Wow! Futures are way down this morning (7:30). The market may dump to under 10K. The unemployment #s and what is expected to be a lousy retail report today may trigger a melt-down.
Hold on.
Negative Nancy?
My trades executed in the first 4 minutes, and now (insert bomb falling sound) there it goes.
Retail sales are up..."modestly", but up.
edited to say: Ah, not as "up" as the they were hoping for.
and then I started reading the opinions of the experts...it's like Sauer took a new job with a gaggle of economists.
I'll be happier than a clam if I'm wrong.
Gaspar just wants everybody to panic. He needs to find new things to blame on Obama.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 13, 2010, 08:40:28 AM
Gaspar just wants everybody to panic. He needs to find new things to blame on Obama.
No, same old things.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 13, 2010, 08:40:28 AM
Gaspar just wants everybody to panic. He needs to find new things to blame on Obama.
Yeah, it was hard for many Bush supporters to say anything bad about our previous president while the economy was going in the tank. I hate blaming previous administrations just as much as the next guy (no pun intended) but let's remember whose watch it was under that this whole mess got started. Some people act like it just began on 1/20/09...
And let's not forget the era of non-regulation that was supported by the administration before that and others before Clinton.
Quote from: Hoss on August 13, 2010, 08:47:13 AM
Yeah, it was hard for many Bush supporters to say anything bad about our previous president while the economy was going in the tank. I hate blaming previous administrations just as much as the next guy (no pun intended) but let's remember whose watch it was under that this whole mess got started. Some people act like it just began on 1/20/09...
And let's not forget the era of non-regulation that was supported by the administration before that and others before Clinton.
Not a Bush supporter Hoss. Never was. It is however growing more and more hysterical to blame him for today's aloof leadership and MASSIVE MASSIVE INVESTMENT IN MORE GOVERNMENT rather than belt tightening and fiscal responsibility. Bush was an irresponsible spender, but President Obama really makes that a moot argument :D.
The "Spend & Ignore" strategy is taking it's toll.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 13, 2010, 07:29:01 AM
Wow! Futures are way down this morning (7:30). The market may dump to under 10K. The unemployment #s and what is expected to be a lousy retail report today may trigger a melt-down.
Hold on.
And the markets open flat.
I really get the impression you take a bath in the markets constantly.
Quote from: swake on August 13, 2010, 08:56:39 AM
And the markets open flat.
I really get the impression you take a bath in the markets constantly.
Agreed. Anyone who tries to time the market -- outside of investing professionals -- is a damned fool.
Quote from: rwarn17588 on August 13, 2010, 09:04:29 AM
Agreed. Anyone who tries to time the market -- outside of investing professionals -- is a damned fool.
I admit, I have been a fool on more than one occasion.
Up 21 pts.
Quote from: Hoss on August 13, 2010, 08:47:13 AM
Yeah, it was hard for many Bush supporters to say anything bad about our previous president while the economy was going in the tank. I hate blaming previous administrations just as much as the next guy (no pun intended) but let's remember whose watch it was under that this whole mess got started. Some people act like it just began on 1/20/09...
And let's not forget the era of non-regulation that was supported by the administration before that and others before Clinton.
Interesting to note how a lack of confidence in President Obama's election affected investors. Nov. 4, 2008 market closed at 9625, Nov. 5 it closed at 9139, Nov. 6 it closed at 8696.
Markets opened at 7949 on 1/20/09 And it continued a 1400 point free-fall until early March until someone must have finally pointed out to President Obama and Turbo Tax Geithner that the campaign against W was over. That free-fall was good to me, I'm not complaining, I bought a lot of stocks at fire sale prices we likely might not see again. Just wishing I'd followed my hunch and bought 10K shares of DTAG when it bottomed out.
Quote from: Hoss on August 13, 2010, 08:47:13 AM
Yeah, it was hard for many Bush supporters to say anything bad about our previous president while the economy was going in the tank. I hate blaming previous administrations just as much as the next guy (no pun intended) but let's remember whose watch it was under that this whole mess got started. Some people act like it just began on 1/20/09...
And let's not forget the era of non-regulation that was supported by the administration before that and others before Clinton.
Lets say it started 1/20/09
Dow was at 7949.08
Dow is at 10,334 right now
So the dow is up 30% since Obama took office.
1/19/2001 the dow was at 10587 at 25% drop to 1/20/2009
Quote from: Trogdor on August 13, 2010, 09:20:29 AM
Lets say it started 1/20/09
Dow was at 7949.08
Dow is at 10,334 right now
So the dow is up 30% since Obama took office.
1/19/2001 the dow was at 10587 at 25% drop to 1/20/2009
That neglects to point out that many investors did quite well with the Dow topping out at 14,000+ during that time.
Quote from: Conan71 on August 13, 2010, 09:23:29 AM
That neglects to point out that many investors did quite well with the Dow topping out at 14,000+ during that time.
This is very very true. There is no money to be made in a stable market. The money is on the swings. This is where real money is made (even on the crashes). So the banks and big $ investors have to produce instability to make money. Its just the suckers with their retirement in their 401ks that can't do high frequency trading that get stuck holding the bag.
If you think you are being stalked for your trash, add some dog gifts (Poo) to your normal trash. It discouraged a trash router for a friend of mine.
Quote from: Conan71 on August 13, 2010, 09:23:29 AM
That neglects to point out that many investors did quite well with the Dow topping out at 14,000+ during that time.
A lot of that 14k was bubble-value. ie. inflated by bad credit and poorly priced (and understood) financial products.
EDIT: meaning only that it's unrealistic, IMO, to view that as a legit benchmark for the Dow to return to without another bubble inflating.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 13, 2010, 08:31:57 AM
My trades executed in the first 4 minutes, and now (insert bomb falling sound) there it goes.
Market not falling yet. Do you have any Super Bowl picks I could bet against?
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 13, 2010, 09:47:26 AM
Market not falling yet. Do you have any Super Bowl picks I could bet against?
Da Bears!
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 13, 2010, 09:47:26 AM
Market not falling yet. Do you have any Super Bowl picks I could bet against?
I want the market to boom. I have more in than out. I just see indicators that it's headed in the wrong direction. I am not a pro at this.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 13, 2010, 09:57:20 AM
I want the market to boom.
I don't want the market to boom. I want strong and steady growth that is at least double what the bank would pay me for my investment money. Market booms lead to market busts.
Now, if I was a day trader, I would want a roller-coaster market.
Quote from: we vs us on August 13, 2010, 09:41:06 AM
A lot of that 14k was bubble-value. ie. inflated by bad credit and poorly priced (and understood) financial products.
EDIT: meaning only that it's unrealistic, IMO, to view that as a legit benchmark for the Dow to return to without another bubble inflating.
All of the 14k was a bubble based on the accumilation of consumer debt.
Quote from: we vs us on August 13, 2010, 09:41:06 AM
A lot of that 14k was bubble-value. ie. inflated by bad credit and poorly priced (and understood) financial products.
EDIT: meaning only that it's unrealistic, IMO, to view that as a legit benchmark for the Dow to return to without another bubble inflating.
Just like all the .com, biogen, and telecom IPO's and the advent of individual on-line trading did to inflate the Dow from 3300 to as high as 11,500 and finally settling in around 10,600 did during the Clinton years. That should have sounded a lot of alarms as it signaled an unprecidented binge of public borrowing this country has never seen before and hopefully will never again. Many companies were way over-valued either because people wanted in on the ground floor of the next big thing, or outright accounting scandals. No, don't translate that into me blaming President Clinton. It's more an indication of people seeking short-cuts to wealth. One nice side-effect of that period is a lot of baby boomers had great gains in their retirement accounts, though a lot of those gains were cut when people reacted too slowly to downturns.
I'd far rather see slow and measured growth than the Dow tripling in eight years.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 13, 2010, 09:57:20 AM
I am not a pro at this.
