these little disagreements are like their candidate, short on specifics and long on generalizations. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 24, 2008, 11:55:03 am quote: To call the Clintons racist is absurd. I think I heard most of what Bill had to say around the time of South Carolina. I didn't hear any racism at all. What exactly did Bill say that you believe was racist? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 12:17:11 pm quote:You are in the weeds, friend. But while you are there, Chris Wallace chiding his fellow Fox idiots is not a generalization. It's a bit of evidence that a guy who talks to us about race, as if we were adults is hard to tar as a racist. He's not calling (either) Clinton a racist; he's not calling Geraldine a racist. He's simply saying that racism is a tough issue, and it touches all of us every day. People say things that make other's cringe, don't pretend it doesn't happen; and don't run away from it. Nobody demands perfection, just honesty. He's not, as Rush claims, going to be the racial-healer-in-chief. But he is a guy who's not afraid to talk about the issue. That will resonate. And as important, there's no hypocrisy factor. Compare that to Kerry's swiftboat problem. Kerry leaned heavily on his war hero status. So, when the Swiftboat Liars for Truth attacked him, it got attention because there was this potential for hypocrisy. Obama's trying hard to make sure that race does not become the central issue. And the freaks that press it are starting to look like freeks. It's strategy. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 12:23:08 pm quote:Yes, it is. And I didn't. So, get over it. I said that he made some dumb remarks. The Jesse Jackson allusion was dumb...not racist...just dumb. If anything, it was a failure to recognize that Obama was as formidable as he is. Bill's pretty close to that lady he endorsed, so it's forgivable. But, it was a dumb remark. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 24, 2008, 01:23:18 pm Bill Clinton said "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina." What was dumb or even remotely racist about that?
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 01:38:24 pm First, listen to yourself. Did I say racist? Did Obama? Both deserve and answer from you.
Now, why was it a dumb remark? It was addressed to superdelegates. Guess what started happening 15 minutes later? People started asking what a superdelegate was, who they were, what there purpose was, and why were they created. Sure, superdelegates were created to block Jesse's nomination, to protect us from ourselves. But that's not really the half of it. It opens up a far-reaching can of worms that spans almost every negative that Hillary now faces: political elitism, the DLC and Democrats who "know better", the Republican Lite policies, the caving in, abandonment of principles, and the quiet contrition that served only to hand the keys to a bunch of wacko Republicans. Its a giant can of worms that makes Hillary look like an elitist and Barack look like a winner. Hillary's team has been wrangling with that albatross ever since. That's dumb. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 24, 2008, 01:39:43 pm It's code.
Slick Willie wanted a Sister Souljah moment for his wife.... http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CEFDB1231F93BA15755C0A964958260 "Mr. Clinton brought the Uzi of power and position to bear on someone with a dart gun full of poison. Those little suckers sure sting. But it's clear who's better armed. It's especially clear when the man should be carrying a lamp instead, looking to illuminate. All of us rushed right in to say that Bill Clinton was right, right, right, no doubt about it. And there was no doubt that Sister Souljah's words have been unconscionable. But as any debater can tell you, right may give you a lovely puffed-up feeling, but sometimes it does not advance the argument." Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 01:55:08 pm quote:Thanks for that. Ohhh, Bill Bradley...now there was a great American. What's he doing these days? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: guido911 on March 24, 2008, 02:23:37 pm quote: Nevermind that whopper about her Bosnia trip. Clinton says she misspoke. That makes it all better now. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/clinton-misspoke-about-bosnia-trip-campaign-says/ Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 24, 2008, 02:43:59 pm "But her account has been challenged, first by Sinbad, the comedian, who traveled with her, and then by news organizations, most notably the Washington Post, which awarded her four “Pinnochios” which it gives for major “whoppers.”"
Wow, that's great when you have a comedian challenging the first lady's account of a trip. If it was that dangerous, would they have been sending civilian entertainers? Don't think so. The WaPo award is pretty damn funny as well. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Gaspar on March 24, 2008, 02:47:06 pm Oh, I think we're going to be in for a lot of this.
