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Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 18, 2009, 02:00:22 pm Bernanke is just full of good cheer and tidings today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-downgrades-economic-apf-14402221.html Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: guido911 on February 18, 2009, 02:19:09 pm quote: That article is clearly mistaken con man. [:P] We just had the stimulus bill pass and "The One" leading the way. Any day now we will start getting our mortgage and gas paid? Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 18, 2009, 03:14:17 pm That's the irony here, gwee doe doe (do you ever miss those days?). Congress and Obama have been touting this as creating jobs and rescuing the economy. The FED is saying:
"Fed officials anticipated that unemployment would remain "substantially" higher than normal at the end of 2011 "even absent further economic shocks." The Fed forecast calls for the jobless rate to dip to between 8 and 8.3 percent next year, and to between 7.5 and 6.7 percent in 2011. All those projections are worse than the Fed's previous estimates and would put unemployment higher than the normal range around 5 percent." This is all counter-intuitive to the bill of goods we were sold for a bill that essentially amounts to re-payment to the November election campaign donors. You would think if this stimulus was really going to work, that projections out of the FED would be better NOT worse. Mealy-mouth it all you like, Bush's fault, Obama said it would get worse before it gets better, etc. This is NOT re-assuring news, and it's aids the notion that government intervention is NOT the answer here. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Townsend on February 18, 2009, 03:27:11 pm My economics professor told the class years ago that no economist understands the economy well enough to tell you what will happen. Their job is to tell you why it happened.
Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: rwarn17588 on February 18, 2009, 03:39:54 pm It's obvious the stimulus package is meant to lessen the pain, not eliminate it altogether.
I've read varying accounts from credible sources that the nation is going to lose about $2 trillion in GNP, which is certainly catastrophic. And it's always the jobs market that recovers last during a recession. It's insane for a government to do nothing during a catastrophe. Even the Republicans wanted a stimulus plan that wasn't dramatically different in size. In approach, yes. In size, no. In government right now, there ain't no Herbert Hoovers anywhere. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: guido911 on February 19, 2009, 09:55:41 am quote: Ah, the good ol' days. There is still someone that calls me Gweedork or something though, so I have that going for me. Anyway, here's some good news, inflation is starting to kick in: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wholesale-inflation-takes-apf-14410311.html Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: nathanm on February 19, 2009, 10:00:32 am quote: Better than deflation. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: guido911 on February 19, 2009, 10:12:57 am quote: Better for who? Unemployment is on the rise (and will continue to rise for a while). How can these folks afford higher prices? Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: swake on February 19, 2009, 11:14:04 am quote: Taking a lazes-faire attitude to the economy now and letting this crisis run it’s course is exactly what the Republican president and congress did in the late 20’s and early 30’s. It created the depression and led to Republicans not being in control of congress for 60 years. Not coincidentally this period of Democratic control, the 1930s to the 1990s, saw an increase in wealth in the United States nearly unparalleled in the history of the world. Were there recessions, yes, but it’s one of, if not the longest period in the history of this nation without a depression. Deflation is catastrophic for business. Fixed costs like debt service and leases remain in place while revenue to service those costs declines due to falling demand fall. Price increases to overcome these issues are not viable in a deflationary economy like they would be in an inflationary economy. It’s a recipe for mass bankruptcies and depression. Mass bankruptcies lead to more instability in the banking system. We have since the time of Roosevelt avoided a depression largely by using Keynesian principals, it’s certainly not time to go back and try a Hoover style economic recovery plan. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: swake on February 19, 2009, 11:16:55 am Interestingly, the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t believe that it was easy credit rules or expanding low income home ownership that led to the current crisis.
