I think I'll short this baby...
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/
Quote from: guido911 on October 23, 2012, 11:15:48 PM
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/
Help me understand the odds in Oklahoma. 0.1% Obama to 97.0% Romney
Our Ballot only has the two options, and no write ins.
Are they saying there is a 2.9% chance of anarchy to break out to the 0.1% chance of Obama winning without an insurrection?
Quote from: YoungTulsan on October 24, 2012, 12:15:10 AM
Are they saying there is a 2.9% chance of anarchy to break out to the 0.1% chance of Obama winning without an insurrection?
Yes.
Well, the polls have to start thinking about next year, so they've got to start getting real. I never thought this thing was going to be a blow out. Don't necessarily think Romeny will win, but I don't rule it out either. And this time just feels completely different than 2008. There is no passion for Obama. It's just "our guy sucks less than yours".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
This should be of grave concern to the left:
QuoteBarring some dramatic change in the final ten days or so, Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election.
In the 22 national head-to-head polls with Romney conducted in the month of October, Obama has hit 50 percent once, 49 percent four times, 48 percent three times, 47 percent eight times, 46 percent once, and 45 percent five times. (He hasn't hit 48 percent in a national poll since October 20.) Mind you, in most of these polls Obama has trailed narrowly, with Romney at 48 to 50 percent, and in a few, he's led Romney, with the GOP challenger at 45 percent or so. But the polling this month points to a strikingly consistent percentage of support for an incumbent president.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/331739/barring-some-sudden-change-romney-will-win-popular-vote#
Quote from: guido911 on October 26, 2012, 02:07:00 PM
This should be of grave concern to the left:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/331739/barring-some-sudden-change-romney-will-win-popular-vote#
Well for everyone's sake, we should all hope Jim is incorrect then.
Tulsa, a tad smarter than the rest:
QuoteOKLAHOMA CITY -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to lead President Barack Obama by a wide margin in Oklahoma but is only even with him in Tulsa, according to a SoonerPoll.com survey released Friday.
(per TW FB post)
Quote from: Townsend on October 26, 2012, 02:12:44 PM
Well for everyone's sake, we should all hope Jim is incorrect then.
Finally, someone that gets my teasing....
Quote from: guido911 on October 26, 2012, 02:43:45 PM
Finally, someone that gets my teasing....
Oh I got it...the minute you put that glove on.
Romney and Obama Tied in Tulsa Countyhttp://www.publicradiotulsa.org/post/romney-and-obama-tied-tulsa-county#.UIrbPnFjK9U.facebook (http://www.publicradiotulsa.org/post/romney-and-obama-tied-tulsa-county#.UIrbPnFjK9U.facebook)
QuoteRepublican Mittt Romney continues to lead President Barack Obama by a large margin in Oklahoma, but is only even with him in Tulsa.
That's according to a SoonerPoll.com survey released today. The phone survey of 305 likely voters, taken October 18-24, shows Romney at 58 percent statewide and Obama at 33 percent.
Obama picked up 4 points since the last survey in August, while Romney remained unchanged. In Tulsa, Romney and Obama are both at 46 percent.
Romney leads by 26 points in Oklahoma City and 42 points in the rest of the state.
http://soonerpoll.com/romney-still-commands-oklahomas-seven-electoral-votes/ (http://soonerpoll.com/romney-still-commands-oklahomas-seven-electoral-votes/)
REVOLUTION!
Haha!
(https://i.chzbgr.com/completestore/12/10/25/9dIhPA3dVEGDsjnyLde0KQ2.jpg)
Quote from: Townsend on October 26, 2012, 03:49:15 PM
Romney and Obama Tied in Tulsa County
http://www.publicradiotulsa.org/post/romney-and-obama-tied-tulsa-county#.UIrbPnFjK9U.facebook (http://www.publicradiotulsa.org/post/romney-and-obama-tied-tulsa-county#.UIrbPnFjK9U.facebook)
http://soonerpoll.com/romney-still-commands-oklahomas-seven-electoral-votes/ (http://soonerpoll.com/romney-still-commands-oklahomas-seven-electoral-votes/)
REVOLUTION!
Cool beans. Looks like a south Tulsa secession proposal in the making....
Apparently moderate Mitt wasn't so moderate.
http://bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/10/24/mitt-romney-overruled-state-agency-and-rejected-new-birth-certificates-for-children-born-gay-parents/TqOHBb99V98H6nGQqUQrjO/story.html
MARK CUBAN -
I Would Vote for Gov. Romney If He Were a Democrat http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-cuban/romney-election-2012_b_2020584.html?utm_hp_ref=politics&ir=Politics
QuoteWhat are two of biggest, if not the biggest issues in this presidential election? Health care and the economy.
Consider the following:
1. Who invented Obamacare and has the most successful implementation to date?
2. We are in a period where the government is borrowing money at a net effective rate of less than zero percent. Who has made hundreds of millions of dollars and a career of borrowing significant amounts of money to acquire companies in heavily leveraged deals?
It's crazy, but true.
