The Tulsa Forum by TulsaNow

https://www.kjrh.com/news/local-news/whirlpool-plans-55-million-tulsa-expansion

A key part about this plant mentioned in TW article:


Does this initial investment seem like it's worth it now? That's a lot of employees (soon to be ~ 1,800) and $55 million expansion. With inflation, $26 mil then is worth about $44 mil today.

It would be interesting to see if corporate welfare pays off. In the case of taxpayers trying to lure the Boeing 787 to Tulsa, it didn't seem to pay off. The practically-free rent the bus plant pays seems like a huge loss also. Basically, we're giving millions to corporations in exchange for slightly higher than average jobs and the tax revenue that provides to the state and when they spend locally. I'm not sure what taxes Whirlpool pays besides land tax ($315k last year, $250k this year).

In today's dollars, they paid about $26,600 per job. It's likely that was recouped via taxes over the years plus about $6 mil property taxes. Often times, it doesn't work out so well: https://www.creators.com/read/jim-hightower/01/18/who-really-pays-for-corporate-subsidies (https://www.creators.com/read/jim-hightower/01/18/who-really-pays-for-corporate-subsidies)

My guess it is that the Whirlpool case was slightly better than not doing anything and hoping they just build the plant here with the existing advantages, but in hind sight it does seem like a deal compared to what other cities have done. After that, Tulsa got more aggressive with incentives (as did most other large cities in the US). "New York gave a $258-million subsidy to Yahoo and got 125 jobs — costing taxpayers $2 million per job."



Amazon was offered $8.5 billion by a town in Maryland and NJ offered $7 billion for HQ2. That's getting up around $200k/job. That's a whole new level of corporate welfare. And corporations are so large they can command unsustainable and unrecoverable sums from cities across the US and world. It's an arms race and like with new stadiums taxpayers buy for billionaires, it doesn't make economic sense. It's not capitalism, it's a government-mandated socialized welfare for corporations.

Amazon gets billions in taxpayer subsidies each year (as does Walmart).


The Whilrpool plant seems far better than this, but the concept has been driven to the ground and taken advantage of by more profit-driven corporations. The US pays out more in corporate welfare than it gets back in TOTAL corporate taxes! Is that supposed to be trickle-down at work? Or is that just using political power to legalize theft?

Whirlpool was reasonable.  Considering the annual income 1650 jobs over 22 years, it's pretty safe to say it's been worth it.  The kind of numbers being thrown around these days, I can't imagine how long it would take to show any sort of payback for hand-outs er incentives in the billions.

Whirlpool never was 'higher end' jobs - it was and is still just above minimum wage manufacturing jobs.  They specifically said when they came to town (1996) in their 'cattle call' hiring meetings that these are NOT oil and gas nor airline jobs.  And they have not improved since then.  Factory worker will be under $15 an hour.  Line Leader about $17 an hour.   REAL minimum wage adjusted for inflation would be about $13 an hour - or about double what the current Republican suppressed minimum wage is today.

Expansion plans by Whirlpool Corporation will help them qualify for more incentives from the State of Oklahoma's Quality Job Program.  

Quality Jobs Program:  Incentives to qualifying businesses making new payroll investments of $2.5 million or more:   https://okcommerce.gov/business/incentives/quality-jobs-program/ (https://okcommerce.gov/business/incentives/quality-jobs-program/)

Only in Oklahoma is a 'minimum wage' job considered a "Quality Job".

So what you're saying is industries and markets set better minimum wages naturally, and we don't need government to do that for us?  ;)




I had never read into the details of that program before, but my understanding of it was that it required the newly added positions to pay an average salary of something like $60k+ a year? That $2.5 million threshold is low considering how many manufacturing companies add hundreds of jobs at a time.