"I just mis-spoke when I said that people WERE SHOOTING AT ME" No biggie! Just a slip of the tung when I implied that I, and my entourage of other people who possess brains and clear memories, were under attack." "I just figured that they wouldn't remember." "What I meant is that it seemed like we were under attack!" I did not have sexual relations with that woman. . . ok, I did, but it wasen't sex. . . ok, it can be considered sex depending on what your definition of "is" is. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 24, 2008, 02:57:46 pm "The 'Skeeter Bites Report: What's Behind Those Tabloid Rovian Smears of Obama. "Supporters of the Illinois senator are convinced that the articles are politically motivated, but don't know who's behind them. But an examination of the tabloids' ownership yields one very interesting finding. It turns out that American Media Inc., the parent company of the Enquirer, Globe and the Examiner, is, in turn, controlled by Evercore Partners, whose founder, chairman, co-CEO and principal owner is Roger Altman, a prominent New York investment banker. Altman is also a former deputy treasury secretary in the administration of President Bill Clinton -- and a key economic advisor of Hillary Clinton's campaign for the White House." Connect the dots. "
http://www.skeeterbitesreport.com/2008/03/new-anti-obama-smears-published-in.html Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 24, 2008, 03:05:31 pm FOTD- where in the hell do you keep finding these lib-tard blogs? [}:)]
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 24, 2008, 03:12:18 pm The links are there for all to find who are not listening to fright wing radio.....we are everywhere!
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: we vs us on March 24, 2008, 03:23:01 pm quote: Speaking as a fellow lib-tard . . . they're amazingly awful, aren't they? FOTD, can't we have a couple iof mainstream dKos links for us to sort through? Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 24, 2008, 03:24:00 pm Want to get this in before everyone goes home after a hard day of posting.
You said it was dumb. The Obama campaign said it was racist. It was neither. It was a statement of fact meant to lower expectations for Ms. Clinton's performance in South Carolina. The Clintons have put in a lifetime of serving Black people and they deserve better. Like I said, the Obama campaign sees racism where there is none. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Gaspar on March 24, 2008, 03:55:11 pm All this fighting among each other is causing both Hillary and Obama to slip against McCain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 24, 2008, 03:56:52 pm quote: I'm not worried about that. McCain will silence his tribe but not purposely. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 24, 2008, 04:54:26 pm quote: There's a benefit to the GOP troops having already circled the wagons while the Dem candidates are still pissing on each other. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 24, 2008, 06:26:42 pm quote:No, they did not. This is a key point, not because I like to tell you you are wrong, but because it plays into Obama's strategy. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: guido911 on March 24, 2008, 08:21:09 pm quote: And here's the video story from CBS (Sorry Recycle): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BfNqhV5hg4 Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Breadburner on March 24, 2008, 08:28:41 pm quote: And FOTD with his mouth open.... Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on March 24, 2008, 08:39:34 pm Sucker punched again!
Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 24, 2008, 08:54:45 pm quote: Classic... [}:)][8D] Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: USRufnex on March 24, 2008, 09:44:06 pm quote: Sorry. I believe the opposite is true... Hillary Clinton could easily have gotten 25% - 40% of the black vote in South Carolina. But her southern politician husband played games... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/in_contrast_to_obama_hillary_p.html January 16, 2008 In Contrast to Obama, Hillary Plays the Race Card By Dick Morris On the evening of Jan. 3, it became clear that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) was going to be a serious candidate for president with a viable chance of winning. The Clintons decided that he was going, inevitably, to win a virtually unanimous vote from the black community. Their own reputation for support for civil rights would make no difference. With a black candidate within striking distance of the White House, a coalescing of black voters behind his candidacy became inevitable. Frustratingly for the Clintons, Obama had achieved this likely solidarity among black voters without, himself, summoning racial emotions. He had gone out of his way to avoid mentioning race -- quite a contrast with Hillary, whose every speech talks about her becoming the first female president. But precisely to distinguish himself from the Jesse Jacksons and Al Sharptons of American politics, Obama resisted any racial