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Not At My Table - Political Discussions => National & International Politics => Topic started by: RecycleMichael on July 26, 2016, 02:43:09 pm



Title: Which political party is winning?
Post by: RecycleMichael on July 26, 2016, 02:43:09 pm
54 of the 100 Senators are republican.
234 of 435 Congressmen are republicans.
32 of the 50 state governors are republican.
36 of the 50 state senates are run by republican majorities
37 of the 50 state houses are run by republican majorities.

Democrats have won four of the last six presidential elections, but have only appointed 4 of the current 8 Supreme Court nominees.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on July 26, 2016, 08:52:43 pm
54 of the 100 Senators are republican.
234 of 435 Congressmen are republicans.
32 of the 50 state governors are republican.
36 of the 50 state senates are run by republican majorities
37 of the 50 state houses are run by republican majorities.

Democrats have won four of the last six presidential elections, but have only appointed 4 of the current 8 Supreme Court nominees.



Those are some of the reasons I don't have to go after the Dems as much as I do the Republicontins....  Dems are having a tough time giving us the balance that is so badly needed now. 




Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: davideinstein on July 26, 2016, 09:32:22 pm
Democrats because they are consistently pushing an agenda that eventually becomes accepted.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: erfalf on July 28, 2016, 05:38:11 am


Those are some of the reasons I don't have to go after the Dems as much as I do the Republicontins....  Dems are having a tough time giving us the balance that is so badly needed now. 




This is an unusual time in history for sure. Democrats have historically had a virtual monopoly on politics in this country. I find it funny that now that there has been some opposition provided (and then some obviously according to this data) that Democrats seem to be the ones always spouting about fairness and equality (fairness doctrine and such). Kind of like when little brother finally grows up and starts putting a beat down on big brother. "Hey, that's not fair".


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: AquaMan on July 28, 2016, 07:09:59 am
Back to your 3rd grade political analyses I see. There was a world before you came and one that will succeed you. When I was in the third grade (1950's) I was stunned to find out that FDR wasn't elected by voice vote, he was so popular. Then, in the fifties Ike was so popular that Dems nearly faded away. The sixties saw the transformation of the Democratic party and the Goldwater election nearly killed the republican party. The result was the rebirth of a new republican party led by conservatives and Reagan. Each generation began to think that their period of time defined their party. The parties mutate, the strategies change. So, you make erroneous statements and draw meaningless conclusions from them.

The domination of local, state and Congressional positions by evangelicals and conservatives, along with re-districting,  has been a pretty successful attempt to slow that pendulum swing. However, when you see that domination in print, its ludicrous to say liberals and democrats are screwing up the country. The pendulum is about to swing again.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Hoss on July 28, 2016, 07:26:32 am
Back to your 3rd grade political analyses I see. There was a world before you came and one that will succeed you. When I was in the third grade (1950's) I was stunned to find out that FDR wasn't elected by voice vote, he was so popular. Then, in the fifties Ike was so popular that Dems nearly faded away. The sixties saw the transformation of the Democratic party and the Goldwater election nearly killed the republican party. The result was the rebirth of a new republican party led by conservatives and Reagan. Each generation began to think that their period of time defined their party. The parties mutate, the strategies change. So, you make erroneous statements and draw meaningless conclusions from them.

The domination of local, state and Congressional positions by evangelicals and conservatives, along with re-districting,  has been a pretty successful attempt to slow that pendulum swing. However, when you see that domination in print, its ludicrous to say liberals and democrats are screwing up the country. The pendulum is about to swing again.

And since the Republicans are the party of the evangelicals, I expect it.  Millennials are leaving the church in droves, and I can't say that I blame them.  Younger adults have been 'brainwashed' (that's an Inhofe term) by book lernin' and science.

How dare they teach kids that the Earth isn't 6,000 years old!


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: erfalf on July 28, 2016, 07:46:30 am
Back to your 3rd grade political analyses I see. There was a world before you came and one that will succeed you. When I was in the third grade (1950's) I was stunned to find out that FDR wasn't elected by voice vote, he was so popular. Then, in the fifties Ike was so popular that Dems nearly faded away. The sixties saw the transformation of the Democratic party and the Goldwater election nearly killed the republican party. The result was the rebirth of a new republican party led by conservatives and Reagan. Each generation began to think that their period of time defined their party. The parties mutate, the strategies change. So, you make erroneous statements and draw meaningless conclusions from them.

The domination of local, state and Congressional positions by evangelicals and conservatives, along with re-districting,  has been a pretty successful attempt to slow that pendulum swing. However, when you see that domination in print, its ludicrous to say liberals and democrats are screwing up the country. The pendulum is about to swing again.