They're not the greatest jobs but probably similar in vein to a lot of Amazon factory jobs in terms of pay. Also, great for those with no experience or no degree or technical certifications. In Oklahoma, the ~$33k-$40k salaries are enough to afford a house, even if it's not the nicest house or area. That's game changing over a $8-$10/hr job which basically eliminates that as an option. I knew of at least 1 person who worked at Whilrpool as a regular line worker and was the only one working in their household.

https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/house-affordability/ (https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/house-affordability/)

Once you trim out all the excess and fat, Oklahoma can be very cheap place to live. In the mid 2000's I used to live on around $3,600 year in college sharing a 2 bedroom with 3 roommates. It was comfortable to me. I couldn't imagine what I'd do once I graduated and got a real job!

My point is those $15-$19/hr jobs are lifeblood to those just need a bit of a boost to get ahead, FAR better than any minimum wage job or typical physical labor. That guy ended up getting better and better jobs over the years with that experience.

Speaking of Amazon, Whirlpool, and other new manufacturing jobs that are coming to Tulsa, my question is how will they find the bodies to fill those positions? 150 new positions is one thing but isn't Amazon's intention to hire around 1500 people?

Perhaps this question is better suited for another thread, but Tulsa doesn't exactly have a booming population, and no one is relocating here for $13-$18 an hour jobs. Between the unemployment rates being low here and the somewhat stagnant population growth, I've always thought Tulsa needs something to bring consistent national attention to the city. Things like the Gathering Place certainly help with that, but only for a short period of time.

Having gone to college down in Norman, it is very evident that OKC having a professional NBA team draws enough national attention to get people to start moving in from the coasts and other surrounding states.

Ultimately, Bynum and team are doing a good job recruiting companies to move/expand here, but you need the population growth to fill positions as well, which is something companies consider when picking cities.

Sure they do. My company relocated a couple people to fill some positions at that rate. It's not as easy, but you can draw in plenty of people from smaller towns and nearby states like Kansas and Arkansas. Tulsa is a pretty big happening city compared to some of the surrounding po'dunks.

I agree with your sentiment though. It's always been a challenge. We simply aren't going to get an NBA/NFL/MLB/etc team here. Iterative improvements and major projects like Gathering Place are our path forward. Slowly people are discovering that Tulsa is a pretty cool place.

We kind of assume that any growth is good growth, but at some point we need some decent jobs. The hope is that 150 lower-level jobs here and there will ultimately support more and better jobs in the overall jobs eco-sphere, but it's always hard to say how well that works out. It's not as linear as everyone assumes or hopes.

Tulsa has grown around 5.6% since 2010 and OKC around 6.2%. Both growing faster than the state or US as a whole.

There's over a million in the metropolitan CSA and around 950k closer to Tulsa. That is plenty to provide 1650 new employees for jobs. Most people in the Tulsa area do not live in the city. The city may  be slowly losing population over time but the suburbs like Jenks and Bixby are among the fastest growing in state. OKC annexed a huge amount of its suburb areas and so they don't have quite the same population issue on paper but their core was gutted over many decades and the most of the southern part of the city remains pretty run down and is still losing population. People there move further out and still end up in the city along with the large numbers moving downtown into midtown-esque areas that were previously unoccupied.

The state as a whole is gaining population right at the middle of the pack (25th since 2010 and around 4.6% just slightly below the overall US growth rate over that time). I don't think an NBA franchise is the cause of many people moving here though. It might be a very slight bonus to some but mostly probably just incentivises some who live in Oklahoma already to move closer.

The keys are crime and education. Bad education begets crime and East Tulsa and North Tulsa are in an exceptionally bad cycle in terms of pushing residents away from crime and bad schools. The map of population growth shows people flocking to South Tulsa and suburbs and abandoning the inner city school districts while Midtown is pretty much "at capacity" with mostly single-family residents nearly all occupied. If we want that to change, public education has to be a top priority. And that will take decade(s) to see results but will be worth it.

Downtown Tulsa however is growing fast. Thousands of new units have been added over the last few years with many more planned. It takes time for that to fill in and be counted on statistics.

No.  What I am saying is that Whirlpool jobs aren't all that great.  They are paid equivalent to what burger flippers should be getting.  And were paid back when the minimum wage peaked in 1968.

1,500 is easy - all they have to do is be a quarter per hour higher than the near minimum wage job currently held.  And if they throw in just a little bit of benefits, they will fill up fast.


