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Talk About Tulsa => Other Tulsa Discussion => Topic started by: Teatownclown on September 21, 2011, 11:29:13 PM

Title: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on September 21, 2011, 11:29:13 PM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/09/21/george-kaisers-10-billion-bet/

wow
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on September 22, 2011, 12:42:44 AM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/09/21/george-kaiser-has-a-big-green-energy-plan-and-it-doesnt-involve-solyndra/
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Townsend on September 22, 2011, 10:10:42 AM
Educare is a great program.  I hope it keeps spreading.  Thanks to the Kaiser foundation Oklahoma is leading the way with a positive.

QuoteTo fill those great facilities with great teachers, Kaiser's foundation donates $1.2 million a year to Tulsa Community College and the University of Oklahoma to fund programs to train early ed specialists. If young teachers work in Oklahoma for four years after graduation, they'll get their tuition reimbursed in full.


That is great.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Townsend on September 22, 2011, 10:42:53 AM
It blows my mind these projects don't get more local air time.  They'd be doing such a huge community service just talking about it a few times a month on the local news and in the paper.

All of them would have to start off with "This has nothing to do with your taxes.  This is all privately funded."
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Nik on September 22, 2011, 10:46:37 AM
Two great articles. Tulsa is lucky to have him.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Conan71 on September 22, 2011, 02:56:07 PM
Quote from: Townsend on September 22, 2011, 10:42:53 AM
It blows my mind these projects don't get more local air time.  They'd be doing such a huge community service just talking about it a few times a month on the local news and in the paper.

All of them would have to start off with "This has nothing to do with your taxes.  This is all privately funded."

Mainly because Mr. Kaiser seems to understand the best works are performed without recognition.

That self-aggrandiser Bartmann could use a lesson in class from GK.  Anyone else believe Bartmann's claim that he really was a billionaire at one point?  I sure don't.  He's so full of smile he can't even fart.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on September 22, 2011, 03:02:43 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on September 22, 2011, 02:56:07 PM
Mainly because Mr. Kaiser seems to understand the best works are performed without recognition.

That self-aggrandiser Bartmann could use a lesson in class from GK.  Anyone else believe Bartmann's claim that he really was a billionaire at one point?  I sure don't.  He's so full of smile he can't even fart.

That be Julius Caesar the 2nd....why'd you have to come onto this thread and throw down stink? That's not needed here. :-*


edjit: George Kaiser is smart (that's not news, of course), but plans like his need political advocacy and congressional approval. How do you win that when the people chosen to serve don't have the capacity to comprehend or the willingness to make the hard decisions, and the people who elect them are so undereducated?
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 08:15:05 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204524604576609102333605120.html


Crock of sh!t from the crock of sh!t editorial page in the Gall Street Journal....hanging Kaiser but elevating the Koch heads?
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Conan71 on October 04, 2011, 09:32:18 AM
Quote from: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 08:15:05 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204524604576609102333605120.html


Crock of sh!t from the crock of sh!t editorial page in the Gall Street Journal....hanging Kaiser but elevating the Koch heads?

Koch heads?  I like what you did there.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 04, 2011, 12:59:35 PM
Quote from: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 08:15:05 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204524604576609102333605120.html


Crock of sh!t from the crock of sh!t editorial page in the Gall Street Journal....hanging Kaiser but elevating the Koch heads?

It's the Wall Street Journal - you knew that going in.

Conan, Murdochian alert here for you!!

The New WSJ is just another one of those Fox outlets that twists, distorts, and misleads.  All in the name of Murdoch/Cheney/Rove RWRE Murdochian Koch Imperialistic Voyeurism.

Kaiser is a great guy and we need more like him.

Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 04, 2011, 01:03:57 PM
The Educare system apparently is nationwide.  Buffet, Gates, Kaiser - all in on the deal.

Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 01:08:40 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on October 04, 2011, 09:32:18 AM
Koch heads?  I like what you did there.


It's pronounced Coke as in the cola....NOT COCK, Conan. ;) :D
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Conan71 on October 04, 2011, 01:10:53 PM
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on October 04, 2011, 12:59:35 PM
It's the Wall Street Journal - you knew that going in.

Conan, Murdochian alert here for you!!

