President Trump- The Implications

[Conan71]

Let's keep this off personal attacks on Trump's character, prior misdeeds, etc. and focus on the issues and implications of a Trump presidency.  If you are not capable of talking about the issues, then please don't post.  I'm still rather stunned by the results last night and I've not been a Trump fan all along but he will be POTUS for the next four years and he made some pretty tall promises during his campaign.

-Immigration: Will he fulfill his promise of sealing the borders and vetting Muslim immigrants?

-Obamacare: What would happen with a full repeal, is it even possible?

-Hillary Clinton: Will there be a follow-through on continuing to investigate her email issue and allegations of pay-to-play at the CFF?

-NAFTA & TPP: What happens with a repeal of these and would it mean bringing jobs to the rust belt?

[dbacksfan 2.0]

Immigration - I hope that he finally becomes the person to follow through on reform and enforcement of the borders. I don't see people rounding illegals up and putting them on trains, that's pure BS. I think what they are going to have to do is change they pathway to become a citizen, it shouldn't take seven to ten years for a someone to become a citizen. I do agree that there needs to be a better vetting system for all immigrants you can't just target certain groups.

Obama care - Never will be gotten rid of, too massive. I believe that there needs to be changes but this is going to need an overhaul of the practices and standards of pharma, the medical industry, and the insurance companies.

NAFTA & TPP - Also something that I don't think you can just get rid of, but will be altered and changed as well as there will need to be a major change in the tax and tariff rules and laws as well as changes to the tax codes for business to give them an incentive to keep or bring work back to the US.

Hillary - If anything further is done, and I know it will, it has to be an independent non-partisan investigation (yeah I know, I'm dreaming) if there is to be any kind of resolution. And I know that regardless of the outcome, there will be a large number of people that will claim it was rigged.

[BKDotCom]

Let's ... focus on the issues

Why start now?!
/rimshot

I have no idea what's in store.   The R's control congress & senate..   I'm going to guess that repealing Obamacare will be the focus.

[PonderInc]

This is all rather hard to predict because the man is nothing if not unpredictable.  Experience teaches us that words flow from his mouth, but that doesn't mean much.  It's easy to pontificate from a podium in front of adoring crowds.  Actual governing, on the other hand is hard, as any City Councilor can tell you.  Presumably, it's harder to govern a nation when you've never even bothered to serve on the  PTA, and probably can't name all the cabinet positions.

However, to me the main concerns are:

The Supreme Court - A lousy president can be voted out of office in 4 years. The Supreme Court Justices can serve for 3 decades or more.  Uncertain whether his "list" of potential nominees was real or something he googled while sitting on the pot.  Time will tell.

Jim Inhofe in charge of the Senate Environmental Committee.  We've seen this before, but not with a trifecta of republicans in the White House, House and Senate.  If you care about the future of the planet re: that pesky "hoax" climate change, you should be terrified by a 4-year setback and general lack of interest... and possibly our last chance to make significant changes before it's absolutely too late.  Long after Inhofe kicks the bucket, we'll be suffering the consequences and starting to understand Malthusian theories of population control.

The Attorney General / Justice Department - The AG has to be confirmed by the Senate, but is appointed by the president. I worry that he will appoint someone who will be soft on corporate crime, including some of his own nefarious business cases, and hard on people of color and religious minorities (despite, you know, the Constitution). I'm not sure how this will move forward.  Presumably, he would appoint someone who would be gentle to the frauds perpetuated by Trump U and his "foundation."  After that, who knows?  We've had the luxury of a justice department that cares about equality and pursues hate crimes and organized attempts at voter suppression (despite the best efforts of the Scalia Supreme Court to eviscerate the Voting Rights Act).  I guess we'll see what the flip side looks like with a AG who stands by, whistling Dixie.

Goodbye Wall Street Regulation, hello next Great Depression.  I'm sorry, but as any mom can tell you, some rules are good for you.

And while I don't believe most Trump supporters are bad people, I am worried that so many racists and xenophobes have been "activated."  Like someone poured water in the petri dish, and, hey!  Look what popped up.  The fringe elements terrify me, and I hate to see them emboldened by the "win."

I also predict a sudden surge in Google searches for "What have we done??" and "Are you F-ing kidding me?!"  Also: "How to run for elective office?"

And, in a few years, a massive swing in the pendulum back towards sanity and competence and a democratic sweep.

[Townsend]

His first tweet that was later taken down was disconcerting.

On a mountain of skulls,
in the castle of pain,
I sat on a throne of blood!
What was will be!
What is will be no more!
Now is the season of evil!

[swake]

I expect trade wars.

Those worked so well for us in the 19th and early 20th centuries with repeated depressions.

[patric]

-Obamacare: What would happen with a full repeal, is it even possible?

-Hillary Clinton: Will there be a follow-through on continuing to investigate her email issue and allegations of pay-to-play at the CFF?

Obamacare wasnt health reform, it was meant to be health insurance reform... and it accomplished some good things despite the best efforts of the health insurance industry.  CommunityCare wants another $100 a month if I want to stay in the St. John system, and I dont see that as the presidents doing.


Hillary -- Lankford and Friends will keep the witch burning going, maybe throw in a few books.
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/elections/sen-james-lankford-says-investigations-of-hillary-clinton-will-continue/article_fe7c245c-2da2-5d99-ae93-a7edffd8f05d.html

For the purposes of this discussion, im trying to detach Trumps personality from his abilities (and its not working).
Just to accomplish the simplest tasks, is he's going to have to outsource most of his presidency to those "Washington insiders" he boasted not to be.

And while the R's currently control congress & senate, I expect a dramatic swing of the pendulum by the next election. Everyone has to sober up at some time; it will happen, and they will be pissed.

