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Title: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on October 23, 2012, 11:32:48 am Can we have a thread that is only guesses about the results and absent of commentary? I doubt it.
I want to have each of us make a guess of the final outcome of the Electoral College for the 2012 presidential election. Guesses must be in before midnight on Monday November 5th. Winner gets choice of a six pack of Marshall's beer or a free lunch at choice of downtown restaurant. My guess: Obama 294 Romney 244 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: dioscorides on October 23, 2012, 11:41:11 am I am going out on a limb, and guessing that Obama takes Virginia.
Obama 303 Romney 235 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on October 23, 2012, 11:47:48 am I think the state level trends over the past few days are favorable to Obama, but I'm sticking with my earlier 290 forecast. I wouldn't be shocked to see 300-330, but I don't think it's likely Obama hold Virginia and flips Florida back, even given the numbers in the snap polls last night, which were very favorable among Hispanic voters and women.
While Romney still has an outside chance, I think his window of opportunity is closing fast. Opinion just seems very hard to shift lately, and present polling has Obama winning. So: Obama 290 Romney 248 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: carltonplace on October 23, 2012, 02:54:21 pm Obama: 281
Romney: 257 I'm giving VA to Republicans. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Conan71 on October 23, 2012, 03:14:21 pm I'm giving VA to Republicans. How nice of you. Can we have a unicorn too? Please? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 23, 2012, 03:20:10 pm 314 Obama
256 Romney Maybe; 315 Obama 255 Romney Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on October 23, 2012, 03:30:32 pm How nice of you. Can we have a unicorn too? Please? Only if Romney wins Ohio and Wisconsin. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Hoss on October 23, 2012, 03:31:14 pm How nice of you. Can we have a unicorn too? Please? I thought you were Independent? :o Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 23, 2012, 03:32:16 pm I want a unicorn!!
Or at least a Clydesale...start of my own beer company.... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on October 23, 2012, 07:12:28 pm I knew that there was no chance to keep this thread all guesses. Oh well.
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Teatownclown on October 23, 2012, 07:21:51 pm I have said 311 for BamBam.... I don't really care how few RMoney gets....
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 23, 2012, 08:21:27 pm I knew that there was no chance to keep this thread all guesses. Oh well. Still at; 315 Obama 255 Romney I made guesses....two of them! And I was serious about them. (OMG!!...do you realize just how hard it is not to commentary?) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: carltonplace on October 24, 2012, 07:39:50 am How nice of you. Can we have a unicorn too? Please? Colorado is as good as a unicorn Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Conan71 on October 24, 2012, 12:49:06 pm Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on October 24, 2012, 12:51:51 pm Doesn't any republican have a guess?
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Conan71 on October 24, 2012, 12:56:03 pm Still at; 315 Obama 255 Romney I made guesses....two of them! And I was serious about them. (OMG!!...do you realize just how hard it is not to commentary?) You do realize there are NOT 570 electoral votes in play, right? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Townsend on October 24, 2012, 12:59:33 pm You do realize there are NOT 570 electoral votes in play, right? Not for conservatives, no. We had a meeting. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 24, 2012, 03:46:35 pm You do realize there are NOT 570 electoral votes in play, right? Yeah...538. I even used the calculator, then typed it out wrong. Several times. Not sure where that came from? Doesn't even go with mild dyslexia... One of those inexplicable artifacts of getting old. I'll guess Mitt gets the rest after 315. That should make it better - or 223, whichever comes first.... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: TulsaRufnex on October 24, 2012, 05:29:30 pm Obama 294 Mitt 244 (dang, same as RM)
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on November 05, 2012, 12:59:33 pm Can we have a thread that is only guesses about the results and absent of commentary? I doubt it. I want to have each of us make a guess of the final outcome of the Electoral College for the 2012 presidential election. Guesses must be in before midnight on Monday November 5th. Winner gets choice of a six pack of Marshall's beer or a free lunch at choice of downtown restaurant. My guess: Obama 294 Romney 244 Enter your guess by midnight tonight and win valuable prizes and the admiration of all the rest of us. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: swake on November 05, 2012, 01:19:45 pm I'm going say Obama 303 to Romney 235
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: carltonplace on November 05, 2012, 01:22:05 pm Obama: 281
Romney: 257 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Gaspar on November 05, 2012, 01:23:55 pm Romney 315
