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Not At My Table - Political Discussions => National & International Politics => Topic started by: swake on May 05, 2015, 04:05:11 pm



Title: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: swake on May 05, 2015, 04:05:11 pm
Freightliner reveals street legal automated truck. For now a person is required to monitor the truck, but this is the end quickly approaching for millions of jobs.


http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/freightliner-just-revealed-the-first-real-road-legal-au-1702382986/+AnnaleeNewitz


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck drive jobs just put on the clock
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on May 05, 2015, 04:23:50 pm
That has effectively been available for about 175 years.  It's a train....

Just exactly what we need....   Blech!!



Title: Re: 3.5 million truck drive jobs just put on the clock
Post by: swake on May 05, 2015, 04:38:35 pm
That has effectively been available for about 175 years.  It's a train....

Just exactly what we need....   Blech!!



In less than five years you will see fully automated electric trucks with solar panels on the roof and tesla batteries, no driver, no fuel, no emissions. Cheaper to run and can go 24 hours a day, every day. 


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck drive jobs just put on the clock
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on May 05, 2015, 06:31:59 pm
In less than five years you will see fully automated electric trucks with solar panels on the roof and tesla batteries, no driver, no fuel, no emissions. Cheaper to run and can go 24 hours a day, every day.  


Guess I'll have to stay off the highways at that point.  I sure wouldn't trust the electronics for that application.  It will fail.  At the worst possible time.






Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: dbacksfan 2.0 on May 05, 2015, 07:10:33 pm
So who will stop and put the chains on these things when they drive through the mountain passes in the winter?


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on May 06, 2015, 07:36:09 am
So who will stop and put the chains on these things when they drive through the mountain passes in the winter?


They are autonomous...they can do it themselves...



Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: AquaMan on May 06, 2015, 08:37:53 am
I doubt the infrastructure will ha e improved enough in five years to allow widespread usage. But short dedicated routes possible.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on May 06, 2015, 08:46:31 am
I doubt the infrastructure will ha e improved enough in five years to allow widespread usage. But short dedicated routes possible.


Which would lead to the acquisition/construction of "private" highways/right of ways.  At which point, we are back to trains.  Only 400 times less cost effective.


This is a very cool electronics project that I would love to work on - am skeptical it could ever overcome the risk perceptions.  Yeah, I know....probably better than a "speed-freak" trying to make up 1600 miles at 85 mph after sitting in the casino for two days...  (Cocaine, amphetamines, and caffeine will always overcome the wasting of time in a casino!)



Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: dbacksfan 2.0 on May 06, 2015, 10:02:08 am
First time one hits black ice and wipes out a family in a mini van it's all over.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: AquaMan on May 06, 2015, 10:08:49 am
Lots of variables and problems to solve. The fleet where I work is part diesel, part cng fuels.  Some old reliable diesels and some new high tech computerized diesels. The CNg and computerized diesels have the most down time. They require specific training by mechanics. The manufacturers are under pressure to cheapen the vehicle cost and they do that by reducing staff, increasing work load and cheapening components. Nasty combination.

Then there's the whole lane changing thing.


Title: Re:
Post by: Ed W on May 06, 2015, 10:11:57 am
Commercial aircraft are pretty much autonomous already but the FAA's pesky regulations insist on having two humans on the flight deck as backups. Consider how much money could be saved by eliminating those regulations and the superfluous jobs. Sure, an occasional aircraft would go down in the Hudson but that's negligible in a cost/benefit analysis. I'm sure Sen Infofe would be on board for this one since he'd obviously benefit from such automation.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: AquaMan on May 06, 2015, 10:14:54 am
Can we still tailgate these autonomous vehicles and cut in front of them or will they pack up together like wagon trains and disable our map software?


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: dbacksfan 2.0 on May 06, 2015, 10:22:19 am
Can we still tailgate these autonomous vehicles and cut in front of them or will they pack up together like wagon trains and disable our map software?

You won't be able to cut in front of them, they'll just be a giant conga line that will stretch the 300 miles from Redding CA to Eugene OR through all the mountain passes, and then another continuous line all the way to Vancouver BC. All running at less than 30mph on I-5.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: Breadburner on May 06, 2015, 12:36:31 pm
How are the Lot Lizards at the truck stops going to make a living......More than just the wheel holders jobs are on the line.....!!!!!


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: cannon_fodder on May 06, 2015, 12:44:48 pm
Something new, same fears:

When steamships began running up rivers, the barges towed along canals by mule teams protested loudly that they were unsafe and that it would cost too many jobs. Powered Barges are the norm and the canals are now recreational areas.

When the first oil pipeline came online in Pennsylvania the locals cried "danger" and the teamsters feared losing their jobs, they actually blew the pipeline up a couple of times. Now it is taken for granted that pipeline is the most efficient and safest way to transport oil. Teamsters found other ways to make a living.

When elevators were first automated they were decried as unsafe and job killers: without a person on board to safely stop the elevator at the proper place, disaster would ensue!  And thousands of elevator operators would be out of jobs (still required in some countries).