Since 51, Republicans have controlled the house for 20 out of 68 years. There were 40 straight years of Dem control from 55 to 95. Senate is pretty similar. While my conclusion may be wrong (argumentative), my understanding of history is just fine. What I said was it is unusual point in time. The last 20 years are unusual in that a majority of it has been under Republican Congress, which in fact is unusual in modern politics.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: erfalf on July 28, 2016, 07:48:41 am
A visual. Obviously after the Civil War Republicans held pretty tight control for some time, for obvious reasons.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Combined--Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png)


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: AquaMan on July 28, 2016, 08:13:46 am
Since 51, Republicans have controlled the house for 20 out of 68 years. There were 40 straight years of Dem control from 55 to 95. Senate is pretty similar. While my conclusion may be wrong (argumentative), my understanding of history is just fine. What I said was it is unusual point in time. The last 20 years are unusual in that a majority of it has been under Republican Congress, which in fact is unusual in modern politics.


See, that's the thing. You're good with numbers but you miss the interpretation. My guess is you do stats for someone else who does that job. It seems you were able to totally bypass my analysis in favor of insisting that Democrats have dominated our history, then chose a specific time period to back up that assertion. That's a partisan tactic. Why didn't you go back to TR, Hoover, Lincoln, or the Whigs? Because you're hung up on parties. Specifically defending your party. Our team! Rah, Rah! That's like saying football is OSU and everyone else is the enemy.

Hoss, Heiro, Conan, Cannon, myself and a lot others around here see a bigger picture. We support our way of governing and the continuation of our country. We differ on details but not that much really. I was a Bernie supporter (an independent in Congress, a socialist by philosophy), though if I had seen more of Bloomberg I might have supported him. Yet, I am a Democrat by political registration.

The south was solid Democrat till Nixon (and by the way, the real divisive president). Reagan was a conservative Republican....for his times. Today he is not. Republicans in the nineties used Kennedy as a reference point for their policies. So, to make point that Democrats have dominated our history and are now merely whiners that the worm has turned is specious and frankly, sophomoric.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: erfalf on July 28, 2016, 08:32:28 am
See, that's the thing. You're good with numbers but you miss the interpretation. My guess is you do stats for someone else who does that job. It seems you were able to totally bypass my analysis in favor of insisting that Democrats have dominated our history, then chose a specific time period to back up that assertion. That's a partisan tactic. Why didn't you go back to TR, Hoover, Lincoln, or the Whigs? Because you're hung up on parties. Specifically defending your party. Our team! Rah, Rah! That's like saying football is OSU and everyone else is the enemy.

Hoss, Heiro, Conan, Cannon, myself and a lot others around here see a bigger picture. We support our way of governing and the continuation of our country. We differ on details but not that much really. I was a Bernie supporter (an independent in Congress, a socialist by philosophy), though if I had seen more of Bloomberg I might have supported him. Yet, I am a Democrat by political registration.

The south was solid Democrat till Nixon (and by the way, the real divisive president). Reagan was a conservative Republican....for his times. Today he is not. Republicans in the nineties used Kennedy as a reference point for their policies. So, to make point that Democrats have dominated our history and are now merely whiners that the worm has turned is specious and frankly, sophomoric.

The question was, which party is winning, so yes I am going to discuss parties. Seriously. I'm not rooting for one or the other (no where in those posts did I even insinuate that). But you know my leanings so you attach me based on things I wasn't even arguing.

Your comments above had little to do with the point I was trying to make. Heck my point even flew in the face of the point you were making in that each generation thinks it defines all of time. I made the point that this point in time seems to fly in the face of history.

And I only picked a point in time (1950) for two reason. Because you did, and because it seemed to be a turning point in history (really it was more like 1933 but hey, that would only go to bolster my point more). Now, that being said, 1995 may have been a turning point. Only history (which hasn't happened yet) will be able to show.

Are you really calling my comments talking about the "fresh-manic" (made up word) tactics of politicians "sophomoric". Come on that's rich. They have acted like children for far less.



Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on July 28, 2016, 10:47:28 am
This is an unusual time in history for sure. Democrats have historically had a virtual monopoly on politics in this country. I find it funny that now that there has been some opposition provided (and then some obviously according to this data) that Democrats seem to be the ones always spouting about fairness and equality (fairness doctrine and such). Kind of like when little brother finally grows up and starts putting a beat down on big brother. "Hey, that's not fair".


True.

See - this is exactly one of those things about a thinking nature (yours) I commented on in the other post!!


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Conan71 on July 28, 2016, 11:12:47 am
If the OP is referring to the Kleptocratic way of life in Washington, I’d say both parties are winning.  Handsomely.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on July 28, 2016, 01:18:48 pm
Since 51, Republicans have controlled the house for 20 out of 68 years. There were 40 straight years of Dem control from 55 to 95. Senate is pretty similar. While my conclusion may be wrong (argumentative), my understanding of history is just fine. What I said was it is unusual point in time. The last 20 years are unusual in that a majority of it has been under Republican Congress, which in fact is unusual in modern politics.