QuoteIn this time when we need to grow the economy and create jobs, we need to cut ineffective and inefficient government spending in bureaucracy and administrative and increase investment where we can get the greatest return for the American people. And you know what makes my approach all the sweeter? We are borrowing money from China DIRT CHEAP and I will invest that to create American jobs!
QuoteMy plan is to let that growth continue to accelerate and to also continue the existing Bush tax cuts with the exception of an increase in individual taxes from 35 percent to 39 percent for those earning more than $1 million. I will also increase capital gains from 15 percent to 20 percent and eliminate the advantages of carried interest.
I believe in America. I believe our future is bright. I will do what corporate America is not doing and no amount of effort to manipulate the tax code will make them change, I will invest in America and create jobs.
My Republican friends on the other hand, believe that if you reduce tax rates, large corporations hoarding cash will miraculously bring that cash back to the U.S. and invest and hire. Trust me. I know investment. That won't do it. They can borrow money so cheaply there is no reason to bring it home and it certainly won't lead to jobs. If they had something to invest in that would generate a return, they would. They haven't.
Again, they won't invest in America. I will.
As a long-time investor, I have never turned down an investment because of tax rates. I was just as successful investing when capital gains were much higher. I was just as successful investing when individual tax rates were much higher. No smart investor turns down a good deal because of tax rates. I always remind people you only pay taxes on profits. And if you make more than $1 million in profits, whether through capital gains or ordinary income, you should pay more taxes.
Now look at the alternative my Republican opponents are proposing. The Republican candidate is trying to convince us all that it is going to be easy to convince both sides of Congress to come together and figure out at what number they can cap individual tax deductions. He is also saying that he is going to reduce corporate taxes AFTER he is able to get consensus on which corporate deductions to eliminate. That is not going to happen unless we outlaw corporate lobbyists. Everyone is for eliminating all deductions other than their own. The idea that everyone will happily agree to compromise is not consistent with the actions of this Congress and not going to happen.
It's not going to happen. He is not going to be able to get anyone to agree on which deductions to eliminate.
"And isn't it ironic...don't you think
A little too ironic...and, yeah, I really do think..."
Saw a poster with this caption - I guess we will see;
Romney's Mormon ancestors flee to Mexico to avoid anti-polygamy laws imposed on them in 1892. Pro Vietnam War Mitt Romney flees to France as Mormon Missionary to avoid military service in 1968 (I guess he was too valuable to serve?? ed. note). Mitt Romney makes tens of millions of dollars exporting American jobs to China and other low wage countries. Mitt Romney parks his personal wealth in overseas banks to avoid USA taxes.
Now, we are told he is a patriot who should be elected President? Seriously, are we as a nation that stupid?
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on October 27, 2012, 09:33:44 PM
Saw a poster with this caption - I guess we will see;
Romney's Mormon ancestors flee to Mexico to avoid anti-polygamy laws imposed on them in 1892. Pro Vietnam War Mitt Romney flees to France as Mormon Missionary to avoid military service in 1968 (I guess he was too valuable to serve?? ed. note). Mitt Romney makes tens of millions of dollars exporting American jobs to China and other low wage countries. Mitt Romney parks his personal wealth in overseas banks to avoid USA taxes.
Now, we are told he is a patriot who should be elected President? Seriously, are we as a nation that stupid?
Hey, you can't attack him because he puts religion ahead of his country....
Mitt's Storm Tips
https://twitter.com/MittStormTips (https://twitter.com/MittStormTips)
Storm tips for the 1%
Quote from: Townsend on October 29, 2012, 12:09:53 PM
Mitt's Storm Tips
https://twitter.com/MittStormTips (https://twitter.com/MittStormTips)
Storm tips for the 1%
Mitten's is the only joking matter here... he'll probably blame Obama for all this destruction. But we all know it's 2012.
Quote from: nathanm on October 28, 2012, 05:35:06 PM
I've come to expect better special effects from him.
If he isn't elected, as Obama said, "The question's going to be, how do Republicans react post-election?" he continued. "Because there's going to be a war going on inside that party. It just hasn't broken up. It's been unified in opposition to me."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/29/obama-morning-joe_n_2038103.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
I'm looking forward to the war between the Teaheads and the Greedy Old Party "regulars."
It's looking more and more like we are in for a nasty zombie apocalypse.
QuoteThe bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its "vote election model," is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
Not really sure who he is. But if he does special effects. He might want to work on that five head he's got going on there.
And this just in...
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/abc-news-moves-pensylvania-minnesota-from-safe-to-lean-obama/
I recommend prilosec over Tums for the belly pain, and RM tells me Depends works well for the other end...
I use Depends only one day a year.
I don't want to miss the Super Bowl or the commercials.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on October 29, 2012, 05:42:09 PM
I use Depends only one day a year.
I don't want to miss the Super Bowl or the commercials.
Now that's decision-making and planning at its finest, RM.
As for the election, I am getting so damned sick of it and want it over. Many know I am no Obama supporter. But as it stands one week before this cluster is over, other than his abhorrent and despicable position on life issues, nothing Obama has done has really affected me that much.