Obama 223 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 05, 2012, 02:04:30 pm Romney 315 Obama 223 Are you guessing the same as me?? How weird is that....? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on November 05, 2012, 02:17:26 pm Are you guessing the same as me?? How weird is that....? The numbers are the same, just for different candidates. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on November 05, 2012, 02:30:36 pm Are you guessing the same as me?? How weird is that....? Someone spends a bit too much time at unskewedpolls.com. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Gaspar on November 05, 2012, 02:30:46 pm Last minute push.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOSdTB9Hpts[/youtube] Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Hoss on November 05, 2012, 02:36:16 pm Someone spends a bit too much time at unskewedpolls.com. Kinda found it funny about how in 2010 the RWers thought Nate was pretty accurate...given that he was. When it doesn't look like it's going their way, they jump all over him. Not surprising however. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on November 05, 2012, 02:46:02 pm Kinda found it funny about how in 2010 the RWers thought Nate was pretty accurate...given that he was. When it doesn't look like it's going their way, they jump all over him. I suspect it has something to do with the persecution complex that runs rampant among certain, largely overlapping, groups in this country. The aftermath of this election will be interesting if Obama wins if those crosstabs hold up and it turns out that women and minorities reelect the President despite a supermajority of white male opposition. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 05, 2012, 03:10:26 pm The numbers are the same, just for different candidates. Vertical dyslexia.... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 05, 2012, 03:12:46 pm Someone spends a bit too much time at unskewedpolls.com. They are saying 311 - 227 in their latest... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: YoungTulsan on November 05, 2012, 03:17:51 pm Make your own map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html My guess: (http://imageshack.us/a/img41/4011/rcpcustom.gif) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: BaltimorePoke on November 05, 2012, 03:46:43 pm I don't think Obama will lose Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia. So O: 303 - R: 235
Silver only has Florida as 55.5% Romney, so pretty much a toss up. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Teatownclown on November 05, 2012, 04:30:43 pm They are saying 311 - 227 in their latest... And there you have it TTC has said 311 all along. I've also used the word "landslide" ..... ;D :D :o :-* Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: swake on November 05, 2012, 04:48:10 pm And there you have it TTC has said 311 all along. I've also used the word "landslide" ..... ;D :D :o :-* I thought you would be going with 420 Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Gaspar on November 05, 2012, 04:49:45 pm I thought you would be going with 420 Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311? Campaigning at cemeteries? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: cannon_fodder on November 05, 2012, 04:55:06 pm The betting houses have Obama favored as low as a 67% favorite and as high as an 87% favorite. If you really think teak Romney wins you can make quick money trading futures on it.
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Teatownclown on November 05, 2012, 05:02:21 pm I thought you would be going with 420 Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311? I am...but only in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. Math. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Hoss on November 05, 2012, 08:33:07 pm I don't think Obama will lose Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia. So O: 303 - R: 235 Silver only has Florida as 55.5% Romney, so pretty much a toss up. He actually changed that tonight to Obama 52.5 for Florida, but I say 303 O - 235 R as well. I don't think it will be higher than that however... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on November 05, 2012, 09:39:27 pm He actually changed that tonight to Obama 52.5 for Florida, but I say 303 O - 235 R as well. I don't think it will be higher than that however... Note that the change isn't due to any new state polls coming in from Florida, but from the latest two national polls which came in at O+1 and O+2. Silver's model, unlike some others, adjusts the state polls to bring them more in line with national polling. When the state polling is basically dead even as it is in Florida, that adjustment can flip a state. PEC (http://"http://election.princeton.edu") just takes the median of state polling and builds an EV count and estimated national popular vote margin from there. Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Conan71 on November 06, 2012, 09:06:52 am Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset. Don't worry. I won't gloat. Not too much. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Oil Capital on November 06, 2012, 09:43:24 am Note that the change isn't due to any new state polls coming in from Florida, but from the latest two national polls which came in at O+1 and O+2. Silver's model, unlike some others, adjusts the state polls to bring them more in line with national polling. When the state polling is basically dead even as it is in Florida, that adjustment can flip a state. PEC (http://"http://election.princeton.edu") just takes the median of state polling and builds an EV count and estimated national popular vote margin from there. Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset. Doesn't the early voting turnout already suggest that a lot of the polls may have problems with their turnout models? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Townsend on November 06, 2012, 10:00:05 am [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtube_gdata_player[/youtube]
Wonder how that's working out for folks? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Conan71 on November 06, 2012, 10:02:09 am [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtube_gdata_player[/youtube] Wonder how that's working out for folks? I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Townsend on November 06, 2012, 10:06:05 am I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already. Or "They sure tried to steal the election. Gotta give 'em props. They really tried." Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on November 06, 2012, 10:08:41 am I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already. If this video is real (and I question that), then something is really wrong. Why would you not agree that Romney stole the election if this is true? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: DolfanBob on November 06, 2012, 10:10:32 am The Democrats don't have any I.T. guy's?