The New WSJ is just another one of those Fox outlets that twists, distorts, and misleads.  All in the name of Murdoch/Cheney/Rove RWRE Murdochian Koch Imperialistic Voyeurism.

Kaiser is a great guy and we need more like him.



I'm pinching the bridge of my nose trying to stave off a migraine right now.  Thanks a pant-load.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 01:32:48 PM
Koch brothers... this is a list of their crap. Boycott these Koch owned products. Its easy to do and you will feel better!
http://inspirationgreen.com/koch-brothers-products.html

Koch brothers... What do they do for the greater good of society?


Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: DolfanBob on October 04, 2011, 01:36:47 PM
Isnt there a Billionaires club where all the members are giving it all away when they die or something like that.
I have been a long standing member of the Hundredaires club and I'm taking mine with me.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Townsend on October 04, 2011, 01:39:43 PM
Quote from: DolfanBob on October 04, 2011, 01:36:47 PM
Isnt there a Billionaires club where all the members are giving it all away when they die or something like that.
I have been a long standing member of the Hundredaires club and I'm taking mine with me.

Per one of Mr. Kaiser's close employees Tulsa gets much of his.  All we can do is wish Mr. Kaiser well and hope he keeps being successful.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: DolfanBob on October 04, 2011, 01:49:48 PM
Quote from: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 01:32:48 PM
Koch brothers... this is a list of their crap. Boycott these Koch owned products. Its easy to do and you will feel better!
http://inspirationgreen.com/koch-brothers-products.html

Koch brothers... What do they do for the greater good of society?




Good lawd ! Are there any Daughters to marry ?
Im sorry but there are many things I can do without, One of them is not my favorite butt wipe. Ya gotta draw a line somewhere. Looks like they got me by my a**
Couldnt help but notice John Zink is on that list.....hmm
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Conan71 on October 04, 2011, 01:54:56 PM
Quote from: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 01:32:48 PM
Koch brothers... this is a list of their crap. Boycott these Koch owned products. Its easy to do and you will feel better!
http://inspirationgreen.com/koch-brothers-products.html

Koch brothers... What do they do for the greater good of society?




It would be as possible to boycott the Kochs as it would Cargill or ADM.  Their raw materials are everywhere so try as you might, you'd have to buy little or nothing to avoid the money somehow winding up in their pocket.

As well, we've been down this road before on the greater good issue.  Their John Zink division is regarded as one of the world leaders in low emission combustion technology.  They've contributed plenty to reducing emissions and helping to make cleaner air.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: TheArtist on October 04, 2011, 05:32:27 PM
Quote from: Townsend on October 04, 2011, 01:39:43 PM
Per one of Mr. Kaiser's close employees Tulsa gets much of his.  All we can do is wish Mr. Kaiser well and hope he keeps being successful.

I hope Kaisers foundation isn't hurt by this Solandra thing.  And yes, I believe I have heard that he and his foundation donates, on average, the equivalent of our cities entire yearly budget  :o. 
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: SXSW on October 04, 2011, 06:56:51 PM
Did anyone read the TW article about how Solyndra (if successful) wanted to open a second plant in Tulsa that would've employed over 1,100 people?  Were talking advanced manufacturing and engineering jobs with good salaries.  I'm hoping Solyndra lands on its feet even if bought by the Chinese so Tulsa can get this plant.  We weren't even on the radar until Kaiser started investing large amounts of money...
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 04, 2011, 08:00:27 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on September 22, 2011, 02:56:07 PM
Mainly because Mr. Kaiser seems to understand the best works are performed without recognition.


That's the way it ought to be.  The Bible says so...  and even if one doesn't subscribe to that, it still is the best way.

Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 04, 2011, 08:02:26 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on October 04, 2011, 01:10:53 PM
I'm pinching the bridge of my nose trying to stave off a migraine right now.  Thanks a pant-load.

You are more than welcome!!  Always glad to help!!!!

But you gotta admit, I gave you a heads up....

Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 04, 2011, 08:12:25 PM
Quote from: Teatownclown on October 04, 2011, 01:32:48 PM
Koch brothers... this is a list of their crap. Boycott these Koch owned products. Its easy to do and you will feel better!
http://inspirationgreen.com/koch-brothers-products.html

Koch brothers... What do they do for the greater good of society?




And don't forget that they are number one on the contributors list to Jim Inhofe! 
From one set of low lifes to another.