That's apparent.
Instead of wasting your money on trading fees and advisers, why don't you simply dollar-cost average into index mutual funds? It's a much-lower cost way of investing, and your money will follow the market's flow instead of you paying extra to have someone trying to chase the Dow or S&P 500 or Russell 2000 in vain.
People who try to beat the market or who think they're smarter than the market get burned. That sounds an awful lot like you.
Quote from: Trogdor on August 13, 2010, 10:13:04 AM
All of the 14k was a bubble based on the accumilation of consumer debt.
From what I've read, the actual money in play in the markets was more due to unregulated derivatives trading and the bundling of bad mortgages into depth-charge financial products than consumer debt.
Not that consumer debt wasn't/isn't a problem, it's just that that money doesn't show up directly in the markets as a vehicle someone can invest in . . . and hence one that inflates or deflates in value.
Quote from: rwarn17588 on August 13, 2010, 10:40:06 AM
That's apparent.
Instead of wasting your money on trading fees and advisers, why don't you simply dollar-cost average into index mutual funds? It's a much-lower cost way of investing, and your money will follow the market's flow instead of you paying extra to have someone trying to chase the Dow or S&P 500 or Russell 2000 in vain.
Because it's for Pu$$ies. ;)
Quote from: we vs us on August 13, 2010, 10:46:23 AM
From what I've read, the actual money in play in the markets was more due to unregulated derivatives trading and the bundling of bad mortgages into depth-charge financial products than consumer debt.
Not that consumer debt wasn't/isn't a problem, it's just that that money doesn't show up directly in the markets as a vehicle someone can invest in . . . and hence one that inflates or deflates in value.
Derivatives aren't indexed by the Dow in the first place. Banks and financial stock values were propped up by them and they essentially allowed banks and financials to hide losses a lot longer. Let's face it, there's a whole lot of unsavory smile which has passed for savvy investing the last 20 years or so. Let's hope the lesson has been learned.
Quote from: Conan71 on August 13, 2010, 11:00:56 AM
Derivatives aren't indexed by the Dow in the first place. Banks and financial stock values were propped up by them and they essentially allowed banks and financials to hide losses a lot longer. Let's face it, there's a whole lot of unsavory smile which has passed for savvy investing the last 20 years or so. Let's hope the lesson has been learned.
You're right re: derivatives trading, but even if that money didn't show up directly as part of the major indices it was still in play in a broad sense within the investment world. Consumer debt is much more directly connected to spending, and so isn't really available for investment.
But yeah, we agree on 99.9% of this.
Quote from: we vs us on August 13, 2010, 10:46:23 AM
From what I've read, the actual money in play in the markets was more due to unregulated derivatives trading and the bundling of bad mortgages into depth-charge financial products than consumer debt.
Not that consumer debt wasn't/isn't a problem, it's just that that money doesn't show up directly in the markets as a vehicle someone can invest in . . . and hence one that inflates or deflates in value.
I am basing that statement on the fact that our economy is mostly consumer driven. So there is a sort of artificial demand in some sectors that are extending people to buy houses, cars, home improvement items, vacations, gasoline, natural gas, electricity. etc etc. So a huge pile of earnings in the market were due to 2nd mortgages and overall more debt. So while that money isn't used to invest it does show up in the earnings in the companies in the Dow.
With less than an hour left in the trading day, the Dow is up slightly.
The day range has been from 10,285 to 10,355.
Pretty normal day.
GAS stock is down slightly...
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 13, 2010, 02:12:35 PM
GAS stock is down slightly...
Rather deflated. Give him a break though, it's his birthday.
Here's his senior pics.
(http://c0013454.cdn1.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/x2_24e8ac2)
Brainiac Gas and Good-times Gas
Smart + Party = good times
Quote from: Townsend on August 13, 2010, 02:19:08 PM
Here's his senior pics.
(http://c0013454.cdn1.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/x2_24e8ac2)
Brainiac Gas and Good-times Gas
Smart + Party = good times
Dang! Wish I had thought of a monocle for my Senior pics.
Funny story though, when the photographer asked my name I said "Ted Nugent" and he wrote it on the card without a flinch. My mom was so proud that her son was forever immortalized in the 87' Jenks yearbook as Ted Nugent.
Index Last Change
I:DJI 10303.15 -16.80-0.16%
INX 1079.25 -4.36-0.40%
SPX.X 1079.25 -4.36-0.40%
Quote from: Gaspar on August 13, 2010, 02:26:26 PM
Funny story though, when the photographer asked my name I said "Ted Nugent" and he wrote it on the card without a flinch. My mom was so proud that her son was forever immortalized in the 87' Jenks yearbook as Ted Nugent.
I wish I'd been awesome enough to think of a name from "Fletch".
In case you hadn't heard, Thursday's action on the New York Stock Exchange registered a technical anomaly known as the Hindenburg Omen. Read: just like the doomed German airship, the markets are fated to crash and burn. Still worse, Wednesday's trading action almost sparked Hindenburg Omen conditions. It takes two Hindenburg Omen trading days within a 36 day window to trigger the end of life in the markets as we know it.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10835851/1/hindenburg-omen-is-a-stock-market-crash-imminent.html
Quote from: Gaspar on August 16, 2010, 08:54:48 AM
In case you hadn't heard, Thursday's action on the New York Stock Exchange registered a technical anomaly known as the Hindenburg Omen. Read: just like the doomed German airship, the markets are fated to crash and burn. Still worse, Wednesday's trading action almost sparked Hindenburg Omen conditions. It takes two Hindenburg Omen trading days within a 36 day window to trigger the end of life in the markets as we know it.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10835851/1/hindenburg-omen-is-a-stock-market-crash-imminent.html
Mmmm.....tasty FUD
Quote from: Hoss on August 16, 2010, 09:00:14 AM
Mmmm.....tasty FUD
If that article doesn't convince you that the modern stock market is completely divorced from fundamentals, nothing will.
Quote from: nathanm on August 16, 2010, 09:10:59 AM
If that article doesn't convince you that the modern stock market is completely divorced from fundamentals, nothing will.
Divorced? Hell it's even got a protective order frm fundamentals.
It's market voodoo. Self fulfilling prophecy. An Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) could do no better.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 16, 2010, 09:43:54 AM
An Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) could do no better.
Oracle will be sitting pretty if they win their lawsuit against Google. ;)
Quote from: Gaspar on August 16, 2010, 08:54:48 AM
In case you hadn't heard, Thursday's action on the New York Stock Exchange registered a technical anomaly known as the Hindenburg Omen. Read: just like the doomed German airship, the markets are fated to crash and burn. Still worse, Wednesday's trading action almost sparked Hindenburg Omen conditions. It takes two Hindenburg Omen trading days within a 36 day window to trigger the end of life in the markets as we know it.
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
You must think we are all named Henny Penny or Turkey Lurky...
Quote from: nathanm on August 16, 2010, 09:58:25 AM
Oracle will be sitting pretty if they win their lawsuit against Google. ;)
They laid off a bunch of their development staff and aren't pushing any new data utilities. Makes me think that they are really banking everything on this suit.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 16, 2010, 10:15:32 AM
They laid off a bunch of their development staff and aren't pushing any new data utilities. Makes me think that they are really banking everything on this suit.
Oh goodness, if Oracle loses, will they shut down????
Gasp,
I don't mean to be rude, but this is a beyond clueless statement. You make is sound like Oracle is a little start up on it's last legs grasping at a lawsuit to save the company (like Tivo) instead of one the largest most pervasive and profitable technology companies in the world.
Java isn't even a particularly important product to Oracle in the big scheme of things. They are just trying to make money on the purchase of Sun, along with trying to get into the handset game, which might become profitable to Google in the future.