I made a comment in another thread about Varian and some talking up Tulsa I have been doing.  For those high end jobs, it all boils down to what 'attractions' are in the area...a little bit for employees, but even more for customers/clients that are brought to town.  The reality is, nationwide, we are looked on as "hicks from the sticks".  No matter how nice the Gathering Place is.  (And I went there today - it is very nice!)  Even remote divisions of bigger companies already here look at us that way - as the cheap labor place -but still hicks from the sticks....  Think Whirlpool.  Baker Hughes.  Badger Meter.  Johnson Controls.  Boeing.  American Airlines.  Schlumberger.  Halliburton.


Having said that, there are a lot of higher end immigrants to the state - many brought in as managers or senior technical people (older...) for a few years either as punishment or reward to enjoy the low cost of living here at the same corporate rate they enjoyed elsewhere.  Or same kind of person find a job here to help 'perk up' an existing company's performance.  Can sell a modest home worth a ton elsewhere and come here and get a McMansion, sock away some big bucks, then move back to their location of choice at retirement time.   (See the Up With Trees sign on Creek Turnpike thanking Pete Samoff...)

Seriously, some people on here are actually complaining about a company announcing a $55 million expansion and hiring more employees all at no cost to the city?  $15 an hour keeps getting bandied about without any citation to a source, but if these are manufacturing jobs that figure seems extremely low and unlikely.

They are good jobs and they are needed. Any expansion to this place is good news and shows the initial investment might've been worth it (That area has become sort of a manufacturing hub too). Many of the positions require little to no experience and are a solid salary for this part of the country, especially if you live in a smaller town near there where you can buy a house for around $100k or land and a trailer for around half that.

And it's true we don't know the exact range except what we heard from those we know in the past working there. It could easily be higher end jobs being added with the expansion. Realistically the hourly wage for the line jobs could be more than that, especially for those with experience.

I just searched for Whirlpool jobs in Tulsa and these are active listings:

https://jobs.whirlpool.com/key/tulsa-ok.html (https://jobs.whirlpool.com/key/tulsa-ok.html)

6 of those are engineering positions and the others sound like a bit higher pay grade than a typical line assembly job. (Engineering positions at Whirlpool reported to be around $75k-$100k)

My guess would be that most of the new jobs will be the higher paid positions because most of the low paying jobs will be replaced with automation in any new factory operation. That's why only 150 jobs are being added with a $55 million expansion.

From indeed.com.  And Glassdoor is similar.  May not be to the penny, but generally are very close given personal experience at other companies that have similar makeups.  Their Engineering jobs are not paying very good at all.  That can either be because they are just taking what they can get or have been actively purging older, more experienced for young ones.  Probably some of each...

https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Whirlpool-Corporation/salaries


And you are welcome!   To all of those too lazy to look into it for themselves...

Just went through a $60 million and a $50 million expansion - one engineering, one production - and it added about 250 jobs; about 75 Engineering/Technical, the rest production.  And the company also pays production line people very close numbers to what I have quoted and linked to.  They do pay Engineers/Technical a little bit better than those numbers.



AAON here in town just spent a ton of money on a big expansion - over $100 million, according to reports I have seen - would like to hear from anyone there who may have some insights about this type of thing with them.   And why don't we have a thread about that expansion??   Proportionally to company size, that is a MUCH bigger expenditure than Whirlpool will ever make here.

Here you go:
https://www.tulsaworld.com/archives/aaon-begins-big-expansion/article_44500d88-6285-5dbe-92df-bacebc265745.html (https://www.tulsaworld.com/archives/aaon-begins-big-expansion/article_44500d88-6285-5dbe-92df-bacebc265745.html)

It says $55 million on initial investment in 150,000 ft2 facility but "the rest of the expansion is so multifaceted that Aaon President and CEO Norman Asbjornson cannot put a dollar figure on it yet."


And you are welcome!   To all of those too lazy to look into it for themselves...

Good for you!   Except that is the 10 year old one.  I am talking about the 2017 expansion....it was over $100 million total...about $25 million for the box the R&D goes in and another approx $50 million they spent on R&D.  As near as I can tell, the remaining $25+ million is "squishy" money that has overall effects to the company, but probably is not direct R&D related stuff - may be test facilities and equipment in support of manufacturing...??  Still an investment in expanding the company.