Damn those Republican made in the U.S.A. polling machines! Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Oil Capital on November 06, 2012, 10:17:56 am If this video is real (and I question that), then something is really wrong. Why would you not agree that Romney stole the election if this is true? I agree with your instinct that there is something fishy about that video and the accompanying text. First, he doesn't even bother to tell us where this took place. (We can guess from his name it is somewhere in central pennsylvania, but that's a big space and we don't really even know that. So it is impossible to do any follow up. Second, how did the story end? Are we really supposed to believe this guy who recorded and posted a video just cast his ballot for the candidate to who he is opposed and went on with his day? FWIW, there have been a number of reports of machines doing the same thing in the opposite direction as well. One in particular (I think in Colorado) was investigated and they discovered some screens were unduly sensitive. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Townsend on November 06, 2012, 10:18:18 am If this video is real (and I question that), then something is really wrong. Why would you not agree that Romney stole the election if this is true? This was the guy's posting comments: Quote My wife and I went to the voting booths this morning before work. There were 4 older ladies running the show and 3 voting booths that are similar to a science fair project in how they fold up. They had an oval VOTE logo on top center and a cartridge slot on the left that the volunteers used to start your ballot. I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney's name and started tapping very closely together to find the 'active areas'. From the top of Romney's button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama's name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein's button was fine. All other buttons worked fine. I asked the voters on either side of me if they had any problems and they reported they did not. I then called over a volunteer to have a look at it. She him hawed for a bit then calmly said "It's nothing to worry about, everything will be OK." and went back to what she was doing. I then recorded this video. There is a lot of speculation that the footage is edited. I'm not a video guy, but if it's possible to prove whether a video has been altered or not, I will GLADLY provide the raw footage to anyone who is willing to do so. The jumping frames are a result of the shitty camera app on my Android phone, nothing more. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Gaspar on November 06, 2012, 10:23:33 am Perhaps some are voting for revenge?
(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8345/8161450834_0c425f7d1d.jpg) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Hoss on November 06, 2012, 10:23:39 am I agree with your instinct that there is something fishy about that video and the accompanying text. First, he doesn't even bother to tell us where this took place. (We can guess from his name it is somewhere in central pennsylvania, but that's a big space and we don't really even know that. So it is impossible to do any follow up. Second, how did the story end? Are we really supposed to believe this guy who recorded and posted a video just cast his ballot for the candidate to who he is opposed and went on with his day? FWIW, there have been a number of reports of machines doing the same thing in the opposite direction as well. One in particular (I think in Colorado) was investigated and they discovered some screens were unduly sensitive. This is why I HATE touch-screen voting. I can't get my Android phone with a touch screen to do what I want. How can you expect those things to work right? Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Gaspar on November 06, 2012, 10:27:06 am Polling place in Philly.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7B5N9pCcAAWWjW.jpg) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: carltonplace on November 06, 2012, 11:19:31 am Polling place in Philly. (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7B5N9pCcAAWWjW.jpg) Yikes...electioneering. They need to take that down. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Oil Capital on November 06, 2012, 12:09:00 pm I may have missed the official noon deadline. Oh well.
Romney 315 Obama 223 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: erfalf on November 06, 2012, 12:54:01 pm Romney 311-227.
I wonder what the over-under on when the Presidential race will be finalized. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: erfalf on November 06, 2012, 12:54:47 pm And before you call me crazy, I present... Jim Cramer:
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/everyone-thinks-jim-cramers-election-prediction-crazy-pants-insane/58673/ Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Gaspar on November 06, 2012, 12:54:59 pm President Obama was just photographed outside a Philadelphia polling place.
(http://www.foldingchairwarehouse.com/Adobe.4.jpg) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: erfalf on November 06, 2012, 01:15:18 pm Wife listens to pop radio stations (ie not news/talk) and she told me it is a forgone conclusion that Obama is going to win. It's over. Calling it for Obama. Is that really what everyone thinks? or what everyone wants to think?
Edit: Their reasoning was that Obama was running away with the early polling. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on November 06, 2012, 01:31:58 pm Wife listens to pop radio stations (ie not news/talk) and she told me it is a forgone conclusion that Obama is going to win. It's over. Calling it for Obama. Is that really what everyone thinks? or what everyone wants to think? Edit: Their reasoning was that Obama was running away with the early polling. It is almost certain Obama will win. Even Rasmussen couldn't get Romney better than a tie in Ohio. +3 usually means a win, and that's where Obama sat in the average of final Ohio polls. As far as stupid touch screen video goes, stupid video is stupid. You don't flip votes by miscalibrating the touch screen on individual machines, you flip votes by messing with the tabulator. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Townsend on November 06, 2012, 01:33:09 pm you flip votes by messing with the tabulator. Bow chicka wow wow Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Townsend on November 06, 2012, 01:58:07 pm http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/06/machine-turns-vote-for-obama-into-one-for-romney/ (http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/06/machine-turns-vote-for-obama-into-one-for-romney/)
Quote A Pennsylvania electronic voting machine has been taken out of service after being captured on video changing a vote for President Obama into one for Mitt Romney, NBC News has confirmed. Republicans have also said machines have turned Romney votes into Obama ones. Maybe check the machines before voting starts... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Teatownclown on November 06, 2012, 02:16:41 pm I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already. Check this out! http://www.tulsanow.org/forum/index.php?topic=11244.msg257242#msg257242 Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: erfalf on November 06, 2012, 04:39:22 pm Polling place in Philly. (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7B5N9pCcAAWWjW.jpg) Took care of that one ::) (http://media.nbcnewyork.com/images/654*368/MURAL-COVERED2.gif) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: YoungTulsan on November 06, 2012, 10:11:41 pm If everything continues the same way it seems, O 319 R 219 is the number. Florida could get ugly, but it doesn't look like it will make a difference.
