Anyone else notice?
Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.
And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.
Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.
Any stats on where and who the homicides were last year to this year?
It's an interesting coincidence at the least. If half of the homicides were committed by illegal aliens last year, then certainly there's a positive result. However, if 85% of all homicides were committed by U.S. citizens, then it really doesn't have much to do with 1804.
I would wait until that data gets a little more solid before you start jumping to conclusions, because you are about to be called a racist by a bunch of people on here. I'm all for the data speaking for itself, but wait long enough for there to be a solid sample of data to draw those conclusions. Murder rates usually pick up when the weather gets warmer too.
One more thing, I just saw a flood of police cars shooting down I-44, and I hear ambulances. Sounds like something just happened nearby!
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle
Anyone else notice?
Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.
And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.
Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.
Correlation is not causation, I'm afraid.
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle
Anyone else notice?
Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.
And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.
Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.
You get to decide why the only reason the murder rate is going down? Do you know how many of the murders were committed by Hispanics or on Hispanics in past years or this year?
I am guessing no.
Maybe the murder rate in Tulsa is going down because of other factors. Maybe it has to do with the weather, or George Bush, or the Tulsa guy on American Idol.
If the crime stats were going up, I am sure you would blame no one but the Mayor. But if they go down, she would get no credit from you.
I wonder if it has anything to do with the marked decrease in the pirate population. Apparently that's what causes global warming.
(http://www.seanbonner.com/blog/archives/piratesarecool.jpg)
quote:
Originally posted by Gaspar
I wonder if it has anything to do with the marked decrease in the pirate population. Apparently that's what causes global warming.
(http://www.seanbonner.com/blog/archives/piratesarecool.jpg)
no, but it might have something to do with the huge increase in the number of smartasses.
Actually I do think there are some correlations with temperature and crime. In the mid and norther latitudes, the hotter it gets, the more crime. "apparently robbers and such dont like getting out in the cold any more than the rest of us"
quote:
Originally posted by TheArtist
Actually I do think there are some correlations with temperature and crime. In the mid and norther latitudes, the hotter it gets, the more crime. "apparently robbers and such dont like getting out in the cold any more than the rest of us"
I've also heard the same argument about cold forcing people to be inside, close to each other, creating more crime.
Take it however you wish. But, anyone have any other big changes which could explain this large result? I do know it wasn't more cops on the streets.
Weather doesn't do it either. It hasn't been much different than last year. And, pirating just isn't what it used to be. With GPS, gun rights along with the cost of eye patches and hook hands, the economic return has greatly deminished.
Since 1804 foreclosures are also way up in Tulsa.
More business on the North Side and the East have closed.
Home starts have dropped dramatically.
There is at least as much correlation between those as with the murder rate. But it is still an interesting point. I do not know if there is any causal effect on any of those - what % of murders involved illegals?
I suspect some did, but generally see petty crimes and spousal abuse with more Hispanic names than murder, robbery, etc. The foreclosures could be either rental properties or houses that Hispanics walked out on. The business going under are often ones owned by or catering too Hispanics. And of course home starts could either be due to a lack of labor, a glut of houses recently, or a general downturn.
Anyway, someone find Tulsa murders by race. I looked and found no stats that included race (correlation != causation and it's not PC, I suppose).
quote:
Originally posted by RecycleMichael
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle
Anyone else notice?
Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.
And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.
Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.
You get to decide why the only reason the murder rate is going down? Do you know how many of the murders were committed by Hispanics or on Hispanics in past years or this year?
I am guessing no.
Maybe the murder rate in Tulsa is going down because of other factors. Maybe it has to do with the weather, or George Bush, or the Tulsa guy on American Idol.
If the crime stats were going up, I am sure you would blame no one but the Mayor. But if they go down, she would get no credit from you.
quote:
If the crime stats were going up, I am sure you would blame no one but the Mayor. But if they go down, she would get no credit from you.
Are you suggesting doing nothing about crime wouldn't be a reason for crime rates to rise?
In this case, doing nothing cannot be reason for the rate going down.
There're all kinds of possible explanations, especially for a relatively small drop in real numbers. We're talking a difference of six murders, looks like.
Did TPS take any particularly violent perps off the street between now and then? Any gang or drug rings busted up? Did they perhaps change internal procedures . . . like patrol frequency or route? Better info to work with? Better partnerships with the residents in bad neighborhoods?
