DJI 4000
That's my prediction. In pretty much a worst-case scenario.
Bush's fault.
quote:
Originally posted by guido911
Bush's fault.
Bush certainly has his share of this, but it's not about blaming anyone. It's intended to be about making utterly arbitrary and useless predictions.
And backing them up with BS.
Personally, I think there are many bargains out there now. But I think good ole' fashioned panic will keep the DJIA on the decline for a time being. American companies have the freedom to fire workers, take baths, and do what they need to in order to survive. While this incites panic it is akin to your toes going numb on a cold day - discomfort now in order to save your body for the future.
So, I think the DOW has significant downside left. I also am confidently keeping my money in betting on the United States to rebound from a Global Recession faster than any other country, just as we did in the 1890's, 1920's, 1950's, and again in the 1980's.
Using the DOW Dividend Theory you get a downside of 5,140 - 4,100. Personally, I see the 6000 mark as a significant obstacle. So my guess is 5,830 then it bounces back to just over 6K and flounders until profits show up again.
Wherever the bottom is, I hope it hits in the next couple weeks so I can pump in the rest of my 401K money.
I'm buying now, and all the way down. Staying in major index ETFs for safety and dividends. May take a few years, but it'll pay off.
I'm slightly concerned about the "tech bubble", which vanished a while ago. Without the gains it made in the late 1990s, and with no "new" thing since really, and with the industrial/manufacturing losses earlier this decade, banking still in shambles; 4000 might be possible. I'd hope, that would be a near absolute floor; and we wouldn't go anywhere near it.
6000, it probably would have a tough time staying below that.
That Fear: people need to know that at least the major indexes will come back. It may take 5 or 10 years, but if ya don't need the money now; get in.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EFA
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VTI
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IYM
I'm avoiding IYR like the plague. For now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IYR
I think this is an opportunity for Obamanomics. Last week he said he would cut the deficit in half by 2011. People cheered, cried, and fainted.
Of course he didn't mention that he was going to raise it by 5 trillion, and then cut it back by 2.5 trillion. Magically a 2.5 trillion dollar increase in the deficit becomes a 50% reduction. Brilliant!
He proposed an Iraq timeline that would "Remove our fighting forces by August 2010." Leaving a contingent of 50,000 soldiers. This is more or less what was layed out by Petraeus in the initial serge strategy with a new date attached. He gave a very clear and distinct August 31st deadline that and then added (almost under his breath) "these dates may require adjustment depending on conditions on the ground." Magically the same strategy becomes the new strategy for withdraw.
(I must admit, I view this as a very good strategy, certainly beats the withdraw & surrender he promised during the election).
Brilliant!
So now I predict he will make the statement that his administration is going to take steps to bring the stock market up by 50% over the next 6 years. He could then fail to mention that this would be measured from the base (probability somewhere in the 5,500 range). Magically a 20% to 30% plunge in the market becomes a 50% increase.
Brilliant!
Brilliant!
Brilliant!
At least the Obamas are enjoying the recession:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D96M09BO0&show_article=1
Why does "The Nation" have an award for pop music?
Some gold shills are trying to scare people with a 5000 Dow scenario. I was thinking 6000 might be the floor, but then again, two months ago I'd have said "never below 7K ever again".
I started buying the first of the year, and there's still not a stock I'll be sorry I own in 5-10 years. At least not any that I put a ton into. Granted, if I would have started buying this morning, I could have bought at another 25% to 30% discount on the significant ones I've bought. I've directed my IRA contributions and employer match go into a money market within the IRA for the time being until things calm down.
Savings yields are plummeting as well. ING was offering 2.75% in Dec, it went to 2.5% last month, now it's 1.87%. Passbook savings at my bank is .35% Is that a "yikes" or "pancakes"???
quote:
Originally posted by Gaspar
He proposed an Iraq timeline that would "Remove our fighting forces by August 2010." Leaving a contingent of 50,000 soldiers. This is more or less what was layed out by Petraeus in the initial serge strategy with a new date attached. He gave a very clear and distinct August 31st deadline that and then added (almost under his breath) "these dates may require adjustment depending on conditions on the ground." Magically the same strategy becomes the new strategy for withdraw.