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on November 06, 2012, 10:19:11 pm NBC called Ohio for Obama, so it's over in their book.
Edited to add: And looking at where votes remain to be counted in Florida, it looks like Obama is going to win there by enough to avoid an automatic recount unless it's only the Republican precincts in Broward and Dade that remain to be counted. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: TulsaRufnex on November 06, 2012, 10:31:00 pm Fox "News" and Karl Rove just blamed the media... after they themselves called it for Obama. Oy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-green/what-will-fox-blame-when_b_2070620.html Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 06, 2012, 10:32:16 pm If everything continues the same way it seems, O 319 R 219 is the number. Florida could get ugly, but it doesn't look like it will make a difference. I think that means I called it the closest...315 to 223... Now all we have to worry about is the dissection of the Constitution, as in the Second Amendment.... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: GG on November 06, 2012, 11:30:26 pm [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A23snMkbZ1I[/youtube]
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Teatownclown on November 07, 2012, 12:18:33 am WOW! 332!
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Hoss on November 07, 2012, 12:24:28 am Romney 311-227. I wonder what the over-under on when the Presidential race will be finalized. You need to stop taking clairvoyancy classes from Gas. I think Nate Silver (oh, sorry...Nate "Freeking" Silver) is telling his right wing critics to suck it right about now. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: cynical on November 07, 2012, 12:59:14 am You need to stop taking clairvoyancy classes from Gas. I think Nate Silver (oh, sorry...Nate "Freeking" Silver) is telling his right wing critics to suck it right about now. Besides Obama and the American people, Nate Silver is a big winner tonight. And you know what? He knew that all along, because he always understood that oddsmaking is not the same thing as prophecy, but if it is based on real numbers, is important. It is reality. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: nathanm on November 07, 2012, 01:11:39 am The real losers? The unskewedpolls.com guy and his fellow doubters. ;D
Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Hoss on November 07, 2012, 01:15:20 am The real losers? The unskewedpolls.com guy and his fellow doubters. ;D Dick Morris' last tweet? 4 hours ago "#election2012 dont give up!" Bwahahahaha....sorry, channeling my inner Guido there.... Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: TulsaRufnex on November 07, 2012, 01:30:24 am Nate Silver is 49/50, just waiting on Florida...
(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2788993400/7e7db6a7e7e9d2b0228eacfc996583c3.jpeg) Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: Conan71 on November 07, 2012, 09:29:05 am I am going out on a limb, and guessing that Obama takes Virginia. Obama 303 Romney 235 If Florida falls to Romney, I believe dioscorides is the winner. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: swake on November 07, 2012, 11:31:00 am If Florida falls to Romney, I believe dioscorides is the winner. I had that guess too, but it's really not looking like Romney will get Florida. Obama is up by almost 50k votes. Looks like the final will be 332 to 206. Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: RecycleMichael on November 09, 2012, 09:11:48 am Still at; 315 Obama 255 Romney I made guesses....two of them! And I was serious about them. (OMG!!...do you realize just how hard it is not to commentary?) You are the winner. PM to arrange to collect your winnings! Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 10, 2012, 12:29:18 am You are the winner. PM to arrange to collect your winnings! You gotta be kidding... I haven't won anything since winning 3 company pools on Secretariat!! Guess it's about time, huh? Now if I could just figure out the right combination of numbers for the lottery.... Food....beer....food....beer....food...beer.... Beer IS food!! Decisions, decisions....well, I sent a note. Thanks! Title: Re: Electoral College results guessing game Post by: TulsaRufnex on November 28, 2012, 10:56:21 pm Obama's popular vote lead is now more than Bush '04:
2012 Total: Barack Obama Mitt Romney 65,082,214 (50.90%) 60,567,030 (47.37%) 2004 Total: George W. Bush John F. Kerry 62,040,610 (50.74%) 59,028,444 (48.27%) Hmmm. Poll bias? (http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/11047/large/Pollster_Bias.png?1354134421) |