They do make kind of a sweeping statement;  "A company release said it will be 'only lab in the world able to measure the supply, return and ambient sound under actual load conditions.'... "   I know of at least 3 others that do the same thing, but it is a big deal for all of them!  And something they should be doing.  (Ever sit in a restaurant or walk through Walmart and hear the sound of the fans going - like  a jet engine test stand..?)

https://www.tulsaworld.com/business/manufacturing/aaon-breaks-ground-on-research-and-development-lab-in-west/article_670f709f-8332-5cc1-8646-c1e71ab47344.html



And in other HVAC world stuff - Goodman (Daikin) in Houston area spent $450 million on an entire new manufacturing and engineering facility last year.  Lots of commotion in HVAC world.  And Trump did NOT save any jobs at all in Carrier - they are gone now from Indiana to Mexico, except for some token production and their Engineering.

Tulsa's development and progress looks very bright; companies have Oklahoma on their radar.  TulsaNow is a good place to learn about all of the excitement plans in store for our state.

I wonder about our population and income growth.   The national economy has been roaring along but I don't see comparable growth happening here.  Not really much in the way of "cranes in the air" or much housing/population infill.  The Gathering Place doesn't really count, wonderful for us as a promotion point, but it was a donation. There are a smattering of average projects currently underway downtown/mid-town.  Some potential decent projects in the pipeline (will keep our fingers crossed that they happen but as time goes by we are getting closer to the next recession and that stuff being halted).  Even much of the development we do see I wonder how our past tepid population growth has changed now.  Are we in negative territory with population decline... in an economic boom period? What happens when things go bad if these are the good times? Or have things turned the corner and we are seeing more robust population growth? (thing is again, I don't see much in the way of new housing that would reflect any decent population growth).

I tend to have the same concerns. However, while I can't really speak for Tulsa or other surrounding suburbs, my wife and I are in the process of building a house in Owasso. In going through the process of selecting a builder and looking at homes, I can tell you in this town of approx. 35k+ people there are no less than a dozen new and sizable housing developments being built ranging from $250k houses to $1m+.

Additionally, certain industries are quietly expanding in the metro and the region. Manufacturing is growing quite a lot and I've been hearing rumors from people in the know (who can't provide specifics at this time) that at least one or two companies are eye balling the industrial park where Amazon's fulfillment center is as a location for a large expansion.

Also, the Mid America industrial in Pryor has rumors coming down the pipe as well that I can't say are anything more than rumors at this point, but there's a reason they're building a huge mixed use development out there in the middle of the park.

Outside of that, Tulsa and Oklahoma's growth has always been steady and mostly protected from booms and busts. Small businesses are having success here and at the end of the day that's where the majority of employment comes from in the country.

Google is in process of expanding their place at Mid America...no idea of the schedule, but they are at least part way along - talking to HVAC people for many months now.

And they will help out with the wind turbine industry as well since they will probably need another 60 turbines for the expansion on top of the 60 they already use.

https://www.newsweek.com/google-will-be-powered-only-wind-and-solar-citing-massive-savings-728745 (https://www.newsweek.com/google-will-be-powered-only-wind-and-solar-citing-massive-savings-728745)

Or if you have 25 sq/miles (5mix5mi) of unused land you can build a nice solar complex like this. Might be enough for Tulsa metro area.

https://goo.gl/maps/qWwSUFjVD572 (https://goo.gl/maps/qWwSUFjVD572)

At least it just incinerates them instantly instead of clubbing them with a prop blade.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-solar-bird-deaths-20160831-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-solar-bird-deaths-20160831-snap-story.html)

I would guess that any declines have reversed and the overall economy is much better than it was 1-2 years ago.  Energy, aerospace and manufacturing are doing well and adding jobs.  I think the recent quality of life improvements (Gathering Place, downtown/Rt 66 revitalization, brewery scene, new restaurants) will bring about even more growth.