(I must admit, I view this as a very good strategy, certainly beats the withdraw & surrender he promised during the election).
Brilliant!
You are getting your facts mixed up. Which with all the "lets forget the past" talk I hear, I understand. Obama was pushing for 16 months before the official time line was set then. He was quoted back in July of 2008 as having the possibility of plans changing based on changes in the stability of Iraq.
Obama May Slow Planned 16-Month Iraq Withdrawl July 4 2008 (//%22http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jul/04/na-obama-may-slow-planned-16-month-iraq-withdrawal/%22)
"Combat Troops" is a loose term. Neither Clinton nor Obama said that there would be 0 troops to do anything in Iraq.
From debates in March of 2008 both Clinton and Obama both.
"Both would allow an unspecified number of "residual forces" to remain to combat terrorism, protect U.S. civilians and train the Iraqi military. Both use murky terms such as "phased redeployment" that have characterized the war debate since Democrats took control of Congress two years ago, leaving unstated where the troops would be, how they would be deployed and how many is "residual." The term "combat troops" leaves a loophole for thousands of support troops."
Obviously "combat" is a loose term. The whole concept of 0 U.S. in Iraq (esp with the largest embassy in the World) was a scare tactic about how we were running away.
Even if Dems win, total Iraq exit uncertain (//%22http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/17/MN1EVK1MH.DTL&hw=clinton&sn=066&sc=340%22)
I'm buying oil stocks and hoping for the best.
The way I figure, if they're going to cut back at OPEC, and shut down all the smaller refineries here in the States, then its got to go back up, and probably a lot sharper than the Dow.
quote:
Originally posted by Hawkins
I'm buying oil stocks and hoping for the best.
The way I figure, if they're going to cut back at OPEC, and shut down all the smaller refineries here in the States, then its got to go back up, and probably a lot sharper than the Dow.
Play it safe, try investing in some muni's in stable parts of the country. I'm thinking California and Kansas.
Well this oil tactic is hit or miss.
Obama seems to think the industry is being "phased out," but I wager that its going to see a huge comeback (in demand vs. supply) in the near future.
Any opinions on American Airlines.....
quote:
Originally posted by Breadburner
Any opinions on American Airlines.....
I don't really trust airlines, including AMR. But AMR is priced very low. Don't know if AMR will survive the downturn. If it survives, don't know how long it will take for AMR to return to profitability. And, if it becomes profitable, don't know if that's sustainable.
Airlines, including AMR, are all short-term plays for me. They're too iffy in the area of profitability; way to economy-sensitive and oil-sensitive. I don't typically do short-term, I like sleeping.
Thinking short-term: I think AMR's numbers for 2009 will be abysmal. Probably worse than 2008's; which were terrible. I personally would wait.
Caveat being: maybe lower oil prices will help. I doubt it. Too much overhead, economy in shambles; bad news ahead for AMR I think.
I'm no expert. That's where I'm at on AMR, and pretty much all airlines. Best airline bet, in my opinion, is still LUV. But I would wait on LUV too.
Dow around 4500,,, oil 25$ a barrel,,,artist living under a bridge. (but at least there will be around 50 shiny new ones to pick from [:D] )
Glenn Beck predicted a 7500 DOW along time ago. He is now predicting a 5000 DOW, but also believes a 3000 DOW is probable.
And, I still keep buying. Even upped my buying a few short months ago. Thinking about upping it some more.
quote:
Originally posted by TheArtist
Dow around 4500,,, oil 25$ a barrel,,,artist living under a bridge. (but at least there will be around 50 shiny new ones to pick from [:D] )
And, the one you're living under will get fantastic murals painted on it.
[:)]
Guido:
Did you list Califor...
wait, I get it. Sarcasm.
Never mind. Move along. Nothing to see here. My "what the hell-o-meter" went off and it took a minute for my sarcasm-o-meter to catch up.
[:D]
Other than averaging down some of my buys when the Dow was at 8000 to 9000, I'm going to wait before plowing too much more into individual stocks. I'm betting cannon_fodder is happy he didn't jump on GE when I told him to. When I bought, the dividend worked out to about a 10% return. Now they've slashed the dividend (won't happen till Q3) and the stock is trading more than $5.00 less per share than when I bought it. [xx(]
BUT... that was a long-term play for me. GE is a well-run company and the value and dividends will come back. This one will be a good one to average down, I just can't seem to figure the bottom on that one.