Quote from: guido911 on October 29, 2012, 07:26:10 PM
Now that's decision-making and planning at its finest, RM.
As for the election, I am getting so damned sick of it and want it over. Many know I am no Obama supporter. But as it stands one week before this cluster is over, other than his abhorrent and despicable position on life issues, nothing Obama has done has really affected me that much.
If you were to be honest with yourself, you would admit that some things have or will benefit you for a long time to come.
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on October 29, 2012, 07:44:56 PM
If you were to be honest with yourself, you would admit that some things have or will benefit you for a long time to come.
I am honest to my posted degree only. Which, btw, is a damn better than most of the lefties can muster in here about the other side.
Even NPR?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/poll-romney-obama-in-a-virtual-tie-nationwide-20121030
Quote from: guido911 on October 30, 2012, 01:41:33 PM
Even NPR?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/poll-romney-obama-in-a-virtual-tie-nationwide-20121030
Sure, why not? They're honest and reliable. It's not like they're Fox news.
Quote from: Townsend on October 30, 2012, 01:45:28 PM
Sure, why not? They're honest and reliable. It's not like they're Fox news.
Seriously, are there meetings or something you can attend to exorcise this bed wetting you and others seem to have over Fox News? I didn't even mention it, yet compulsively you threw that wholly irrelevant strawman out there.
Or, is it just that you yearn for the good ole days where the likes of Dan Rather/CBS could completely manufacture a story in order to influence an election without consequence or MSNBC announcers getting thrills up their legs over speeches. I could be wrong. Maybe you could link to me your posts in this forum showing the same level of disdain for that behavior.
Quote from: guido911 on October 30, 2012, 02:42:36 PM
Seriously, are there meetings or something you can attend to exorcise this bed wetting you and others seem to have over Fox News? I didn't even mention it, yet compulsively you threw that wholly irrelevant strawman out there.
Or, is it just that you yearn for the good ole days where the likes of Dan Rather/CBS could completely manufacture a story in order to influence an election without consequence or MSNBC announcers getting thrills up their legs over speeches. I could be wrong. Maybe you could link to me your posts in this forum showing the same level of disdain for that behavior.
Fox news is easily made fun of and apparently you take it personally.
Fox news is a sad excuse for international news and people are constantly fooled by it. It damages people's grasp on reality and should be stopped.
It's there purely for entertainment and everyone should realize that. They sell commercials by posting news that makes their audience feel better about their beliefs.
Quote from: guido911 on October 30, 2012, 02:42:36 PM
Seriously, are there meetings or something you can attend to exorcise this bed wetting you and others seem to have over Fox News? I didn't even mention it, yet compulsively you threw that wholly irrelevant strawman out there.
Or, is it just that you yearn for the good ole days where the likes of Dan Rather/CBS could completely manufacture a story in order to influence an election without consequence or MSNBC announcers getting thrills up their legs over speeches. I could be wrong. Maybe you could link to me your posts in this forum showing the same level of disdain for that behavior.
Quote from: Townsend on October 30, 2012, 02:48:29 PM
Fox news is easily made fun of and apparently you take it personally.
Fox news is a sad excuse for international news and people are constantly fooled by it. It damages people's grasp on reality and should be stopped.
It's there purely for entertainment and everyone should realize that. They sell commercials by posting news that makes their audience feel better about their beliefs.
I take it personally? I rarely watch cable news. You, on the other hand, are
obsessed with it. And since you seem so knowledgeable of how "sad" it is, I take it you watch it then? Or at least read about it?
And back on subject. Here is an article for those having trouble dealing with the notion that Obama might lose (which was a real joke to some in here last month). You are not alone.
http://www.sfgate.com/politics/joegarofoli/article/Dems-nervous-GOP-upbeat-as-vote-nears-3989238.php#photo-3656021
Quote from: guido911 on October 30, 2012, 02:52:13 PM
I take it you watch it then? Or at least read about it?
I watched the morning show a few weeks back. Give it a look. You'll understand.
Quote from: Townsend on October 30, 2012, 02:54:25 PM
I watched the morning show a few weeks back. Give it a look. You'll understand.
Maybe I will. But now, I am distracted by the deafening silence over your not being able to find your previous condemnation over other news source bias. :P
Quote from: guido911 on October 30, 2012, 02:59:15 PM
Maybe I will. But now, I am distracted by the deafening silence over your not being able to find your previous condemnation over other news source bias. :P
You mean your sad attempt to get me to admit something? OH NO's. Fox news is a joke. I haven't had much of a reason to condemn another because I've not seen the same damage coming from another source.
Have you seen the crazy that got elected 2 years ago thanks partially to that nut farm? Seriously Guido.
We've got dumbasses in congress who can't identify the 50 states much less decide the right way to vote for the betterment of the nation. Fox news has done an amazing amount of damage. They brought out the stupid in so many that our congress is in a constant flux of super-stupidity.
Sally Kern is still in power in Oklahoma because of these voters. That is freaking scary.
Quote from: Townsend on October 30, 2012, 03:05:09 PM
You mean your sad attempt to get me to admit something? OH NO's. Fox news is a joke. I haven't had much of a reason to condemn another because I've not seen the same damage coming from another source.