When trains switched to automatic brakes the railroad unions complained that it would be unsafe and cost tons of jobs for brakemen. It is now taken for granted that automated brakes are far, far safer and trains are more efficient with smaller crews.

When service stations switched from full service only to self service (still required in some states)...

When people were allowed to dial phone numbers for themselves instead of through an operators switch...

When airlines went from fully manual controls to partially automated to fly by wire...

When auto nav was put on ocean going vessels...

Hell, people made the same arguments against all sorts of mechanization.  There will be a transition period (automated trucks for point to point over the road, then to local delivery stations, etc.), and then many, many trucking jobs probably will fade away. Drastically increasing safety and efficiency. There will probably be set backs along the way (safety mishaps, labor disputes, politics), but ultimate, the Luddites will lose and the progress will march on.


Title: Re:
Post by: swake on May 06, 2015, 12:57:50 pm
Commercial aircraft are pretty much autonomous already but the FAA's pesky regulations insist on having two humans on the flight deck as backups. Consider how much money could be saved by eliminating those regulations and the superfluous jobs. Sure, an occasional aircraft would go down in the Hudson but that's negligible in a cost/benefit analysis. I'm sure Sen Infofe would be on board for this one since he'd obviously benefit from such automation.

Most of our recent plane crashes have been due to the humans on board, not the computers doing most of the flying. Trains too.

Traction control features in cars today already react better to loss of control problems than humans do. Give that the system control of steering along with wheel spin with the ability to see objects and terrain and a computer would do far better than a human ever could hope to. 


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on May 06, 2015, 01:15:21 pm
Something new, same fears:
.
.
.

Hell, people made the same arguments against all sorts of mechanization.  There will be a transition period (automated trucks for point to point over the road, then to local delivery stations, etc.), and then many, many trucking jobs probably will fade away. Drastically increasing safety and efficiency. There will probably be set backs along the way (safety mishaps, labor disputes, politics), but ultimate, the Luddites will lose and the progress will march on.



This becomes a 'public transit' system.  For freight.  Could also do it for humans.  Again, back to being a train...rail, or monorail, or shuttle, or same thing by another name.  We have a road infrastructure - now just have to get the human activated vehicles out of the loop so the automated stuff can use the infrastructure more efficiently.  All those old guys with self-image issues would no longer get to drive their Corvettes, etc without refit as 'modern' vehicles to fit into the automated world....

Wonder why we don't/won't?


I think it will take much longer than any of us would imagine to reach this point.  Would require large areas for parking at a hub area for people to park and get onto the central core transportation system...and acceptance by many....  Oh, wait...weren't we just talking about that for Cherry St, downtown, and Brookside...??   If I drive in to town from Bugtussle, need a place to get onto the "Loop"....

It's a great concept that may never actually happen.



Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: swake on May 06, 2015, 01:26:01 pm

This becomes a 'public transit' system.  For freight.  Could also do it for humans.  Again, back to being a train...rail, or monorail, or shuttle, or same thing by another name.  We have a road infrastructure - now just have to get the human activated vehicles out of the loop so the automated stuff can use the infrastructure more efficiently.  All those old guys with self-image issues would no longer get to drive their Corvettes, etc without refit as 'modern' vehicles to fit into the automated world....

Wonder why we don't/won't?


I think it will take much longer than any of us would imagine to reach this point.  Would require large areas for parking at a hub area for people to park and get onto the central core transportation system...and acceptance by many....  Oh, wait...weren't we just talking about that for Cherry St, downtown, and Brookside...??   If I drive in to town from Bugtussle, need a place to get onto the "Loop"....

It's a great concept that may never actually happen.



There’s no waiting, these trucks are in use NOW. These new automated vehicles can easily intermix with non-automated vehicles, they don’t need to work in concert. These cars and trucks can “see” in 360 degrees around them watching all nearby vehicles at the same time. The computer knows the road conditions under it, the traffic conditions of the roads ahead, the speed and direction of all nearby cars and it is never distracted. It can read street signs and street signals and it always knows where it is and where it is going.  It doesn’t need light, it’s never blinded by the sun and it never gets a phone call.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: Conan71 on May 06, 2015, 02:37:43 pm
Quote
The Freightliner “Inspiration Truck” will be the first autonomous commercial truck to drive on American roads. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval and Daimler Chairman Wolfgang Bernhard just bolted on its Autonomous Vehicle license plate to prove it’s the real deal, and it’s already been spotted in action.

Freightliner Just Revealed The First Real Road-Legal Autonomous Big Rig

Big rigs might seem a little old-school in an era where everything travels by carrier drone– oh wait, it doesn’t. The American Trucking Associations says trucks moved 68.5 percent of all domestic freight tonnage in 2012 and Bernhard thinks current road freight volumes will triple by 2050.

In a Q&A session going on right now, Bernhard has explained that the Inspiration Truck will still have a driver, but that person’s purpose will be solely to monitor the truck’s systems and intervene in the event of a malfunction.