Quote from: swake on August 16, 2010, 11:00:16 AM
Oh goodness, if Oracle loses, will they shut down????
Gasp,
I don't mean to be rude, but this is a beyond clueless statement. You make is sound like Oracle is a little start up on it's last legs grasping at a lawsuit to save the company (like Tivo) instead of one the largest most pervasive and profitable technology companies in the world.
Java isn't even a particularly important product to Oracle in the big scheme of things. They are just trying to make money on the purchase of Sun, along with trying to get into the handset game, which might become profitable to Google in the future.
Dude! That's not what I'm saying at all. All I am saying is that a company focused on constant innovation and gobbling up of other technologies has halted that effort, and it may be due to a perceived windfall from a lawsuit with Google. You really read a lot into that one. :o
Quote from: Gaspar on August 16, 2010, 11:47:44 AM
Dude! That's not what I'm saying at all. All I am saying is that a company focused on constant innovation and gobbling up of other technologies has halted that effort, and it may be due to a perceived windfall from a lawsuit with Google. You really read a lot into that one. :o
Well, it's really debatable if Google is making anything at all yet from Android, so any windfall from this lawsuit is completely theoretical.
And Oracle and innovation haven't been connected in some time, kinda like Microsoft, but even worse.
It's all geek speak to me!
Quote from: Conan71 on August 16, 2010, 12:25:58 PM
It's all geek speak to me!
Basically, Oracle is one the largest companies in the world. They have over 100,000 employees and a market cap of more than 100 billion and produce a wide range of products that touch your life (along with most people on Earth) every day, you just don't usually see it. To say that they are not going to attempt to innovate anymore because they laid off some developers and are suing another technology behemoth over patent infringement of one of their middle level products is ludicrous.
The question about Oracle is the same one people ask about Microsoft. As an older, more entrenched, and massive tech company with ubiquitous and hugely profitable products do they still have a corporate culture that allows for real innovation. Can Oracle be part of what's next as opposed to dominating what's now. This lawsuit has little to do with that question.
Today the Dow dropped from 10,303 all the way to 10,302.
I guess the kids can get a few more steps in them old shoes.
NEW YORK — Investors regained some enthusiasm for stocks Tuesday, sending prices sharply higher after reports showed a slight improvement in the housing market and a big jump in industrial production.
Investors were also encouraged by earnings from Home Depot Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that were better than expected. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 103 points. All the major stock indexes were up more than 1 percent. Interest rates rose as investors moved out of the bond market and back into stocks.
Index Last Change
I:DJI 10405.85 +103.84+1.01%
INX 1092.54 +13.16+1.22%
SPX.X 1092.54 +13.16+1.22%
I:DJI 10405.85 +103.84+1.01%
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38735496/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38735496/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy)
Not so worried about my decision making process now. You guys had me spooked.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38826988
Some are saying we will get down to 5,000, but I'm going to get back in at 6,000. Being relatively young, most of what I had was Tech stuff, and I'm glad I sold it off the other day. Everything else is long term and I can weather this storm.
I noticed that Soros sold most of his large US holdings last week. Dumped most of his banking, finance, and retail stocks.
The sky is not falling, but the ceiling is getting lower.
Let's put a wager on it Gaspar.
You think the Dow will drop below 6,000.
Let's bet.
I say the Dow will be over 11,000 before it drops below 8,000.
Loser buys winner a case of Marshall's Beer.
Are you in?
If the fed continues sitting on their hands, Gaspar may be closer to correct than any of us would like.
Given that Bernanke was sharply critical of the Bank of Japan for fiddling while the Japanese economy stagnated in deflation, I'm surprised he's let it go this long. I suppose he's probably having trouble getting certain of the Fed Presidents on board with action. Some of them are ideologically opposed to the idea that the Fed has any place in solving this problem, despite it being legislatively mandated that they do so. (Inflation is well below target, nearly to zero; the law requires that the FRB set a target and make it happen)
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 25, 2010, 09:27:09 AM
Let's put a wager on it Gaspar.
You think the Dow will drop below 6,000.
Let's bet.
I say the Dow will be over 11,000 before it drops below 8,000.
Loser buys winner a case of Marshall's Beer.
Are you in?
I hate to bet on the failure of the market, but I'm in for a 12 pack (that way I can buy a case, and drink the other 12 myself to make me feel better). :'(
12 oz!
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 25, 2010, 09:27:09 AM
Let's put a wager on it Gaspar.
You think the Dow will drop below 6,000.
Let's bet.
I say the Dow will be over 11,000 before it drops below 8,000.
Loser buys winner a case of Marshall's Beer.
Are you in?
Case of 22's or 12's? I'll take that action.
Quote from: nathanm on August 25, 2010, 09:40:44 AM
If the fed continues sitting on their hands, Gaspar may be closer to correct than any of us would like.
Given that Bernanke was sharply critical of the Bank of Japan for fiddling while the Japanese economy stagnated in deflation, I'm surprised he's let it go this long. I suppose he's probably having trouble getting certain of the Fed Presidents on board with action. Some of them are ideologically opposed to the idea that the Fed has any place in solving this problem, despite it being legislatively mandated that they do so. (Inflation is well below target, nearly to zero; the law requires that the FRB set a target and make it happen)
Catch 22 at this point. If he raises interest rates it will further stagnate a housing market that is over 25% in the dumpster, and any growing businesses struggling for financing.
The picture is becoming far more clear now. Everything focuses back on housing and the bubble generated. There is a huge amount of capital locked up (and on fire).
Quote from: Conan71 on August 25, 2010, 09:48:11 AM
Case of 22's or 12's? I'll take that action.
And to think, you can get around the law against betting because your just "playing the market" with your own choice of stock and trade.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 25, 2010, 09:45:37 AM
I hate to bet on the failure of the market, but I'm in for a 12 pack (that way I can buy a case, and drink the other 12 myself to make me feel better). :'(
12 oz!
We have a bet.
12 bottles of Marshall's it is.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 25, 2010, 09:50:24 AM
Catch 22 at this point. If he raises interest rates it will further stagnate a housing market that is over 25% in the dumpster, and any growing businesses struggling for financing.
The picture is becoming far more clear now. Everything focuses back on housing and the bubble generated. There is a huge amount of capital locked up (and on fire).
If he RAISES interest rates? pancakes are you talking about? Why on Earth would that even be a consideration?
The drop in housing was expected, and if it doesn't pick up in the next 60 days it's easy to fix. Just reinstitute the buyers tax credit. It's not like there are no options here.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 25, 2010, 09:50:24 AM
Catch 22 at this point. If he raises interest rates it will further stagnate a housing market that is over 25% in the dumpster, and any growing businesses struggling for financing.
That makes no sense. You don't raise interest rates to head off deflation. You either create money (in this case, you'd want to do things like buy MBS, corporate bonds, or other instruments that stimulate demand) or a credible threat of future inflation.
That's what the Fed can do anyway. The government itself could buy more stuff (more stimulus, essentially), reduce working hours of individuals so as to cause employers to employ more people or pay existing employees more in overtime, decide we are indeed going to send a manned mission to Mars before 2020, or start another war, among other things that would create demand.
The point being that someone has to do something, otherwise we're going to continue down the road we're on, the one that leads to Mordor.
If we keep spending at this rate, Japan and China will stop buying our bonds. They don't even need to stop. If they slow down, we're screwed. We have already started to print money to make up for spending. China is facing a property bubble and it's own debt, and I don't think we even need to address Japan's problems.
Deflation can be cured by printing, but we have pending decreases in the value of the dollar based on all of the wonderful factors that make up our "new" economy, and increased federal spending, we become more reliant on foreign debt. Pimping our economy to foreign investors, gives them the right to "B!tch-slap" us at any time, and puts us at the mercy of their economic decision making.