There's been rumors that the Dow would plummet to about this level, then come up with a sucker's rally of 2000 pts or so, then fall out to the 5000 level. Just repeating what I read. I didn't start the rumor. [;)]
One must take into account what might happen if things really get bad. And, they may.
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle
One must take into account what might happen if things really get bad. And, they may.
Glenn Beck's one step ahead of you. (//%22http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,498765,00.html%22)
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
Other than averaging down some of my buys when the Dow was at 8000 to 9000, I'm going to wait before plowing too much more into individual stocks.
That's about where I'm at. Individual stocks are currently not my bag.
GE is probably strong enough and well run enough to come out of this. Probably a solid long-term play, and it's at a pre-"tech-bubble" price.
I was looking at the Great Depression, and somewhere I read that the Dow didn't beat it's pre-Depression high until 1954. 25 years. That's a long time, of course we're only at about 50% off the high right now.
quote:
Originally posted by Neptune
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71
Other than averaging down some of my buys when the Dow was at 8000 to 9000, I'm going to wait before plowing too much more into individual stocks.
That's about where I'm at. Individual stocks are currently not my bag.
GE is probably strong enough and well run enough to come out of this. Probably a solid long-term play, and it's at a pre-"tech-bubble" price.
I was looking at the Great Depression, and somewhere I read that the Dow didn't beat it's pre-Depression high until 1954. 25 years. That's a long time, of course we're only at about 50% off the high right now.
Here's one facet of today's market that we have not really touched on here. I think one reason the markets reached as high as they did, why they doubled in 12 years, why the dotcom bubble happened, and now why they are back down is largely due to the advent of on-line trading.
Think about it, how many truly educated and sophisiticated investors are there in the markets? I'm most definitely not. I don't really approach it from a scientific viewpoint, more hunch, history, a sort of a Buffett mentality of "do I understand this company or it's product?", and the occasional "what the hell" dice roll.
On-line trading opened the door for people to do their own trades without the tempering influence of a broker. Used to be, you'd call your guy down at the local Merrill Lynch office, tell him what you wanted to buy or sell. He might offer advice to hang on a little longer or recommend another issue which was more commensurate with your risk tolerance and growth goals. It's brought a lot more impulsiveness to the investment markets. People get scared, they do a huge sell-off and it dominoes.
IOW- I think this will rebound quicker than the great depression. I don't think 14,000 is within reach for another 10 years, but 10K is realistic by the end of Obamas first term, depending on how soon the recovery starts. IMO, Obama will need numbers like that to get re-elected, otherwise he will go down in history as another Carter. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the guy and more-or-less betting on him.
Ah, one more thing, the SEC would have done well by retirees and "innocent" victims of the market to rein in short-selling back in July. I'm assuming the same people who benefitted from commodity market pumping last year have been cashing in the whole way down on the Dow & S&P by shorting.
If only we knew where it is going from here. I think I've lost about $250,000. Many people are in the same boat.
The truth is the market never got back to where it should have been after the dot com bust. But oh my, 14,000 looks good now.
If we are going to have a Depression and if it is going to mirror '29 it should take it's final dive to the bottom soon. In which case you will be glad you held onto whatever cash you have. Great fortunes were made with cash in the Depression.
And what I'm reading about oil and Oklahoma makes me believe our Real Estate will hold up in spurts this year but will drop into a prolonged slump next year.
Many people are trying to find some advantage in the crisis. And of course most things will come back (though not all stocks equally) but the question is when?
Oil, of course oil will come back stronger than ever -- one of these days. And now's the time for Tulsa to broaden her niche in the oil business.
Now that the people who, at 12,000, never would have believed or admitted we were in a problem that would drive the Dow to 7,000 are saying it could go lower, we are probably near the bottom.
quote:
Originally posted by we vs us
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle
One must take into account what might happen if things really get bad. And, they may.
Glenn Beck's one step ahead of you. (//%22http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,498765,00.html%22)
Glenn Beck is your financial advisor?