And yet, Oklahoma just loves the Inhofe cabal.  Go figure.




Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: TheArtist on October 05, 2011, 07:01:54 AM
Quote from: SXSW on October 04, 2011, 06:56:51 PM
Did anyone read the TW article about how Solyndra (if successful) wanted to open a second plant in Tulsa that would've employed over 1,100 people?  Were talking advanced manufacturing and engineering jobs with good salaries.  I'm hoping Solyndra lands on its feet even if bought by the Chinese so Tulsa can get this plant.  We weren't even on the radar until Kaiser started investing large amounts of money...

The only way it sounds like they could "land on their feet" is if they give up on the technology they were working on and start from scratch with something more cost competitive.  The tech they were using was more expensive than what was available in the first place (even before the Chinese started going big scale and dumping solar at cheaper and cheaper prices).  All the money in the world might not be able to make their tech competitive at this point, and there was no proof that it could have been done even before the Chinese induced price drops.  Plus prices and efficiencies will continue to keep getting better.   
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: SXSW on October 05, 2011, 01:46:04 PM
Quote from: TheArtist on October 05, 2011, 07:01:54 AM
The only way it sounds like they could "land on their feet" is if they give up on the technology they were working on and start from scratch with something more cost competitive.  The tech they were using was more expensive than what was available in the first place (even before the Chinese started going big scale and dumping solar at cheaper and cheaper prices).  All the money in the world might not be able to make their tech competitive at this point, and there was no proof that it could have been done even before the Chinese induced price drops.  Plus prices and efficiencies will continue to keep getting better.   

There is an article in the current issue of Time that explains a lot, and mentions "Tulsa, Okla. billionaire" George Kaiser.  There is also an interesting article on the Chinese vs. American solar industries in the San Jose Mercury.  It discusses how currently China has the edge due to government support and shear manufacturing volume but the U.S. has the edge in developing new technologies; an excerpt:

China now claims three-fifths of the world's solar panel production capacity. Chinese solar panel manufacturers such as JA Solar, now the world's largest, say companies from Silicon Valley and elsewhere blundered by betting on new technologies instead of focusing on making panels cheaper to produce.

"It's not a pure technology business," said JA Solar CEO Peng Fang, whose workforce grew from 4,000 to 12,000 last year. "If you invest in it as technology first and (cost reduction) second, you miss it. You need to reverse that."

But some industry experts disagree. They say the failure of some U.S. solar panel manufacturers -- with more collapses likely to follow as panel prices continue to fall -- does not mean the sun has set on Silicon Valley's solar ambitions. Ultimately, they say, breakthrough technology from Silicon Valley and elsewhere will be needed to drive the solar industry forward.

While "you can't beat the Chinese at their own game (of low-cost manufacturing), it is possible to go against the Chinese if you develop alternative technologies," said Shyam Mehta, a solar analyst with GTM Research, a renewable-energy market analysis firm. "You can disrupt the current production landscape. It's all about intellectual property, which is what the U.S. does."

Last year, the United States was a net global exporter of solar equipment, recording nearly $2 billion in sales, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research.

"There are huge opportunities to participate in the solar market, which is growing at double digits per year and will continue to grow for many years to come," said Conrad Burke, CEO of Sunnyvale-based Innovalight, which has an office in Shanghai. Innovalight makes "solar ink," a proprietary solution based on nanotechnology that can boost the efficiency of solar cells, and was recently acquired by chemical company DuPont.

Eventually, China's low-cost advantages will diminish, said Robert DeLine, vice president of marketing for Santa Clara-based startup MiaSolé, whose solar panels are made of different materials from those in mainstream solar panels and which competes directly with Chinese solar power giants.

Tim Harris, CEO of San Jose-based solar panel startup SoloPower, a veteran of the disk-drive industry, said that about two decades ago it was assumed Japan would dominate the disk sector. Today, the world's top disk drive companies, Seagate and Western Digital, are based in California. He sees a similar dynamic taking place in the solar industry, with a number of valley companies carving out important slices of the solar market.

"Some will try to innovate and manufacture here," Harris said. "You will have people like us designing and innovating here and going to low-cost manufacturing (areas of the world). You will have people licensing technology to someone else."