There haven't been any declines here or nationwide for about 9 years now.   It is better than 2 years ago.  And that was better than 2 years before that and that was better...so on and so on back to 2009 after Obama got us out of Bush's Depression.   Reality.  Not Trump Lies.



One little example - earlier this year was all the fanfare, hype, propaganda, and hyperbole about how the stock market had gone up almost 25% in Trump's first year.   Yeah, got close.  As compared to Obama's time when we saw the market go up 35% in the first year.  And if you look at the time from when Bush's failed market hit bottom in 2009, it went up over 65% by Obama's first State of the Union speech.  And was up about 250% over the entire 8 years.   

But Trump's first year was nice, too, even if somewhat subdued....never hurts to keep going up!   Then we got to 2018.  And where we are now.   Up what?  About -4%...since SOTU.  Oh, wait...what??  That's not very far up at all, is it?

According to the US Census the city of Tulsa has grown 2.52% so far this decade and now has 401,800 people. And while the city isn't growing very fast, but the metro area is doing better, having grown 5.68% this decade, which actually is the median growth rate for all metro areas. That number can and should be better, but we are far from shrinking.

Should see an acceleration in Tulsa's 2020-2025 growth

       MSA:  Tulsa, OK -  MSA    990,706    937,478    +5.68%
     Urban:  Tulsa, OK - City     401,800    391,906    +2.52%

MSA will exceed 1 million in 2020; population growth represents 2017est - 2010 census

  

If you're looking at the last decade, sure the city grew for early on we had decent growth.  But if you look at it year by year the growth rate has been in steady decline until the last year, and possibly this, when we crossed the threshold into actual population decline.


According to census data, during the period of July 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017, Tulsa shrank by 1,533 residents. 

I don't have the info in front of me right now but I do remember looking at the demographic breakdown for the year before last 2015-2016 when I believe we pretty much at the "holding steady" point, and it was, blacks=same, hispanics up a little, whites in decline.  Then I figured with all the animosity towards the Hispanic community that the next year we might see population decline for the only reason we were growing any population was because of the Hispanic community. 

Tulsa city (not metro) population estimates each year since 2010

2010           2011          2012   2013             2014   2015            2016   2017
392,403   392,768   394,482   398,294   399,779   403,060   403,333   401,800

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

TheArtist is right that growth was early decade. Unsurprisingly, the low gas prices in 2016-2017 slowed growth. Hopefully the rebound in gas prices mean 2018-2020 are a bit better.

But I was happily surprised that few of the major downtown projects seemed to be put on hold or canceled during that short downturn. Santa Fe Square, the developments near the ballpark, etc. kept moving forward.

Agree with both of you guys.

Tulsa's growth is more tied to the energy sector.  Lately, you've seen a Tulsa that has moved toward more diversity in the corporate & business sector; hope this translates to a city capable of better handling a recession. 

Never known oil prices to stay down.

As others have said, despite the national economy doing well Tulsa and Oklahoma were in an economic downturn during the oil downturn that slowed a lot of things from 2014-2017. We are just now getting out of that this year so population effects have not yet been realized. Furthermore, population isn't something that should be focused on year to year as much. Overall trends show the metro is growing at a stable rate. Tulsa is more suburban-focused and flocking to the suburbs is still en vogue here. Tulsa did a lot better than other cities from 2008-2012 during the "great recession". The things that stabilize Tulsa's economy during those time can also limit growth during good times because there isn't as much of a rebound. Many had to move for jobs during the oil downturn. Many have had to move here in 2018 to fill new O&G jobs. When times are "good" people tend to flock to higher cost of living areas and when things are not, people move to places with better affordability like Tulsa (There was a huge population uptick to southern states from 2008-2014 and then uptick to west coast/CO since then).

The massive thread "Downtown Development Overview" had some lists of all the projects planned or in process that hasn't been updated in a while but there are tons or projects in or close to downtown with tons of new residential (such as the massive apartment complex at 15th and Riverside). There are what 5-7 hotels have been completed or close to in downtown right now. There's the large building right across from OneOK field and part 2 of GreenArch apartments to start soon. Several big projects underway on Cherry Street or by Utica Square. Tons of revitilization in old neighborhoods in midtown where old houses and buildings are being renovated. There is a tremendous amount of growth in downtown/midtown compared to 10 or especially 20 years ago.