It was the “Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005” introduced by Sen Grassley R-Iowa and signed by President GW Bush with complete Republican and large Democratic support (including our jack-donkey VP). A law pushed and lobbied for by the very banks that are now melting down into bankruptcy. A law vetoed by President Clinton. The reason is really simple, a person gets into trouble financially before this law could simply declare bankruptcy and lose their unsecured debt but save their home. After the law this wasn’t possible. So instead of taking a bath on $15k to $20k of credit card debt from a person, Citibank is taking a bath on their $250k mortgage. Great Plan Citi and BOA, great plan. http://www.bankruptcylawnetwork.com/2009/01/12/bapcpa-linked-one-of-the-causes-of-the-us-mortgage-meltdown/ http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?Entry=9180 Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: nathanm on February 19, 2009, 11:35:21 am quote: At the time, the senator from MBNA didn't have to be concerned about mortgages, given that the BoA merger hadn't happened yet and MBNA was only into credit cards. The law in question was great for them. Not so good for mortgage lenders, although at the time the mortgage lenders probably figured that if they had to foreclose, they could get more than the outstanding loan amount at a foreclosure sale, what with home prices increasing at the rate they were. And guido, inflation is better for everyone than deflation, unless they're interested in a prolonged economic disaster. Deflation has the unfortunate side-effect of causing investment in productive work to cease, given that waiting until next month to build a widget means that the materials to make the widget will certainly be cheaper. Or wait until next month to file that lawsuit, since the lawyer's billing rate will likely be lower. Inflation provides an incentive to invest. Deflation provides an incentive to hoard. Poor and unemployed people are hurt coming or going. One because prices go up, others because they'll have an even harder time finding or keeping a job. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 20, 2009, 09:44:56 am Clinton is saying Obama should speak more optimistially about the economy, well duh:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090220/ap_on_go_pr_wh/clinton_obama_economy Election's been over since Nov. Much of a recession is psychological. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: dbacks fan on February 20, 2009, 10:06:52 am quote: /\ +1 Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: rwarn17588 on February 20, 2009, 11:09:28 am quote: It's physical, too. There's a Route 66 businessman in New Mexico who's trying to finish a renovation of his motel, and the bank isn't releasing the money. He's got a lot of friends in the industry; he says the banks being tight-fisted with lines of credit is absolutely wrecking the economy. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 20, 2009, 11:20:23 am And why are banks being tight-fisted? When the FED keeps dumbing it down, banks won't lend to anyone who can't prove they don't need the money in the first place.
Tell people it's going to get bad, they slow down spending, companies take pre-emptive measures including lay-offs and getting rid of inventory, banks are less willing to take risks, etc. I'm not giving policies of the past a free-ride on this recession by any stretch, but how many people truly believe that looming economic doom wasn't magnified and over-played during the election? Once people hear bad news long enough, they start to believe it and act on it. A lack of definitive measures has the banking industry scared ****-less it's about to be nationalized and that's got everyone running for cover. It's still early enough in his term that President Obama can blame any bone-headed moves his crew makes at this point on the previous admin. What happened to hope?? Wasn't that a central selling point of his campaign along with "change"?? Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: rwarn17588 on February 20, 2009, 11:35:21 am Guess what. That sudden drying up of the credit markets in September-October wasn't spotted by anyone until it was actually occurring. There wasn't any exaggeration at the time because no one knew it was happening. That's why there were all these emergency meetings with the Treasury Secretary Paulson and Congress.
And how do you loosen up lines of credit when most of the big banks are insolvent? You realize this, don't you? You can't loosen up money you don't have. It's become increasingly clear that nationalization of the banks is inevitable. When you've got a Republican senator like Lindsey Graham and a former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan saying it, it's pretty obvious they don't see any other way. Conan, I know you've taken a "don't say anything bad about the economy" stance in recent years. But there comes a time to stop BSing people. Sunny optimism looks downright delusional in light of the facts. I think pragmatism is far more valuable in this situation. That's why the president has said "it's going to get worse before it gets better" but leavens it with faith that the country will recover. There's no sense in going down the Herbert Hoover-esque "Prosperity is just around the corner" when it's obviously not. Giving people false hope is worse than no hope at all. Are you starting to see why there's a stimulus package now? And do you think John McCain would have done any better with the circumstances? I don't. quote: Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 20, 2009, 12:11:03 pm McCain??? McCain was castigated for noting the fundamentals of the economy were still strong when they were. At the time GDP was still up, u/e was still in a desireable range, yet he was scalded for trying to see some good in the current economic climate.