And at some point, Mehta said, the technology Chinese companies use to slash costs will plateau.

"We are miles away from where we need to be to compete on a subsidy-free basis with dirty energy," he said. "There still needs to be more innovation. Who will provide that leadership? That's where Silicon Valley comes in. Maybe the solution for the world is for Silicon Valley companies to provide the technological innovation and equipment and Asia to provide the production lines. To me, that is a winning model."

Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Conan71 on October 05, 2011, 03:12:23 PM
That's all great until the Chinese get your product, reverse engineer it and produce it themselves.

They are very predatory in their business practices.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on October 05, 2011, 04:05:44 PM
Quote from: TheArtist on October 05, 2011, 07:01:54 AM
The only way it sounds like they could "land on their feet" is if they give up on the technology they were working on and start from scratch with something more cost competitive.  The tech they were using was more expensive than what was available in the first place (even before the Chinese started going big scale and dumping solar at cheaper and cheaper prices).  All the money in the world might not be able to make their tech competitive at this point, and there was no proof that it could have been done even before the Chinese induced price drops.  Plus prices and efficiencies will continue to keep getting better.   

Just shows you don't go into a mature 2nd or 3rd generation market and try to develop a product like it was new technology.  It would be about the same as trying to start up a car company in this country from scratch.  Solar and wind are both mature products with commodity pricing WAY down the price curve.  Very hard to get into that.  And kind of stupid if you don't have an "edge" like a new process or method - or a niche application with lots of room for "value added".  First solar seems to be trying that approach.

Service and accessories are probably the only place to make any money in those markets now.  Like making towers for wind farms (like our Tulsa company does), or "propellor blades", or doing installation of both (solar and wind).  The hardware is all locked up and it is a sucker bet to try to fight $1.75 per watt for silicon cells.



Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Teatownclown on November 03, 2011, 10:35:46 AM
Looks like George will make an appearance before Congress. This will be good. January show down?


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67526.html


Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: nathanm on November 03, 2011, 04:49:31 PM
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on October 05, 2011, 04:05:44 PM
The hardware is all locked up and it is a sucker bet to try to fight $1.75 per watt for silicon cells.

The only reason the prices are so low is that the Chinese companies are having to sell them at a loss because of their large contracts with silicon ingot suppliers. When the Chinese companies either go bust or those contracts are up, prices will be going back up, barring some breakthrough that allows them to use less silicon.
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2011, 09:30:33 AM
Quote from: nathanm on November 03, 2011, 04:49:31 PM
The only reason the prices are so low is that the Chinese companies are having to sell them at a loss because of their large contracts with silicon ingot suppliers. When the Chinese companies either go bust or those contracts are up, prices will be going back up, barring some breakthrough that allows them to use less silicon.


They won't go bust because their government subsidizes them.

And even UniSolar is selling their fancy flexible cells for under $ 3.00 per watt.  

I could see silicon going up some - maybe even double - but at that point, more companies will move in to fill the vacuum if there IS a vacuum and the price will go down again.  They just won't be a Solyndra.  It's a lot like silicon memory...lots of ups and downs likely in the future, but more and more production, causing more watts for the same amount of money.



Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: Conan71 on November 04, 2011, 09:59:00 AM
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2011, 09:30:33 AM
They won't go bust because their government subsidizes them.

And even UniSolar is selling their fancy flexible cells for under $ 3.00 per watt.  

I could see silicon going up some - maybe even double - but at that point, more companies will move in to fill the vacuum if there IS a vacuum and the price will go down again.  They just won't be a Solyndra.  It's a lot like silicon memory...lots of ups and downs likely in the future, but more and more production, causing more watts for the same amount of money.


Admittedly, I'm not an economist.  How long can China continue to subsidize industries before they have their own debt crisis, or do they just keep printing cash and de-valuing their currency?
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2011, 10:04:34 AM
Quote from: Conan71 on November 04, 2011, 09:59:00 AM
Admittedly, I'm not an economist.  How long can China continue to subsidize industries before they have their own debt crisis, or do they just keep printing cash and de-valuing their currency?

Following our example, they have probably 70 years to go....