You are correct, demand is down, and if that were the only factor, some delicate adjustment in volume would work. I do not subscribe to the "Stimulus" thing because we do not live in a closed loop. When the government spends it is borrowing from you and me, or it is borrowing from other countries and stealing the interest from you and me.
Ultimately you have to pay the piper.
Quote from: Gaspar on August 25, 2010, 01:46:35 PM
Deflation can be cured by printing, but we have pending decreases in the value of the dollar based on all of the wonderful factors that make up our "new" economy, and increased federal spending, we become more reliant on foreign debt. Pimping our economy to foreign investors, gives them the right to "B!tch-slap" us at any time, and puts us at the mercy of their economic decision making.
There's very little attention paid to their reliance on us. As is everything in supply/demand relationships, they need us as much as we need them. We're providing them with one of the most stable and lucrative investments in the world (yes, still), as well as an incredibly rich and mature market into which they can dump their products.
I'm not condoning the structure of the relationship, and don't believe it's sustainable, though don't think it will end quite as catastrophically as others seem to. Mostly because the Chinese still need someone to offer them good debt to buy, and a market that will help them sustain the growth that their political system has become reliant on.
I think, too, that the recession has encouraged us to do some of the right things to rebalance that relationship: address good debt vs bad debt (on public, private, corporate, and individual bases) rethink our obsession with consumer goods . . . and the mistake of thinking of our houses as the biggest consumer good of them all.
One of the things we're losing in the "reduce the deficit at all costs" conversation is that, much like the migration from fossil fuels to renewables, we're not gonna get there tomorrow . . . or with catastrophic cuts in anything.
Index Last Change
I:DJI 10067.4 +26.95 +0.27%
INX 1055.93 +4.06 +0.39%
SPX.X 1056 +4.13 +0.39%
The wails about our debt load are another red herring. Our debt as a percentage of GDP really isn't problematic, it's really not even close.
Our debt load is only 47th in the world, it's only 2/3 the size of Germany's or Canada's for instance, and they aren't in trouble either. Our debt load is less than half of countries with real issues like Greece. We would have to rack up another 5-6 Trillion in debt with no growth before we are in trouble.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
Quote from: Gaspar on August 25, 2010, 01:46:35 PM
If we keep spending at this rate, Japan and China will stop buying our bonds. They don't even need to stop. If they slow down, we're screwed. We have already started to print money to make up for spending. China is facing a property bubble and it's own debt, and I don't think we even need to address Japan's problems.
Deflation can be cured by printing, but we have pending decreases in the value of the dollar based on all of the wonderful factors that make up our "new" economy, and increased federal spending, we become more reliant on foreign debt. Pimping our economy to foreign investors, gives them the right to "B!tch-slap" us at any time, and puts us at the mercy of their economic decision making.
You are correct, demand is down, and if that were the only factor, some delicate adjustment in volume would work. I do not subscribe to the "Stimulus" thing because we do not live in a closed loop. When the government spends it is borrowing from you and me, or it is borrowing from other countries and stealing the interest from you and me.
Generally, stimulus pays for itself through GDP growth, and government debt is paid back with cheaper dollars. In the economic environment we have today, people are happy to hold bonds that are nearly certain to lose value, but are certain to only lose a little bit if they do. Otherwise, demand for Treasuries wouldn't be so high right now and overall interest rates wouldn't be so low. The invisible bond vigilantes are nowhere to be seen. (sub-4.5% 30 year fixed mortgages are a pretty good indicator of that one)
I agree that we can't keep using stimulus forever, but I don't think fiddling while Rome burns is a viable option, either. It's a matter of doing thing thing that's less bad, as there aren't many good options out there at the moment.
posted by nathanm
"or start another war, among other things that would create demand."
See, Bush, had a plan for the economy.
Worked pretty well for a while.... Made he and Mister Chaney a truckload of cash.
Now George enjoys his wealth... in a house next door to Ted Nugent.
The American Dream.
The FAZ and FAS briefly intersected today. But then the market sprung back up.
Its seems the battle-line is drawn at Dow 10,000.
Sooner or later this year, I predict, the battle will be lost. Dow at 8,000 by December is my prediction.
Inflated home prices and easy credit are gone. What is going to get us back up in the short term? This recession was never allowed to complete its cycle the first time around. Hence, the double-dip we are entering into now.
No more bail outs, no more artificial bubbles. Lets just let it crash and pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and start over. After the double-dip, Dow should get back to 14,000 in about 10 years if this country gets its act together.
Quote from: Hawkins on August 25, 2010, 08:10:01 PM
Sooner or later this year, I predict, the battle will be lost. Dow at 8,000 by December is my prediction.
Well aren't you a bundle of good news. Gosh I hope you are wrong.
Quote from: Hawkins on August 25, 2010, 08:10:01 PM
The FAZ and FAS briefly intersected today. But then the market sprung back up.
Its seems the battle-line is drawn at Dow 10,000.
Sooner or later this year, I predict, the battle will be lost. Dow at 8,000 by December is my prediction.
Inflated home prices and easy credit are gone. What is going to get us back up in the short term? This recession was never allowed to complete its cycle the first time around. Hence, the double-dip we are entering into now.
No more bail outs, no more artificial bubbles. Lets just let it crash and pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and start over. After the double-dip, Dow should get back to 14,000 in about 10 years if this country gets its act together.
It's interesting. My cubemate and I have this ongoing argument. He subscribes to your view: not that Dow will hit 8k, necessarily but that the whole thing should've been allowed to run its course. That we let everything crash to the ground, pick up the pieces, and start again. If it's a Depression the country needs then it's a Depression the country gets, etc.
I spend most of my free time googling first hand accounts and photos of the Great Depression to jog him back to reality with accounts of what it was like. I mean, the Great Depression lasted ten years and throughout most of that period, unemployment was 15% and above (peaking at just below 25%). There was mass dislocation, vast squatter camps, and troops of nomads going from area to area looking for work (Okies, anyone?). Riots were regular occurrences and poverty was widespread. And because it was so deep and so long, all kinds of interesting alternative economic and political movements were born -- like modern Communism, Naziism . . . Fascism in all of its lovely forms.
But we forget that these things came about because the system that exists was failing so spectacularly. They didn't just take the world by storm because there were enough latently evil or careless people around to take up those banners. They took the world by storm because people thought these would work better than a decade of global failure.
And lest we forget, the Great Depression led directly to WWII and tens of millions dead worldwide.
So anyway, my constant point to my cubemate is, be careful what you wish for. A nice cleansing Depression sounds great on paper, but something of that magnitude would be far from pretty, and I can guarantee that you (and I, everyone on this board) wouldn't come out unscathed.
Quote from: Hawkins on August 25, 2010, 08:10:01 PM
No more bail outs, no more artificial bubbles. Lets just let it crash and pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and start over.
I think before making a pronouncement that a crash will refactor the economy in an appropriate manner for a resumption of growth, you need to study Japan's lost decade.
And we vs us's point about a poor economy leading to undesirable politics is a good one. Economic dislocation caused by reparations and forced disindustrialization was the primary reason the Nazis were able to gain power in Germany. Repetition of that cycle is certainly an option, but not a particularly appealing one.
There is nothing good about a protracted cycle of deflation, which is essentially the meat of a long term depression.
Quote from: nathanm on August 25, 2010, 05:00:48 PM
Generally, stimulus pays for itself through GDP growth, and government debt is paid back with cheaper dollars. In the economic environment we have today, people are happy to hold bonds that are nearly certain to lose value, but are certain to only lose a little bit if they do. Otherwise, demand for Treasuries wouldn't be so high right now and overall interest rates wouldn't be so low. The invisible bond vigilantes are nowhere to be seen. (sub-4.5% 30 year fixed mortgages are a pretty good indicator of that one)
I agree that we can't keep using stimulus forever, but I don't think fiddling while Rome burns is a viable option, either. It's a matter of doing thing thing that's less bad, as there aren't many good options out there at the moment.