Have you seen the crazy that got elected 2 years ago thanks partially to that nut farm? Seriously Guido.
We've got dumbasses in congress who can't identify the 50 states much less decide the right way to vote for the betterment of the nation. Fox news has done an amazing amount of damage. They brought out the stupid in so many that our congress is in a constant flux of super-stupidity.
Sally Kern is still in power in Oklahoma because of these voters. That is freaking scary.
We've got a dumbass in the white house that thinks we have more than 50 states. Did he get that from Fox news?
Quote from: guido911 on October 31, 2012, 12:34:15 AM
We've got a dumbass in the white house that thinks we have more than 50 states. Did he get that from Fox news?
Probably...
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_11/the_most_misinformed_news_cons033634.php
Seriously though, you have better retorts than that.
Quote from: guido911 on October 31, 2012, 12:34:15 AM
Did he get that from Fox news?
Quote"Some may believe we're on the road to the Hitler youth." --Glenn Beck, on teaching kids about climate change, Fox News's Glenn Beck show, Feb. 5, 2009
Quote"I could give a flying crap about the political process ... We're an entertainment company." --FOX News Channel's Glen Beck, Forbes interview; April, 2010
Quote"America was certainly safe between 2000 and 2008. I don't remember any attacks on American soil during that period of time." —Fox News Channel host Eric Bolling, forgetting 9/11 (July 2011)
Quote"This is what being president of the United States is all about. It's these tough, huge monumental decisions. It's not about how you run a campaign. It's not about whether or not you're popular. It's not about whether or not you're a celebrity, good looking, tall or short. It's in the time of crisis making these executive decisions. It's just like our job – from a day-to-day basis, a lot of times where there's big breaking news, we just sort of roll along. But what's the role of an anchor during huge breaking news? Remember growing up? You tune to the television, and during that one moment during the year, they would have to carry a story all alone. It's the same thing as being the President of the United States." --Fox News Channel's Gretchen Carlson, comparing her job hosting a talk show to being president (June 24, 2010)
QuoteThe following exchange between Fox News hosts Bill O'Reilly and Megyn Kelly took place during a November 2011 discussion in which they tried to downplay the impact of pepper spray on student Occupy protesters at UC Davis:
O'Reilly: "First of all, pepper spray—that just burns your eyes, right?"
Kelly: "It's like a derivative of actual pepper. It's a food product, essentially."
Gretchen Carlson graduated from Stanford and is a classically trained violinist but she acts like an idiot so the fox audience will relate to her. If she used her intellect who knows what might happen to their audience in the morning?
Are you serious T? That's what you're reducing this to? Lifting quotes from Fox talent on a network that runs 24/7? You need to steer clear of Hoss for a while. And Hoss, you can pocket your critiques of what I post in here. I question whether you even know what "retort" even means.
On topic. Looks like there's a landslide coming...
QuoteVoters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide
Quote from: guido911 on October 31, 2012, 11:56:05 AM
Are you serious T? That's what you're reducing this to?
Even just thinking about Fox news temporarily drops a conversation to their level.
I'll defer to their preferred candidates doing things legitimately to our government.
Quinnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania Is Obama'shttp://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/31/quinnipiac_obama_leads_in_ohio_pennsylvania_is_obama_s.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar (http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/31/quinnipiac_obama_leads_in_ohio_pennsylvania_is_obama_s.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar)
QuoteOhio is where Mittmentum goes to curl up and die. It was true two weeks ago. It was a true one week ago. It's true now, as the new Quinnipiac poll gives Barack Obama a 50-45 lead in the state, unchanged from the week before. Since Mitt Romney's surge after the first presidential debate, only one poll—Rasmussen—has given him a lead in Ohio.
Into the internals we go!
- Romney's only winning Ohio whites by a 50-45 margin In 2008, McCain won Ohio whites 52-46.
- Obama's lead with with women is 17 points; Romney's lead with men is 5 points.
- By a 10-point margin, voters say the national economy is improving. By a 35-point margin they say the same of Ohio's economy. And 63 percent give "a lot" or "some" credit to the Obama administration.*
- Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel by 9 points. If this race is the "control," then Quinnipiac is better for Democrats than most other surveys—most of which find Brown leading but Mandel within 5.
It's worse for Obama in two other swing states. Quinnipiac was a bit of an outlier in Florida, seeing a 9-point Obama lead before the debates; it's down to 1. Virginia has moved from a 5-point race to a 2-point race. But if Obama wins either one of those, and no blue state falls away, he wins the election. And Quinnipiac doesn't see any historical blue state slipping away.
"We haven't bothered with Pennsylvania in these last polls," says Maurice Carroll, director of the polling institute. "It's in the bag for Obama."
That's a somewhat bold position, given that Quinnipiac's last Pennsylvania survey gave Obama only a 4-point lead. But nonpartisan polling groups have found basically the same story—Mitt Romney has not gained the territory he needs in eastern Pennsylvania in order to win the election. He goes on the air today in Philly, just as Barack Obama takes over the news cycle there with a visit to New Jersey's storm-battered towns.