The job market is improving in Tulsa, and that could be a strong reason why conflict is down.
Is there a possible boomerang effect from the ice storm? Even though that happened before Xmas, the damage -- especially on the north side of the city -- was still immense into the new year. Conventional wisdom says a disaster like that would make for MORE violence, not less . . . but then, that's still an assumption, not any sort of scientific conclusion.
Also . . . it's early yet. There're still 39 more weeks for murders to catch up to last year's number.
And when did HB1804 actually go into effect? Is it possible to even see real fallout from it yet?
There are at least 6 people out there for whom these numbers are significant.
Shall we also discount all those corporate quarterly reports, housing and real estate quarterly reports and school grades?
quote:
Originally posted by we vs us
Also . . . it's early yet. There're still 39 more weeks for murders to catch up to last year's number.
My sister used to live in Miami, Florida. They were the murder capital of America for many years, then were surpassed by Detroit.
She said that Miami would come back. It was a rebuilding (and reloading) year and they had some good draft picks.
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle
There are at least 6 people out there for whom these numbers are significant.
Shall we also discount all those corporate quarterly reports, housing and real estate quarterly reports and school grades?
I agree. 6 people are still alive today because of some reason or combination of reasons.
Since HB 1804 passed, the inside of my house has had drywall work completed AND it has been painted, including an accent wall.
quote:
Originally posted by TulsaSooner
Since HB 1804 passed, the inside of my house has had drywall work completed AND it has been painted, including an accent wall.
Huzzah! A triumph over illegal immigration!
Since HB1804, the number of trees on my property have increased by 50%. Coincidence?
quote:
Originally posted by TURobY
Since HB1804, the number of trees on my property have increased by 50%. Coincidence?
Out with illegals, up with trees?
Okay, I'll come and ovver a little support to ya, though it's not much. While I didn't follow a lot of the info on the homocides last year, what I did see, there was a significant number in area's where there are a large amount illegle's. Also, many of the parties involved (rather victim or assailent) were hispanic. But, these are just casual observations, and are not meant in any way to construe that 1804 has been the cause of a short term decrease in homicides. If it has, IMHO it would be far less then a 50% effect on it.
there were 21 fewer homicides in 2004 (49) as opposed to 2003 (70). what happened that year? nothing, just a fluctuation.
I think this is just a natural fluctuation in the homicide rate no more no less, and has nothing to do with HB1804 at all.
I've seen a couple of news reports this year about Tulsa Police initiating a new "antigang" program. They also had a program late last year targeting career criminals. Don't remember a lot of details about either program, except that it looked like some civil liberties were being trampled on.
I accredit it to the increase in bike patrols:
(http://www.bikerfox.com/foxphotos3/images/DSCF3591.jpg)
That and maybe a change in police chief...
quote:
Originally posted by TheArtist
Actually I do think there are some correlations with temperature and crime.
I dont know about temperature, but there has historically been a correlation between crime and the amount of daylight hours.
Those numbers tend to spike when the moon is full -- not necessarily because of any tidal influence on our body water but simply because there has been more light available during full moons to see.
I should add that these day/night distinctions become less significant in modern population areas that experience 24/7 daytime due to artificial lighting...
Just thought Id throw that into the mix.
The FBI Uniform Crime Report states, "Some factors which are known to affect the volume and type of crime occurring from
place to place are...climate" (FBI Uniform Crime Reports) "Heat-induced discomfort makes people cranky," explains Anderson, a noted scholar, who has pored over 48 years of climate records from 50 U.S. cities. Not surprisingly he has found that the hottest summers bring in the most murders ("Frayed" 2001). And in yet another study done in Finland, "The peak in homicide rates occured commonly during the summer and the troughs during the winter" ("Frayed" 2001).
also check out this (//%22http://www-personal.umich.edu/~tnienber/poster/crime.html%22)
quote:
Originally posted by cannon_fodder
Since 1804 foreclosures are also way up in Tulsa.
More business on the North Side and the East have closed.
Home starts have dropped dramatically.
There is at least as much correlation between those as with the murder rate. But it is still an interesting point. I do not know if there is any causal effect on any of those - what % of murders involved illegals?