Very dependent on what your definition of stimulus is. President Obama's dumpster of new programs topped with Obamacare and sprinkled with the promise of new regulation and higher taxes for producers is not my definition. Pushing us to 13 Trillion in debt via programs that have no real long term return, but rather require long term funding ain't gonna do it.
Another surprise helps the market.
Tomorrow will be something else...Hell, this afternoon.
QuoteNEW YORK — Stocks rose moderately Thursday after a drop in claims for unemployment benefits relieved some worries about slowing economic growth.
The Labor Department said claims for unemployment benefits fell to 473,000 last week, after claims climbed above 500,000 for the first time since November a week earlier. Economists were expecting a more modest drop to 490,000, according to Thomson Reuters.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38862352/ns/business-stocks_and_economy (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38862352/ns/business-stocks_and_economy)
Quote from: we vs us on August 25, 2010, 09:30:19 PM
...throughout most of that period, unemployment was 15% and above (peaking at just below 25%).
I happen to agree that it should have been allowed to run it's course...in 2001 instead of propping it up and we'd be long past the pain. Instead, permissive lending kept the machine running.
Just curious if anyone knows, how was U/E measured in those days? Was it total people out of work or only those still looking like the metrics we use now?
Quote from: Townsend on August 26, 2010, 08:55:01 AM
Another surprise helps the market.
Tomorrow will be something else...Hell, this afternoon.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38862352/ns/business-stocks_and_economy (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38862352/ns/business-stocks_and_economy)
A brief stay of execution ;)
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-hindenburg-omen-is-scary-but-so-are-the-fundamentals-535367.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,XLF,FXE,XHB,TLT,GLD
"Hindenburg Omen"
After tumbling below 10,000 yet again Wednesday morning, the Dow rebounded to close above that psychologically important level and was slightly higher early Thursday. Still, fear in the market is being expressed by the continued rally in Treasuries and widespread chatter about an ominous sounding technical indicator: The Hindenburg Omen.
The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987, meaning it's far from infallible but isn't inconsequential either. The indicator's creator, mathematician Jim Miekka, compares the Hindenburg Omen to a funnel cloud that precedes a tornado in a recent interview with The WSJ. "It doesn't mean [the market's] going to crash, but it's a high probability," he said.
Complex and esoteric even in the world of technical indicators, the Hindenburg Omen is triggered when the following occurs, Zero Hedge reports:
-- The daily number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.2% of total NYSE issues traded that day.
-- The NYSE's 10-week moving average is rising.
-- The McClellan Oscillator (a technical measure of "overbought" vs. "oversold" conditions) is negative on that same day.
-- New 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52-week lows. This condition is absolutely mandatory.
These criteria have been hit twice since Aug. 12, prompting Miekka to get out of the market entirely, The WSJ reports. Judging by the recent market action, many others are following suit -- or at least moving in the same direction.
Worry List Lengthens
As Henry and I discuss in the accompanying clip, there are a lot of reasons to be worried right now that having nothing to with The Hindenburg Omen, the "Death Cross", Mercury being in retrograde or myriad other indicators cited by market pundits of various stripes.
More fundamental reasons to be concerned include:
It's the Economy, Stupid: This week's weak durable goods and home sales reports are just the latest in a string of desultory data. In sum, the macroeconomic data strongly suggest the job market isn't going to improve anytime soon. And if the job market doesn't improve, there's really not much hope for a turnaround in housing, consumer sales or anything else really. Oh, and the stock market is still expensive on a cyclically adjusted P/E basis, making it more vulnerable to an economic slowdown.
Unusual Uncertainty: On July 21, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill that the Fed's forecast called for real GDP growth of 3%-3.5% for 2010 and 3.5%-4.5% in 2011 and 2012. Less than a month later, the Fed announced plans to buy Treasuries again (a.k.a. "QE2") and, as The WSJ reported this week, there's a tremendous amount of dissention within the Fed about the 'right' policy prescription.
Financial Follies: Whether it's renewed concerns about Europe's sovereign debt crisis, more U.S. bank closures or reports of commercial developers walking away from properties, it's clear the problems in the financial system were not resolved by various and sundry bailouts and government stimulus ... not by a long shot.
Good Politics vs. Good Economics: S&P's downgrade of Ireland's debt and Greece's revenue shortfall show the short-term perils of the austerity measures that have swept Europe. But promising to cut government spending and slash deficits appears to be a winning political strategy in America right now. Certainly, it's a key message of Republican and Tea Party candidates, who appear to have the momentum heading into the November mid-term elections. But if Europe's 'PIIGS' are any example, gridlock might not be so "good" for the economy this time around, much less the financial markets.
Of course, the "good" news here is that there's so much to worry about and the markets typically are darkest just before dawn.
I think one should take a longer look at the marketplace. If your retirement fund is invested in stocks, a good length of inspection would be ten years ago.
Remember ten years ago, Bill Clinton was still President and the tech bubble was bursting. The Dow Jones industrial average was hovering just over 10,000 points.
Ten years later, the Dow Jones is still hovering around 10,000 points. There have been spectacular highs and lows. Lows of 7,500 a year and a half into the Bush Presidency and a low of 6,600 a half a year into the Obama years were stressed, but highs of 14,000 about a year before the last election were good times.
Historically, the Dow traditionally has a good year in the twelve months leading up to a Presidential election and a poor year in the immediate earlier twelve month period.
All that being said, We haven't really made any money on stock investments in the last ten years but haven't lost any as well. 2011 might be a tough year, but 2012 will be a year to make it all back and maybe more.
and it's down today.
Index Last Change
I:DJI 10016.69 -134.26 -1.32%
INX 1049.37 -15.22 -1.43%
SPX.X 1049.44 -15.15 -1.42%
QuoteNEW YORK — Stocks ended lower Monday after further signs of slowing growth added to caution ahead of the government's crucial jobs report later in the week.
A report Monday showed personal income rose less than expected in July, adding to the string of data that points toward a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38914908/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38914908/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy)
and the market is up today...254 points...
Must have been the Obama speech last night.
Market up again?
Since Gaspar and I made our bet the market has risen 400 points.
I can't drink 12 bottles of Marshall's by myself...I will have to invite some of you guys to help...
Market up again...the fifth time in six tradings days in September so far.
Come on 11,000. Who's drinking with me?
^^
Hold that thought until October is here and gone.
Dow is up 127 points today and is currently at 10,734. It's now getting really close to that 11,000 mark.
I:DJI 10765.12 +157.27 +1.48%
I:COMP 2356.97 +41.36 +1.79%
SPX.X 1143.9 +18.31 +1.63%
500 points in three weeks is pretty good. The market has been up 11 of 13 trading days of September.
I expect a drop early next week. The pundits will all have some reason why, but I think it will be for people to pay their bookies after this weekend's football upsets.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 21, 2010, 04:42:28 PM
500 points in three weeks is pretty good. The market has been up 11 of 13 trading days of September.
Pretty good, that's freakin awesome. Especially after I saw my August portfolio statement. I am at a complete loss as to the rollercoaster ride of recent.
Quote from: guido911 on September 21, 2010, 06:00:32 PM
Pretty good, that's freakin awesome. Especially after I saw my August portfolio statement. I am at a complete loss as to the rollercoaster ride of recent.
I told you that you could make some damn good money betting against Gaspar.
To be fair to him, the media is often if not usually wrong about the markets. By the time they report a trend, it's over. The people that seem to always get burned investing are the ones that get their investment advice from the TV.
Quote from: swake on September 21, 2010, 06:09:31 PM
I told you that you could make some damn good money betting against Gaspar.
To be fair to him, the media is often if not usually wrong about the markets. By the time they report a trend, it's over. The people that seem to always get burned investing are the ones that get their investment advice from the TV.