It's easy to take all the stuff we've seen being built/recently completed for granted but getting to this point is pretty remarkable. Downtown is actually lively a lot of times in a lot of areas and feels more like a big city now. The First Friday Art Crawl in the Arts District is tremendous with thousands of attendees. It really feels like a big-city. Those types of enhancements make Tulsa a city people will want to move to. The effects on our overall population haven't yet been realized as those things take time. There's only so much space in Tulsa for big housing developments but there's been tons of those too, especially in the south and east. And large industrial expansions in places like east Tulsa that are adding many jobs. It is tough to overcome the amount of people flocking out of run-down areas in east and north/northwest Tulsa. That is something those numbers are fighting. People are flocking from certain areas to suburbs. The only way to fight that is inward-focused development which has been happening and will hopefully create enough vibrant areas people want to live in the inner city and so the development makes its way outwards over time.

This is just a list of east downtown:



Another post about what was in process late 2015:


Tons of new living units and developments! This is just some of them and both lists are outdated by several years. It excludes the large amount of things going on in Pearl District and Kendall-Whittier. There's far more hustle and bustle downtown and midtown now than there was 10 years ago. Density is going up but infill is limited in some areas by single-family homes. There was a tally posted that they have added close to 2,000 new living units downtown over the last 4/5 years. That infill will overflow, especially as these new projects finish up and downtown becomes more fun and lively. This is a downtown that was practically a ghost town after 5pm just 10-15 years ago.

In addition to the higher density apartments downtown, Pearl and Kendall-Whittier are the areas where infill housing will be focused in the next decade.  New developments along 11th and at 6th & Peoria, the Brewers Block at 6th & Utica and future growth at Hillcrest and TU will continue to gentrify these neighborhoods.  Tying them into a better transit system, either with the 11th BRT or future streetcar, will be important.  

At the same time there are lots of neighborhoods in North Tulsa that will decline and continue to lose population.  Areas that are just north of 244 could start to gentrify as the Pearl and K-W spill over, and Brady Heights is already popular and could grow more as the UCAT land becomes available for development.  I'm talking about areas north of 36th & Peoria over to the airport.  Same goes for some of the high crime neighborhoods east of Hwy 169.  

What will be interesting to watch is what happens to the housing stock in South Tulsa between 44 and the Creek Turnpike.  These are mostly sprawly neighborhoods built from the 60's to the 90's that have a rapidly aging demographic.  Will they turn over with younger families or will those same young families go to Broken Arrow, Jenks or Owasso?  Plenty of young families live in midtown but as prices continue to increase in the most desirable neighborhoods will that be sustainable, and will that allow surrounding neighborhoods like Brook Towne, Hoover, Wedgwood, Turner Park and K-W to absorb those families and keep them in TPS?

I'm not sure if you're being facetious or not but obviously the things that make the economy go up or down are far outside of the presidents' control.

The economy tanked to such low levels in 2009, it was bound to have good gains in the following years. At the same time, it reached such heights last year it was bound to level out and adjust. The Price-Earnings Ratios on stocks were outlandish and not warranted by actual performance. Much of the last year has been a readjustment on that regard.

All of it, the tremendous gains and horrible losses are results of the whims of a system that is based on trust and power of the dollar whose value is controlled in large part by the chairman of the Federal Reserve. They decide how much the dollars in your bank or 401k are worth and probably have more power than the president overall. Regardless, the system is far larger than any president.

The market hit 6400 in March of '09, it had hit 13K in May of '08 or thereabouts.  Let's be real here, the market had nowhere to go but up Obama's first year in office.

65% increase is nothing BUT real.!!   There has NEVER been an increase like that in 9 or 10 months at any time in the history of the DOW!!   Shows what the CORRECT tax stimulus approach can do in a recession.  And how ineffective everything Bush did for the previous 18 months was - throwing $Trillions at big banks is proven to be the wrong thing....again!


And we are still down for this year.