appeal or even reference. His rhetoric, argumentation, and presentation was indistinguishable from a skilled white candidate's. So the Clintons faced a problem: With Obama winning the black vote, how were they to win a sufficient proportion of the white electorate to offset his advantage? Not racists themselves, they decided, nonetheless, to play the race card in order to achieve the polarization of the white vote that they needed to offset that among blacks. They embarked on a strategy of talking about race -- mentioning Martin Luther King Jr., for example -- and asking their surrogates to do so as well. They have succeeded in making an election that was about gender and age into one that is increasingly about race. According to the Rasmussen poll of Monday, Jan. 14, Obama leads among blacks by 66-16 while Hillary is ahead among whites by 41-27. The overall head to head is 37-30 in favor of Hillary. It does not matter which specific reference to race can be traced to whom. Obama's campaign has resisted any temptation to campaign on race and, for an entire year, kept the issue off the front pages. Now, at the very moment that the crucial voting looms, the election is suddenly about race. Obviously, it is the Clintons' doing. Remember the adage: Who benefits? As Super Tuesday nears, the Clintons will likely take their campaign to a new level, charging that Obama can't win. They will never cite his skin color in this formulation, but it will be obvious to all voters what they mean: that a black cannot get elected. The Clintons are far from above using race to win an election. Running for president in the aftermath of the 1992 Los Angeles race riots, Clinton seized on a comment made by rapper Sister Souljah in an interview with her published on May 13, 1992 in The Washington Post. She said, "If black people kill black people every day, why not have a week and kill white people?" Clinton pounced, eager to show moderates that he was not a radical and was willing to defy the political correctness imposed on the Democratic Party by the civil rights leadership. In a speech to the Rainbow Coalition he said, "If you took the words 'white' and 'black' and you reversed them, you might think David Duke was giving that speech," an allusion to the former Klansman then running for public office in Louisiana. The Clintons will be very careful about how they go about injecting race into the campaign. Part of their strategy will be to provoke discussion of whether race is becoming a factor in the election. Anything that portrays Obama as black and asks about the role of race in the contest will serve their political interest. And you can bet that there is nothing they won't do ... if they can get away with it. ------------------------------------------------ Ah, the good ol' days when Dick Morris and James Carville were schilling for Bill Clinton..... and they say there's no honor among thieves.... Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: spoonbill on March 25, 2008, 05:33:13 am Watching the endless compilations of Hillary video coverage last night I realized something.
I'm an old poker player, so I tend to notice the "nervous tell." Hillary has what is known as a nystagmic tick. She blinks wildly and looks from the upper left to the upper right when she is being deceptive or lying. I had to hit YouTube and watch a few of her other speeches to make sure, and-Wham! She's firing on all cylinders with this! Now I can't help but see it when she speaks. What a gift, a built in BS detector. Watch her speech on her Bosnia trip. It's all the training you need to spot this in the future. Otherwise she's a fairly good poker player! Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 25, 2008, 06:29:46 am Obama surrogate Donna Brazil first introduced race as a campaign issue responding to Bill’s “fairytale” remarks.
Accusing someone of telling fairytales is blatently racist, right? Blacks had initially supported Clinton and held back on supporting Obama until they believed he was a viable candidate. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 25, 2008, 08:05:09 am quote: No, sexist I think. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 25, 2008, 10:14:13 am quote:Brazile said that Bill's referances to Barack as a "kid" with "fairytale" ideas were insulting, if for no other reason than because he is a US Senator. And she said that, as an African-American, she found the the tone "depressing". But the main thrust of her criticism was that it sounded like "sour grapes" from Bill, and that he should spend his time helping Hillary get her message out, not "go down the road" of criticizing Barack. If you are providing this as an example of Obama's people playing the race card, it's weak at best. Brazile's answers were far more nuanced. Interestingly, the Clinton campaign followed her advice...at least until Bill's recent "patriot" comments. To which, Obama's folks said that it stunk of McCarthyism. Again, not racism. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 25, 2008, 11:41:53 am Bill said (I'm paraphrasing) that he wishes the election could be about issues.