How bad is it? Even an Obama surrogate goes into Wisconsin and gives the bad news:
Quoteenver Mayor Michael Hancock has been busy pushing for President Obama's re-election — appearing on stage Tuesday before former President Bill Clinton's speech and even heading to Milwaukee on Sunday to push for the Badger State's vote.
Hancock even broke news on that Wisconsin trip, telling voters if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin and its coveted 10 electoral votes.
http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2012/10/31/denver-mayor-michael-hancock-stumps-obama-wisconsin-early-voting-favor-president/85190/
That's an odd assertion. Romney hasn't led in any poll in Wisconsin since the middle of August. You'd think that he would have at least tied in even one poll during his post-first-debate peak if he were going to win.
Just freakin ignore that Denver guy. I am completely convinced no one knows what the hell is going on in these states.
Just look at what NPR has done!!!
Well, neutral minded Karl Rove has weighed in. And he takes on T's quoted poll as well.
QuoteDesperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion
Please allow me to interject and say this to all the pundits out there:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-8dytUtjlQ
Nate Silver pointed out a basic flaw in most polls. They rely on reaching prospective voters via landlines and do not include a significant population sample from cell phone users. This is important because a large portion of the population no longer uses landlines, relying on cell phones exclusively. Pollsters cannot robo dial cell phones. Its currently illegal. (Look for that to change if the polls are way, way off this election cycle) It's also time consuming and expensive to dial cell phones by hand, so the pollsters avoid it.
Yet despite all that, Silver's 538 blog is showing an increasing divide between the candidates, with President Obama having a 77% chance of winning this election.
And always remember, anecdotes are not data.
Quote from: Ed W on October 31, 2012, 08:12:37 PM
Nate Silver pointed out a basic flaw in most polls. They rely on reaching prospective voters via landlines and do not include a significant population sample from cell phone users. This is important because a large portion of the population no longer uses landlines, relying on cell phones exclusively. Pollsters cannot robo dial cell phones. Its currently illegal. (Look for that to change if the polls are way, way off this election cycle) It's also time consuming and expensive to dial cell phones by hand, so the pollsters avoid it.
Yet despite all that, Silver's 538 blog is showing an increasing divide between the candidates, with President Obama having a 77% chance of winning this election.
And always remember, anecdotes are not data.
And if Nate is wrong and Romney wins, he can say "Well, I guessed that right too since I gave him a 23% of winning".
Rove is clearly the desperate one. 31 polls in October had Obama in the lead in Ohio. Since the 14th, Obama has led in 22 polls. Romney has led in 6 in the past month and all of two since the 14th. There have also been 6 ties since the 14th. Assuming quite generously that ties were actually Romney leads, that's 31-12 all month and 22-8 in the past two weeks. Taking ties as ties, that's 31-6 or 22-2.
In the past week, it's even worse for Romney, 13-1 in favor of Obama, with no ties.
That's quite some Romentum he's got there. The problem for Romney is that it's in the wrong direction.
If I'm bored enough later, I'll go through and kick out the robopollers and see what difference that makes.
If you take The Ohio Poll at face value, Gary Johnson is going to cost Romney the election, and that's with it arguably oversampling Republicans at the expense of Independents.
I think Chris Christie is trying to prove Ann Coulter prophetic by throwing Romney under the bus....
http://theweek.com/article/index/235619/hurricane-sandy-is-chris-christie-throwing-mitt-romney-under-a-bus
http://www.therightscoop.com/coulter-run-chris-christie-or-well-lose-in-2012/
A $5,000 Shopping Run to Walmart Turned Romney's Campaign Stop into a 'Relief Event'
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/10/5000-shopping-run-walmart-turned-romneys-campaign-stop-relief-event/58529/
Woke up early enough to catch the sunrise this morning. Gorgeous!
Today (and the last few weeks) are the kind of days that make the rest of the year in Oklahoma worth putting up with it!! (115 degrees...really?? No excuse for that nonsense.)
Quote from: guido911 on October 31, 2012, 07:50:02 PM
Just look at what NPR has done!!!
Even the small children are more intelligent.
Storm of anti-Obama text messages linked to Virginia firmhttp://news.yahoo.com/storm-anti-obama-text-messages-linked-virginia-firm-210509103.html (http://news.yahoo.com/storm-anti-obama-text-messages-linked-virginia-firm-210509103.html)
QuoteWASHINGTON (Reuters) - A controversial Virginia marketing and polling firm appears to have used a legal loophole to bombard scores of Americans with unsolicited text messages berating President Barack Obama less than a week before Election Day.
More than a dozen different messages landed on the screens of phone users late on Tuesday, originating from mysterious websites instead of phone numbers. They attacked Obama and Democrats on a variety of issues such as abortion, foreign policy, same-sex marriage and taxation.
The domain names of those websites had been registered with GoDaddy.com through a firm that masks original owners.
On Wednesday, Reuters compiled a list of at least nine websites gathered from reporters who received the political text messages. A review of websites that track domain name registrations revealed that three of the nine websites that sent the messages were registered by Jason Flanary. Those sites had been suspended for spam and abuse.