I suspect some did, but generally see petty crimes and spousal abuse with more Hispanic names than murder, robbery, etc. The foreclosures could be either rental properties or houses that Hispanics walked out on. The business going under are often ones owned by or catering too Hispanics. And of course home starts could either be due to a lack of labor, a glut of houses recently, or a general downturn.
You conveniently ignore the role of the sub-prime meltdown, higher gas/energy prices and the fact we are in a recession in your arguments. These factors have more acute impacts on lower income areas/businesses that are operating on the margins. Considering that illegal aliens send vast amounts of money out of the country in the form of remittances, instead of putting it back into the community, it's highly questionable whether they really have as much impact on the local economy as you suggest to begin with.
quote:
Originally posted by patric
quote:
Originally posted by TheArtist
Actually I do think there are some correlations with temperature and crime.
I dont know about temperature, but there has historically been a correlation between crime and the amount of daylight hours.
Those numbers tend to spike when the moon is full -- not necessarily because of any tidal influence on our body water but simply because there has been more light available during full moons to see.
I should add that these day/night distinctions become less significant in modern population areas that experience 24/7 daytime due to artificial lighting...
Just thought Id throw that into the mix.
I don't know about the studies, but I can say from experiance that when the moon is full, the criminals come out. I used to be a bounty hunter, and after figuring out that it took hours to book someone in due to the large amounts of arrests, I stopped hunting on nights of the full moon. I'm sure anyone that has worked at the DOC can attest to this as well.
quote:
Originally posted by Double A
Considering that illegal aliens send vast amounts of money out of the country in the form of remittances, instead of putting it back into the community, it's highly questionable whether they really have as much impact on the local economy as you suggest to begin with.
I have heard that before. I wonder if there is any verification about illegal alien income and how much of it is sent out of the country.
Double A, that was kind of the point... the whole causation correlation thing was lacking.
quote:
Originally posted by cannon_fodder
Double A, that was kind of the point... the whole causation correlation thing was lacking.
Agreed. I think it's ridiculous to make the claim that homicide rates have been reduced due to 1804. I would like to see some numbers on the rates of accidents involving illegal alien uninsured drivers, which was a huge problem before 1804 passed.
While I can agree temp and light probably do impact crime rates, we're speaking of murder here. Not even 'violent' crime as a whole, just murder.
And, rates indicated by the study show violent crime does seem to coincide with seasonal variations in temp. Not sure the same can be said for murder by itself.
Still, the quarter ending March 30, 2008 is only being compared to the same quarter of last year, where light and weather were similar. Even considering the new date for Daylight Savings Time, that would tend to promote an increase, not a decrease.
Gasoline prices are short of $1.00/gal different than a year ago.
Don't have any idea what gasoline prices effect on murder rates might be. It would seem to have to correlate with poverty conditions, or the economy in general more than just gas prices.
Only heard of one case in recent memory where guns were even involved with gasoline. That was someone getting their 5Gal can stolen at a gas station where shots were fired. No one killed. And, iirc, that was during the ice storm recovery when cans and gas (electricity) were in somewhat short supply.
Most power was restored prior to Xmas, so wouldn't tend to affect the 1st Quarter of the new year.
Anyway, the only major change from last year is HB1804.
As for the 2003-2004 numbers. It is 2004 which was the abberation, not 2003, which had about the same average number of murders as since, until now. Even then, 49 in 2004 represents almost one per week (52) and we are currently at half of even that rate.
Tulsa had 58 murders last year, and over 60 for each of the two years prior.
quote:
Originally posted by YoungTulsan
One more thing, I just saw a flood of police cars shooting down I-44, and I hear ambulances. Sounds like something just happened nearby!
Day-old Krispy Kremes on sale?
I fail to see any significance whatsoever. Unless you look at who is killing who, the entire discussion is pointless.
For example - the rate of illegal immigrants being murdered may be exactly the same as before while the number of legal citizen murders are down, or vice versa.
You can draw nothing from this stat other than "murders are down."
The points of light, moon phase, weather, etc. were to illustrate that any number of things can effect crime rate, including homicides. Just because HB1804 was a major event that took place since the decrease, it does not mean it is a deciding factor. If you follow the chaos theory, then you know that even a small event can have dramatic results.