The truck requires no special hypothetical infrastructure, and it’s able to read road signs and traffic signals on its own.

Freightliner has not revealed anything about the truck’s power, efficiency, economics, or a long-term production scheme but the Inspiration Truck will allegedly be revealed in more detail May 5th at 11PM EST and demonstrated on the road the following day. The company’s Twitter page and #inspirationtruck has been blowing up with updates.

I think you might be jumping the gun a little.  This is still very much in a concept stage.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: AquaMan on May 06, 2015, 07:56:02 pm
I could see eliminating Danica Patrick as well. Why use inneficient, slow thinking, humans in the Indy? Garbage men, bus drivers, Uber drivers. All unnecessary. Then the final solution....replicators and transponders.  Their takin' er jibs!

Still, five years is pretty quick.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: swake on May 06, 2015, 08:20:36 pm
I didn't say all trucks will be there in five years, I said that you will see fully automated electric trucks within five years, as in, some trucks being like that. But what is the average lifespan of a big rig?

Within five years those kinds of trucks will be available, and within 10-12 years? Yeah, basically all delivery trucks/cars will be replaced and millions of taxi/uber drivers, delivery truck drivers, long haul drivers will be displaced.  All those jobs will be gone in a decade or a little more. 

The coming crisis is going to be what to do with people when a huge percentage of our jobs today will be automated. And I mean 40-50% or more.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: TheArtist on May 07, 2015, 07:52:21 am
What do you do in a world where automation and technology allow things to cost less and less, and more and more people can have all they truly need and more.  Many are drowning in "stuff"? 

In the future the economy is going to be more "experience" driven.  You will be marketing and selling experiences, and the means to build and create those experiences.  Buying, selling and having more "things" will become less and less important. I am in retail, but I realize that I will need to transition more to selling an experience and entertainment (and building up my entertainment content/stories). Dining, movies, even cities themselves will compete in this new market.  The future is basically Disney World, and even our city will be competing in that vein with other cities.

(Barring WWIII and or the Rapture)


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: Conan71 on May 07, 2015, 09:44:19 am
I didn't say all trucks will be there in five years, I said that you will see fully automated electric trucks within five years, as in, some trucks being like that. But what is the average lifespan of a big rig?

Within five years those kinds of trucks will be available, and within 10-12 years? Yeah, basically all delivery trucks/cars will be replaced and millions of taxi/uber drivers, delivery truck drivers, long haul drivers will be displaced.  All those jobs will be gone in a decade or a little more. 

The coming crisis is going to be what to do with people when a huge percentage of our jobs today will be automated. And I mean 40-50% or more.

According to Freighliner, the trucks still require an on-board operator even in automated mode, just like an air liner.  There may be short local routes where you could have driverless delivery but I seriously doubt long haul will ever operate without drivers.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: Townsend on May 07, 2015, 11:58:28 am
He's probably for it:

(http://sourcefed.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Tracy-Morgan.jpg)


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: Breadburner on May 07, 2015, 05:07:17 pm
I could see eliminating Danica Patrick as well. Why use inneficient, slow thinking, humans in the Indy? Garbage men, bus drivers, Uber drivers. All unnecessary. Then the final solution....replicators and transponders.  Their takin' er jibs!

Still, five years is pretty quick.

She should be....One of the worst drivers in the history of NAPCAR......


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: AquaMan on May 07, 2015, 06:36:17 pm
Some other predictions that didn't quite materialize......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurama_(New_York_World%27s_Fair)
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2492617/it-management/tech-predictions-gone-wrong.html

Bill Gates was probably right about the tablet but off by about a decade.


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: rebound on May 08, 2015, 08:04:34 am
What do you do in a world where automation and technology allow things to cost less and less, and more and more people can have all they truly need and more.  Many are drowning in "stuff"? 

In the future the economy is going to be more "experience" driven.  You will be marketing and selling experiences, and the means to build and create those experiences.  Buying, selling and having more "things" will become less and less important. I am in retail, but I realize that I will need to transition more to selling an experience and entertainment (and building up my entertainment content/stories). Dining, movies, even cities themselves will compete in this new market.  The future is basically Disney World, and even our city will be competing in that vein with other cities.

(Barring WWIII and or the Rapture)

We'll get there,  someday...

"This is the 24th century. Material needs no longer exist.   The challenge ... is to improve yourself. To enrich yourself. Enjoy it."
 - Captain Jean-Luc Picard


Title: Re: 3.5 million truck driving jobs just put on the clock
Post by: Townsend on May 08, 2015, 11:35:18 am
We'll get there,  someday...

"This is the 24th century. Material needs no longer exist.   The challenge ... is to improve yourself. To enrich yourself. Enjoy it."
 - Captain Jean-Luc Picard

First we have to destroy civilization, develop warp tech and use it to send out a flair to a benevolent alien race who fixes all that is wrong with us.   (tea party, reality television, etc)