Note to self, do the opposite of Gaspar's investment advice. :)
Gaspar was just sharing what others were saying. I saw the stories and pundits saying the exact same as him at the same time.
That is why I went against the advice. Anytime I see crowds going one direction, I head the other way.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 21, 2010, 08:56:01 PM
That is why I went against the advice. Anytime I see crowds going one direction, I head the other way.
You'd be toast in Godzilla movies.
Something else has/is happening to the market:
People aren't near as concerned about building long-term equity in corporations as they are with a) making relatively quick and easy wealth or b) protecting their assets in falling markets.
Our parents and grandparents invested in the market for long-term growth and pretty well ignored daily market fluctuations. The advent of on-line trading has made it a more treacherous investment world for everyone. Back when you had to use a broker to make your buy and sell orders, you also got a dose of caution or advice prior to placing your order. Now people can and do trade on raw emotion of the moment. If the market opens 100 points down from the previous trading day, sheeple start selling like mad to avoid a loss or to take a profit which puts further downward pressure on stocks.
That's why a lot of the market shake-ups defy previously-held logic. With fluctuations in the 500 to 1000 point range, there's plenty of room to buy and sell shares relatively safely, and make tidy profits even after short term cap gains taxes. It's a day-trader's dream right now.
Quote from: Conan71 on September 22, 2010, 09:23:31 AM
Something else has/is happening to the market:
People aren't near as concerned about building long-term equity in corporations as they are with a) making relatively quick and easy wealth or b) protecting their assets in falling markets.
Our parents and grandparents invested in the market for long-term growth and pretty well ignored daily market fluctuations. The advent of on-line trading has made it a more treacherous investment world for everyone. Back when you had to use a broker to make your buy and sell orders, you also got a dose of caution or advice prior to placing your order. Now people can and do trade on raw emotion of the moment. If the market opens 100 points down from the previous trading day, sheeple start selling like mad to avoid a loss or to take a profit which puts further downward pressure on stocks.
That's why a lot of the market shake-ups defy previously-held logic. With fluctuations in the 500 to 1000 point range, there's plenty of room to buy and sell shares relatively safely, and make tidy profits even after short term cap gains taxes. It's a day-trader's dream right now.
And actually, it's not just sheeple. It's actual trading algorithms and bot programs that execute trades.
Literally, AIs are responsible for a lot of our current market volatility.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 21, 2010, 08:56:01 PM
Gaspar was just sharing what others were saying. I saw the stories and pundits saying the exact same as him at the same time.
That is why I went against the advice. Anytime I see crowds going one direction, I head the other way.
I'm actually quite happy with the advances the market has been making in the past couple of weeks. I don't mind being wrong when it's making me money. Your Milwaukee's Best is cooling in the beer fridge.
It was Milwaukee's Best wasn't it? ;)
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 25, 2010, 10:33:00 AM
We have a bet.
12 bottles of Marshall's it is.
Depends on how you spell Milwaukee. I think you got the "M" correct.
Way up again today. It's up 175 now standing at 10837
Quote from: swake on September 24, 2010, 10:51:03 AM
Way up again today. It's up 175 now standing at 10837
There's finally some good news to get excited about. A rise in orders for machinery and computers certainly signals some optimism in the economy. This is the sort of news which starts to inspire confidence in hiring, not a 3% tax cut, not stimulus spending to pet
donors, er projects.
"Durable goods orders in August fell 1.3%, though less the volatile transportation sector, orders for U.S. goods actually rose 4.1%. A steep drop in aircraft orders contributed heavily to the decline.
Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods orders had their best month in five in August.
Factory orders for machinery jumped 3.9% in August, compared to a steep 9.6% drop the prior month. Computers also saw strong demand with orders rising 12% while communications equipment saw a 9.2% gain.Economists have been worried that July's drop in durable goods orders would repeat itself in August, signaling serious problems in the manufacturing sector which has driven the U.S. economy in coming out of the recession in 2009. The term "double dip recession" now appears to be off the table.
Stock futures reacted positively to the Commerce Department report with the DJIA up 107 at 10,713. The S&P 500 gained 12.7 basis points to trade at 1,133 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 22.5 to trade at 2,004 just minutes before the opening bell in New York."
http://axcessnews.com/index.php/articles/show/id/20951
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 197.84, or 1.9 percent, to close at 10,860.26. The Dow has risen 8.4 percent in September.
...and will get manipulated down for the shorts to profit at some point in the next 6 weeks
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 21, 2010, 04:42:28 PM
I expect a drop early next week. The pundits will all have some reason why, but I think it will be for people to pay their bookies after this weekend's football upsets.
As I predicted, the Dow dropped 48 points today.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on September 27, 2010, 07:37:59 PM
As I predicted, the Dow dropped 48 points today.
It's the end of the month and the quarter, so it was a pretty safe bet. The market always gets weird near quarter end when options are expiring and ETFs are rolling.
Ok so my prediction for the week is light trading and after today's 78 point drop will not go up or down more than 30 points on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.
On Friday, I predict a good jobs report and see the Dow making a couple of hundred points. We are going to be close to 11,000 on the weekend.
Getting really close.
Sitting at 10934 right now. A good jobs report later in the week should push it right over.
Is today the day the Dow breaks 11,000?
Maybe gaspar should be getting the Marshall's beers on ice...who wants a cold beer?
10,961
Quote from: RecycleMichael on October 06, 2010, 08:26:12 AM
Is today the day the Dow breaks 11,000?
Maybe gaspar should be getting the Marshall's beers on ice...who wants a cold beer?
Someone say "Marshall's"?
I'm too lazy to go look. Was the agreement to reach 11,000 or to close at or above 11,000?
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 25, 2010, 09:27:09 AM
Let's put a wager on it Gaspar.
You think the Dow will drop below 6,000.
Let's bet.
I say the Dow will be over 11,000 before it drops below 8,000.
This was the original language...
10,945...not shooting up quite yet.
Is the rising market the only national "good news" going on? Just back from Drudge and it appears that nothing positive is going on in this country.
Quote from: guido911 on October 06, 2010, 09:29:27 AM
Is the rising market the only national "good news" going on? Just back from Drudge and it appears that nothing positive is going on in this country.
Doom and gloom always sells more print. Rainbow farting unicorns are always relegated to the scene section.
10974
Quote from: Townsend on October 06, 2010, 09:34:19 AM
Rainbow farting unicorns are always relegated to the scene section.
Like Jason Ashley Wright?
10923
Quote from: Townsend on October 06, 2010, 12:05:33 PM
10923
Gaspar is selling down the market. It would be cheaper to just pay up on the bet, Gassy.
Quote from: Conan71 on October 06, 2010, 12:59:55 PM
Gaspar is selling down the market. It would be cheaper to just pay up on the bet, Gassy.
I'm guessin' you told Mike you'd help him drink it. I live closer. LOL.
Quote from: Hoss on October 06, 2010, 01:40:13 PM
I'm guessin' you told Mike you'd help him drink it. I live closer. LOL.
I'd belly-crawl for five miles over busted glass for a Marshalls.
10,968
Quote from: Townsend on October 06, 2010, 03:36:28 PM
10,968
What are you Mister Ticker now? Where's the tape come out?
Quote from: Conan71 on October 06, 2010, 03:43:12 PM
What are you Mister Ticker now? Where's the tape come out?
Oh don't be coy...you know.
This morning the Dow got to 10,998.53, then plummeted almost a hundred points.
Either Gaspar started shorting or the financial gods have it in for me.
My guess is a lot of people decided this is a good time to lock in some profits. It will eventually hit 11,000, but I'm guessing end of next week.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on October 07, 2010, 12:04:26 PM
This morning the Dow got to 10,998.53, then plummeted almost a hundred points.
Either Gaspar started shorting or the financial gods have it in for me.