An email for Jason Flanary indicated he works for ccAdvertising, a division of FreeEats.com Inc. Neither Flanary or the firm returned requests for comment.
CcAdvertising's website says: "All ccAdvertising services are compliant with all Do Not Call regulations and exceptions."
Based in Centreville, Virginia, ccAdvertising is a firm that has represented Republican candidates. It has been fined, sued and pursued for aggressive political pushes that state authorities and private parties have argued violate laws against robo-calls and other types of automated phone contact.
It remains unclear who may have paid for the latest wave of messages and how many people received them.
"If re-elected, Obama will use taxpayer money to fund abortion. Don't let this happen," read one of the messages, which were sent out on Tuesday. "Medicare goes bankrupt in 4000 days while Obama plays politics with senior health," read another.
In 2011, Flanary unsuccessfully ran as a Republican for state Senate in Virginia, and his company was sued in Fairfax County, for allegedly unleashing thousands of spam texts in the last days of campaigning.
Federal law generally prohibits sending text messages to phone users who did not give prior consent, but does not specifically address non-commercial messages that originate as email, which includes political ones.
That is how ccAdvertising appears to get around the law: Each phone number by default has an attached email address. The spammer can spray emails to those addresses through trial and error. That way the message goes through as an email but appears to the receiver as a text message and, in fact, can cost consumers money if they do not have unlimited data plans.
ccAdvertising and its work are used as an example in a petition to the Federal Communications Commission to specify a ban on spam email-to-text messages, filed earlier this year by Democratic firm Revolution Messaging.
"The FCC makes exemptions for people to be able to send email for political causes, but let's be honest, just because you're adding an email extension and using an email gateway, you still have to find a phone number," said Scott Goodstein, who runs Revolution Messaging.
Goodstein believes that ccAdvertising has been behind political text spam waves in several states this year.
ccAdvertising lists a variety of political and corporate clients on its website, including Americans for Tax Reform, a non-profit run by anti-tax Republican Grover Norquist.
"Americans for Tax Reform has never done this type of unsolicited text messaging with ccAdvertising or any other vendor, and we never will," said spokesman John Kartch, adding that the group has not done business with ccAdvertising "for more than a year" and, in fact, actively opposed Flanary in his state Senate bid.
The FCC and major phone carriers including Verizon and T-Mobile have encouraged users to report spam messages, which can be done by forwarding them to a short phone number 7726 (spells "SPAM").
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/NER-November2012.aspx?cid=soc_twt_NovNER_20121101
Mitt Romney Likely To Face Ethics Complaint From UAW For Allegedly Hiding Auto Bailout Profitshttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/mitt-romney-ethics-complaint-uaw-auto-bailout_n_2056941.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/mitt-romney-ethics-complaint-uaw-auto-bailout_n_2056941.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003)
QuoteThe United Auto Workers (UAW), the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), and other groups plan to file an ethics complaint against Mitt Romney for allegedly failing to disclose his profits from the auto bailout, the UAW has told The Huffington Post.
The groups are calling for an investigation by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics to investigate Romney's alleged violation of the Ethics in Government Act, which requires presidential candidates to disclose their personal finances. The ethics complaint comes on the heels of an Oct. 17 article in The Nation, which alleged that Romney has hidden his personal gains of at least $15.3 million from the auto bailout.
"He made his fortune off the misfortune of others," Bob King, president of the UAW, told The Huffington Post on Wednesday. "Why should we have to find out from the media about this?"
The Romney campaign could not be immediately reached for comment.
The allegations are ironic given that Romney has been a staunch critic of the auto bailout. Romney called for the government to let the auto industry go bankrupt in an op-ed in The New York Times in 2008. The Romney campaign also released a misleading ad in October that claims Chrysler has moved all production of Jeeps to China following the auto bailout.
Romney and his wife allegedly made millions from the auto bailout through their investments in the hedge fund Elliott Management, which held a stake in the auto bailout recipient Delphi Automotive, according to The Nation. The return on this investment amounted to more than 3,000 percent, according to The Nation.
That said, the magazine didn't say that Romney broke the law. From The Nation:
In their 2011 and 2012 Federal Financial Disclosure filing, Ann Romney's trust lists "more than $1 million" invested with Elliott. This is the description for all of her big investments—the minimal disclosure required by law.
The UAW is holding a press conference on the planned ethics complaint at 2 p.m. on Thursday in Toledo, Ohio.
NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses President Obama.
Quote from: carltonplace on November 01, 2012, 03:03:56 PM
NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses President Obama.
(https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/391650_10151081438000493_1630680369_n.jpg)
Quote from: carltonplace on November 01, 2012, 03:03:56 PM
NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses President Obama.
I don't see that swaying a major voting bloc Obama's way since NYC generally votes Democrat for POTUS every four years, and outside NYC I doubt many people care what Bloomberg thinks.