I have heard many people say the same thing and not one of them has been accused of McCarthyism. We've seen some real McCarthyism over the last seven years come from Baby Bush and I think it's a disservice to all of us to lob that criticism at Clinton. A lot of this is going to look really funny in retrospect. Now, Mr. Little, a long time ago you made a remark about your political leanings and you left me with the impression that you were an independent on a crusade to squash "truthiness." Did I misread your earlier statement? In this thread you leave me with the impression that you believe the Democrats have drifted away from their core beliefs and we have moved too far to the right. If that is the case, I understand your concern, but I do not believe taking the party back to the left is a prescription for winning in the general election or governing after we win the White House. I've heard people describe Obama as being more liberal than Clinton but his support of the Bush/Cheney energy bill and his criticism of affirmative action causes me to wonder exactly where he stands. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on March 25, 2008, 12:24:47 pm quote: Specifics, please? I know how much you dislike generalities so I figured this was an oversight on your part. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: cannon_fodder on March 25, 2008, 12:52:43 pm Yep, I remember the tour of the BOk center. As we arrived the final pieces were being put in place and sun was shining off of the gleaming terrazzo floors. The luxury boxes were completed and the leather chairs were very comfy when we sat in them, staring down at the hardwood floor. "Now that is what happened."
Oh wait, I misspoke. The building was still under heavy construction, the terrazzo floors were not in yet and the luxury boxes were only framed up - not chair to sit on and for that matter, no hardwood floor to look upon. I just misspoke. - - - That CBS piece is priceless. She was nailed on an order higher than I can recall in recent politics. Hell, even the "mission accomplished" banned had loads of wiggle roam. This was a narrated story that went on for several minutes. There were whizzing sniper fire, rushing aids to usher her with her head down to be sped away as death awaited around every corner. Ceremonies were canceled and she risked life and limb to see the troops! "Now that is what happened." How, in the hell, is that "oops I misspoke." Video again! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BfNqhV5hg4 Her story was as different as my narrative of our BOk center tour. WE both went were we said we did, but the state of things in the story simply were not true. No way that was a miscommunication. [edit]Added "now that is what happened" line[/edit] Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 25, 2008, 01:10:28 pm quote: Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 25, 2008, 01:19:50 pm quote:I'm confused...who else has said "it'd be great" if the election could be between two people "devoted to the interest of the country"? Why wouldn't it be? I mean, Obama's a patriot, too, right? quote:That's exactly the prescription for winning...and I guess that's where we differ. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: guido911 on March 25, 2008, 01:38:37 pm quote: And of course in 1992 Hillary was tired of government lying to people: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2008/03/25/hillary-60-minutes-voters-are-tired-people-who-lie-them Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Hometown on March 25, 2008, 04:14:48 pm quote: Well, I won't try to pin you down on party affiliation. You have been such an outstanding advocate for some issues that are near and dear to me that I can't get mad at you. I wish I could get excited about Obama but I just don't see what 50% of the Democrats see in him. I look at him and I see big time defeat. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Chicken Little on March 25, 2008, 04:38:58 pm quote:Likewise, buddy. quote:I suggest watching the 2004 DNC speech again. Parts I and II http://youtube.com/watch?v=awQkJNVsgKM http://youtube.com/watch?v=1UDKXKGZ3PY Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on April 03, 2008, 05:53:34 pm The coup de gras ending the democrat split....
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4581608&page=1 Pass the butter and jam...she is toast. Concedes between the 20th and May 2nd. Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: Conan71 on April 03, 2008, 06:40:29 pm It's other's prerogative to decide how much Mr. Clinton's speeches are worth. Hillary will spin it all into her being victim of bad press.
You underestimate her ego. No concession before August 26 or so, if then. You certainly aren't suggesting that Goldman-Sachs would be circumventing campaign contribution laws by paying a certain Presidential candidate's spouse to come speak at a dinner or two, now would you? Certainly the Clintons wouldn't stoop to questionable campaign funding! /mock shock Title: Hillary has momentum Post by: FOTD on April 03, 2008, 07:10:55 pm quote: The stake through her heart will not become evident until the return goes through close examination. The devil (not me) will be in the details. Unfortunately, Bill's fund raising for his liebarry will not be inclusive. I bet when there is close scrutiny, everyone will wonder "what would have happened had she won the nomination and then this stuff was revealed?" Perhaps, the age of Clinton narcism is coming to a close. |