Let's not play the "what if" game. Sen. McCain is not the President. President Obama is. We need strong leadership and optimism, and I've yet to see that. Every time Geithner or Obama opens their mouth, the market drops another 100 pts. One common complaint throughout the financial community is a total lack of transparency as to what kind of intervention the government is planning. The Dow is down over 2000 points since Nov. 4. Would it have been different w/ McCain's leadership? That's irrelevant, as that's not the way it played out. I realize other factors are at work on the markets but it doesn't show that Obama has done anything yet to inspire confidence in American business. Yes I realize other factors are in play, but as long as we can heap praise on Reagan, Clinton, or Bush for big gains or scorn for losses, we can now do the same for Obama, he's a member of that club now. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: swake on February 20, 2009, 12:28:11 pm quote: I think people are very tired of the president blowing unfounded sunshine up our collective asses. GDP numbers are very badly lagging indicators of economic health. The economy was in the crapper since long before the primaries were over, much less when McCain was still trying talk about how great the economy was while the nations largest banks and investment houses were melting down. Those melt downs don’t happen over night and should have not been a shock to anyone that was paying attention. The collapse of the stock prices for Fannie May and Freddie Mac started all the way back in April and May of 2008 and if you thought the economy was fine while Fannie and Freddie were dying, you must have been a Republican running for office. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: guido911 on February 20, 2009, 12:45:50 pm Swake, can I borrow your expression" "blowing unfounded sunshine up our collective asses"? Simply awesome.
Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: swake on February 20, 2009, 01:16:34 pm quote: As long as I get a cut of the royalties..... Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: rwarn17588 on February 20, 2009, 03:27:42 pm quote: Understatement of the century. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 20, 2009, 03:43:04 pm Care to comment on the first part of that quote?
"...but it doesn't show that Obama has done anything yet to inspire confidence in American business." That's pretty much the message Bill Clinton is putting across. Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: Conan71 on February 20, 2009, 04:06:06 pm All I'm trying to point to is that the psychological factor is very real. A President can't control the markets (maybe he can, I really don't care to start a tin foil hat conversation right now), but his actions and words can have a major effect on it in the short term. If he shows little faith or optimism, why should anyone else? Do we all really want the negativity to trickle into our own lives and cost us our jobs? I don't think so.
The markets have been in free-fall ever since the new Congress was seated after the first of the year and the inauguration on Jan. 20. People are looking for some sort of positive signs from new leadership and have had little to go on for a month now. Finally this afternoon, the WH released a statement (I'll let Clinton take credit, not my ranting [;)] ) "Fears that some major banks could be taken over by the government had driven the S&P 500 close to a 12-year low before the White House issued its most direct statement yet on banks. But even though the comments erased a sharp sell-off in bank stocks, the White House statement failed to address persistent uncertainty about how the government will rescue ailing banks. "We have had a loss in confidence because the government keeps changing its playbook, and when that happens investors don't want to put any capital into the market," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis." http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/090220/business_us_markets_stocks.html Title: Wow, Can They Beat This Down Any Harder???? Post by: shadows on February 22, 2009, 11:15:25 pm Reading through these post on the great depression one wonders where the authors of them was in the 1933-39 area. The dust storms was a contributing factor in the depression. The banks were individual owned generally. Savings and Loans were local concerns. Those funds that were loaned were provided by the depositors in their facility. These institutions operated on the margin of interest paid to the depositor and interest paid by the recipient of the loan. The country did not come out of the depression because of spending into prosperity but we started the war effort to get ready to inter into the conflict raging in Europe. All civilian production was curtailed as the government took over the allotting of all production, Civilian auto or trucks was not allowed until the 1946 models. Rubber products were under rationing. The shortage of tubes created the tubeless tires. Bread was sold in loafs what were not sliced to save the knives used to slice the bread. Shoes and most other items were available with ration stamps issued by the ration boards. There was the run on the banks by the depositors and many banks closed their doors forever.
The small amount of families that controlled the wealth got richer while the poor did the fighting. Deflation that happened was not a subject to talk about but the question was survival. There is no way to control it. After the war we entered into the building boom. The brick houses were built for between $14 and $18,000 dollars with a market value of $23 to $32,000 dollars. These aging homes after 60-70 years of deterioration has a market value of $130 to $200,000 dollars. Banks now are monopolies that control the wealth by distributing the stimulus package subject to administration cost. I have been trying to withdraw a few thousand dollars to be transferred into another account since November. This bank, one of the monopoly banks, has advised me that on March 1 that it will be completed. How do you systematically control deflation or do we just encourage the spiraling inflation without injecting some form of control? Shall we inject the Sherman anti-trust act of just wait for another brother, like General Sherman that torched the southern states to ashes clear to the ocean? |