Quote from: Conan71 on November 01, 2012, 03:55:55 PM
I don't see that swaying a major voting bloc Obama's way since NYC generally votes Democrat for POTUS every four years, and outside NYC I doubt many people care what Bloomberg thinks.
The interwebs and the liberal media do.
In the most hilarious poll of the season, the race is 47-47:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/921161/UpworthyPPP-SwingStatePollResults.pdf
Stewart would edge out Colbert, but Eastwood would beat Winfrey handily.
Quote from: Conan71 on November 01, 2012, 03:55:55 PM
I don't see that swaying a major voting bloc Obama's way since NYC generally votes Democrat for POTUS every four years, and outside NYC I doubt many people care what Bloomberg thinks.
See.... and I think that if Bloomberg had endorsed Romney, you would have suddenly trumpeted what a WONDERFUL, BI-PARTISAN, INDEPENDENT Mr. Bloomberg is and how this would affect the outcome of the election...
Hmmm. :D
Obama just retook the lead on RCP...just barely.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html)
Quote from: Townsend on November 02, 2012, 11:12:44 AM
Obama just retook the lead on RCP...just barely.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html)
My take is Obama wins in a close one.
Quote from: guido911 on November 02, 2012, 01:30:42 PM
My take is Obama wins in a close one.
Four more years of Oklahoma government making strange choices because our glorious leaders can't be seen agreeing with the Federal Administration.
Quote from: guido911 on November 02, 2012, 01:30:42 PM
My take is Obama wins in a close one.
There is still time to vote for a winner!
Quote from: Townsend on November 02, 2012, 01:36:01 PM
Four more years of Oklahoma government making strange choices because our glorious leaders can't be seen agreeing with the Federal Administration.
Goes to some of my previous comments about how we elect idiots to be Governor...and legislators. We need smarter voters to vote for smarter public servants.
Quote from: Townsend on November 02, 2012, 01:36:01 PM
Four more years of Oklahoma government making strange choices because our glorious leaders can't be seen agreeing with the Federal Administration.
That borders on one of the most ridiculous posts you've ever made. We need to vote for federal government clones in Oklahoma? This state has little if anything in common with those D.C. bozos. And I will take Sally Kern over a Mark Foley or this guy any day.
Quote from: guido911 on November 02, 2012, 01:50:45 PM
That borders on one of the most ridiculous posts you've ever made. We need to vote for federal government clones in Oklahoma? This state has little if anything in common with those D.C. bozos. And I will take Sally Kern over a Mark Foley or this guy any day.
Even my "most ridiculous" makes more sense than the choices made by our state government.
QuoteI will take Sally Kern
No
QuoteWe need to vote for federal government clones in Oklahoma?
Not like the Tea party special eds voted in this last term, no.
Quote from: TulsaRufnex on November 01, 2012, 08:13:44 PM
See.... and I think that if Bloomberg had endorsed Romney, you would have suddenly trumpeted what a WONDERFUL, BI-PARTISAN, INDEPENDENT Mr. Bloomberg is and how this would affect the outcome of the election...
Hmmm. :D
Give Gloomberg a few more weeks and New Yawkahs are going to be screaming for his head on a platter. Totally mis-handling Sandy right now.
Quote from: Conan71 on November 02, 2012, 02:45:47 PM
Give Gloomberg a few more weeks and New Yawkahs are going to be screaming for his head on a platter. Totally mis-handling Sandy right now.
How so? While I'm uncertain about the run I've read differing opinions than yours.
It looks like fuel is being pulled in and Con-Ed is stating many networks would be up by tomorrow evening and sooner.
Quote from: Townsend on November 02, 2012, 02:50:21 PM
How so? While I'm uncertain about the run I've read differing opinions than yours.
It looks like fuel is being pulled in and Con-Ed is stating many networks would be up by tomorrow evening and sooner.
Maybe I'm putting too much stock in what homeless people on Staten Island are saying. They probably found the only two on the entire island who lost everything I'm sure.
Quote from: guido911 on November 02, 2012, 01:30:42 PM
My take is Obama wins in a close one.
Define "close one".... you will maintain he's not the clear choice no matter the margin of triumph.
HERE! http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/11/01/538-poll-update-of-republican-doom-mittens-must-be-having-kittens-edition/
"IT'S DOOM ALONE THAT COUNTS!" Bob Dylan
Quote from: Conan71 on November 02, 2012, 03:15:26 PM
Maybe I'm putting too much stock in what homeless people on Staten Island are saying. They probably found the only two on the entire island who lost everything I'm sure.
Drudge ran a story about people defecating in abandoned buildings in NYC. They could've run the same story before the storm.
Quote from: Townsend on November 02, 2012, 11:12:44 AM
Obama just retook the lead on RCP...just barely.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html)
Obama's lead got even smaller to .1 after ABC posted Romney taking the lead. I am beginning to despise polls even more. I wonder if I can make money doing this. I have a phone that I can use to call people. I have an internet thingy.
Quote from: Teatownclown on November 02, 2012, 03:19:45 PM
Define "close one".... you will maintain he's not the clear choice no matter the margin of triumph.