I dumped 30 shares of Tupperware because I knew that would be enough to tip the market. ;)
10,997.47 @ 12:25 EDT
10,999.66 now. It was over 11,000 for a while earlier.
Quote from: nathanm on October 08, 2010, 11:26:46 AM
10,999.66 now. It was over 11,000 for a while earlier.
Careful, Gaspar will start shorting his Little Debbie shares.
I see that it hit 11016 and change at 11:30.
Now was the bet that it would hit 11,000 or close at or above 11,000?
Quote from: RecycleMichael on August 25, 2010, 08:27:09 am
Let's put a wager on it Gaspar.
You think the Dow will drop below 6,000.
Let's bet.
I say the Dow will be over 11,000 before it drops below 8,000.
Loser buys winner a case of Marshall's Beer.
Are you in?
I hate to bet on the failure of the market, but I'm in for a 12 pack (that way I can buy a case, and drink the other 12 myself to make me feel better).
12 oz!
A little vauge in the bet, but as some one with no stake in it I would have to give it to RM.
Since I'm hoping he will share, let's call it a win ;)
It is a win, and I shall make good!
I must admit, I'm not sad that I won. I'd rather see the market perform well then drop.
Hooray!
Gaspar and I will make plans and of course I will share (but bring more of your own if you plan on drinking lots).
Where can we drink in public without getting arrested?
Quote from: RecycleMichael on October 08, 2010, 12:15:30 PM
Hooray!
Gaspar and I will make plans and of course I will share (but bring more of your own if you plan on drinking lots).
Where can we drink in public without getting arrested?
Any Tulsa road construction site I think.
That was a grand slam right there...
The Dow added another 1,000 points in the last 100 days.
Good times, good times.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on January 24, 2011, 04:30:36 PM
The Dow added another 1,000 points in the last 100 days.
Good times, good times.
. . .and I still owe you that 12 pack.
I couldn't be happier to be wrong. :)
Quote from: Gaspar on January 24, 2011, 04:42:35 PM
. . .and I still owe you that 12 pack.
I couldn't be happier to be wrong. :)
I read case...
;D
Quote from: Gaspar on January 24, 2011, 04:42:35 PM
. . .and I still owe you that 12 pack.
I couldn't be happier to be wrong. :)
Whats the saying? its better to bet against America and lose than to bet for it and win? Just joking with ya. Obviously DOW has no basis on reality anyway. Although, the market seems kinda inflated. I mean how does Jobs leave Apple for a while and the stock doesn't tank?
Good Luck RM on the Super Bowl bets. Hopefully this is the first of your winning wagers.
Quote from: Trogdor on January 25, 2011, 09:31:23 AM
I mean how does Jobs leave Apple for a while and the stock doesn't tank?
My guess would be that the management infrastructure and the faith of the buyers of Apple products is the main reason. Jobs has built a solid company and reputation, and doesn't try to reinvent itself (Microsoft) every two to three years. Apple reminds me of VW in their philosophy, constant improvement over regular change.
Quote from: dbacks fan on January 25, 2011, 09:38:30 AM
My guess would be that the management infrastructure and the faith of the buyers of Apple products is the main reason. Jobs has built a solid company and reputation, and doesn't try to reinvent itself (Microsoft) every two to three years. Apple reminds me of VW in their philosophy, constant improvement over regular change.
They almost lost the company without him.
Quote from: Trogdor on January 25, 2011, 09:40:57 AM
They almost lost the company without him.
Yes and it was for a multitude of reasons. Here is an interesting article about how in 2000 they were in trouble, because the market turned their backs on Apple, day traders, shift in Apple philosiphy, and other factors:
http://www.asktog.com/columns/041ApplesLatestWoes.html (http://www.asktog.com/columns/041ApplesLatestWoes.html)
I predict the Dow will go down tomorrow after Obama speaks. I believe he will make the case that America is on the right track for the economy and that will scare some republican business people. He will give the American people some confidence and hope and that ain't what republicans want until they are in charge.
The republican response will probably be given from Chicken Little who will say the sky is falling.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on January 25, 2011, 10:57:35 AM
I predict the Dow will go down tomorrow after Obama speaks. I believe he will make the case that America is on the right track for the economy and that will scare some republican business people. He will give the American people some confidence and hope and that ain't what republicans want until they are in charge.
The republican response will probably be given from Chicken Little who will say the sky is falling.
I don't really care what the standard Republican response will be, that's not going to be where the entertainment value is going to be. Has everyone heard that Michelle Bachmann is going give her own "Tea Party" response. That's going to be just an awesome bucket of crazy. It's going to be on CNN at least, if not more channels.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2011/01/gop_aides_irked_with_cnn_for_a.html
She's really under the impression that she is a viable candidate for President. Pricless.
Quote from: swake on January 25, 2011, 11:09:42 AM
She's really under the impression that she is a viable candidate for President. Pricless.
entertained by the Freudian at the end there...
Quote from: Townsend on January 25, 2011, 11:20:44 AM
entertained by the Freudian at the end there...
And it wasn't even stopped by the content filter
Quote from: swake on January 25, 2011, 11:51:18 AM
And it wasn't even stopped by the content filter
I had to go back and re-read it. I guess I was looking at it and the mind took it for priceless instead.
I missed it too. I'm going to blame my progressive bi-focal glasses.
Quote from: RecycleMichael on January 25, 2011, 10:57:35 AM
I predict the Dow will go down tomorrow after Obama speaks. I believe he will make the case that America is on the right track for the economy and that will scare some republican business people. He will give the American people some confidence and hope and that ain't what republicans want until they are in charge.
The republican response will probably be given from Chicken Little who will say the sky is falling.
With it closing in on 12,000 some investors are going to take profits and since it was edging that way, there were probably people waiting to cash in some investments after it rolled to a new tax year since they won't have to pay taxes on these profits until next year. They might also be thinking the market will settle some later in the year and it becomes a wash.
It's all positves, and we are definitely seeing major improvement from where I sit.
Man, has the Tea Party ever broken up all that traditional Republican party discipline! I have to say, I would've never imagined a schism like this . . . to such a degree that sitting members of congress feel comfortably making competing rebuttals. And not only that, but that Bachmann just CHOSE herself to be that spokesperson. No one actually nominated her, or asked her to do it as an official member of the Tea party or anything like that. She just set this whole thing up herself, and because she's the only person who did it, she'll be considered the Voice of the Tea Party.
It just points up how completely headless the GOP is at the moment, and how compromised the current leadership really is. They can't stop a nutjob like Bachmann from upstaging them and driving policy further right simply because she jumped first.
Boy do we live in interesting times.
Quote from: we vs us on January 25, 2011, 12:56:05 PM
Man, has the Tea Party ever broken up all that traditional Republican party discipline! I have to say, I would've never imagined a schism like this . . . to such a degree that sitting members of congress feel comfortably making competing rebuttals. And not only that, but that Bachmann just CHOSE herself to be that spokesperson. No one actually nominated her, or asked her to do it as an official member of the Tea party or anything like that. She just set this whole thing up herself, and because she's the only person who did it, she'll be considered the Voice of the Tea Party.
It just points up how completely headless the GOP is at the moment, and how compromised the current leadership really is. They can't stop a nutjob like Bachmann from upstaging them and driving policy further right simply because she jumped first.
Boy do we live in interesting times.
(http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSLL3x09ogrolJ11xEx4VSxgwiXiCJwnR0M1j8I70EI4cjI3qas)
Can you read his mind?
Quote from: Townsend on January 25, 2011, 01:10:24 PM
(http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSLL3x09ogrolJ11xEx4VSxgwiXiCJwnR0M1j8I70EI4cjI3qas)
Can you read his mind?
Can't you just feel the love?
Quote from: swake on January 25, 2011, 01:18:14 PM
Can't you just feel the love?