[cannon_fodder]

-Immigration: Will he fulfill his promise of sealing the borders and vetting Muslim immigrants?

No. Bush tripled spending on the border patrol and spent more building walls than anyone else, it was followed by record illegal immigration. Under Obama the border patrol was enlarged again and he deported more illegal immigrants than anyone in history, yet the problem persists. Since the 1920s we've been "fixing" the issue and never have. The giant big beautiful wall is heinously expensive and those in the know (the border patrol, for instance) don't think it will do much good.

Muslim immigrants won't be vetted more than anyone else because the US Constitution remains in effect, you can't single out a religion. You can say
"countries on the terrorist watch list."

But even then, refugees won't have any more meaningful vetting because the vetting process is already the most rigorous.  They are vetted by the UN, referred to the UN High Commission on Refugees who refers them to a country (refugees don't pick),  they are then screened by the State Department, FBI, National Counter Terrorism Center, Department of Defense & Homeland Security, an in person interview with DHS, biometric screening, and medical screening  (that we know of publicly).  The screening process takes 2 years and only 50% pass.   Of those, 2% are single males between 15 and 60 ("combat age").

https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/11/20/infographic-screening-process-refugee-entry-united-states
http://time.com/4116619/syrian-refugees-screening-process/

Immigrants arriving under this system, and indeed all immigrants, have a much lower crime rate than our native population. Will some bad people get through? Sure. Will some turn bad after getting here? Yes. But we do better now than we ever have as a country.

No one has pointed to a flaw in the system that needs to be fixed. No one has a plan or a list of more agencies to run them through. So what are we going to fix?

-Obamacare: What would happen with a full repeal, is it even possible?

No. They will "fix" it and declare it repealed, but little of consequence will be done when its all said and done. Same basic system with minor tweaks.

-Hillary Clinton: Will there be a follow-through on continuing to investigate her email issue and allegations of pay-to-play at the CFF?

Sure. The FBI and DOJ will continue to follow through, but nothing will happen. They've said twice the email activities were non criminal. The allegations of pay-to-play never really materialized in-spite of Russian help. It quietly fades away because there isn't enough there, and no one has anything to really gain by continuing to beat that drum.

-NAFTA & TPP: What happens with a repeal of these and would it mean bringing jobs to the rust belt?

TPP doesn't exist to be repealed.

NAFTA is very unlikely to be repealed. For one thing, Mexico is our #3 export market and Canada is #1. There is $560,000,000,000.00 reasons why many Americans and American businesses don't want to see a trade war break out. There's another $600,000,000,000.00 reasons why US consumers, importers, and companies with facilities in Mexico don't want to see a trade war.  We would lose tens of billions of dollars in exports, US consumers would pay tens of billions of dollars in taxes (we would pay the import tariffs at the end of the day), and US companies would lose hundreds of billions during the adjustment.

And in the end, it is for nothing. Low-wage low-skill jobs are gone. They are not coming back unless our labor competes on price, and we don't want to compete to be the cheapest.

Manufacturing is not down. It has boomed actually. Adjusted for inflation manufacturing has more than doubled since our free trade agreements with Canada and Mexico started (1987 really). Our productivity has skyrocketed, leaving laborers behind. That''s a problem, but throwing our two largest trading partners under the bus doesn't change that. Ford isn't going to close down a Mexican plant to give Detroit workers $50 an hour to bolt hubs onto Fiestas.

Also, it is simply unulikely. The US has not broken a treaty since 1866. While Donald Trump is a populist, the Republicans that are in the House and Senate remain conservatives committed to free trade. Trump has adopted the Democratic position on this issue.

Finally, this point is opposed to the point on immigration. How are you going to "return millions" of good paying jobs to the US without causing a push AND a pull for Mexican immigration to the US?

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/422725/what-donald-trump-doesnt-know-about-us-trade-kevin-d-williamson
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/news/economy/trump-nafta/
http://www.joc.com/regulation-policy/trade-agreements/us-trade-agreements/president-trump-would-face-herculean-task-abolishing-nafta_20160316.html

- - - - - -

Trump is a populist. He said what people wanted to hear. Most populists come crashing to reality quickly when it is time to govern. The ideas don't work, he won't risk failure on them.

[saintnicster]

free soda from the vending machines!

[Ed W]

Those rust belt jobs are gone for ever and will not return despite Mr. Trump's promises. The forges and mills were built largely to fight WW2. They were labor intensive unlike a modern, largely automated plant. None of the steel companies are interested except for some specialty manufacturers. Besides, the environmental regulations alone would be an impossible hurdle. You need coke (processed coal that's heated to drive off tar and other nasties) and no one wants a coke plant nearby.

There was a reason Pittsburgh was called the Smoky City back in the day, with polluted water, polluted air, and cancer clusters.

[davideinstein]

Wait, so this guy says he wants a database for Muslims and belittles women yet we can't attack his character?

Sophisticated conversations regarding him went out of the window when he got a Twitter account.

[davideinstein]

Wait, so this guy says he wants a database for Muslims and belittles women yet we can't attack his character?

Sophisticated conversations regarding him went out of the window when he got a Twitter account.

Database for Muslims. That's the issue I'll start with...

[BKDotCom]

Wait, so this guy says he wants a database for Muslims and belittles women yet we can't attack his character?

belittles women (and veterans, disabilities, not-meeting-his-idea-of-attractiveness, etc)

[erfalf]

Database for Muslims. That's the issue I'll start with...

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2015/nov/24/donald-trumps-comments-database-american-muslims/

[cannon_fodder]

If you want to talk about Muslims, then talk about why or why not you think his state proposals on Muslim immigrants will happen and what the recourse would/will be. We all know what WAS said and we have discussed your (and my) opinion on the matter. Now lets move forward, the guy has to actually govern. Lets try to discuss that.