If you look at the overall picture of how the country did as a whole during that time, or ANY of the times in the past, when the Democrats have predominately had controlling numbers, the country has done better both economically and socially - more progress on more fronts for more people.  When Republicans have predominately had controlling numbers, the country has done less both economically and socially. 



Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: AquaMan on July 28, 2016, 01:42:33 pm
The question was, which party is winning, so yes I am going to discuss parties. Seriously. I'm not rooting for one or the other (no where in those posts did I even insinuate that). But you know my leanings so you attach me based on things I wasn't even arguing.

Your comments above had little to do with the point I was trying to make. Heck my point even flew in the face of the point you were making in that each generation thinks it defines all of time. I made the point that this point in time seems to fly in the face of history.

And I only picked a point in time (1950) for two reason. Because you did, and because it seemed to be a turning point in history (really it was more like 1933 but hey, that would only go to bolster my point more). Now, that being said, 1995 may have been a turning point. Only history (which hasn't happened yet) will be able to show.

Are you really calling my comments talking about the "fresh-manic" (made up word) tactics of politicians "sophomoric". Come on that's rich. They have acted like children for far less.


This isn't the only thread you're posting on. Your posts clearly show your bias. And its hard not to refer to them here. No problem there but face it. You're no Democrat.

Here is your time frame, "Democrats have historically had a virtual monopoly on politics in this country". Historically would mean since its beginning. Your graph started at 1855. Which is 160 years. The Senate was nearly even with Republicans 82 of those years. The house was less at 72. Either way no real dominance. You chose 1950 (even though I referenced the fifties) because your argument fails if you choose to honor your time frame.

But the real devil is in the details which aren't apparent. A divided executive and legislative branch often is stalemated. Even when all branches are republican or democrat, the process binds up due to regional differences in party personality. Hence, Southern Democrats bolted the party when LBJ pushed through civil rights. Many people still register as Dems who haven't voted that way in decades.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Hoss on July 28, 2016, 01:46:51 pm
This isn't the only thread you're posting on. Your posts clearly show your bias. And its hard not to refer to them here. No problem there but face it. You're no Democrat.

Here is your time frame, "Democrats have historically had a virtual monopoly on politics in this country". Historically would mean since its beginning. Your graph started at 1855. Which is 160 years. The Senate was nearly even with Republicans 82 of those years. The house was less at 72. Either way no real dominance. You chose 1950 (even though I referenced the fifties) because your argument fails if you choose to honor your time frame.

But the real devil is in the details which aren't apparent. A divided executive and legislative branch often is stalemated. Even when all branches are republican or democrat, the process binds up due to regional differences in party personality. Hence, Southern Democrats bolted the party when LBJ pushed through civil rights. Many people still register as Dems who haven't voted that way in decades.

A little on topic but deviating...regarding LBJ and the Dixiecrats, HBO's "All The Way" was an excellent docudrama.  Bryan Cranston nailed LBJ, mannerisms and all.  And he wasn't over the top I think.  It got him an Emmy nod.

OK, merging the thread back on topic... :)


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on July 28, 2016, 01:49:56 pm
A little on topic but deviating...regarding LBJ and the Dixiecrats, HBO's "All The Way" was an excellent docudrama.  Bryan Cranston nailed LBJ, mannerisms and all.  And he wasn't over the top I think.  It got him an Emmy nod.

OK, merging the thread back on topic... :)



I didn't see it, but I would bet that not only was he not over the top, but he had to rein it in!





Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Conan71 on July 28, 2016, 02:54:59 pm
A little on topic but deviating...regarding LBJ and the Dixiecrats, HBO's "All The Way" was an excellent docudrama.  Bryan Cranston nailed LBJ, mannerisms and all.  And he wasn't over the top I think.  It got him an Emmy nod.

OK, merging the thread back on topic... :)

+1.  Best flick I’ve seen this year.  Almost haunting how well he played LBJ.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Hoss on July 28, 2016, 03:29:20 pm
+1.  Best flick I’ve seen this year.  Almost haunting how well he played LBJ.

Too bad they miscast Dr. King.  I like Anthony Mackie, but I kept seeing Falcon every time he was on screen...


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on July 28, 2016, 04:38:57 pm
If one gets a chance to listen to some of his recordings from time in the Oval Office, you can get a little sense of how he operated.  Very smooth.  Very rough.  Very blunt.  Brutal at times.  And VERY effective!



Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Conan71 on July 28, 2016, 05:26:56 pm
If one gets a chance to listen to some of his recordings from time in the Oval Office, you can get a little sense of how he operated.  Very smooth.  Very rough.  Very blunt.  Brutal at times.  And VERY effective!



Near the beginning of the movie, they actually worked in this riff only it was portrayed as having a tailor fitting him in the Oval Office.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR_myjOr0OU


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: RecycleMichael on July 28, 2016, 07:02:17 pm
I must say that I am never disappointed in the ability of posters on TulsaNow to stray away from the topic.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on July 29, 2016, 09:38:34 am
I must say that I am never disappointed in the ability of posters on TulsaNow to stray away from the topic.



It's an interesting small detour into what was a very definitive turning point in our history.  Shows how people that really don't necessarily WANT to be involved in a war can get sucked in at these inflection points in spite of.

Not the pants, but the LBJ era deeply affected our Dem/Rep relationships for a long time.   LBJ expressed great frustration that the dam war was taking both attention and resources away from what he really wanted to do and be remembered for.



Edit;

First 18 seconds of this shows how far we have come as a country.  Not advanced, just come....   And further on, the song references a father who was a tailor man... Maybe LBJ's tailor..!!




Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: AquaMan on August 04, 2016, 09:19:34 am
Incredible! Silver is showing Clinton ahead on all three polls.

     Polls Only- Clinton 77.7%.....Trump 22.3%
     Polls Plus-             72.6%....           27.4%
     Now Cast-             91.6%....           8.4%

Of course these are popular vote polls. The electoral vote follows it though. Of most interest is Colorado, Iowa and Ohio all appear bluish.

If the election were held today, this is a 364 to 173 electoral beat down. At best a 310 to 227 beat down.

The Big 12 is still red, SEC is pink and red with Wyoming, Oklahoma and Alabama in the lead.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Hoss on August 04, 2016, 09:26:20 am
Incredible! Silver is showing Clinton ahead on all three polls.

     Polls Only- Clinton 77.7%.....Trump 22.3%
     Polls Plus-             72.6%....           27.4%
     Now Cast-             91.6%....           8.4%

Of course these are popular vote polls. The electoral vote follows it though. Of most interest is Colorado, Iowa and Ohio all appear bluish.

If the election were held today, this is a 364 to 173 electoral beat down. At best a 310 to 227 beat down.

The Big 12 is still red, SEC is pink and red with Wyoming, Oklahoma and Alabama in the lead.

I've been reading that new swing states could include Utah and Georgia.  Utah!  pancakes?  Georgia?  Wow.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: AquaMan on August 04, 2016, 09:38:40 am
I should note that these polls represent their chances of winning. The polls themselves for each state vary. For instance she has an 80% chance of winning Colorado but the margin will be around plus 6.8%.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on August 04, 2016, 11:56:41 am
I should note that these polls represent their chances of winning. The polls themselves for each state vary. For instance she has an 80% chance of winning Colorado but the margin will be around plus 6.8%.


It's all BS until the voting is done.  Nixon thought he had Cook County over Kennedy until all the dead votes were tallied.


Not "Deadheads" - actual dead people...


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Ed W on August 04, 2016, 06:17:11 pm
Actually, Nate Silver and 538 have been remarkably accurate at predictions. He covers the methodology at length. It's riveting stuff for statistics wonks.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Hoss on August 04, 2016, 06:23:01 pm
Actually, Nate Silver and 538 have been remarkably accurate at predictions. He covers the methodology at length. It's riveting stuff for statistics wonks.

Expect him to be a target of ol' Cheeto Dust soon...


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Conan71 on August 04, 2016, 10:36:38 pm
Expect him to be a target of ol' Cheeto Dust soon...

Yep, just a Hilarity co-conspirator, according to Drumpf.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: Ed W on August 05, 2016, 08:23:37 am
Expect him to be a target of ol' Cheeto Dust soon...

He's already claiming the polls are biased against him. Yet when he was dominating the Republican contenders in the primaries and the polls reflected this, he happily pointed that out.


Title: Re: Which political party is winning?
Post by: patric on August 05, 2016, 09:16:34 am
He's already claiming the polls are biased against him. Yet when he was dominating the Republican contenders in the primaries and the polls reflected this, he happily pointed that out.


"Now here's the amazing thing. Over there where that plane landed, top secret, they don't have a lot of paparazzi, you know the paparazzi doesn't do so well over there, right, and they have a perfect tape done by obviously a government camera, and the tape is of the people taking the money off the plane, right," Trump continued. "That means in order to embarrass us further Iran sent us the tapes, right. It's a military tape. It's a tape that was a perfect angle, nice and steady. Nobody getting nervous because they are going to be shot, because they are shooting a picture of money pouring off of plane."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fact-check-donald-trump-see-money-pouring-off-a-plane-in-iran