Perfect photo to play 'cartoon bubble this' with.
M'kay, I really don't follow Michele Bachman. I'm assuming she must be halfway bright as I hear libs tearning her down at any chance so she must be a threat. I'm beginning to assume when a female is ascending on the right, the left will simply bat them down as being uppity or crazy.
Someone care to specifically name some things which makes them view her as crazy, aside from filtered Koz or HuffPo puffery? I've heard brief snippets of her on the radio and haven't heard anything which tripped my radar.
Quote from: Conan71 on January 25, 2011, 02:46:33 PM
I'm beginning to assume when a female is ascending on the right, the left will simply bat them down as being uppity or crazy.
That happens on all sides. No matter with whom the ascending female is associated.
Quote from: Conan71 on January 25, 2011, 02:46:33 PM
M'kay, I really don't follow Michele Bachman. I'm assuming she must be halfway bright as I hear libs tearning her down at any chance so she must be a threat. I'm beginning to assume when a female is ascending on the right, the left will simply bat them down as being uppity or crazy.
Someone care to specifically name some things which makes them view her as crazy, aside from filtered Koz or HuffPo puffery? I've heard brief snippets of her on the radio and haven't heard anything which tripped my radar.
She's not a threat, she's just a striving loony right wing birther who is trying really hard to make herself seem the leader of the Tea Party. She's a joke is what she is. And the house Republican leadership hate her much more than than the left does. She's a gold mine for the left.
Quote from: Townsend on January 25, 2011, 02:52:35 PM
That happens on all sides. No matter with whom the ascending female is associated.
I've heard Hillary Clinton called a "raging liberal", "mangina", "untrustworty", biznitch, etc. I've never heard her referred to as "crazy", or a "nutjob". Have you? The 1/2 term gov also gets the crazy and nutjob labels with predictable regularity.
Quote from: swake on January 25, 2011, 02:59:59 PM
She's not a threat, she's just a striving loony right wing birther who is trying really hard to make herself seem the leader of the Tea Party. She's a joke is what she is. And the house Republican leadership hate her much more than than the left does. She's a gold mine for the left.
Okay, two replies so far and zero specifics. It's sort of like asking for three specific things President Obama has done to improve the economy in the last six months. No one seems to be able to answer that.
Next? Anyone have specifics or are we going to keep listing generalizations I can get from MSNBC, Koz, and HuffPo? I can source my own talking points if that's what I'm looking for.
Quote from: Conan71 on January 25, 2011, 03:03:16 PM
Okay, two replies so far and zero specifics. It's sort of like asking for three specific things President Obama has done to improve the economy in the last six months. No one seems to be able to answer that.
Next? Anyone have specifics or are we going to keep listing generalizations I can get from MSNBC, Koz, and HuffPo? I can source my own talking points if that's what I'm looking for.
She's been accused of murder.
QuoteLimbaugh again suggested Hillary Clinton had Vincent Foster murdered
http://mediamatters.org/research/200509210002 (http://mediamatters.org/research/200509210002)
http://www.stewwebb.com/Hillary_Clinton_Murders_March_27_2007.htm (http://www.stewwebb.com/Hillary_Clinton_Murders_March_27_2007.htm)
Quote from: Conan71 on January 25, 2011, 03:03:16 PM
Okay, two replies so far and zero specifics. It's sort of like asking for three specific things President Obama has done to improve the economy in the last six months. No one seems to be able to answer that.
Next? Anyone have specifics or are we going to keep listing generalizations I can get from MSNBC, Koz, and HuffPo? I can source my own talking points if that's what I'm looking for.
Well, if it's not odd enough that she's appointed herself as spokewoman for the Tea Party and is going to give her own response to the State of the Union, there's this item from just this week where she tries to rewrite the American history of slavery:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2011/01/25/2011-0125_anderson_cooper_rips_gop_rep_michele_bachmann_over_comments_on_slavery_diversity.html
She was the one that claimed that Obama's trip to India was going to cost $200 million a day
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/michele-bachmann-accuses-obama-administrat
When Obama was running for president she accused him of being UnAmerican along with other members of congress and says that they should be investigated:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27243547#27243547
She called on people to not complete the census:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/17/exclusive-minn-lawmaker-fears-census-abuse/
There's tons more too
Quote from: Conan71 on January 25, 2011, 03:01:35 PM
I've heard Hillary Clinton called a "raging liberal", "mangina", "untrustworty", biznitch, etc. I've never heard her referred to as "crazy", or a "nutjob". Have you? The 1/2 term gov also gets the crazy and nutjob labels with predictable regularity.
I think neither are crazy or nutjobs, they both have a deep desire to lead this country. . .just in different directions.
(http://www.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID1417/images/0b3bd641-4f17-43b0-b9ae-b2599056ef9b.jpg)
Very different directions.
Blindly partisan, yes. Great at spewing conservative pap, yep. Crazy, or nutjob? Only in the editorialized opinion of one of the bloggers you posted. Sorry I'm just not seeing anything more that makes her crazy than "We need to pass this bill to see what's in it" or "Unemployment benefits are great for the economy."
I have no clue where the rumor started the trip to India cost $200mm per day, but apparently it was somewhere in the media if you actually read the entirety of the Cooper piece.
Don't waste your time Googling trying to come up with more stories. I can enter "Michele Bachman, crazy" or any other number of strings to come up with all sorts of articles and post them without reading them if that's what I asked for. I really don't see how taking leadership upon herself in providing a Tea Party response to SOTU is crazy. The Tea Party is a faction of rogue conservatives, she's a rogue conservative not staying in step with the rest of the GOP. "Crazy" has been a consistent buzzword the left has used to try and discredit the Tea Party from day one.
So libs will continue to call those they don't agree with crazy and cons will continue to call those they don't agree with stupid.
According to this the only way you can se her will be to watch it streamed on the tea party website.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2011/01/michele-bachmann-delivering-he.html (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2011/01/michele-bachmann-delivering-he.html)
And FWIW here is an interview with her by Chris Mathews from '08:
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/rep_michele_bachmann_tells_chr.html (http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/rep_michele_bachmann_tells_chr.html)
Quote from: dbacks fan on January 25, 2011, 03:46:00 PM
According to this the only way you can se her will be to watch it streamed on the tea party website.
Well, than this shouldn't be any concern to anyone, huh?
Quote from: Gaspar on January 25, 2011, 04:11:50 PM
Well, than this shouldn't be any concern to anyone, huh?
You mean other than if your concern is she's crazy as a loon and has a position of power?
I'd heard CNN was broadcasting her response.
Anybody in here have the foresight to buy some Dollar/Thrifty around Feb. of 2009.....
Just broke 12,000
Quote from: Breadburner on January 25, 2011, 09:27:02 PM
Anybody in here have the foresight to buy some Dollar/Thrifty around Feb. of 2009.....
I was going to buy 10,000 shares but chickened out figuring I didn't need to risk losing $7K or so at the time. Makes me sick now. I should have known they could pull it out as quick as they responded after 9/11 to keep solvent. Hindsight.
Quote from: Townsend on January 26, 2011, 09:25:56 AM
Just broke 12,000
And by comparison gold is down about $100.00 from the first part of December. So is this an indicator that people are taking their money out of gold and putting it into stocks?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41241175 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/41241175)
Quote from: dbacks fan on January 26, 2011, 09:44:17 AM
And by comparison gold is down about $100.00 from the first part of December. So is this an indicator that people are taking their money out of gold and putting it into stocks?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41241175 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/41241175)
(http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT2arcRqbtIckgFF3Um7-vyYeZot5GMXKss8-dd292VpvpSYEog)
Quote from: Townsend on January 26, 2011, 09:25:56 AM
Just broke 12,000
My prediction stands that at the end of the day the Dow will be down.
The early rise was giggly democrats.