And yet, we are still cruising along subsidizing big oil, big agriculture, big banks, big insurance.  And all it would take to fix the present situation would be some spending cuts and let the Bush tax cuts lapse and we would be back to paying down the Federal debt.  You think that wouldn't be the biggest help markets have seen in decades?  Yes, it would.  End of crisis - for a long, LONG time - past the point where all the Baby Boomers are dead, those pending expenses gone, and the population increasing only due to illegal immigration.

And every politician knows this, but still they refuse to do what it takes to help the country.  Because the stated intent and hope is the hope that "Obama will fail" - quote from you-know-who.




Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: nathanm on November 04, 2011, 02:28:20 PM
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on November 04, 2011, 09:30:33 AM
They won't go bust because their government subsidizes them.

Surprisingly, the Chinese don't subsidize solar much. They're too busy keeping the state-owned businesses afloat. The problem is fairly fundamental, though. There is a certain cost to create silicon ingots that doesn't really change no matter how much volume you're doing. And three bucks a watt is over three times what the Chinese companies are selling their cells. (which then go to panel makers to get put into solar panels, at a not insignificant markup)
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: swake on November 04, 2011, 02:35:02 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on November 04, 2011, 09:59:00 AM
Admittedly, I'm not an economist.  How long can China continue to subsidize industries before they have their own debt crisis, or do they just keep printing cash and de-valuing their currency?

You should read up on the coming Chinese debt crisis. It's likely to be worse than ours was, but it should have an even smaller impact on our economy that Europe is. A prediction, there will be a positive outcome long term, the end of Chicom rule.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8366628/debt-crisis-hits-chinas-private-firms

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/business-views/171062-chinese-city-triggers-debt-crisis-alarm.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2011/10/23/chinese-ministry-saved-from-default/



Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 07, 2011, 09:22:46 AM
Quote from: nathanm on November 04, 2011, 02:28:20 PM
Surprisingly, the Chinese don't subsidize solar much. They're too busy keeping the state-owned businesses afloat. The problem is fairly fundamental, though. There is a certain cost to create silicon ingots that doesn't really change no matter how much volume you're doing. And three bucks a watt is over three times what the Chinese companies are selling their cells. (which then go to panel makers to get put into solar panels, at a not insignificant markup)

That's for sure - the bottom has been reached on cost of silicon processed for whatever.  The big savings now, and it is only in other semiconductors, is the feature size.  A solar cell has pretty much one feature size.  Not much room to improve.  Only real difference at this point is to find a new source of slave labor.


$3 UniSolar is for the flexible sheet cells that can be used for roofing material.  Worth a little premium.  They are about 15" x 18 feet long.  Goes well on a roof.  I can see a place for that - as did Coca Cola.  I will be using standard silicon for my system, though.

Even $3 is tremendous value, especially compared to the $100 per watt of 1980.


Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: nathanm on November 07, 2011, 11:30:27 PM
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on November 07, 2011, 09:22:46 AM
$3 UniSolar is for the flexible sheet cells that can be used for roofing material.  Worth a little premium.  They are about 15" x 18 feet long.  Goes well on a roof.  I can see a place for that - as did Coca Cola.  I will be using standard silicon for my system, though.

Even $3 is tremendous value, especially compared to the $100 per watt of 1980.
The flexible cells are less efficient than mono cells. Installing on a roof at a suboptimal pitch angle and possibly not even pointed due south reduces efficiency even further. IMO, it would be great tech if you could get it below a buck a watt. Beyond that, the fixed costs begin to drown out the energy savings. (Of course, if energy prices included all the negative externalities, energy would be much more expensive)
Title: Re: George Kaiser's $10 Billion Bet
Post by: heironymouspasparagus on November 08, 2011, 10:24:39 AM
Quote from: nathanm on November 07, 2011, 11:30:27 PM
The flexible cells are less efficient than mono cells. Installing on a roof at a suboptimal pitch angle and possibly not even pointed due south reduces efficiency even further. IMO, it would be great tech if you could get it below a buck a watt. Beyond that, the fixed costs begin to drown out the energy savings. (Of course, if energy prices included all the negative externalities, energy would be much more expensive)

Right!  No where near as efficient, and more costly per watt.  I suspect installation is the place where they make up the difference.  Glue them to the roof versus frames, racks, heavier roof support requirements.

In my world, the standard cells are the solution of choice, but for Coca-Cola with 486 acres of flat roof, it could make sense.  Installation is viciously expensive for standard cells.