HERE! http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/11/01/538-poll-update-of-republican-doom-mittens-must-be-having-kittens-edition/
"IT'S DOOM ALONE THAT COUNTS!" Bob Dylan
I just freakin said Obama would win in my opinion. Would you do us a favor and doosh yourself.
On second thought....It looks like Romney might win PA. :o
http://twitchy.com/2012/11/02/new-poll-shows-romney-up-by-4-in-pennsylvania/
(http://thehostages.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/uninstall.gif)
Newt's irrational insanity knows no bounds... he is so far beyond delusional that it is amazing he can get up and dress himself in the morning.
What he is really doing is showing how he and his ilk plan to try an end run around the Constitution of their own. Sell crazy somewhere else...we're all full up here!
http://news.yahoo.com/errant-gingrich-email-obama-going-win-174518235.html
Bill Maher, not me....but he's white right.
Just think, in 48 hours the posties on TNF can no longer blame Bush. >:(
Quote from: Teatownclown on November 04, 2012, 02:09:25 PM
Just think, in 48 hours the posties on TNF can no longer blame Bush. >:(
Why not? They are still blaming Reagan.
Quote from: Red Arrow on November 04, 2012, 05:57:26 PM
Why not? They are still blaming Reagan.
And it's perfectly valid when they do something that adversely affects for years and even decades...
Fox News concedes the election. Blames Romney's loss on the liberal media.
The worst media election since the last onehttp://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/worst-media-election-since-last-one/ (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/worst-media-election-since-last-one/)
QuoteNo matter which candidate wins Tuesday, it's clear the media didn't just cover this election, they shaped it. To paraphrase Dickens, it was the best of coverage and the worst of coverage.
If you were President Obama, you got the best of coverage and photos of you with halos around your head. Your made-up autobiography and "composite" girlfriend were a blip in the news, your radical positions downplayed and the ongoing failures of your administration – economy, fast and furious, foreign policy in general – were all given short shrift in the major media.
Even your massive failure on Libya where four Americans were killed was somehow "utterly contrived" and CNN's Candy Crowley covered for you during the debates. Every silly thing your PR people thought up from Big Bird to bayonets to binders received journalistic attention.
The major media, on the other hand, turned Mitt Romney into a caricature straight off a Monopoly card. They hollered "Bain" like it was a scene from "Batman," dug into long-forgotten high school pranks and tried to depict him as radical right-wing, a well as bash him for his faith. A casual comment about the "47 percent" became "seismic" or a "disaster." Things like the massive decline in the job participation rate and Obama's $16-trillion nation debt were afterthoughts to news coverage.
The 2012 presidential election wasn't like the awfully spun race of 2008. It was worse. The media's longstanding war against conservative women which dominated the race four years ago, turned into a media-created "war on women" that somehow involved the GOP. Rush Limbaugh's calling the obscure, money-hungry Sandra Fluke a "slut" became major national news. The vice president saying the GOP wanted to put "y'all back in chains" garnered little notice even though nutty Biden is one heartbeat from the Oval Office.
Perhaps journalists were simply projecting as a result of their own attacks against Palin, Bachmann and O'Donnell.
While it wasn't a war on women, it sure was a war on truth and truth lost most days. The top issue to voters was the economy, but you'd never know it from the news coverage. Even the GOP primary, moderators pushed social issues to give Team Obama ample distractions from the 23 million under and unemployed.
When economic news was covered, it looked nothing like it had during the Bush administration. This time journalists found or created a silver lining inside every dark cloud. High gas prices weren't bad, they were "improving." And lousy economic growth was seldom called a major Obama failure.
For journalists, this election represented the reign of the fact checkers as the media used a new device to try and whine about Republicans. Yet the fact checking, as Crowley showed, was wildly one-sided and more to celebrate Dem talking points than anything. In one example, CNN journalist/Obama press secretary Soledad O'Brien was caught on air reading the Democratic blog Talking Points Memo to fend off a Romney spokeswoman.
But all that bias has led up to the election. Now all that's left is the counting, and perhaps, the recounting. If the race goes into extra innings, look for journalists to pull out all stops to help their man Obama once more to the top spot. But no matter who wins, the media ensured that the American public lost.
Not only that, but now his surrogates are suggesting that the President resign, and, yet again, suggestions about Obama not being Christian:
http://americablog.com/2012/11/giuliani-paul-ryan-will-romney-win.html
That usually indicates desperation.
October Surprise (a bit late).
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/394109_4220689434644_161546202_n.jpg
Dixville Notch went
5 Obama
5 Romney
Quote from: Townsend on November 05, 2012, 12:15:42 PM
Fox News concedes the election. Blames Romney's loss on the liberal media.
The worst media election since the last one
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/worst-media-election-since-last-one/ (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/worst-media-election-since-last-one/)
The one honest thing Faux did in this piece was to portray journalists as a group that does not include them.
A tweet I read:
QuoteRomney could still win this if too many Dems accidentally write-in "Nate Silver" with little hearts around it.
I saw this and chuckled...
(http://www.dslreports.com/r0/download/2048472~5ee0aa608b0329fc551eeb2353827056/r4o.jpg)